Eminor3rd

Just that the upside of the deal is limited. You could have signed Kole Calhoun for two years if you wanted a short term deal, and you wouldn’t have given up a prospect and you’d have a guy with a substantially more productive track record. EDIT: or Corey Dickerson.

Meanwhile, better players will sign for similar money for other teams, who didn’t have to give up talent to get them. And every “a SP” that could reasonably be expected to be better than a mid-to-back rotation starter and was available has already signed with other teams that had less payroll flexibility than the Sox.

Maybe, and then if he does, he’ll be a free agent.

And they’re less likely to be contending by playing Mazara in the meantime. The issue is way more about not doing better at getting a RF than it is about giving up Steele Walker.

This is a TON of money to give a first year foreign player in NPB. This’ll be very interesting. Orix is a backwards organization that can’t get out of its own way and really needs a couple power hitters. Good for them on taking the gamble. We’ll see if it works out.

Sign Kole Calhoun for the same salary and give up nothing, end up with a better player.

Just a really pointless, desperate move made in a situation that didn’t call for desperation.

Average exit velo of 89.1mph. Tsutsugoh was 92mph in NPB last year.

What about him is productive? He's been a below average hitter all four years of his career. He's been a below average defender all four years of his career. He's had over 2000PA to improve and had essentially the same season every year. He's a post-hype change-of-scenery candidate. To acquire him now for anything significant would be embarrassingly bad. To acquire him for next-to-nothing would be fine except that it would be settling for a sub-1 WAR player as a RF upgrade in early December when several WAY better players are still available in FA.

If they give up ANYTHING consequential, especially on the pitching side, I am done with this front office.

Going to Orix, bay-beeee

Based on the agent, the season he just had, and the aggressive market, this could turn into on the riskiest signing in history.

Good call. Sneaky possibility.

I mean I think Boras (correctly) judged that this was not an offer that was going to be beat, and probably also knew that Rendon had a good offer on the table too and that they weren’t getting both. I think it’s more that Boras knows not to look a gift horse in the mouth more so than it signals a change in his strategy.

Oh I see now, nightingale is reporting now that there are deferments and they have interest. Sorry, I wrote my post before seeing that.

Really? Are you sure about that? I was under the impressions that was not the car, at least with the Scherzer deal, but I could very easily have read a bad source. That would change it a lot if true.

I’ll be shocked if this isn’t deferred to the degree that the Scherzer deal was. Which doesn’t make it not a shocking amount of money, but NPV of the investment will be substantially lower by the time inflation hits the dollars, which makes a big difference if you’re a billionaire and are projecting how the cost works out.

Cole’s price will be a product of bidding, won’t have anything to do with Stras urge other than Boras will insist on beating the 245 guaranteed number.

I don’t think there’s any chance the Rays sell low on Snell this year, unless they think he’s hurt or something. His ERA was way higher than his FIP, the latter of which was excellent. He’s a very, very strong bounce back candidate, and they know it.

It wasn’t even remotely close. That trade was a massive win for the White Sox. McCarthy’s success came later. The Rangers got 2.2 fWAR out of McCarthy in that trade. The White Sox got 15.4 fWAR out of Danks before they extended him.

That trade would somehow be awful for both teams. That’s rare.

No -- but mostly I was wondering at the connection you implied with players not working out and "there's a reason they don't come over sooner." But yeah, other than Ichiro and Mastui -- and Fukudome, and Darvish, and Ohtani, and Nomo, and Uehara, and Okajima, and Aoki, and Saito, and Johjima, and Iwamura, and Iwakuma -- it's pretty much bust after bust.

You're 100% correct on all of that. The only thing I would add is that there is IMMENSE cultural pressure against talented HS kids signing with MLB teams as prospects, both socially on the kid, and from the NPB on the MLB. And the fastball thing is the biggest worry. These guys are talented enough to do it -- if they were able to develop in an environment that included it. But it takes 9 years for the players to get international free agency rights, which obviously often puts them around or over 30. Can be tough to learn new tricks at that age.

And what is that reason? There is one, I’m just wondering if you know it.

Fastball velo is ticking up, but definitely still behind the states. I’m not sure what the official number is, but just anecdotally from watching about 60-70 games last year it’s probably about 91-93. Relievers are routinely around 94, elite starters can be 95+ With guys like Senga sitting 97-100, but there are lot of innings given to Mid and back end starters (six-man rotations!) that are sitting 86-89 all game. And there are still some TOR guys too though that are just command control wizards with six pitches that barely touch 90. Most hitters (I’d say 85+%) have a contact-focused two strike approach, which confounds even stateside guys who come over here to pitch and see their Ks actually go down. It’s amazing how many balls these guys can foul off when they’re SOLELY trying to not miss.