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Yea, let me put this one to bed. No one has called Bailey fat. There is a fine line between a "fat" baseball player (Bartolo, CC, and someone nicknamed after a bear native to China) and a less rangy outfielder. Bailey stands at 6'4 215 lbs at 17 years old. While that is great size for a physically matured player, it is uncommon for a 17 year old baseball player who hasn't filled out his frame. Let's put into context of how unusual that is. I looked up 10+ current DSL rosters and Bailey is unmatched in his height and weight combo. There isn't another teenage position player (non 1B) who matches his size. Now let's look at some players who actually made it to the majors. Here's a list of the current LatAm players who stands 6'4 + and their first reported weight vs. their current weight. Bailey easily beats all of these guys on the weight department by a good margin. Jorge Soler 20 yrs old 6'4/205 6'4/230 +25 Domingo Santana 17 yrs old 6'4/190 6'5/220 +30 Nomar Mazara 16 yrs old 6'4/185 6'4/215 +30 Ronald Guzman 16 yrs old 6'4/195 6'4/225 +30 Aristdes Aqunio 17 yrs old 6'4/190 6'4/220 +30 Yordan Alvarez 19 yrs old 6'4/190 6'5/225 +35 Jose Martinez 18 yrs old 6'5/170 6'6/215 +45 Avi Garcia 17 yrs old 6'4/190 6'4/250 +60 Miguel Cabrera 20 yrs old 6'2/180 6'4/250 +60 Miguel Sano 16 yrs old 6'4/190 6'4/260 +70 Franmil Reyes 17 yrs old 6'5/190 6'5/275 +85 Some of these guys are still in their early 20's and and bound to put on some more weight past by their mid 20's. Let's just say Bailey stays on the low end and puts up only 30 lbs by 25 (unlikely), he will be running around the OF at 6'4 250. He isn't "fat" at that weight, but it will limit his range for sure. Also worth pointing out that none of the guys above started out at LF to begin their career. I have acknowledged there is a small chance he could stay at OF at that weight AND become a passable defender. But the safe bet is he's a 1B/DH type or an OF who's a negative defender out there. But I think even mentioning the possibility of 1B/DH by projecting his future growth is making some people butthurt over here. Obviously having some scouting report will shed light into Bailey's tool and whether he overcomes the odds, but looking at that list above, if he overcomes the odds and becomes a passable OF defensively, it's the exception not the rule.

One thing that's frustrating to see is how bad the plate discipline is across the low minors. Some kids have shown they have some raw talent, but at the same time striking out 5 or 6 times as often as they walk. You look at both AZL and GF, both teams rank dead last in their leagues in team BBs and 3rd most in strikeouts. Kanny is not much better, ranked bottom 4 in BBs and leading the league in strikeouts. Until the Sox get better as an org in developing plate discipline and helping guys become better hitters, they're not going to be very successful in developing young LatAM or HS position players.

Sox wont call anyone up with Charlotte in midst of a playoff race. However if Charlotte falls out or when they finish their postseason I am pretty confident Mendick, Yermin, and Collins will all be up to get their cup of tea.

He's been trying to get acquainted with his future defensive home.

Didn’t he sign with Lakers? I always thought Bougie was going to be the X factor for them, now the battle of LA is more evenly matched, probably even favors Clippers more.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=19181&position=C/DH&gds=2019-07-17&gde=2019-08-14&season=&type=-2

Except Rios was 6’5 210 in his prime and 6’5 180 when he was drafted, this kid is already 6’4 215 at 17 and putting on more weight, and likely another inch of growth. He’s played most games at LF and only a handful at other spots. It’s not like he’s being blocked other legit prospects at CF/RF, the fact he’s not spending more time there suggests something. None of us have seen him play other than that one clip, I am projecting based him body type, age, and his position right now, and the chances are higher that he moves to a less premium position than more premium position as he fills out. I don’t know how that is debatable, unless anyone has better scouting reports.

Good clip, he looks huge compared to others on the field. Doesn’t have the smoothiest running motion due to size, once he fills out his frame, if you think he will stick to OF after the first few years of his career, good for you.

Just because we have a 6’7” behemoth playing OF doesn’t mean all big players are better suited out there. Sound logic there. Judge for the record started out and stayed at RF. Kid is 17 and already looks bigger than 6’4” and 215. He’s already primarily an LF, without scouting report you have to go by probability, and odds are he stays there or goes to 1B/DH, not moving to more premium positions.

The dude looks massive, probably even bigger than his listed size. He’s potentially a 1B/DH down the road (that said, even getting a bat first player at this point is a big win for the LatAm program) Laureano didn’t graduate because it wasn’t justified, but it’s not out of the ordinary for kids at his age to adjust and improve and become legit prospects. Until there is better scouting report, I’d go with the kid who could hit and play CF.

I personally am higher on Laureano than Bailey, but both are intriguing. While Bailey is a full year younger and has great eye, Laureano plays CF. I’d be interested to hear more on their defensive profile.

Escobar is correct. I thought it was pretty clear it was current player lol.

Years ago there was a light hitting IF in the Sox farm who hit only 14 Hrs in over 2,400 plate appearances. He went on to hit 20+ hrs each of the last 3 seasons.

Thompson and Dalquist will likely pitch 10 innings at rookie ball and start at Low A next season.

That's how cheap organizations are ran.

Would Collins be the backup catcher in that scenario? If not, I don't see why we shouldn't try him at 1B and move Abreu to DH long term. Dont think Collins would be a downgrade from Jose in terms of defense.

He’s turning 18 in 2 months, Jr finished the season at A- when he was this age. It’s more of stating the obvious at this point, I also hope people didn’t seriously think we could strike again with another Tatis.

Early return is the young Tatis isn’t the elder Tatis.

Usually they are pretty close, Rodon would get less than expected, but McCann would be getting more. I don’t see that number move too much either direction. With all the Pre-Arb and arb costs, and potentially bringing back Abreu, that money dries up pretty quickly.

BBRef. Arbs for Yolmer, Rodon, Colome, Leury and McCann are costly, assuming they all come back.

Including Pre-arb and arb they’re at $55M, the difference between this guy and a vet arm is likely at least $10M a year for the next 4 years, money we could spend elsewhere. If the cost here is a couple of guys outside of Top 10 and that frees us money for us to legitimately go after Cole or JDM, sign me up.

I won’t pass a high probability double if that is there, that is what Madrigal and Vaughn are, not your 6+ WAR players but 3 WAR is a fairly obtainable with their profiles. Had these two not been there I think Sox would have been picking higher upside high risk picks, e.g. Abrams.

Shitty definition to fit an argument and not a game I want to play, since the difference between a ground out and a single is almost as high as single and an HR.

Nice try, but very different probabilities. The probability of hitting an HR through the draft is much lower than in the game of baseball as you’re trying to force together an analogy. In that case I would rather have 3 singles or a double and a single than trying to hit an HR every single time where the probability is much lower. MLB draft is where if you’re constantly hitting singles or doubles, you’re doing better than 95% of the league.

Like I said, who cares about BABIP if he has skills to be a .300 hitter? You’re overthinking this shit for no apparent reason and it’s making you sound like a troll. Someone could be a .300 hitter with a .310 BABIP and others could be a .300 hitter if they are hitting .350 in BABIP. Both are sustainable depending on their skill set. Madrigal is the first outcome.