Eminor3rd

So, batting average? 2016, High A: 151 wRC+ 2017: High A/AA: 130 wRC+/166wRC+ 2018: AA: 128 wRC+ 2019: AAA/MLB: 140 wRC+/77 wRC+ Looks like a dude who crushed the minors and struggled in 100 PA in the Majors. Weird because it took Nick Castellanos over 1,000 PA in the majors before he recorded an above average offensive line.

Generally speaking, you're right. But I think the exception to this is when the player needs to see MLB pitching to develop further.

The guy put up SUBSTANTIALLY above average offensive numbers at literally EVERY stop in the minors: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/stats?position=C/DH What are you seeing that suggests Collins has "proved he cannot hit" in the minors?

I think that works in OOTP, but realistically, and ESPECIALLY with this front office, if they go get a guy, that means they're going to give that guy the job. And the major problem is that I can't even remember the last time the White Sox developed a guy that made a relatively seamless transition to the MLB from the minors -- all their guys have to struggle and either failed or eventually figured it out at the MLB level. Is that a drafting issue, or a player development issue? Maybe it's just more common than I think it is because I don't watch other teams as closely as I do the White Sox -- but regardless, the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level. With a highly paid incumbent, I don't know how that ever happens unless the incumbent is so bad that he doesn't even deserve playing time. I acknowledge that NC is almost certainly better hitter than Collins in 2020, and probably a better hitter than Vaughn in 2021. But when you have multiple holes to fill and a "limited" budget to fill it, and when your player dev/drafting is mediocre enough that you only hit on your top talents, I feel like you need to spend your money filling the holes instead of trying to get a 1 or 2 win improvement on guys you already have. These moves reek of desperation. The White Sox went into this offseason with literally $15.333M committed to 2020. No-brainer arbitration bumped that to $37M, and Abreu bumped it up a bit more. We're being asked as fans, to be okay with Gio Gonzalez (Steamer projects 1.1 fWAR for 2020) and Dallas Keuchel (Steamer projects 2.4 fWAR for 2020) as the answer to our pitching problem. When 5 and 6 win pitchers were available and were bought by franchises that were up against the luxury tax! We traded a prospect for Nomar Mazara (Steamer projects 1.5 fWAR) with better options (including NC!) available in FA, and now we're going to pay a 2-3 win DH to block Zack Collins. These are inefficient, back-against-the-wall, win-now moves, and this is exactly the strategy that got the White Sox in enough deep shit to require a rebuild in the first place. I don't hate these players, I just want the franchise to start acting like a successful franchise. To do the things that everyone can see the elite franchises do. ESPECIALLY because we've all had to put up with bullshit the past three years in order to give them that chance.

You mean, stop being objective? I got shit on for years for defending the front office during the rebuild. Now that they've stopped making sense, I've argued the other way. I'm going to root for the team to do things that makes sense, period. I'm not gonna "be positive" or "be negative" just for the hell of it.

Alright, asshole... So what is it? Is he like JD Martinez or not? Is my "reading comprehension" a problem, or did you just say two completely opposite things? If he isn't as good, why did YOU say that he reminded you of JD? If it's about doubles instead of homers, why did YOU compare them using ONLY HOMERS? The only reason I said "not trying to be a dick" is because you argued using numbers that made SO little sense, I was afraid you'd be embarrassed when I pointed it out.

Right -- it makes no sense to look at ANY player and suggest that he is likely to end up like a historic outlier like JD Martinez. Guys like Martinez are the exception, not the rule. It COULD happen, but you COULD also win the lottery tomorrow.

Why? What makes you think that of Castellanos, as opposed to every other player in the league? How many guys in the last 20 years or so have made the kind of leap that JD Martinez made at the end of their 20s? I can think of one: Jose Bautista. And both of those guys were oversized, fringey, slap-hitting utility players that made swing changes to turn into highly disciplined, uppercut pull monsters. That doesn't describe Castellanos at all.

That just makes it worse! JD hit more homers in 200 AB than NC did in 400 AB! In the same ballpark WITHOUT the juiced ball! I'm not saying NC can't hit or that he wouldn't improve the lineup at all -- I'm saying that lots of people on this board are suggesting he's some kind of transcendent hitter that should be added despite the fact that he doesn't fit anywhere on the current 25 man at all, and that's just not true. YOU are the one that compared him to JD. He's not even close to what JD was when he was in Detroit or even now, in his mid-30's in Boston. Do you mean he reminds you of JD in Houston, before his swing change? When he was a sub-replacement level opposite field line drive hitter? I don't think that ifts either, but maybe you think Castellanos needs a swing change? I guess that could work -- but do you really think we should take a year of development away from Collins and possibly block Vaughn to spend $15-20M on a guy who we think might break out if he makes a swing change? I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just incredulous at how many people on the board are treating this guy like a superstar.

Wait. JD Martinez hit 29 homers in 232 ABs, an increase of nearly 100%. Castellanos hit 16 homers in 212 ABs, and increase of less than 50%, in a year when FOUR teams broke the all-time homerun record at the same time, where the ball is juiced to the point that the MLB is practically lawyering up to deny involvement, the most bonkers homerun year EVER, including the steroid era. Even OUTSIDE of context, that's TWICE as many homers. It's not even close. When you consider the jucied ball, it's way worse. He had a 167 wRC+ that year -- Castellanos just had a 128 wRC+. Plus, two years prior, in Martinez's most recent full/healthy season, he hit 38 bombs, all while playing for Detroit. How is that comparable? Martinez was two tiers better than Castellanos.

What? Tigers JD Martinez was WAY better than Castellanos, in a WAY worse offensive environment. Go look at the numbers. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jd-martinez/6184/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nicholas-castellanos/11737/stats?position=3B/OF EDIT: The guy is basically Billy Butler https://www.fangraphs.com/players/billy-butler/7399/stats?position=1B/DH

If Collins and Vaughn were in the lower minors, I might be able to get onboard with that idea. But for Collins, at least, that time is now. For Vaughn, that time COULD be as early as September, but very likely 2021 barring an unexpected setback. And while Castellanos and Abreu are both decent hitters, their contracts are at-best “break even” in the $15-20M range, so you can’t really expect to move one of them for anything much. And neither are good enough to warrant this type of shuffling and the inefficiency that comes with it. As good a contact hitter as Castellanos can be, his on base skills are fairly mediocre, and he’s never even hit 30 homers in an era where KETEL MARTE just hit 30 homers. That’s not really all that much to make up for being a base clogger and a butcher in the field. His “fantastic platform year” was worth 2.8 fWAR, and steamer project 1.6 for 2020. Even if you take the over on that, how much better is that, really, than what Collins would put up? A win? Maybe a touch more on the high end. But then what if Collins breaks out? Now he’s a similar offensive contributor who can also catch. You’re throwing that chance away for a marginal upgrade at a cost of probably $15-20M over the next several years. Its just a really inefficient use of resources for a team that has given itself a very narrow path to success with its limited budget.

And that money is starting to add up, and that severely limits what the Sox are going to “be able” to do the next several years as guys get hurt or underperform. And, knowing that the money is “limited,” I just can’t believe it makes sense to spend a good chunk of it on a guy that blocks two of your best prospects when they are both on the cusp of the MLB. Why not spend it on a position you don’t already have filled by several guys?

At this point, this would be full Kenny Williams panic mode.

That’s a huge mischaracterization. Ryu is coming off is first healthy season since like 2013, and arguably only the second in his MLb career. His injuries are myriad and include shoulder problems and leg problems and maybe even back problems (could be wrong there). Wheeler is coming off of two consecutive full healthy seasons, is younger, is in better shape, has way better stuff, and has the same standard elbow litany that half of all pitchers have. The most fixable and predictable (in a relative sense, of course) set of major injuries.

That post was made a month ago lol

And the rumored one year deal to EE that we are talking about, and setting for Dallas Keuchel because they wanted a pitcher now really badly.

I absolutely think that. It doesn’t matter how many years past his effectiveness you have the guy. You can release him whenever you want. At the end of the day, you committed x dollars to the guy, regardless of how long it goes. We don’t think of it that way as fans, but the accounting department does because it makes sense. When ownership is involved, it’s an investment just like a capital improvement project. Once the money is committed, it’s gone. We’ve heard multiple GMs characterize big signings that way, like Dombrowski/Prince Fielder where he Essentially said “This wasn’t part of my plan, this was Illitch deciding he wanted to buy another player,” or when Cashman was “forced” to sign Rafael Soriano by the Steinbrenners and said as much. It’s why the Lerners are paying Scherzer over 14 years instead of the seven he’s playing — it’s just a payment structure they like better. Fans will be cutting “OMG we could go get player x if the Lerners weren’t still paying Scherzer to NOT play!” But that won’t be true at all. The money tonScherzer was gone the moment the ink dried on the contract. The rest is just financing.

It's great in a vacuum, but the Sox now seem to be making a rash of one-year, all-in type moves. Which is exactly what got them in the mess that required a rebuild in the first place. The cost of EE that matters isn't the money, it's the development time taken away from Zack Collins. If they get EE one a one-year deal and fall short, where will they be next offseason? Still wondering if Zack Collins can hit and still needing another bat. The rotation is so thin, it made sense to get Gio, which is a similar signing, because he isn't taking time from anyone. But after Grandal, EE is short-sighted, IMO.

Ok, I'm sorry, I'm done. I hope this all works out. I'm just pointing out that, when this team committed to a rebuild, they had a chance to modernize and catch up with the top franchises in MLB. And the result is turning out to be much closer to business as usual. And that's frustrating.

You can argue the between Kopech/Cease/Lopez you COULD have two in-house TOR starters, but not that you "already had" two in-house TOR starters. Just like you can argue that if Tim Anderson repeats his super high BABIP, Moncada doesn't regress at all, Eloy takes a massive step forward, the coaches buck their track record and figure out how to teach Mazara to reach his potential, ROdon comes back perfectly effective from TJ midseason, Robert and Madrigal come up and instantly rake in May, and the entire bullpen stays totally healthy, then the team really has no issues at all. But that's the problem -- the strategy requires everything (or nearly everything) to go right at once, and when they're going to sign stop-gaps at free agent prices, it doesn;t allow them even to take many shots at everything going right before they have to bail.

Yeah, for sure, that may be exactly the case. I'm not sure what/who is ACTUALLY the problem, but the net is all the same. I'm not pointing the fingers at anyone specifically, I'm blaming the org as a whole.

It's a necessary step if in fact there IS another step possible. My worry with these incremental improvements is that they're inefficient; money adds up quickly, and they are now much closer to their eventual spending ceiling than we'd like to admit, and so it better work out really well or it's gonna be another sell off in a couple years.

That goes strictly against everything the FO has said the past several years. But, even if they DID know that and were just lying to the public, then the only way to do their jobs would be to invest heavily in cutting edge player development like the Rays have done. And they failed at that, too.

Then you don't get top talent. Be the Reds. Make the playoffs every 15 years when all the stars align. As an aside, I actually don't think the years have anything to do with it -- and I don't have proof of this, just my read on it -- I think the problem is actually the total dollars. If you're a billionaire (or billion-dollar enterprise), you aren't thinking about your asset 12 months at a time. You're looking long-term. It's how it works with sponsorship contracts, TV deals, etc. The accounting behind it is considering NPV, and is considering all the money spent the moment the deal is signed. I don't think 9 years scared Jerry off at all, I think $324M or whatever is what scared him off. It could be over 20 years and would be even better.