steveno89

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 03:15 PM) There's a weird piling on of judge right now. I don't necessarily want him in a Q deal, but sometimes players do need time to develop. He dramatically improved between years 1 and 2 in AAA as you'd like to see. He strikes out, but he was still k'ing at under 30% in AAA and walking at a nice 12% clip. In his abysmal, small sample size, he still walked 10% of the time. I'm not saying Judge cannot right the ship, he absolutely can. But I am also not going to ignore striking out like he did I dug into Judge's game log, and if you take away the first five games after he got called up and performed well he was beyond terrible the rest of the season. From August 19th to September 13th Judge batted .106 in 75 plate appearances and struck out 48% of the time I'm not going to say this means he qill automatically bust, but he struggled big time at the mlb level

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) How many of these guys have to bust before Sox fans will learn that that type of player just does not develop in the White Sox farm system? It's no coincidence that the Sox organization has shifted towards drafting and developing players who know how to get on base Collins and Fisher led the NCAA in OBP this past season

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 03:03 PM) Judge has huge power potential and that's pretty tantalizing to fans of a team that plays in a small park and yet does not hit enough home runs. I completely understand why Sox fans would want Judge, despite the fact I'd prefer other Yankee prospects over Judge. Small sample size, but him striking out at a 44% clip in 27 mlb games is abysmal. This would concern me less if he were 21/22/23 years old, but he will turn 25 in February. His defense is passable at best, so you are really betting on power potential only. He will really need to improve his contact if he is going to stick at the mlb level.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 02:54 PM) Why does anyone want Judge? Put him in the Sox development system, and he's a guaranteed bust. His K rate is WAY too high, and the Sox don't know how to fix that. Give me Andujar over Judge every time. Nobody wants Judge, because everyone sees how he is on the clear path to being a bust Mateo's stock is down as well after posting a subpar .685 OPS this season in high A ball. That is concerning enough for me to remove him from the top 100 prospects list. I would not accept him as anything more than a third piece in a Quintana deal I really don't see a deal getting done because it would require the Yankees to part with a ton of their minor league talent.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 09:00 PM) Benintendi's more similar to Ellsbury/Gardner than a perennial MVP candidate. Why would Devers be higher than Moncada? Just for power numbers? Not sure how many scouts are out there saying Devers is a superior prospect to Moncada Purely on mlb.com scouting grades = Devers: Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55 Moncada: Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 65 Devers might develop more power than Moncada, but Moncada has significantly more speed. That speed may come in handy if Moncada is asked to play the OF ever Both are really good prospects, but I am curious to see how Devers adjusts to facing AA pitching

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 01:32 PM) Just for sh**ts and gigs, I wonder what a package with Headley coming back could look like. To Yankees: Quintana Frazier To White Sox: Headley Torres Frazier Rutherford Judge Lol, doubt it. I have a hard time imagining the 2 years and $26M they owe Headley moves the meter enough to give up 4 of their top 5 prospects. A man can dream though. Pretty sure any White Sox fan would take that deal and run, but very unlikely from the Yankees point of view

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 01:15 PM) Intriguing idea for sure. Certainly interesting if the White Sox would take back Headley in the deal to save the Yankees some money moving forward

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 11:37 AM) I wasn't saying anything about that deal. My comment was is that he is not as good as sale thus you shouldn't expect the same haul the Sox got for Sale. Even still, he has an additional season of cheap control, which puts his value right on par with Sale. If the length of contract and money were equal, yes Sale is a better pitcher. But Quintana on a 4 year, $38 million contract is a steal for any team

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) It is haha. Just as a fun thought, what do you believe it would take? Devers, Travis, Groome plus one more piece? Disclaimer: before people decide to pounce and say it isn't going to happen; I know that. You don't have to tell me. I was just throwing it out there because it's a boring Tuesday at work. I don't see Boston wanting to tap into it's farm system anymore after trading for Pomeranz, Sale and Thornburg in the past year

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 11:27 AM) this will not happen. He is not the pitcher that Chris Sale is. Quintana for four seasons is more valuable than 2 1/2 seasons of Andrew Miller, which received Frazier + Sheffield + two more prospects If they insist on keeping one or Frazier or Torres, I'd want Torres +++ and the rest must be very high quality Torres + Rutherford + Adams + Montgomery + Sands Minimum required = Two of Torres/Frazier/Rutherford + two more #10-30 organizational prospects

QUOTE (BamaDoc @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 09:41 AM) Great analysis. Could you also argue this is why we need to trade Q this year? The supply of pitchers is low now and will be greater next year , Q will have one year less of control, thus the price may drop. If you don't get what you want now and next years offers do drop, I think you may consider keeping Q in the mentor role. Also in a year some of the Yankees prospects will progress up to higher levels and have more value. They have such a quantity of prospects that if they feel they won't get to the playoffs this year they are better off waiting a year. Because of failure risk, you may get 4 players this year but 3 next. For me I want Torres + one of (Rutherford, Sheffield, Andujar, Kaprielian) + one of (Fowler, Adams, Wade) + Sands(catcher prospect) We can get depth and quality with a Quintana deal. I don't want one headliner plus a bunch of lottery tickets for 4 cheap seasons of Quintana. We must get a return like the Sale deal for him Torres + Frazier + Montgomery + Sands is a package I could see working Remember, Andrew Miller's 2 1/2 seasons netted the Yankees Frazier + Sheffield + two more prospects A Chapman three month rental netted the Yankees Torres + Warren + McKinney + Crawford Anything less than a Torres + Frazier ++ package would be us selling Quintana for less than he is worth.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) That's putting it midly. That's like Yankee fans trading say.. Tanaka (minus the contract and injury history of course) to us and wanting Davidson + back. Neither guy is in any deal for Q for me, especially Judge who will be 25 when the season starts and makes Jermaine Dye look good in RF. Hahn is not an idiot The only true gems in the Yankee system are Frazier and Torres. Everything else looks pretty overrated to me. Judge is going to be 25, plays questionable defense and strikes out too much. Mateo regressed in high A ball this season and got suspended for breaking organizational rules (whatever that means). Rutherford is too far from the majors to fit with our rebuild strategy and has never played above rookie ball. They have other interesting prospects, but the quality takes a significant step down from there. Torres + Frazier ++ gets them Quintana. Anything less hard pass

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 08:45 AM) But its not just "plenty of GM's." It's the GM of the Yankees. Anything they say or do is reported. You can't go a day on MLBtr without seeing some sort of Yankees update. I see the Yankees interest being that of the Braves on Chris Sale. They are checking in to see what the price would be, and then never really getting serious by putting premium players on the table.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 20, 2016 -> 08:42 AM) Plenty of GM's go about doing their due diligence without it getting reported by the media. Cashman is more serious than many are letting on. If he's serious about acquiring him, then Torres + Frazier starts the conversation. Sox should not settle for anything less Judge and Mateo's stock are both down, and Rutherford is minimum 3+ seasons away from the majors

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 11:03 PM) Moncada's 20 at-bats and the results of the AFL are getting way too much play here. Isn't that one of the largest reasons we ended up with Tyler Flowers? Another example, Adam Engel was the best hitter there (average-wise) and he's barely a Top 20 prospect with the Sox now...on the other hand, there's already so much hype around Torres, it's now or never to get a player like that before he repeats it at AA and gets called up at the end of the year. Of course, for any team holding such Top 30ish players, there's the equal danger he tanks like AJ Reed or Gallo and loses a lot of his luster in quick fashion. Judge strikes out far too often for my liking. I would be more lenient with a small sample size, but he turns 25 in a few months and is not exactly a "young" prospect anymore. Torres + Frazier ++ is what it would take, and I do not think the Yankees are willing to pay that price

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 12:32 PM) I saw Hahn's comments. I'm just saying the two Nats pitchers still could be with the team opening day if we want to contend. With Holland that would be Q, Rodon, Holland, two Nats and Shields for bullpen. Not a bad staff. Even if you just want to rush one of the Nats starters it's 'possibly' a playoff staff. Then if we keep all the vets. Frazier at third, Anderson at ss, new superstar at second and Abreu at first. That's a playoff infield. I'll give you props, the rest of the team would be miserable still: Melky, gulp in left; Avi in right, I don't even know who the other outfielder is right now. Albeit that's a miserable outfield. Davidson DH. Narvaez catcher. p.s. Once we dump Melky and Avi ... do we even have bodies to play the outfield? Coats, Liriano, Tilson? To go with our lousy catcher situation and lousy DH situation? We might not win 40 games. Why? Bullpen would be amongst the worst in baseball after dropping robertson and Nate and outfield among the worst in baseball history. However if u keep everybody on the current roster now and add a free agent outfielder, we could make playoffs if Davidson is a great DH. It would be unforgivable to waste a season of service time for moncada, giolito and lopez by having them make the roster out of spring training.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 07:30 PM) Don't think they have the size to compete with the Raiders My point was that i don't think the GM's in MLB value him that high thus the Sox will not get the return that value justifies and no trade will happen. If the sox don't get what they want them keep him. He will still have lots of value at the deadline and next off-season

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 05:08 PM) Most people in baseball realize that the abstract concept of WAR, while valuable, is not the only way to value a pitcher. Most also realize that Q while a very good pitcher, is not the 4th best in baseball. However, the White sox will stick to this point as well because they really only wanted to trade Sale not Q. Thus we will hear from the Fo that they didn't deal Q because they couldn't get value for him. IMHO. I'm not suggesting war is the be all, end all to evaluate a player, but rather to illustrate how valuable he really is. I highly doubt a deal with New York gets done. I'm surprised we have not heard more Rockies rumors. They can't go into this season with their current pitching staff and expect to contend for the NFL west

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:31 PM) A lot of you guys are blood drunk on the Eaton trade, and if Quintana is traded you're setting yourselves up to be really disappointed. Like if the Sox get a Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge and Wilkerman Garcia package for Q will you seriously be upset? Because judging by the demands of two of the top three prospects from the best farm system in baseball you're gonna be devastated by whatever return they get for him. The Red Sox didn't even have to give up two of their top three and they do not have the same caliber system the Yankees have (nor are they as invested in the contributions of their minor leaguers as the Yankees currently are). I actually disagree. Quintana posted the 4th best WAR in the American League. We wisely held out for an excellent return in exchange for Sale, why should we settle on Quintana? Judge's value is down in my opinion. He will be 25 years old this season and strikes out at a concerning rate. He struck out 44% of the time in 27 major league games. I might overlook this small sample size more if Judge were 20/21/22 years old, but at 25 years old it is more concerning. He will only ever be average at best defensively, likely regressing quickly due to his huge size. I don't like him as a fit. Wilkerman posted a .539 OPS in rookie ball. Yes, he is young for the level, but it shows how far he is away from sniffing the mlb level...if ever

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:26 PM) I expect better seasons from Frazier and Abreu. I expect Rodon to take a big step forward. I expect Shields to be less of a pumpkin. I don't think they'll be good, but I don't think it is that crazy that this team could be around .500 June 1 adding a Colby Rasmus, and a DH (there are plenty of options). I don't think its likely, but its possible. .500 by June first would mean that everything possible goes right for the White Sox You're asking a ton of Gonzalez, Shields and Holland plus the bullpen. The offense could be better if Abreu and Frazier get hot, Anderson and Melky hit, but Avi and catcher will likely be black holes

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:17 PM) It's better than the Sale return. Torres Rutherford > Kopech Adams >>> Basabe and Diaz I disagree that Rutherford > Kopech Kopech moved up to the mlb.com #30 overall ranking at the end of season. I would put them relatively close in terms of value right now. Adams has a great season, but he profiles more as a reliever long term. Scouts are uncertain whether he will stick as a starter. Basabe is still young and if he can improve his hit tool could be a starting center fielder down the line. Diaz throws upper 90's and is a good gamble as the final piece to the Sale deal Moncada > Torres Kopech = Rutherford (Rutherford is further away from the mlb) Adams possibly a tick better than Basabe and Diaz, but not by a ton.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:12 PM) Both Callis and Law said Torres was going to be Top 5 or Top 10 on their updated lists. i know he's farther off than the other guys but that kind of ranking puts him only a step down from the Benintendi/Swanson/Bregman group if not right there with them. Benintendi, Swanson and Bregman are all better prospects than Torres is right now Torres could reach that level if he performs well in 2016, but he has never played above A+ ball How he performs this year in AA will be very telling as to where he stands as a prospect against significantly improved competition

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:08 PM) I could see a realistic deal being Torres/Rutherford/Adams. Feels considerably light

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 03:59 PM) You know its pretty difficult to asses where these guys are going to land until the lists actually come out, but right now judging by the remarks of a lot of people in the business of following prospects and their stocks there is a ton of helium on Torres and Kapreilian from their success in the AFL. Rutherford had an OPS over 1.000 as a 19 year old in rookie ball, so his trajectory has his stock pretty high too. I'm not knocking Rutherford, but at age 18 he is very far away from contributing at the mlb level. He will likely start the season at low A ball, possibly sniffing high A by end of this season at best. He then would need at least a full season in AA and another full season at AAA before getting the call to the bigs in 2020, late 2019 at earliest. I'm not sure the Sox see that as lining up with their plan to contend. He's a very good long term prospect, but I feel like we want to target prospects closer to the majors. Kaprielian is decent, but has barely thrown any minor league innings due to injury. He's far off being a Q centerpiece

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 03:55 PM) And it doesn't sound like Hahn wants to deal him for less than what they received for Sale as well. Teams know what the pricetag is Colorado price = Rodgers + Hoffman or Pint + Tapia or Marquez or Freeland Houston Price = Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez or Martes+ Tucker + Musgrove New York Price = Torres + Frazier + One or two more good prospects