Feeky Magee

Of course, all these years I wanted them to DFA Flowers and then I find out about pitch framing, decide I actually quite like him, and they DFA him.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 10:05 PM) Hahn's press conference with Melky, Samardzija and Robertson gets more depressing by the day Robertson's been great in fairness (albeit pretty pointless on this team)

QUOTE (beautox @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 07:56 PM) Yeah, id rather have them all back than Shark, they're looking to finish collectively at 4WAR for a tick over 1.5m and Ravelo made it back from injury at AAA, where as shark should finish at 2.8WAR with a potential comp pick and the sox spent nearly 10M on him. Bold predictions thread: QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 4, 2015 -> 05:58 PM) Tyler Flowers hits under .200 before being replaced by Soto Semien/Bassitt/Phegley/Ravelo produce around the same amount of WAR as Samardzija Abreu has an OBP of over .400 Rodon replaces Danks in the rotation and beats his ERA by over 2 White Sox go under .500 Undershooting a bold prediction is a damn talent.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 04:15 PM) So you want to ignore Trace's walk rate as a 24 year old in AAA, and hold Avi's numbers as a 17-19 year old against him. OK. I didn't say to ignore it, I made clear my reasoning that it could be a blip. I'd feel better if it was higher, sure. It's part of the reason I've said I want to see more from him. And I'm not holding it against Avi, the main evidence I have against him is his 1000+ PA in the majors with no improvement (again - worse than Dayan Viciedo at the same age at the same level), I was just using it against the whole "Avi destroyed the minors" stuff.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 02:04 PM) Isolating a 13 game stretch when he was out on a rehab assignment doesn't really make for a very compelling argument. No but I think it's part of why people think he will eventually be a success at the major league level, feeds into the whole "he destroyed the minors" rhetoric. Whereas in reality he was terrible for 3 years, was above average in 2012, and extremely good at AAA in brief stops mainly on the back of some ludicrous BABIPs. I think his 1000+ MLB PA tell us more about who he's going to be than 250 AAA PA. Trayce's BABIP is obviously sky-high too but at least he's doing on it on the back of a decent BB:K, and showing strengths elsewhere.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 01:39 PM) Who's point are you trying to prove with that chart? TT had just a 5.5% walk rate in AAA (which is the only level the chart shows) and the chart shows it is likely he would be the same in MLB. That's not a good walk rate. And how can you claim that they will probably be about the same offensively when Avi put up a .933 OPS at AAA from age 22 to 23 and Thompson put up just a .744 OPS at age 24? And guess what? There walk rates were nearly identical. It would take a hell of a big difference in defense and base running to make up that difference in OPS. Let's give Trayce some time before we anoint him the savior. Avi doesn't yet have 2 seasons worth of at bats in the Majors with a major injury during that time. He still has a ways to go before he becomes a productive major league player but he's still just barely 24 years old (younger than TT). I swear some people on this board no absolutely nothing about baseball except what a fangraphs page can show them. 5.5% was a big surprise given his career tendencies, and I'd expect that that would have climbed given longer at the level. Sometimes you can be doing stuff that usually leads to good walk percentages (i.e. not swinging at pitches outside the zone) but it doesn't show up in your walk percentages in the short-term. Avi put up that OPS in a mere 200 PA, and he did it with a skillset that typically doesn't translate well to MLB level (take his 2014 line of 1.8% walks, 30% strikeouts and a .485 BABIP.) And again, I'm not anointing Trayce a saviour. I've already said I still have him at 4th outfielder level. Being a more productive major league player than Avi is not exactly a high bar. Surely given your thoughts about Avi, he should at least be showing signs of improvement year-on-year? He's been virtually an identical player no matter what chunk of MLB PA you take. His stats at the same age are actually worse than Dayan Viciedo.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 11:11 AM) So did Tyler Flowers. Once you get to higher levels, it's a new game. Trace has been great, but his defense has been shaky. Several curious routes, a huge error, and also seems to be thinking about that error at present. Avi is a bad defender without a doubt, but also leads the league in assists, and at least 2 home run saving catches. If you want to say Avi is horrible without a chance to be any good, saying Thompson is a guy who is going to be good is a long reach. Fangraphs isn't the way to identify prospects. Tyler Flowers is one player. Generally, there's a strong correlation between high-minor walk rates and major walk rates: And I'm not even saying Trayce is going to be good, I still need to see a lot more for him to be a starter, I'm still in the "probable good fourth outfielder" camp, all I was saying is that some people talk about Trayce like he hasn't really produced in the minors because all they're looking at is batting average. Assists don't mean that much when you are as terrible as Avi is. He is a huge liability in the field. That's where you start and end with his defence. He is also a really bad baserunner, ranking 141 of 153 players this year in baserunning runs.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 04:57 AM) Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA. Trayce also has a long, long history of walking a lot, whilst Avi has a long, long history of not walking. What do you think of their respective defences?

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 09:10 PM) What is Sale's SIERA if you don't mind looking? 2.44 before today's start

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 07:47 PM) The Sox need desperately ... a.) power bats. Anybody available from Cuba that the team could sign? Or is Viciedo gonna be ready for the comeback? b.) bullpen. The bullpen is horrific. Can it be fixed? c.) defense. The defense blows. Can it be fixed? d.) Some righthanded veteran starting pitcher who can pitch effectively. All four of these areas must be improved drastically. Our bullpen is not horrific. Bullpen SIERAs (best pitching peripheral, what your ERA should be): David Robertson: 1.97 Nate Jones: 2.02 Zach Putnam: 3.03 Zach Duke: 3.21 Dan Jennings: 3.31 Matt Albers: 3.39 Jake Petricka: 3.42 Webb has no business in the bullpen but that's a decent 7. As you say the defence blows and that coupled with some bad luck has meant some inflated ERAs.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 07:26 PM) If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia. a) There's probably not a huge difference in what you should expect from them offensively in the majors, but Trayce can be valuable with a 90-100 wRC+, whereas Avi cannot, due to his horrendous defence and baserunning. b) Avi's BB:K rates were very poor in the minors and his success was often dependent on extremely high BABIPs. Trayce always ran a nice BB%, his problem was striking out too much, he has shown signs of improving on this weakness. c) Avi has had over 1000 PA at the MLB level and has been almost the exact same player throughout them.

One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA. (wRC+, far right, 100 is average)

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 01:54 AM) In the year MLB broke the projections I have to love your incessantly gleeful "told you so!" message. Seriously, the Mets, Yankees and Cubs are laughing at not only the Sox but also your myopic view of the data that confirms your hypothesis about not only Avi but this Sox team.. We can't really predict MLB teams. What we can say is that there are good teams and bad ones. The Sox have been awful for 5+ years. Fire the f***ing men responsible. Projections systems aren't perfect, but they're useful. They're actually much better at an individual player level than they are for teams. And I wasn't even on about projections systems in the first place. Just Avi being awful.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 09:53 PM) Gotcha, well played. I still think you give Avi one more year. He had a horrible month of June. Take June out and he's hit .294 on the year. A lot of players would look good if you took away the worst 20% of their season. And Avi could hit .294 and still be a pretty bad player, considering he doesn't walk, hit for that much power, run the bases well or play anything approaching okay defence.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 09:36 PM) How often are those projections even right? Those aren't projections, those are what he's produced, it was a joke based on the fact that he's very slightly improving on awful performances year-by-year. But, fwiw, projection systems got Avi's performance this year pretty much spot on. Also worth mentioning the projections had the White Sox at about 78 wins, whilst 92% of soxtalk had them at 80+: http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...amp;pid=3129545

Good news on Avi everyone! He's due to turn in a positive WAR in about 2019:

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 09:21 PM) Wow, another expert analysis by Feeky. How about a round of applause as Feeky defies stats. Well done Feeky and where would we all be without you? Again, a very well thought out and inciteful post! Can someone show me where the green is again? Well if you want more info, there's no way on earth that the White Sox are gonna offer John Danks a raise on what has been one of the worst contracts in baseball, all because he's had a very slightly better year than last, and ranks about 100th of the 120 pitchers to throw over 100 innings, using the best peripherals.

QUOTE (skooch @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 10:09 PM) Here's a crazy thought, if you're the Blue Jays or the Yankees do you consider trying to add John Danks for a potential playoff match up against the Royals? No. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 5, 2015 -> 08:53 AM) He has improved each year since his surgery and seeing as how Danks is likely pitching for the Sox next year, he could be worth a comp pick at the end of the 2016 season. No.

As well as the excellent hitting stats, he's 48/56 on the season in stolen bases

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 9, 2015 -> 03:02 PM) Eddy may be my favorite "sleeper" in the entire org. I made the completely bats*** crazy prediction he'd be Top 100 by the end of the year and while that isn't happening, he's extremely fun to follow. His career goal is to make the majors and walk 100 times in a season. How great is that.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Aug 9, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) Y'all sleeping on Eddy Alvarez. Dude is the absolute truth. The double promotion I suggested for him doesn't look too insane now. Too good for high-A as well. Let's get him in the lineup for the Angels series.

Y'all sleeping on Eddy Alvarez. Dude is the absolute truth.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 3, 2015 -> 11:48 AM) For the record, not all the writers were in agreement on everything. I happen to agree with you on Delminico for example, and I personally think he's not that close to T30 - though I know the profile and background add some interest. As for your alternates, a few notes... Guerrero is in the Top 15... Cooper is interesting, the results are insane, but I saw him in person in May and wasn't that impressed (unless he's changed some things, which is possible) though I agree he needs promotion... With Zavala and Dopico they are both worth watching, but I'm not going to get super-excited about Rk ball stats from lower profile guys just yet... Trexler, Narvaez and Perez were all discussed and just missed the list. Oh and, Philips is no longer a prospect by rule - too much major league service time. Cool, thanks. As a rule, I don't get too excited by rookie stats either, but when they're clear standard deviations above what anyone else is doing they're worth looking at, particularly when the college track record is strong too.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Aug 3, 2015 -> 11:10 AM) My thoughts: Guerra at 30 over guys like Leyer, Wheeler, Rondon (assuming he's not in top 15), Rodriguez, Robbins, Almonte, Chalas, and Martinez is a joke to me. But, that's really nit picking since he's at 30. Love that Wendelken finally made the list. I really think he can be a Petricka type pitcher. Love that the young guys are finally coming into their own it looks like, like Cruz, Jarvis, Clark. I'm willing to bet Savala, Rodriguez, and Almonte will crack the top 30 next year. I think Erwin is too high, low 20s sounds right. A joke? He's striking out the world in AAA, and had a nice K:BB in a brief majors stint. Albeit he's been poorer in the bullpen recently (I'd have left him starting). Out of some of the names you want ahead of him, I love me some Cleuluis, but he's hitting .182/.245/.227 at A+, that's beyond poor. Robbins is hitting .264/.278/.364 at Low-A as a 22-year-old. Luis Martinez is striking out 15% and walking 11% at Low-A. As for my thoughts about the list, players I don't buy as Top 30, or as high as they are: Nick Delmonico: hitting below league average for Birmingham, offers nothing defensively or on the bases, wouldn't be hyped only for 22 great PA with Winston-Sale, Johan Cruz: not actually hitting that well despite a .315 average (89 wRC+), walk rate has collapsed Myles Jaye: colour me unimpressed by a 17.8 K% and a 8.0 BB% at his second go at AA, and his first go was awful Thad Lowry: he's intriguing but not that high for me, like Jaye the K:BB has jumped from awful to merely okay Corey Zangari: 31 strikeouts to 5 walks as a first baseman at AZL screams trouble to me, even considering his age People I would have considered over some of those guys: Junior Guerra: as stated above Jordan Guerrero: Unless he's top 15? Matt Cooper: 41.1 K%, 5.7 BB%. Completely insane. Promote him already. Seby Zavela: college performer, completely mashing at AZL (as he should be, but .364/.432/.662 is terrific), can he stick at catcher? Carlos Perez: a terrific 14:5 BB:K ratio for the DSL White Sox, projects to stick at catcher, good scouting reports Zach Phillips: still technically a prospect despite appearing in 3 MLB seasons, excellent at Charlotte could do a job in the bullpen right now imo Dan Dopico: college performing reliever, like Cooper a terrific K:BB at a lower level than he should be David Trexler: stuff has apparently ticked way up, this would be dependant on him moving to a starter like reports said, but he hasn't yet Omar Narvaez: wildcard but has excellent plate discipline (no power), ranking would be dependent on him potentially being an excellent framer per reports

Matt Boyd's gonna be excellent I think