Feeky Magee

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 12:41 PM) Avi somehow lost .2 fWAR last night. Sometimes I'm really not sure how the defensive metrics are working because was he expected to catch the ball in the 9th? That was a smart play keep the ball in front of you don't turn a single into a triple, even with a 2 run lead you just don't want to give away runs. No he didn't

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 08:23 AM) I don't think it was a year too early at all. Look at the parity in the league . Hovering around .500 puts you in the playoff picture. Any team 10 games over .500 at the end of the year probably makes the playoffs. The Sox now are trying to rely on having better defense to support the pitching with Beckham and Sanchez and LaRoche getting a bit more playing time at 1st. There are just certain times that a team that spends like the Sox have to show a clear effort to make major improvements and that was having a lot of room to add salary and the ability to do it without giving up a 1st round draft choice. Those situations do not come up often together. Make improvements along the way or finally be a 2nd half riser ,get in the playoffs and let the pitching carry us. It certainly wouldn't be the 1st time that's happened It was definitely a year too early. There were too many holes in the team. Trying to scrape your way to the second wild card is not a good strategy. Build a sustainable winner. QUOTE (harkness @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 09:13 AM) It was a widely held belief by a ton of intelligent baseball people that the Sox were going to be good this year with all their signings.... It hasn't happened yet but these few people running in here like "I told you so..." It makes me laugh... Actually it was repeatedly suggested on the likes of Fangraphs that the White Sox would not have a successful season despite all their signings. And if people predicted the Sox to have a poor season amongst vast predictions of a good season, they kind of deserve to say I told you so.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 09:37 AM) The first time he ran, it was 2-1 when he ran. The pitch he ran on was a ball to make it 3-1. Ok. But if I recall correctly, the guy couldn't throw strikes at the time, and when you're a 50% career base stealer it's never really a good time to run, unless you're picking up some guy's motion really well.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 09:24 AM) And even with your numbers, 73 is much higher than 27 and Avi is still 50/50 into second. The way this team has been bouncing into DPs, they are trying to do something about it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With a runner on 1st and less than 2 out in his career, Soto has 540 plate appearances and has grounded into a DP 69 times. And even on a strikeout Avi is 50/50 into second. Now you're going back from a 3-2 count to a general plate appearance. This is pointless. Either way, my original point in the thread was that we should generally stop running with Avi. It's way less stupid to do it in that situation than it was to do it in the 3-1 count his prior caught stealing, granted.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 09:15 AM) There is a far greater chance of a positive or neutral result than negative. Are you for real? It's 24% chance of a positive, 27% chance of a negative and 49% chance of a neutral. And that's without considering infield liners, which extends the gap even further. It's net negative.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 08:25 AM) No you are not. You are also ignoring the count. Soto in his career has a .497 OBP with a full count. Again the only plays that hurt are infield liners and strikeouts. Anything else either doesn't matter or it helps he was running.A fly out, Avi gets back to first, a pop out, same thing. It is worth the gamble, now be like you want Hawk and Stome to be and just admit you are wrong. I'll reply here since the thread you made the comment in is closed. I am not wrong. He may have a .497 OBP, but that's mostly down to walks. In a 3-2 count, he gets hits 14% of the time. He puts the ball in play for outs a further 24% of the time. Of this, let's presume he hits his career average 40% grounders. That means he hits 10% grounders. He strikes out 27% of the time. So that's 24% chance of a ground ball or hit, where running is advantageous, 27% chance of a strikeout, where it's disadvantageous, with the rest being walks or fly outs (neutral) or infield liners (disadvantageous). I'm right, you're wrong. And that's purely assuming an average runner, whereas this whole thing started because I stated that Avi was below average.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 11, 2015 -> 07:13 AM) As if on cue, haha, 11 minutes later. That one was pretty much exactly what I had described earlier: QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 06:25 PM) And even if they do, I would imagine their complaints would be more along the lines of "this is indicative of my problems with him, i.e. he doesn't care enough" (not that I agree), not "I don't want Ventura managing" "Wait, now I want him managing!".

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 08:21 PM) Zangari blurb https://twitter.com/CharlieHannema/status/608805166825865216 About twice the slot value then. That's where a lot of the extra money went.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:35 PM) Not much of a track record to judge him on. He's shown a lot of power, but his OBP is pretty poor. Definitely one of those swing at everything types. How's his defense? When I see 3b/OF I wonder. I actually wouldn't go for him as he does one thing really, extremely well (hit for power) and everything else poorly. It still makes him well above average offensively but players that do one thing really well tend to get overrated ahead of guys who do everything above average, even though the latter guys are usually more effective as a sum.

Laroche was out. Really off-putting how both Hawk and Stone insisted it was safe and then stayed silent when the replay showed he was out. I like my homerism but admit you're wrong when you were wrong.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:07 PM) But you are ignoring the situations his running is a push. The only gamble is striking out and lining out. Plus with 3 balls his chances for a walk are heightened. I said adjustments can be made but I'm still right. You said the chance of a groundball/hit was higher than a K. I believe I have demonstrated that not to be true. As if to prove it, Soto just came up with a runner at first, looked at a strike, swung at a strike and looked at 4 straight balls. He just doesn't perform in a way that it's optimum to run with him there, particularly with my gripes about Avi not being a good runner.

Remember Hawk's "it's all good"?

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:02 PM) You think Abreu wants to crush this guy? Lol

Putnam is a good reminder to trust AAA numbers. Sox only got him because of inflated ERA numbers in brief MLB tryouts despite really good results at AAA.

Who was it that mocked me earlier in the year for saying Putnam was performing brilliantly and his ERA would come around fast?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:48 PM) It wasn't a hit and run Well that just strengthens my argument. If it's merely to stay out of the double play, that means you're expecting Soto to behave like he does in a normal at-bat. And Soto swings just 40% of the time, puts the ball in play about 35% of the time, and gets groundballs on his balls in play just 40% of the time. Therefore, he hits a groundball on roughly 6% of pitches. He gets hits on about 10% of pitches. He takes called strikes about 27% of the time and swinging strikes about 10% of the time. Therefore I have the chances at a groundball or hit at about 16% and a strikeout at about 37% of the time. Adjust somewhat for a 3-2 count if you want to but it's not gonna make up the difference.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:42 PM) Run the numbers. You are wrong. I'm not wrong about the hit and run. And I just said I'd be unsure about groundball/hit v K, not that it's wrong. I'm simply asking why you think that.

It's been time to start Soto all year, but now it's really time to start Soto

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:13 PM) Ground ball + hit is greater than k. So the play makes sense No it doesn't. A hit and run is best used when: a) the batter is someone who does not frequently strike out, b) at a time when the count won't disadvantage a hitter if he takes a bad swing and c) with a runner fast enough to take second base even if the batter does strike out. The Sox didn't have a, b or c. And why do you think a ground ball or a hit is more likely than a K? Genuine question, just briefly thinking about it without running numbers I'd be really unsure about that.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 08:08 PM) That is on Robin for sending him. But it wasn't because Avi isn't a base stealer why he was out at 2nd. I think Avi has the tools to steal 15 bags a year What shows you he's a good base stealer? He has consistently failed to steal bases at a satisfactory level from AA up.

Pretty cool that our last 3 hitters to play the spot you're supposed to have your best hitter have batting lines of: .232/.273/.268 .234/.253/.318 .180/.206/.197

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:01 PM) Not really. He was safe last night and a lot of people say he was safe today. Running to steal and running to stay out of a DP or running for a hit and run are 2 different things He was probably safe today by an inch, which is not enough when you have to steal bases 70+% of the time for it to be worth it. He's 9 for 20 on his career now. Soto is a flyball hitter who is striking out 34% of the time. The chance of a strikeout is higher than a ground ball.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 08:57 PM) Yes but it wasn't a straight steal. That is on Soto for not even swinging the bat It still demonstrates he is simply not fast enough/a good enough baserunner. I'd rather risk the double play than risk the strike 'em out (with a guy who strikes out a lot) and throw 'em out (with a guy who gets thrown out a lot).

QUOTE (Capn12 @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 07:50 PM) Has Quintana EVER been able to pitch over mistakes? Yeah I think so mate

Have a game, Emilio