steveno89

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 01:36 PM) That's true, but the flip side is that the prospects are more likely than Quintana to exceed their projected surplus values. There's more upside and downside risk with prospects, and the projected surplus values, at least in theory, are supposed to take that into account. So you basically get some middle number somewhere between best and worst case scenarios. The range for a Quintana is much narrower. Even still, the known and more proven value is in Quintana over the next four seasons than the combined value of 3 prospects. Sure, one of them could develop into an all star caliber player and it would be a win for the White Sox. If I am dealing 4 seasons of prime Quintana, the return should be along the lines of Sale and Eaton.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 12:39 PM) Rangers system at such an odd point in development. The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams? Maitan looks like a very good prospect, but he has not even turned 17 yet. There is far too much risk projecting a player that young to the major leagues. Albies looks like he could be a really good player, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he is still young, but his 2016 performance at AAA was not great. The speed, makeup and defensive ability are not questioned, but if the bat doesn't play his value will be limited. I don't doubt that he will make the majors eventually and contribute, but he needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching this season to take the next step. Maitan is a toolsy wild card, and a serious gamble. If I'm dealing Quintana I would want a more proven prospect.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) Add me to the list of surplus value being an overvalued indicator. I would welcome a report on these excess value applied retroactively to previous years of trades to see how accurate they would have been, and that should ultimately ignore performance of trade itself. The method of thinking also looks at a potential trade in a vacuum, and does not consider how multiple suitors bidding will drive up the price

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 11:15 AM) Wow, people overvalue prospects. I don't like that that article doesn't take into account a very important economic concept while using the surplus value concept. This guy puts ZERO discount for risk on the Astros prospects. There should be a significant discount for risk on any prospect, at least 30%. That's the faulty logic in the article The chance that Quintana delivers on his surplus value over the next 4 seasons is way higher than the chance those three prospects pan out and produce. I agree a further risk discount should apply to Tucker and Martes as Tucker has never played above A ball and Martes and never pitched above AA. Proven mlb talent should always come at a premium, and at age 28 it is wrong to assume that Quintana could not provide 5+ WAR seasons. The past three years he has averaged 4.5 WAR per season. age 28-32 seasons are the peak of a players prime generally, right before a decline is expected, it's not crazy to think Quintana could produce 18 WAR the next 4 seasons, or perhaps more.

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:51 AM) here is another good one. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/12/16/13..._source=twitter That article assumes that each of Musgrove/Martes and Tucker will be mlb contributors to a certain degree. Three 2 WAR players do not equal the value of one 6 WAR player, as 6 WAR players are vastly harder to find. That package really underwhelms me compared to the Sale and Eaton returns. If we don't get superior value we should hold out for better

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:42 AM) I agree. I don't see guys like Gonzalez, Frazier, and Melky really bringing much back if it is now or in June/July. An injury in spring training or early in the season to an OF or 3B could make Frazier or Cabrera a very attractive rental replacement for a contender as well. Being able to acquire a capable starter under contract for just 2017 could end up being a godsend if a core player goes down.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:42 AM) I agree. I don't see guys like Gonzalez, Frazier, and Melky really bringing much back if it is now or in June/July. They are not going to return premium prospects, but they are not worthless either. Frazier is entering a contract season, and I expect him to do better in his second season with the Sox. Small sample size, but Frazier hit .281 avg - .341 OBP - .526 SLB with 7 home runs in the final 30 games of the season, a positive sign.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:20 AM) Agreed. Rockies seem to be in "go for it" mode with that offense (or at least should be). Maybe they're waiting a Trumbo or Encarnacion signing before focusing on starting. A Rodgers + Hoffman or Pint + solid third piece (I'm thinking Freeland as we could use a solid left handed prospect in our organization after loading up on righties) If they balk at including Hoffman or Pint, I would ask for Rodgers + Tapia + Marquez + Freeland Those are both acceptable packages for each side that could be considered win-win. Rockies get a #1-#2 starting pitcher under cheap control for the next four seasons, greatly adding stability to the rotation. White Sox get a slew of quality prospects and continue the rebuild

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:20 AM) Agreed. Rockies seem to be in "go for it" mode with that offense (or at least should be). Maybe they're waiting a Trumbo or Encarnacion signing before focusing on starting. A Rodgers + Hoffman or Pint + solid third piece (I'm thinking Freeland as we could use a solid left handed prospect in our organization after loading up on righties) If they balk at including Hoffman or Pint, I would ask for Rodgers + Tapia + Marquez + Freeland Those are both acceptable packages for each side that could be considered win-win. Rockies get a #1-#2 starting pitcher under cheap control for the next four seasons, greatly adding stability to the rotation. White Sox get a slew of quality prospects and continue the rebuild

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:08 AM) We don't really know that. If he were to get him, he would be playing SS in the minors for a few years while we figure out where and Anderson and Moncada are best suited for. If those positions are SS and 2B, then great. Rodgers to third then. But ultimately I think Moncada ends up at third personally. None of us know Colorado's willingness to deal Rodgers, but we do know they badly need SP and bullpen help I'd much prefer a package headlined by Rodgers than a Houston package centered around Martes/Tucker. Rodgers has the potential to be a very good player and middle of the order bat (similar to Bregman)

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 09:24 AM) Yes, it is the .200 iso as a 19 year old. Edit: That plays shortstop Rodgers power is not just a projection, but a reality. .281 avg - .342 OBP - .480 SLG - .821 OPS at age 19/20 in A ball is really good, especially for a middle infielder that arguably could stick at SS Rodgers would start the season in high A Lancaster and possibly see the promotion to AA mid-late in the season if he does well He is 2-3 years away from the majors, but the tools are their for him to be really good

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 08:35 AM) Greg, with the way the White Sox operate, they are finally doing what puts them in the best place to sustain long-term success. They've been bad in years when they've gone for it and haven't reaped any of the benefits of rebuilding (spending a little more internationally, signing guys with the intent of flipping them, trading away valuable assets and sunk cost guys). The Sox have basically been seeing the results at the ML level of a team that is rebuilding without any benefit. Go away for 2 years. Complain about the draft and "prospects". But if they draft a player in 2018 that ends up being a franchise cornerstone I'm going to call you out when you root for that player. If you are not going to the playoffs you really are better off tanking and landing a top 3 draft pick. The worst thing you can do is get stuck in the middle while trying to compete like we have been doing for years. Carlos Rodon was absolutely the right draft selection and is still young. He was a good pick.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 09:47 AM) True...it can go either way--depends on if teams (who don't have a solid closer) who looking to contend early on think they can make it to the trade deadline without a closer. Obviously he would be worth more now to teams who are set up to contend from the get go (Nationals) and worth more at the deadline to those who come to realize they are in the hunt and just need a closer. If I were Washington, I'd be looking to get a deal done now--and have him available on Opening Day and not have to deal with a committee for 4 months and 6 other teams (and likely a higher price) come July 31st. We could take advantage of Washington's situation and dangle Robertson and/or Jones for a significant haul. Washington is built to win now, and having a closer by committee approach could prove to be costly, plus the deadline cost could be huge given multiple suitors bidding. White Sox can sit back and wait for the best possible offers, and if a team does not get desperate then just sit tight and wait. I set the price for Robertson high.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 09:16 AM) I don't get the Rodgers hype, other than that he was drafted 3rd overall in 2015. He's not tearing the cover off the ball, and his K rate is high, though not alarmingly high, but with a mediocre BB rate. Is it the power? I guess a .200 ISO while more than 2 years younger than league average is impressive, but that still was done at low A ball. I'd rather take a chance on Reed rebounding, Stubbs's high walk, low K, reasonable power bat that played well at high A and AA against age appropriate competition at the premium defensive position, as well as the potential of Tucker and Martes rather than putting most of the value gotten back for Q into Brendan Rogers. I'll admit that the top end talent in the Rockies deal is better, and if they were willing to add Tapia, even if it meant Freeland became a different, less attractive piece, I'd probably like their deal more. As for Robertson, I'm not saying he's more valuable than either of the aforementioned players, but one netted 2 Top 100 prospects in all of baseball, with one being Top 20, and the other netted what may now be a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball, and both netted 4 total players. That's why I think Robertson is worth more than the proposed Nationals deal. Even being worth slightly less than them, he's worth more than that package. Robertson should be able to get us at least one top 100 prospect right now, likely 50-100. A good season could make him top 50 prospect worthy at the deadline though. If a GM feels their team has a legitimate shot to be in the playoffs bullpen help is always welcome at the deadline. If Robertson has a solid season the return could be considerable. Frazier is entering a contract year, and a good season could really increase his value at the deadline as well. Same goes for Melky as a rental.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 12:56 AM) No, nothing, and unless someone bowls the Sox over with an offer I doubt Robertson gets traded. Bullpen arms have insane value at the trade deadline and I think Robertson has a good chance of having a good year. He's a good pitcher for sure. If he can get that nasty cutter back, he could be worth a LOT at the deadline. You may not get the Frazier package or the Torres package like Miller and Chapman extracted, but you could easily get at least the headliner of those packages. If I'm the Sox and I don't see a good headliner in a trade like a Frazier or Torres, I gamble on Robertson and try to deal him at the deadline. Worst case scenario: He sucks and you can't trade him. But at least you'd have one more year of control to see if he can put it back together for trade deadline 2018. I completely agree with you The White Sox aren't going to rush the rebuilding process and will be patient for great trade returns. Bullpen pieces always come at a deadline premium for contending teams, and Robertson could be a top option for a team in need of help.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 11:25 PM) Although I like the Astros top end package, getting Rodgers would be bigger than Tucker/Martes combined. Also, you can't honestly think that David Robertson is worth more than Andrew Miller, right? Robertson is coming off a down year with a much higher walk rate than his career average. Andrew Miller is one of the best pen arms in the game... Robertson doesn't even come close to that. Robertson was outstanding his final 22 innings of the season, and really seemed to r"right the ship" so to speak He is the best proven closer on the market and has now become a valuable trade chip. Hahn was smart for not tossing him into the Eaton deal The Rockies have more potential to come up with a big package than other teams, as Rodgers is a significantly better prospect right now than Martes or Tucker.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 06:43 PM) Rather have Tapia than Freeland, but love the first two pieces in the Rockies deal. That Robertson deal would be a no-brainer to me. We really could use a solid left handed pitching prospect in the system if we deal Quintana. Freeland could be a back end starter or solid bullpen arm

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 06:42 PM) Both are light. I feel the same Robertson could have huge deadline value, as could Jones I feel like we could squeeze another player out of the Rockies in a Quintana deal

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 05:09 PM) Last year it would have made sense to go after them to plug holes; it might make sense in 3 years to get similar players. But they are average players with too little time left of control for it to make sense now. Bleacher report suggested two deals for the sox Quintana to the Rockies for Rodgers, Hoffman and freeland Robertson to the nationals for Stephenson and severino Thoughts?

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 04:14 PM) And the Nationals have yet to find a young pitcher they couldn't destroy. I really think the key with Giolito is whether the Nationals have ruined him beyond repair. The talent with him is near-generational, and he's only 22 years old, if they can even get back a fraction of what he could've been they could still have themselves a TOR starter. Giolito is worth the gamble He has been more hittable in the minors than scouts would like to see, and his K% rates are not incredible. The raw stuff though flashes a ton of potential I don't think he will ever develop into an ace, but he could become a quality #2 or #3 starter. The key for him will be polish and development. A full season in AAA will do him alot of good.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 03:29 PM) They have a couple good pieces in the rotation. Tyler Anderson was good for 2.5 bWar over 19 starts last year. Jon Gray had some awful outings, but he was worth 2.3 bWAR and struck out almost 10 per 9 with a FIP of 3.63 (better numbers than Rodon). Chatwood was 3.5 bWAR, though his peripherals weren't great. It's not a murderer's row of a rotation, and definitely isn't a contending rotation, but they have some good pieces and the lineup is going to rake. They really need Gray to continue to develop, and they need to add a TOR starter. But I can absolutely see why they would be patient and see how they start out of the gates before buying - particularly since Q would cost several impact pieces off the farm. The starting rotation is one thing. The bigger issue is a bullpen devoid of reliable arms Even if the rotation improves, that bullpen will blow a ton of games Side note: Keith Law brought up some interesting points 1) "Nick: If you were Lunhow, would you trade Musgrove + Martes + Tucker for Quintana, and why or why not? I go back and forth as an Astros fan but think I’d be happy with him pulling the trigger. Klaw: If I’m Luhnow I do it. If I’m Hahn I’m not even countering because it’s so low. FWIW, I don’t know that that was ever discussed by the clubs." 2) "Ceej: Would you move Moncada to CF to take advantage of his speed? Klaw: If he shows he can’t improve at 3b. Lifelong infielder moving to CF shouldn’t be taken as a given that it works." 3) "Rob: I know the Pirates are probably unlikely to get involved, but would Meadows, Keller and Newman be enough/too much to get Quintana? Klaw: I don’t think that fits the White Sox’ goals for such a deal and probably isn’t enough close-to-the-majors value, but it’s better than the reported Houston proposal." 4) "Keith: Now that the White Sox are clearing their MLB roster, do you think Matt Davidson will get a chance to play? Last I heard, his 3B defense was considered plus. Does he still have everyday starter upside to you? Klaw: He’s not a plus defender, but he has a good swing and average power. I hope he gets one more chance before he’s discarded to the NRI scrap heap." 5) "Priya: Any trick to identifying which prospect with Sale like deficiencies will defy the odds and stay healthy or is it a fool’s errand? Klaw: I don’t think so, but I tend to think in a certain way, building heuristics and being very critical of exceptions to those guidelines. Sale violated several of them – the bad delivery, the lack of a breaking ball in college, and the narrow frame – and yet has had a Hall of Fame start to his career. Credit the White Sox with drafting him in spite of the questions about whether he could start, and with getting him from a 40 breaking ball to a 70. But if I saw another Chris Sale I’d probably have similar reservations because the majority of guys with those issues don’t pan out."\ 6) "Tommy Tutone: How good is Lance McCullers? Will he be a #1? Klaw: I’ve said for a while I think LMJr will end up in the bullpen because of his delivery. It’s ace stuff, but he has yet to hit 160 innings in any season and keeps getting hurt. I’d rather see him stay healthy all year."

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 03:28 PM) Fwiw KLaw mentioned in his chat today how awful the rumored Astros package would have been for Hahn. He also said he's not sure if that was the actual trade discussion. On second thought, I kind of agree If we are dealing Quintana it better be for a superior return Make a team pay the piper for him

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 03:08 PM) I think that the EE market is holding this up. He's asking for money with no teams willing to pay that price right now - once he moves, then it becomes possible to judge the value for both Frazier and Abreu better. Agreed. Encarnacion needs to sign before a market for Abreu/Frazier will develop

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 03:01 PM) The only way I see a trade with the Rockies working is a 3 team deal. They have no reason to gut their farm when they already have excess MLB pieces that they would rather sell. Indians: Blackmon Rockies: Quintana Sox: Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Mejia, Kyle Freeland, Ben Bowden And I'm not even sure that feels quite right. But there is no way the Rockies trade Brendan Rodgers before an OF. I hope I'm wrong, but I just dont see a reason for them to do that. I would not accept that trade offer. Zimmer is 23 years old and striking out at over a 30% rate in AA/AAA. I don't think Cleveland would want to part with Meija in that deal either

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 02:54 PM) Well yes, but Jones throws fireballs and that is the only pitch they are confident in. Jones would not come cheap in a trade either He had a strong 2016 and is signed to a cheap contract