Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 12:46 PM) If anything the AL may be a better landing spot for him because his bat can play DH on off-days. Or maybe the NL is better because of double switches and pinch hitting. Or maybe Otani cant pinch hit. Or maybe he cant hit at all and this two-way player nonsense is just the same "mysterious talent from the orient with an historic, one-of-a-kind gamebreaking skill" myth that the gyroball was. The issue isn't money, they most he can make from the Sox is $4.75m (and Sox will not be players at all in LatAm for a year). Most he can get from anybody is $5.75m from the small market teams. So he'll go where he just wants to go. The problem with letting him hit when he pitches, is once he comes out, you don't have a DH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:28 PM) The problem with letting him hit when he pitches, is once he comes out, you don't have a DH. So, you'd have a pinch hitter a couple of times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 03:36 PM) So, you'd have a pinch hitter a couple of times. Not ideal. I am all for the Sox getting him, but is there really any chance? Yankees, Boston will be able to sign him, and he will make Sale and Q seem pricey. The $20 million max posting fee won't scare anyone either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Is there a chance? No. But they'd be stupid not to try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con te Giolito Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not ideal. I am all for the Sox getting him, but is there really any chance? Yankees, Boston will be able to sign him, and he will make Sale and Q seem pricey. The $20 million max posting fee won't scare anyone either. Well they are literally bound by the CBA (Sox are too) to how much they can sign him. Money is really not an object in the Otani negotiations if he comes over in the next 3 offseasons. MLB will be extremely wary of him signing a quick extension too. He'll have to wait until at least his arb years, and it'll have to be merited. Even then the league may have problems with it. There's really no circumventing the allotment. It'll be a strange saga to say the least. He'll just go wherever he feels like the best. Though "fixing" Giolito, having Rodon go off and seeing the other arms in the system make big strides would sure be a nice selling point for the White Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Doubt it. IF he signs, guarantee it will be a bridge deal until he is 25. League instead of being upset, will be thrilled that their shortsighted move did not end up screwing them out of the added revenue of the Japanese Leagues' Babe Ruth coming to play in the MLB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 03:44 PM) Well they are literally bound by the CBA (Sox are too) to how much they can sign him. Money is really not an object in the Otani negotiations if he comes over in the next 3 offseasons. MLB will be extremely wary of him signing a quick extension too. He'll have to wait until at least his arb years, and it'll have to be merited. Even then the league may have problems with it. There's really no circumventing the allotment. It'll be a strange saga to say the least. He'll just go wherever he feels like the best. Though "fixing" Giolito, having Rodon go off and seeing the other arms in the system make big strides would sure be a nice selling point for the White Sox. The problem is if the money is the same, the White Sox have the same problem as about 25 other teams, Yankees, Boston, Dodgers, Cubs are where it seems 99% of international players want to play if they could choose their teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Would you rather sign Otani and no LA players, thus hurting your presence in LA? Or would you not sign Otani and sign LA players to keep your LA presence strong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 I imagine a few selling points: - Large Japanese expat population/Japanese Americans - Team willing to let him play 2 positions - Location - Media Market - How good team is No idea how any of those would be weighted for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:22 PM) I imagine a few selling points: - Large Japanese expat population/Japanese Americans - Team willing to let him play 2 positions - Location - Media Market - How good team is No idea how any of those would be weighted for him. We definitely don't fall into a few of those categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:21 PM) Would you rather sign Otani and no LA players, thus hurting your presence in LA? Or would you not sign Otani and sign LA players to keep your LA presence strong? It would be just for a year. Teams can't horde players there anymore. The Sox thought with the interest in Japan, giving Tanaka $100 million would have more than paid for itself. With the new rules, whoever gets Otani is going to improve their team and make a ton of money. If he somehow signed with a middle market or small market team, it really would be franchise altering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 If someone sign Otani to a say a crazy $40 million signing bonus due to his restrictions, the team would have to pay an additional $40 million for a tax penalty correct? Or did these rules change in the new CBA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:21 PM) Would you rather sign Otani and no LA players, thus hurting your presence in LA? Or would you not sign Otani and sign LA players to keep your LA presence strong? Otani all day. ALL DAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:27 PM) If someone sign Otani to a say a crazy $40 million signing bonus due to his restrictions, the team would have to pay an additional $40 million for a tax penalty correct? Or did these rules change in the new CBA? Cap on the signing. Can not go over 10 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:27 PM) If someone sign Otani to a say a crazy $40 million signing bonus due to his restrictions, the team would have to pay an additional $40 million for a tax penalty correct? Or did these rules change in the new CBA? As I understand it, you cannot go over the international caps anymore. Period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con te Giolito Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The problem is if the money is the same, the White Sox have the same problem as about 25 other teams, Yankees, Boston, Dodgers, Cubs are where it seems 99% of international players want to play if they could choose their teams. Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Royals, Athletics, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, and Reds are all in the penalty. Cant sign a player for more than $300K. You'd figure he'd want more than that right? And if he's willing to wait until July 6 2018 for those teams to jump back into the mix he may as well wait another year and a half to be completely exempted and get his massive contract the old fashioned way. Still competing against Boston and New York at least though, not to mention everyone else in baseball throwing their hats into the ring. Definite longshot and hopefully Sox will have an idea of what their chances are by July this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 04:50 PM) Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Royals, Athletics, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, and Reds are all in the penalty. Cant sign a player for more than $300K. You'd figure he'd want more than that right? And if he's willing to wait until July 6 2018 for those teams to jump back into the mix he may as well wait another year and a half to be completely exempted and get his massive contract the old fashioned way. Still competing against Boston and New York at least though, not to mention everyone else in baseball throwing their hats into the ring. Definite longshot and hopefully Sox will have an idea of what their chances are by July this year. So how does that work? When does the July 2nd pool money reset? If this guy is posted in December 2017, does that mean they couldn't sign anyone next summer to max out or the following summer? I just don't understand why he wouldn't wait. Edited December 13, 2016 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 03:38 PM) Not ideal. I am all for the Sox getting him, but is there really any chance? Yankees, Boston will be able to sign him, and he will make Sale and Q seem pricey. The $20 million max posting fee won't scare anyone either. You would have to think that if the contract is going to be the same each team, he would go where he could make the most endorsement/personal appearance money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con te Giolito Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So how does that work? When does the July 2nd pool money reset? If this guy is posted in December 2017, does that mean they couldn't sign anyone next summer to max out or the following summer? I just don't understand why he wouldn't wait. Honestly, I dont know why he isn't waiting until 2019 when he can get $200m having never pitched an MLB inning. But if cannot wait that long he sure as hell isn't going to wait another year just because he really likes the Dodgers or Cubs. My honest guess is this is a negotiating ploy with MLB to try and get them to let him over as an exception and that he wont actually post unless an exception is made. In that case the ideal world for the White Sox is an exception being made for Otani, but the allotment penalties still being enforced in regards to his bidding war. The Sox committed payroll for 2019 is almost nothing, they really could make a play for him next offseason if they're allowed spend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 05:04 PM) Honestly, I dont know why he isn't waiting until 2019 when he can get $200m having never pitched an MLB inning. But if cannot wait that long he sure as hell isn't going to wait another year just because he really likes the Dodgers or Cubs. My honest guess is this is a negotiating ploy with MLB to try and get them to let him over as an exception and that he wont actually post unless an exception is made. In that case the ideal world for the White Sox is an exception being made for Otani, but the allotment penalties still being enforced in regards to his bidding war. The Sox committed payroll for 2019 is almost nothing, they really could make a play for him next offseason if they're allowed spend. Yes but my question is if teams want to max him if he gets posted a year from now, do they have to not sign anyone the summer of 2017? That seems like a huge risk for any team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 05:23 PM) Yes but my question is if teams want to max him if he gets posted a year from now, do they have to not sign anyone the summer of 2017? That seems like a huge risk for any team. The signing period would be what, July 2017-June 2018? So yeah, you couldn't sign anyone really next summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 06:05 PM) The signing period would be what, July 2017-June 2018? So yeah, you couldn't sign anyone really next summer. Maybe the Sox can use this to their advantage in Latin America. If the big boys sit out Latin America for the their shot, trade for some more bonus money, and with all of the teams that cannot sign guys over $300k, you have a shot at a huge haul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con te Giolito Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 (edited) With so many teams in the penalty (I do not believe they can trade their pool money) and so many times likely swept away by the idea of nabbing Otani on the cheap that tradeable bonus pool money will be an incredibly hot commodity. This is not to the Sox disadvantage though. Assuming the Sox are going to hold some pieces for the deadline to sell the tradeable allotment dynamic does give them another slight edge to grabbing Otani or going for a massive LA class. Those deadline deals may be the perfect time to really load up on international bucks. Assuming Otani is going to demand the absolute max this means the Sox would only be competing against other teams who also traded for a max allotment. And every team that trades for a max allotment, thus joining the Otani sweepstakes, another one must fall out. The tradeable allotments are a zero sum game. This is something to possibly lord over deadline buyers heads when looking to possibly sell on Nate Jones, Melky or whoever. Wouldn't it be nice to eliminate the Red Sox and gain the max allotment in one fell swoop? And with Dick Allen's idea of flanking everyone for LA talent while the rest of the big players are all in a scrum over Otani that is a very flexible pile of dough. Conversely the Sox allotment also gains a ton of value and can be sold for more advanced propects. However I'm not sure that's a sound strategy considering the Sox new direction. Either way, this is one of those big hidden advantages of going full rebuild for even one season. The Sox can sit around playing 3D chess over bonus pool money while almost everyone else has to at least balance their interest in jumping into this with MLB club needs. And specifically on this issue they aren't even competing with that many other rebuilding teams as the Padres, Reds, Braves and A's are all in the penalty next go around. Edited December 14, 2016 by Con te Giolito Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Good post. Success breeds/attracts more success. Excitement/energy/hunger is a good thing. Bringing in more Latin American prospects like Moncada, Lopez, Diaz and Basabe will make it just a bit easier to bring in other kids from those same areas/regions (see our Cuban success). We talk about the Sox not being the most attractive free agent destination, but that's counterbalanced by money and the fact that "open competition" for a lot of positions in the organization in the next couple of seasons will bring the cream of the crop to the top, especially in terms of the young pitching prospects all competing with each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Guys, I explained all of this in a thread last week that I started in Future Sox thread. Feel free to have a look. If Otani comes next summer, the most $$ that he can possibly from anyone is like $10 million. The most that a big market team can pay is $8.3 million. That's it. Those are the rules. And that would be an entire bonus pool minus guys making less than $10,000.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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