Dominikk85

Not worried about his mlb stats, trout just had a 87 wRC+ his first 135 mlb PAs. However I'm a little worried that he hasn't really lowered his K rate in AAA this year. He is still very young but I would like to see at least some improvement in that regard. Still if he can stay at 30% in the majors while keeping the walks up and hitting for some power he will be at least a solid player even if it is with a lowish average. And if he can lower it to 23-24% he can become a star. Bryant also struck out 30% in the minors and his first year and then improved to low 20s. That improvement is rare and most do not make it above A ball but it can happen.

If otani is really coming over next year he isn't doing it for the money and could just as well take 300k instead of 10m. I think the most important thing for him is finding a team in mlb that gives him a chance to hit at least semi full time (400+ PAs or so). For a player like him 10m is really a chump change. If he was in for the money he would wait 2 years and get a 250+M contract.

Heyward is a plus plus defender at a corner and can also play cf if you need to while garcia is really bad with the glove. It is true that avi right now has about a peak heyward season with the bat but it is his first of that caliber and aided by a high babip. But even if he was a better hitter than heyward there still would be that massive defensive gap. Team now consider outfield defense a lot and the time when you only cared about the bat of corner outfield is over. Still the deal looks bad now but only because heyward declined from a 110 ops+ hitter to a replacement level hitter.

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Aug 24, 2017 -> 09:43 PM) Wouldn't you be absolutely thrilled with a draft pick that results in a Paul Konerko like player? Absolutely, if you are sure seth beer becomes Paul konerko you take him. The problem is that if a corner bat just turns out to be a little bit less but still solid there isn't any other value outside of the bat and a first baseman with a 105 wRC+ is almost a replacement level hitter even though his bat has developed quite good (but not great). That means the bar for such a bat is very high which is why most try to avoid it with a top5 pick. You only take beer top3 if you are really sure that he is by far the best bat in the draft by some margin.

I think the one pick is gone to the Phillies. Now just make sure the A's or reds don't overtake you. 2 or 3 is a very nice pick but it would suck to fall to 4 or 5 because then the options and also the bonus pool money gets quite a bit worse.

Otani would be stupid to come over, financially that would be a terrible decision. Not only he only gets a dime for signing but the worst thing is that he is under control for 6 years meaning at least 4 years of s***ty pay. Actually he makes now in japan as much per year as he would make in his first 3 years combined in mlb. If he has any brain or his agent has he stays two more years in japan and then signs a 300m deal. Of course he could get injured but don't forget he makes more in japan now than the mlb minimum so even in that case he would be better off staying in japan.

If there is a semi decent offer he will be traded.however of course the market for corner type players is terrible currently so I doubt it will be a top100 prospect. I would be ok with a 45 prospect (maybe a high velo future relief arm) and maybe a long shot lotto ticket.

To me I think he needs to hit the ball more in the air. He does take his walks but with his strikeouts he hits too many grounders and thus doesn't get enough to his raw power although it leads to high babips. I think he will improve his Ks some but not under like 27-28%. For that profile to work best I think he should have a profile like adam dunn. That sounds scary as a sox fan becausebut you know the old dunn but prime dunn regularly had an ops of over 900 with a high 20s K rate. More fly balls might mean a slightly lower average but if he hits 40 hr with 100 walks and a 250 average like prime dunn that would be a great hitter. So I think the best for him would be to get the ball more off the ground (low 40s% instead of high 40s)

Why not? The sox leaned on bats the last two drafts and rightfully so but still they could use another tor prospect as some of their top guys are talented but risky. I would prefer a highly talented up the middle guy but if you only have the choice between another unathletic masher and a high profile pitcher I might even prefer the pitcher. Don't get me wrong, it was good to get some save, polished bats into the system because the sox were lacking that but now they probably need other types.

I don't think the return is that good but then again there wasn't really a market for Gonzalez. At least the guy has physical tools evidenced by his second round selection even though he has not hit in pro ball. Still I don't expect him to make the majors, his k to bb rate is really bad and while he has some raw pop it hasn't translated to game power. Problem is is that he hits too many grounders (50%), he needs to elevate more to maybe become a poor mans roughned odor.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 03:41 PM) I suppose this is as good a place as any, to get a clarification on a question I have: Using MLB.com's "Pipeline," I don't understand how they derive some of these "overall" grades. For example, here is Alec Hansen's line: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50. How do they compute a 50 overall grade from those numbers? The overall grade is not computed from the single values but is how good you expect the pitcher to be. Basically an estimation of ERA factoring whether he will be a starter or reliever (relievers basically never get a grade above 50 no matter how good they are). 50 means future average regular, that is the grade low level top 100 prospects (75-100) get usually. 45 means like utility but for a reliever that is a solid grade.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 01:40 PM) Not a big deal, but does it irk anyone else that the day a prospect "graduates," they are worth zero in these kinds of rankings? I get that they have become major leaguers, and that lists like this are just a snapshot in time, but I would love some kind of system that uses weights of some kind so players could still factor in in some form. It's not like a guy like Moncada is a prospect with X major league at bats and not a prospect with X+1 major league at bats. It'd be cool if there was room for scale or gradient. Actually not true. Players remain in the prospect list until they have have exceeded their rookie status (130 ab or 50 ip)

Both are excellent. The one thing atlanta has is that their prospects have performed, so the braves haven proven to be able to improve their prospects. The jury on that is still out for the sox. Doesn't mean it has to be bad. In the last years they did a solid job with pitching and not so much with hitting but then again they also didn't have prospects who were that talented. Really player developement will make the difference here.the sox basocally only acquired prospects and now they need to develope them. If they do well with that next year and lopez, giolito, rutherford, moncada and others take a step forward I believe they have the best raw talent and could overtake the braves. But if the prospects stagnate and the braves take another jump the braves will be the best.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 10, 2017 -> 05:17 PM) http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2017/ALL Tucker went from 9 to 18 homers (so far) this season but he's not exactly tearing up AA. 785 ops. Will be 21 at beginning of next year. He could of course develope power and many hs players take longer to get to their power and he is only in his second year. Trout also only hit 10 hr his second year. The reason for concern is more that Rutherford was old for a hs draftee so people expected the power to come quicker as most power growth tends to come from 18-20. However part of his lack of power is swing plane/launch angle so maybe there might be some free power there when developing his swing and decreasing his grounder rate.

I only consider beer Top3 when he truely has another monster year and is far and away the best college hitter. If he has another good year like last season (1000 ops) he is good but not top10 talent. But if he has a 1200 ops like in his first year his bat might be so good that position doesn't matter so much. But at a 1000 ops he is just another good college bat he might be a corner of best case and 1b/DH worst case. If I get beer with a 1000 ops and a shortstop with a little 950 ops the choice should be pretty easily against beer. But if he truely dominates and is heads and holders above any other college hitter he might be worth taking a shot.

Sox team (title too long) Obviously moncada, rodon and hopefully anderson but who else could play a role? I'm not just talking about starters but also guys who might only have a backup role (having a 1 WAR 25th man over a minus 1 win guy can be crucial too). Having negative war back end players was one of the problems of the Sox teams of the last years so finding those depth pieces on waivers, rule 5 or minor trades as well as the current roster is important too albeit of course the main focus is finding above average starters which should be around already in the minors to a large extent.

I think it was good that they got the sluggers because it means you at least likely get 2-3 mlb bats who can slug a little and get on base. Ideally you have those guys at premium positions but having them at the corners is better than nothing,those guys are relatively safe. But now it is really enough of those types, they say there is a spot for a guy that can hit but it gets a lot easier to find a spot for a premium athlete. Of course the athletes had their failures with athletes who can't hit and it was good they got polished hitters but at top3 overall I think they might be able to get a guy who is an athlete AND can hit already.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 5, 2017 -> 07:33 AM) I personally think we get diminishing returns with more pitching. We already have a glut of starters in the pipeline and adding another high end one means someone like Hansen or Giolito loses a potential opportunity. Now, if Singer is hands down the best player, by all means take him, but if it's close I'd definitely lean position player. An elite SS prospect like Turang would be a huge get for the system and provide us with a potential impact player a few years into our competive window. I would also prefer a middle infielder but if there is not a high level one left I would prefer another TOR prospect over another corner type slugger. You can never have enough pitchers and middle infielders.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 28, 2017 -> 08:31 AM) Ok...I don't have any idea why that makes the Sox top farm system riskier then other teams top farm systems? I could go down the list with any organizations top prospects (including top 1/2) and do very similar assessments. Easy to do. No one knows. If anything, I would point out that the Sox are likely somewhat unique in how much of their farm system has been due to trades (vs. a true ability to draft and develop). So if you think of the Dodgers or Yankees, they built their farm systems from the ground up (largely). The sox system is definitely on the riskier side. Any prospect is a risk but pitchers with command issues and hitters with contact issues are more risky. I think eloy is pretty low risk but many of the other top10 prospects are pretty risky, tools over performance. The tools are off the chart though, if they are properly developed they could become really good.

The outlook for teams with a good farm is very good but the cubs were pretty much a best case outcome.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 28, 2017 -> 07:24 AM) I was just looking at his numbers (specifically K% and BB%) and this season's numbers really aren't too far from his career numbers. They're fairly consistent from year to year. Maybe he has hit into some bad luck? Power is also down, 200 iso last year, very bad 130 ISO this year.

Regarding the cubs, epstein did great job but they also had some luck. Almost all of theit top prospects panned out except for soler and even he netted them an elite closer in return. They had a non prospect hendricks who became very good, a mid level top100 prospect rizzo who became a superstar and a failed starter in arrieta who had a good arm and then also turned it around in his late 20s and became a superstar. Cubs rebuild was done well but it also was like a 90th percentile outcome with almost anyone reaching close to their ceiling.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/08/...e53wcI/amp.html According to this article they did pretty well

Definitely a good depth piece for the top15 of the system. I don't think they sox will have a problem at 1b or DH in the next years:).

Nice get. I think he was overranked a little because he doesn't have great batspeed or power to play as a regular at first but he has solid bat to ball skills and can take a walk. Probably could become a platoon dh/1b at the mlb level.