ChiSox59

Yeah it seems to me like this is going to get hammered out in the next week or two, or we're looking at a coinflip of whether this season happens at all. If a shortened season with no pay for the players and no game revenue for the owners isn't enough to get them to meet in the middle when rubber meets the road next week, what is?

Talk about a death kneel to the sport.

I don't agree with @poppysox often, but I do agree that this was always going to be a last minute thing. No side is going to give more than they have to until....well....they have to. Things don't look great, but at least they're meeting daily. Both sides obviously know where the other side wants to be at this point. There is no real benefit to either side cratering or agreeing to meet in the middle until they have to. If we don't have an agreement a week from today, well....the season isn't looking too good. But until then, I remain hopeful. we see April baseball.

IF they did something like this, they'd surely need to give it a year. You can't tell teams they have to spend $75M a few weeks before the season starts. Not sure how many are under that off hand, but at least a handful definitely are. A floor would be nice, but its not happening. $215M is too low for the luxury tax though. The Sox aren't even ginormous spenders, and are going to be at or over that number assuming they sign someone like Conforto, and their problem isn't really going to get any easier next few years.

Personally, I think so. Making the playoffs in baseball should be hard. I don't really give 2 shits about potential interest adding four undeserving teams to the field creates. The 82 win Phillies team shouldn't be in the playoffs. But its the way we appear to be going, so oh well. I just don't like it.

NCAA is a totally different animal. 16 and 15 seeds win well over 95% of the time. A 2 seed in this proposed MLB playoff structure that wins 100 games but misses the 1 seed bye by 1 game is going to lose to an around .500 7 seed far far far more than 5% of the time. Its terrible I hate it. But its not like its going to change my fandom. Bottom line, around .500 ballclubs don't deserve to make the playoffs. It would have worked out OK for the AL last year, but the NL would have been gross.

March 3rd. Season is delayed a week even though it feel like they could have started on time, especially when the date comes. But there’s lots of wishfulness in that take.

Fair enough my friend. Its why both vanilla and chocolate exist!

In a 7 game series, I agree. In a 3 game series legitimately anything can happen. Its baseball. 95-100 win teams are going to lose to slightly above .500 teams regularly in the 2 vs. 7 seed three game series under this format. Its a stupid way to go out after grinding for 162. Win your division or go home. 1 WC was enough. 2 was dumb but acceptable. Anything further is just a money grab. But, such is life.

That's fair. I am VERY against expanded playoffs. I think its horrible. But I it won't impact my love for the game one iota. Just think it removes a little beauty from the game.

It just sucks for the teams that actually had a fantastic season. You win 100 games and then lose a 3 game series and go home. Its terrible.

Probably.

This is an interesting idea. Team defense might be the worst in the league tho with Mous at 2B. We really need a plus defender at 2B. I still really like the LaStella for Keuchel+. LaStella will miss a month or maybe two, but he's a great team fit and Leury/Romy can cover in the meantime. You can still bring in a cheap defense first utility infielder too. But without Keuchel, you obviously have to bring in a reliable SP elsewhere then. I fully expect Keuchel to be on this roster tho, and frankly I think he'll be fine as the 5. This team is plenty good enough to win the division comfortably with Keuchel as the 5. I worry more about keeping his innings in check to avoid paying him $20M in 23 than him killing the Sox from the 5 spot.

You're saying your not going to take Two Gun Pete's words of wisdom on this one?

If the Sox sign Conforto, it won't be for one year. It sounds like the QO is going away, but not necessarily draft pick compensation. From what I read, sounded like the team losing an elite player to FA may still get something in the draft, but necessary "from" the signing team. With Conforto being offered the QO before the CBA expired, not exactly sure how that would be ruled, but assume this year's FA's with the QO attached will still be subject to draft pick compensation.

Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Abreu 1B, Eloy DH, Grandal C, Vaughn LF, Conforto RF, Leury 2B is a heck of a lineup. Sign a good defensive 2B and push Leury to supersub where he belongs and its absolutely stacked. You can mix up the order a bit if you want, can pretty much roll them out however you want 2-8 and its going to be good. Certainly not the best defensive team out there, but not much you can really do about that at this point. Its why we need at least an average defensive RF and a good defensive 2B tho.

Conforto has a 3000 PA sample size of being a well above average hitter. Sheets has a 180 PA sample sized of good matchups showing he's an above average hitter. These two things are nothing alike. One is also a RF, the other is a DH only. Additionally, the Adams have absolutely nothing to do with Conforto, who isn't really even a "slugger" like those 2 were. Conforto is not a superstar. He is a well above average hitter that fits a ton of team needs and all he costs is $.

(Nods in frustrated agreement)

The last 5 season, Conforto has averaged 2.82 fWAR per season. That includes Covid season with only 54 GP, and 2017 and 2021 where he appeared in 109 and 125 games, respectively. On a per 162 basis, that is a 3.86 fWAR player. To suggest he isn't worth $15M-20 AAV solely based on 2021 is quite silly. The only reason he isn't getting a mega deal is due to 2021. Conforto goes back to who he has always been, and he'd a bargain at $18M AAV.

Point well taken, but no one (even the owners) are suggesting getting rid of the minor leagues. We're talking about a 16.67% reduction. 150 minor leaguers per org still provides plenty of washouts to go be coaches and steward the next the next generation of players. Not to mention all the guys that played collegiately and didn't have what it takes to hack it in pro ball aren't eliminated from being travel ball coaches because they didn't play a couple seasons riding pine in the Pioneer league. I am not that passionate about it, but I don't think a 16.67% reduction in the size of the minor leagues is the death kneel to baseball. There are plenty of other things that have resulted in today's youth having a lack of interest in the game, and a small reduction in minor league washouts being available to coach is pretty far down the list.

Problem with that plan is that you can't rely on Engel to be healthy. He's proven that. So when he gets hurt, now your RF is Leury. And relying on Sheets to be your everyday DH would be a mistake. We go from a good amount of depth to very little when you trade Vaughn and don't sign a RF.

Am I the only one that doesn't find reducing the size of minor leagues and the draft that big of a deal? Its so hard to make it to the big leagues. There are so many guys that play pro affiliated ball that have next to zero chance of ever making it to the big leagues. Would the elimination of 30 minors leaguers per org make it so that 1 out of every couple hundred guys that beat all odds never gets the chance? Maybe. But its also probably the best for the vast majority of these guys that never make it out of rookie and A ball. They never had a real chance anyway - may was well get on with your life while you're young. Get a job that is year-round so you're not trying to make ends meet each winter with odd jobs with no upside. Its not like making $18k a year playing baseball in what is effectively a deadend job for most low end draft pick and the undrafted is going to get you to a better place in life. Its kind of a hard reality, but its true. The owners probably have the wrong reasons for doing it, but at the end of the day, they're just doing all those guys a favor that waste a few years of their life chasing something they never had a chance at anyway.

Yeah. Its insane. Its really only a couple guys here tho, so I am going to try to tune it out moving forward. For some reason, just bugs me. AV is going to be an awesome offensive player, and I was impressed with how he looked in LF throughout the season. Again, no gold glover, but plenty capable. Was he a black hole at times? Yeah, he was. But its to be expected. He's going to improve immensely in 22. This argument also makes it sound like I don't like Gavin. I do. I just don't think we should put our eggs in that basket yet. He's a very useful depth. He does something we sorely need. But he has zero defensive ability, and we quite simply have better bats that need to DH. I am just not sold that his SSS in 21 is going to translate. He's never hit for much power in the minors, and I just don't see him as a high upside piece. I keep using the Brandon Moss comp if all goes well, and continue to think that's pretty much an upper quartile projection for Sheets. Not someone you turn AV into a weak side platoon player for.

To the last point, there is basically no chance Sheets is on the roster and AV isn’t assuming health. But I’ll just leave it there and agree to disagree on the rest. We’ll find out soon enough.

The only reason Conforto isn’t going to be a well north of $100M player is because of his down season. He’s been one of the best hitters in the game over the last half decade and he fills a ton of team needs. You’re overthinking this.