jasonxctf

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 31, 2009 -> 06:05 PM) By the way, I saw reported today that on top of the realization that TARP only actually used less than half of the $700B they were allocated, but early returns so far are showing a 15% profit. Still lots of money out there of course, and some of it (AIG, I am looking at you) may never come back. But at the very least, we have clearly seen that the most dire of predictions - that the money would all be gone, all $700B, with no profit and no principal - were very wrong. great point. its funny, 6 months ago we were worried about the Great Depression II.

I last started a new thread on Buehrle's perfect game. Let's see if the magic still exists.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 31, 2009 -> 04:01 PM) Then the US can use its trillions of dollars in retained earnings (aka tax money) and quit taking any more money from me. does the US truly have "retained earnings" as per definition? In accounting, retained earnings refers to the portion of net income which is retained by the corporation rather than distributed to its owners as dividends. Similarly, if the corporation makes a loss, then that loss is retained and called variously retained losses, accumulated losses or accumulated deficit. Retained earnings and losses are cumulative from year to year with losses offsetting earnings. I would think that the US is in a deficit position in their retained earnings portion, and thus is being balanced out by capital infusion. (aka borrowing)

Discover: Small Business Confidence Hits 18-Month High Monday, August 31, 2009 Discover released the results of its Small Business Watch survey for August, with the data indicating that economic confidence is beginning to return among America's entrepreneurs. "For the past few months, small business owners have shown rising confidence in the overall economy, as well as an increasing sense that the conditions for their own businesses are improving," said Ryan Scully, director of Discover's business credit card. "This month we have a few more signs that they may be ready to start trying to grow their businesses again, and that the worst may be over." According to the survey, the number of small business owners who think the economy is getting worse dropped to 43% in August, the lowest reading on that data point since the Watch's inception exactly three years ago. This month, 38% of owners say the economy is getting better, up from 30% in July; 15% believe that the economy is staying the same, down from 16% in July; and 4% remain unsure. Among the report's other highlights: 48% of small business owners rate the economy as poor, which is the lowest percentage since February 2008, while 41% rate it fair and 9% say it is excellent or good. 30% of small business owners see economic conditions for their businesses improving, up from 29% in July; 44% see their own conditions getting worse, down from 46% in July; and 23% say the climate is unchanged. 27% of small business owners say they plan to increase spending on business development, such as advertising, inventory and capital expenditures, which is up from 23% in July; 43% plan to decrease spending, down from 49% in July; 25% are planning no changes; and 5% aren't sure. 51% of owners say they have experienced cash flow issues in the past 90 days, down from 53% in July.

i think 35 is fair.

if we trust our states to have non-us born citizens run them (CA, MI, etc) why should the Federal Government be any different? Shoot, Congress could always impeach if things go outta control.

if you are Bank of America, I'd think you use the $73.8 billion in banked retained earnings that you've earned over time.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 31, 2009 -> 03:40 AM) That's a pretty interesting take. So they want to make money off of people in a late position, milk them for everything they can, and ONLY then will they give them help, but at a substantial cost? What a f***ed up world we live in. its kind of like the credit card companies too. they hate customers who pay off their balance every month. They prefer those who rack up lots of charges that they cant pay.... right away.

guys.. i work with banks on a daily basis for commercial lending. their goal right now... get customers to a 15-20 day deliquency, charge the 15% per month late penalty and keep them in that range. No new lending unless the owners have a 700 or in some cases 725 credit score with minimal revolving debt ($30k or less) and if you have these scores, you'll be capped at 1/2 of what they'd lend out to you before. All fees are up. (doc fees, filing fees, etc) On top of that, since fewer banks are lending, rates are up about 200bps from this time a year ago for those we are fortunate enough to "qualify". Credit analysts have been instructed to look for "reasons to say no". they absolutely do not want to modify contracts/agreements unless these customers go to 45-60 days past due. If you are a guy struggling to make your businesses payments on time, call and ask for the help, the answer is no, until you hit these magic numbers. if you are fortunate to modify your contract, they will hit you with a multi-hundred dollar "reset" fee. Other banks have changed their mindset, payment structure, to employees on maxing out fees/deposit growth and penalizing them for lending. As bullish as I am about where we are going, we wont be able to get as far as we need to, unless something/someone really gets these banks to start lending again. The biggest problem, in my opinion, is that the 6 to 7 largest banks control 65%+ of the lending in this country. We've let consolidation get out of hand. Remember First Chicago, how big they were. Well they got bought out by Bank One who then got bought out by Chase. Chase then got bought out by JP Morgan. Oh and by the way, JP Morgan/Chase bought Washington Mutual too. LaSalle was bought by ABN AMRO who was bought by Bank of America. (who also bought Countrywide) I hope that once things do get back on track, we break up these large banks like we did with AT&T back in the day. It's not healthy to have so few, control so much of lending.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 31, 2009 -> 01:57 AM) As you said: there's no guarantee for ANYONE. So, there that goes. The whole thing is a waste of time, then, I guess. ETA: Illegals will still get health care under this bill. we all believe what we want to believe... seems silly to even discuss facts anymore.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 09:07 PM) This is great: Glenn Beck goes on a rant using "hidden words" about Obama and how they all have a deep meaning, then cant figure out how to spell Oligarchy properly... OLIGARHY is not a word! awesome.. beck is such a jag

U.S. double-dip recession "out of the question": ECRI On Friday August 28, 2009, 10:30 am EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests chances of a double-dip recession are slim. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week to August 21 fell to 124.4 from a downwardly revised 124.9 the prior week, which was originally reported at 125.0. But the index's annualized growth rate soared to a 38-year high of 19.6 percent from a downwardly revised 17.4 percent the prior week, a number which was originally 17.5 percent. It was the WLI's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to May 28, 1971, when it stood at 20.5 percent. "With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group's recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections. He added that the index was pulled down this week due to higher interest rates. Achuthan has recently projected that the recovery is moving at a stronger pace than any the United States has seen since the early 1980s.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 02:55 PM) Inflation is the scary monster next year, IMO. That is the biggest X factor in how quickly we recover, or if we dip deeply again, in 2010. what did you think of the Chief Economist's take on that in the article above?

Just coming across my desk... Upward Revision in Q3 U.S. Growth We are revising upward our forecast for third quarter growth in the U.S. by a full percentage point, from an estimated 2.8% to 3.8%. This is a swing of four full percentage points from -1% in the second quarter. While this continues to be subpar growth in an economic recovery, it is far better than the consensus expectation not too long ago. A number of factors have contributed to the uptick. Housing, of course, is an important factor as the longstanding contraction in residential construction is dissipating and may well turn positive later this year through 2010. We estimate that auto sales, thanks to the cash-for-clunkers program, will add one percentage point to third quarter growth as sales surged and the automakers announced production increases in the U.S. to restock exceptionally low inventories. This will add to personal income as overtime pay rises and some laid off workers are called back. Other fiscal stimulus measures are also contributing to growth, such as the first-time homebuyer tax credit and infrastructure spending. The infrastructure spending boost kicks in more strongly next year and lower-than-expected costs of these projects are increasing the number of projects and the labour demanded, boosting the bang for the buck. Inventory depletion had an enormous negative impact on Q2 growth. Inventory replenishment of material inputs and finished goods will boost Q3 GDP even with relatively modest buying by wholesalers and retailers for the back-to-school and Christmas seasons. Private sector spending incentives will boost consumer demand for items such as appliances and baby items. For example, Toys “R” Us launched its own cash-for-clunkers-type program, baby style. Toys “R” Us is offering customers the chance to trade-in used cribs, car seats, high chairs and strollers in exchange for a 20% discount on selected items. The three-week program begins today with no limit to the number of products turned in. Even day-care centres are welcome to ‘trade-in’ all of their baby items. Initially, the program is limited to the U.S., but the company says it may offer it in Canada depending on its success. Other customer incentive programs are also popping up for many products including travel, gasoline and luxury goods. Even many of the U.S. airlines are enhancing their frequent flier programs, and Neiman Marcus, the high-end department store that has suffered 25% year-over-year revenue declines, has introduced free shipping to Canada even on highly discounted items. Tax credits for ‘green’ renovations are also a stimulant and as corporate earnings improve, we might even see businesses jump on the spending bandwagon. None of this erases the still-dismal jobs picture or households’ need to build their much-eroded wealth. It’s just that the enormous liquidity poured into the economy, low interest rates and fiscal stimulants combine to push the growth outlook to stronger levels than once feared. It will still be a moderate long recovery period, but with no inflation worries for at least the next year, it could well be stronger than expected. Dr. Sherry Cooper Executive Vice-President, Global Economic Strategist, BMO Financial Group Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets & BMO Nesbitt Burns

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 09:59 PM) That's just it. You can't separate out one thing or another. Economics is a total package. Picking out just the good isn't really an equal sounding board, its just being a fanboy. nor is picking out the bad.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 10:20 PM) So he did run deficits his first few years, but reigned in spending and cut them down year after year, and then ran surplus...thanks for posting that, I didn't have time to check earlier. no worries.. nice that the administration is putting this info on the website rather than hiding it.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 06:20 PM) I meant debt. But yes, although Clinton did balance the budget and run surplus the last few years, I don't believe he ran a balanced budget his first few years, which would be deficit. I don't have time to check that, though. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy201...ts/hist01z2.xls

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 07:16 PM) And of course, that's just outright dismissed by people other then "nutcase right wing wackjobs". welcome to the world of being in the minority. your voices/ideas dont count. Just ask the dems who dealt with it (unhappily) from 1994-2006. Now the tables have turned.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 09:27 PM) In the category of FWIW, the stock market rallied a whole 50% from the 1929 lows before selling off about 85%. (since you seem to have a particular interest in depression era economics and finance lately ) its a different world my friend. listen all we hear everyday is how "the end of the world" is coming. whether its deficits, unemployment, foreclosures, etc. The positive or better than expected news tends to get lost in the crowd. Just trying to give an equal sounding board for the good with the bad. People can choose to believe what they want.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 09:22 PM) Dow is up for the 7th straight trading day. Now at levels last seen October 7th, 2008. Dow is up 5.6% since 1/1/09 Dow is up 45.8% since 3/9/09 (its low) 8th day in a row. Rally Monkey brought us from 82 down to 37 up.

its always easier to say no, then develop something of your own.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 08:35 PM) are you hoping for poor economic news?

Dow is up for the 7th straight trading day. Now at levels last seen October 7th, 2008. Dow is up 5.6% since 1/1/09 Dow is up 45.8% since 3/9/09 (its low)

I dont think you trade away a .310avg catcher who Danks and Floyd are comfortable with. Dye, Thome, Jenks, Konerko could all be gone. Who knows? Rebuild around Danks, Floyd, Peavy, Buehrle, Rios, Beckham, Quentin.

QUOTE (Tex @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 04:32 PM) When was the last time America tackled a project as big as health care reforms? who knows, but immigration is next on the to-do list.