Eminor3rd

I don't think is steep at all. It seems very reasonable to me, to be honest. This guy is coming off of two consecutive 4+ win seasons, his stuff is at its peak, and there's even speculation/some evidence that he could be better if he improved his sequencing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zack-wheeler-is-good-but-not-as-good-as-he-could-be/). There's tons of risk with every pitcher, but how is this guy not worth five years at ~$20M? I mean, it's a very similar and arguably even better profile than Corbin had going into last offseason, what with Corbin's only one great season (albeit a better platform season, statistically) and diminished velocity/heavily increased slider usage (plus similar injury history), and he was disappointed to get 6/$140M or whatever. I don't know, I'm confused, but I seem to be higher on Wheeler than a lot of people, so maybe it's me.

Ellsbury was released, finally.

Right — but like I said, between now and the rule 5 is the time to do it, because with so many teams locked into a full 40 man, you minimize the chances of this. Not a lock, but this is their best shot to push him through.

Because then you weed out everyone who would only be willing to carry him on the 40 man instead of the 25. If Yolmer is faced then only with minor league deals, you would assume the White Sox have an advantage. If someone wants to sign him to a MLB deal and commit an active roster spot, well — good for Yolmer.

Outrighting him now makes perfect sense if they wanted to work out a new deal with him -- every team just solidified their 40-man in preparation for the Rule 5 draft. A team would have to like him more than either someone they just protected or whoever it is they planned to try to snag in the draft for them to make a claim.

Doesn't help much if you're never on base.

I think it's difficult/impossible to know how to feel without having a lot more information than we have. If you're Ellsbury, the team doesn't own your body, but they do own the rights to your services (which they've purchased, directly from you, at an extremely high price), and so it stands to reason that they should be able to negotiate terms around your health as it relates to your ability to provide those services. For an athlete, I think it's reasonable for that to include the types of therapy/training that the team believes makes sense, not dissimilar for say, an employer of a crane operator to be concerned about said crane operator's illicit drug use. Sure, your employer shouldn't have a say in the moral/ethical quandry of recreational drug use in general, as it pertains to one's life -- but it's hard to argue that that employer shouldn't have a say when said drug use could directly affect the employee's productivity and safety at the workplace. In this instance, the Yankees both (a) have a substantial amount of in-staff medical expertise and experience, and (b) have interests/incentives aligned with the player, in terms of having the player's health in its best interest, so I don't see an ethical problem here, in theory. Where the Yankees could look bad would depend on how legit their claim really is. What exactly DID Ellsbury do? How drastically does it differ from what the Yankees recommended? What were the range of outcomes, medically, and how relatively risky was each path? At the end of the day, if we had that info and the expertise required to truly understand it, I wouldn't be surprised if we felt the Yankees' claim was complete bullshit or completely legit. I hope we find out one day, but I doubt that we will. Both parties have legal and ethical obligations, I'm guessing, to keep Ellsbury's health information private.

“This aggressive”? They’ve signed one guy.

Wait, what? Are you serious? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9132&position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10310&position=P

All day

I hope! But not if one of them is Keuchel/Bumgarner

It’s definitely negative; it’s definitely NOT “this is the only significant move they’re going to make.” I think my worry comes from the fact that I am tending to rank the pitchers on the market this year way differently than most seem to. I think they will get pitching, but my opinion is that there are fewer difference makers available than it seems, and those guys are at the top of the market. And while we all know that there’s still plenty of room on the payroll to fit literally anyone, we also both know that the White Sox just broke their record for a contract, and it’s pretty unprecedented for a team to do that and then go beat it again by another 40% in the same offseason. If they get Wheeler, I’m fine with this. But I think it’s fair to be worried that this could mean they’re gonna end up with Keuchel instead.

I mean I didn’t say any of that so

I would argue Wheeler is in a tier of his own, and I think he’s gonna get $100M. And I fear that this puts a wheeler in jeopardy. MadBum/Keuchel/etc. are solid 3/4 starters. Getting one of those guys and calling it an offseason is exactly what I fear. Come on man, because it’s what the White Sox have always done. Get one 32 year old guy, and PR the fuck out of it. You’re gonna hear “we went and signed the richest contract in franchise history” a lot this year.

I hope so. I hope I’m wrong that this takes them out of the running for high end pitching.

Welp lol

I think they should spend on elite pitching, and given their MO, I think a significant position player expenditure will cause them not to do so — either by causing them to settle for a third tier option like Dallas Keuchel or by all-out dumpster diving for a couple veteran backend options.

No, but I don’t think they are in onGrandal and I don’t really think they should be. if they are, that certainly changes things. I probably try to trade Collins or move him to 1B permanently and forget about getting a DH.

Backup. He still needs some reps there.

In 2020, I see him as a backup catcher with the opportunity to win ABs at DH.

I think yes. His arm is his best defensive tool, so you could even try hiding him in RF. He’s slow but his instincts are fine. It would be two notches better than palka. Spending relatively little on this as an upside gamble makes more sense, to me, than spending much more on the safer but middling RF options currently available elsewhere. Theres clearly elite pitching available right now, but not COF help. Gamble on a lotto ticket here; spend on the real deal in the rotation.

I don't think he's bad, I just don't think he's a TOR arm at all. I think he's a good 3/4 that is going to want to be paid like he's just a notch behind Cole/Strasburg. For example, Szymborski ran some projections for him in a neutral park, and they looked like a league average pitcher who is hurt by homers: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-17-8-million-answer/

You’d burn down the farm for one shot at going from 72 wins to WS champ?

That’s about what has been in my head, too.

With the paltry amount of money committed to future payroll that the White Sox have, the overtures we have been hearing from the front office, and how bad this team obviously needs high-end pitching, I will be disappointed if they don’t end up with one of Cole/Strasburg/Wheeler. As unlikely as it seems that they will do so, the fact remains that CAN get one if they choose to do so. Ending up with Keuchel/Bumgarner instead is just White Sox business as usual — spending money inefficiently on famous players that are past their prime, and trying to sell the brand names to meatball fans as if the coming season won’t expose it all for the farce that it is.