Eminor3rd

What part of this has anything to do with sabermetrics?

This

Statistically, the only difference between last year and a normal Kimbrel year was a comically high HR rate. Still striking a ton of dudes out, and his walk rate has been that high in years where he finished with ERAs in the 2's. Cubs might give him up to get out of his salary, but they aren't trading him for worse pitchers just as a change of scenery.

Just a heads up, this has been misreported. Those numbers are from the npb minor leagues. The guy got a cup of coffee at the top level.

I feel like “bold prediction” needs to be in the thread title.

His BABIP will go down, but as long as his hard hit rates remain elite and his speed doesn’t go away, he should still be able to maintain a BABIP significantly higher than normal. If he is hitting reasonably well, I don’t see any reason that .350 or so isn’t a reasonable expectation.

Puig is exactly the type of guy who fails hard in NPB (prima donna, no discipline, doesn't respect coaches) and is in exactly the type of situation which creates failures in NPB (I'm not getting what I think I'm worth so I'll go trash this weak league and show all of you -- I don't need to make any adjustments at all). Fifteen years ago, some team would make a huge mistake and pay him a bunch of money. Nowadays, teams scout as much for fit as they do for talent, and IMO I think they'll know to stay away at the type of price that would make him do it.

Sorry I missed. I would argue that looking at it flat IS the projected version. But I see now that other people have pulled up the projection tables.

Why would you use 2019 numbers instead of projections?

Charlotte.

I'm guessing whoever suggested it is thinking of him as a hard-platoon for Mazara.

Nothing else to buy though, man. Having missed on the big pitchers, it's good to keep something in the tank to augment over the next few seasons.

Agreed. Wheeler was the dude.

We've both been posting here for a long time -- do you really think I'm not putting in the time to try to understand the rationale of these moves?

ZING! Got me!

I'm referring to Keuchel, yes, and the potential of signing Castellanos as "back-against the wall, win now" moves, but not the others. I've said in previous threads that the Grandal signing is fine if "it doesn't stop them from spending on high-end pitching also" and I actually argued somewhere that Mazara was a "rebuilding move." I have been critical of most of the moves made this offseason in one way or another, so I can see why you would do it, but you're mis-attributing what I said to other subjects here.

I can't even remember what I was arguing, honestly. Seems like I was trying to say Zack Collins wasn't a bust yet.

https://tenor.com/view/astros-mchugh-wtf-gomez-houston-gif-5791200

So, batting average? 2016, High A: 151 wRC+ 2017: High A/AA: 130 wRC+/166wRC+ 2018: AA: 128 wRC+ 2019: AAA/MLB: 140 wRC+/77 wRC+ Looks like a dude who crushed the minors and struggled in 100 PA in the Majors. Weird because it took Nick Castellanos over 1,000 PA in the majors before he recorded an above average offensive line.

Generally speaking, you're right. But I think the exception to this is when the player needs to see MLB pitching to develop further.

The guy put up SUBSTANTIALLY above average offensive numbers at literally EVERY stop in the minors: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/stats?position=C/DH What are you seeing that suggests Collins has "proved he cannot hit" in the minors?

I think that works in OOTP, but realistically, and ESPECIALLY with this front office, if they go get a guy, that means they're going to give that guy the job. And the major problem is that I can't even remember the last time the White Sox developed a guy that made a relatively seamless transition to the MLB from the minors -- all their guys have to struggle and either failed or eventually figured it out at the MLB level. Is that a drafting issue, or a player development issue? Maybe it's just more common than I think it is because I don't watch other teams as closely as I do the White Sox -- but regardless, the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level. With a highly paid incumbent, I don't know how that ever happens unless the incumbent is so bad that he doesn't even deserve playing time. I acknowledge that NC is almost certainly better hitter than Collins in 2020, and probably a better hitter than Vaughn in 2021. But when you have multiple holes to fill and a "limited" budget to fill it, and when your player dev/drafting is mediocre enough that you only hit on your top talents, I feel like you need to spend your money filling the holes instead of trying to get a 1 or 2 win improvement on guys you already have. These moves reek of desperation. The White Sox went into this offseason with literally $15.333M committed to 2020. No-brainer arbitration bumped that to $37M, and Abreu bumped it up a bit more. We're being asked as fans, to be okay with Gio Gonzalez (Steamer projects 1.1 fWAR for 2020) and Dallas Keuchel (Steamer projects 2.4 fWAR for 2020) as the answer to our pitching problem. When 5 and 6 win pitchers were available and were bought by franchises that were up against the luxury tax! We traded a prospect for Nomar Mazara (Steamer projects 1.5 fWAR) with better options (including NC!) available in FA, and now we're going to pay a 2-3 win DH to block Zack Collins. These are inefficient, back-against-the-wall, win-now moves, and this is exactly the strategy that got the White Sox in enough deep shit to require a rebuild in the first place. I don't hate these players, I just want the franchise to start acting like a successful franchise. To do the things that everyone can see the elite franchises do. ESPECIALLY because we've all had to put up with bullshit the past three years in order to give them that chance.

You mean, stop being objective? I got shit on for years for defending the front office during the rebuild. Now that they've stopped making sense, I've argued the other way. I'm going to root for the team to do things that makes sense, period. I'm not gonna "be positive" or "be negative" just for the hell of it.

Alright, asshole... So what is it? Is he like JD Martinez or not? Is my "reading comprehension" a problem, or did you just say two completely opposite things? If he isn't as good, why did YOU say that he reminded you of JD? If it's about doubles instead of homers, why did YOU compare them using ONLY HOMERS? The only reason I said "not trying to be a dick" is because you argued using numbers that made SO little sense, I was afraid you'd be embarrassed when I pointed it out.

Right -- it makes no sense to look at ANY player and suggest that he is likely to end up like a historic outlier like JD Martinez. Guys like Martinez are the exception, not the rule. It COULD happen, but you COULD also win the lottery tomorrow.