OmarComing25

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 05:57 PM) Yes. That's why I'm not a huge fan of sabermetric statistics. They're so subjective. Stats like wins, losses, walks, strikeouts, ERA, K/BB ratio, etc are concrete and will always be the same no matter that website you're on. Sabermetric stats aren't. I guess I'm more of a traditionalist myself, but I just can't get behind supporting sabermetric stats until there is a clear way to make and evaluate them without there being a gray area. It's baseball, there's more variance and randomness in this sport than any other (which makes it by far the most difficult sport to bet on). There will never not be a gray area, but sabremetrics has come a long way in being able to explain some of that gray area. Those stats you listed might stay the same on every site you're on, but there's a huge gray area in how baseball players come to get many of those stats. A 3.50 ERA for one pitcher is not the same as a 3.50 ERA for another pitcher, there's a lot of gray in how each pitcher reached that number.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 05:57 PM) Makes perfect sense, especially if you think Eaton has peaked, which I do. I don't like him long term for this team unless we decide to sign a bunch of boppers. Eaton has very good minor league numbers too, it's not like he's come out of nowhere. I'm not sure why you think he's peaked.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 05:40 PM) Sorry, I rather have Trayce out there full time and see him learn the ropes. Eaton is a nice player to have, but is the type if player you should dump if you have a bad team. I'd trade him in a package. That makes zero sense.

But what if we make the playoffs?

Castro has been great the past month. No one wanted him at the trade deadline, but now the Cubs might be able to find a taker for him in the off-season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 03:45 PM) Actually they both take into account defense but they do so in different ways. It's really a remarkable difference and I've been struggling to explain it since it was pointed out last month - the White Sox pitchers are vastly worse on Baseball Reference WAR than in Fangraphs WAR while the defense it's the opposite. This isn't just the defense, as other poor defensive teams don't show the same effect, it is something unique to the 2015 white sox. Somehow they're giving up a ton more hits and runs than you'd expect for a team giving up as few walks and getting as many strikeouts as they have. Baseball-Reference generally is more "what actually happens on the field" while fangraphs is thought of more as "what should have happened", so you could say that they're just getting unlucky, but that's unbelievable for an entire staff for an entire season to me - that seems like something far more systematic. They're giving up more hits than they should. Some of my guesses are "poor defensive positioning", or "Pitchers that are really bad at pitching to their defense and are really stubborn" but honestly I'm still waiting for a good explanation. I thought Fangraphs more or less ignored defense, because it assumes pitchers have no control over balls in play. To address your second point though, our whole staff isn't getting unlucky, Sale and Samardzija have FIPs much better than their ERAs (though Sale's gap is closing with all the bombs he's been giving up lately). However Rodon, Quintana, and Danks have relatively very little differences (Quintana is at 0.27, Danks and Rodon are at 0.02). Our bullpen is actually outperforming its FIP (3.64 ERA, 3.85 FIP), so you could actually argue that our relievers have been lucky. But an entire staff could very well get "unlucky" if the defense is s*** in terms of underperforming their peripherals.

Let's hope Cole can pitch as well on October 7th as he did today.

It all really depends on what you define as a #1 pitcher. Some people see it as only pitchers who could compete for the Cy Young year in and year out, which makes it a very small group. Others see it as the top 30 SP in the game. Q qualifies in the second group for sure, but not by the first.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 03:14 PM) That's what I said a few posts up. There is no doubt in my mind that they would've preferred Rodon. Unfortunately, Schwarber worked out for them too. Bit too early to say that these moves worked out for both Rodon and Schwarber. Still a lot that could happen.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 03:06 PM) Not only that, they had a team pass on Bryant, Samardzija turn down their offer for an extension, and got a Cy Young award guy out of nowhere for nothing. So huge breaks get them the second WC. Don't forget defrauding the Padres for Rizzo. A couple of these things go differently, and the Cubs are still in rebuilding mode.

I don't understand the "hindsight" comments either. Even with hindsight we still take Rodon over Schwarber.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 02:46 PM) Here's an article I caught last year trying to qualify "average WAR" as a function of "spot in the rotation". Basically if you stuck Quintana's numbers into there he's roughly a strong #2 starter who is unusually reliable and healthy so far in his career. Under that criteria (#1 as >6 WAR), this is the number of SP that qualified for that spot per season in the last decade: 2014: 4 2013: 5 2012: 2 2011: 6 2010: 3 2009: 7 2008: 5 2007: 3 2006: 3 2005: 6 (Buehrle missed the cutoff by 0.1) This criteria eliminates basically everyone but 4 pitchers on average every season from being considered a #1 pitcher.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 02:07 PM) Because he has 35+ home run power and there is nothing in our entire system that is projecting that except the lottery ticket that Hawkins figures it out. OK but I don't understand how a DH who hits 35 HR would be more valuable than a top of the rotation SP who throws left-handed.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 02:24 PM) Already at a decade Haha not even close. The Pirates didn't have a winning season for 20 years. The Royals never came close to the playoffs over their period of futility. In the past decade we've made the playoffs and came very close three other times.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 01:59 PM) Honestly I'd probably take Schwarber over Rodon. Why? If he had any defensive value then I could understand it, but he can't hit lefties and would be our DH. After his hot start he's hitting .159/.278/.402 in his last 30 games with 40 Ks.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 01:34 PM) Should have, or questioned with hindsight whether they would have taken Schwarber? I questioned that, but that doesn't mean I think they should have. Just curious, who said they should have taken Schwarber? Kiley McDaniel on Fangraphs said that Schwarber would go #1 if they re-did the 2014 draft.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 01:34 PM) I would still be depressed, but that would be easier to handle because it would at least shut up the people that say that Arrieta is better than Sale. 1 start wouldn't shut anyone up.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 01:30 PM) Nothing would make me happier than to see Arrieta fall apart in the Wild Card game. What if he falls apart but the Cubs light up Cole and win anyway?

I too think Rodon's a bit low at #9, but at least he's ahead of Schwarber. I can't believe some people think we should have drafted him over Rodon last year.

Eaton is 17th in the MLB this year in baserunning value according to Fangraphs. There's more to it than just stealing bases.

The Marlins are a great example of why I think some people get too hung up on titles, especially in a sport with playoffs that are as random as baseball. The Marlins had two lucky playoff runs when they didn't even win their division, and otherwise have been one of the worst-run franchises in sports. But because of those two titles some people are willing to give them a pass.

Career Walks at time of 1,000th Career K Chris Sale: 214 Felix Hernandez: 342 Clayton Kershaw: 345 Sandy Koufax: 515 Nolan Ryan: 580 Randy Johnson: 584

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 07:29 PM) Since June 19, basically excluding his first month, Sanchez has hit a whopping .263 with a .697 OPS. You're right, if those numbers are the best he can do, it is offensive to lump him in with Rodon. Agreed about Rodon, but with his defense I'd definitely take a ~.700 OPS from Sanchez.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 09:31 PM) I have casually noticed that he tends to get hit the hardest the second time through the lineup, and these numbers support that claim. Thanks for the post. Those are Abreu's numbers, just to be clear.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:57 PM) Seems like he struggles late in games. No stats to back that up Innings 1-3: .285/.346/.509 Innings 4-6: .332/.379/.608 Innings 7-9: .252/.304/.387 Looks like you're right.