Also logical landing places for Abreu/Frazier/Cabrera

[shipps]

The question is getting players that will be on your next playoff team. If they aren't players that will be on that team, the next thing you worry about is valuation.

 

The next question is who is more likely to put up big numbers, Tyler Saladino or Todd Frazier to turn into a trade that will next you something? The answer to that question is who you will play.

 

Questions arent all going to be answered in a couple months let alone one off season. This is going to be fluid. I am not going to worry about who is going to play over those two because it will sort itself out. Either way I dont think its likely that either of the two play a big role in the future, even considering the player they may get in return for a trade. We are going to look our our org in a couple years and barely remember how we got from point A to point B. But hey, if guys want to discuss Saladino vs. Frazier have at it. Its a message board and we need something to talk about.

[ChiSox59]

As things currently stand, I think some of you guys are going to be disappointed with how the Sox play this. The offseason still has a long way to go. There are still a bunch of a FA available, which makes guys like Frazier / Melky / Lawrie more difficult to move. Perhaps once the FA pool continues to dwindle, we'll see a market develop for those guys, and they're ultimately moved.

 

But if Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Abreu and Quintana are on the team in April, I fully expect the Sox to try to compete. Stop gap OF, DH and C signed. Still plenty of options for the first two. Lawrie plays everyday at 2B until he gets hurt or Moncada pushes him to bench. Saladino (if healthy) is the super sub. The young arms come up in June.

 

Sox to reassess in late June, and move the impending FAs at that point if they're out of the race.

 

Honestly, at this point, that is what I expect.

[southsider2k5]

Tyler Saladin is not going to be a major contributor.

 

As I said earlier, even if Tyler Saladino turns into a starter for this version of the Chicago White Sox, he will be the type of starter that you are always looking to improve upon. He definitely won't be the type of starter that playoff teams are looking to trade for. He's Conor Gillaspie with a better glove at 3B.

[Tnetennba]

As things currently stand, I think some of you guys are going to be disappointed with how the Sox play this. The offseason still has a long way to go. There are still a bunch of a FA available, which makes guys like Frazier / Melky / Lawrie more difficult to move. Perhaps once the FA pool continues to dwindle, we'll see a market develop for those guys, and they're ultimately moved.

 

But if Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Abreu and Quintana are on the team in April, I fully expect the Sox to try to compete. Stop gap OF, DH and C signed. Still plenty of options for the first two. Lawrie plays everyday at 2B until he gets hurt or Moncada pushes him to bench. Saladino (if healthy) is the super sub. The young arms come up in June.

 

Sox to reassess in late June, and move the impending FAs at that point if they're out of the race.

 

Honestly, at this point, that is what I expect.

 

This is my fear as well.

[Thad Bosley]

As things currently stand, I think some of you guys are going to be disappointed with how the Sox play this. The offseason still has a long way to go. There are still a bunch of a FA available, which makes guys like Frazier / Melky / Lawrie more difficult to move. Perhaps once the FA pool continues to dwindle, we'll see a market develop for those guys, and they're ultimately moved.

 

But if Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Abreu and Quintana are on the team in April, I fully expect the Sox to try to compete. Stop gap OF, DH and C signed. Still plenty of options for the first two. Lawrie plays everyday at 2B until he gets hurt or Moncada pushes him to bench. Saladino (if healthy) is the super sub. The young arms come up in June.

 

Sox to reassess in late June, and move the impending FAs at that point if they're out of the race.

 

Honestly, at this point, that is what I expect.

I would have to respectfully disagree. I don't see how it can even be remotely realistic for the Sox or anyone to think they can compete with the current roster that, with Sale and Eaton in tow, were unable to win more than 78 games in the past four years, and that was with stop gap measures in place. How can they now be expected to even get close to even 78 wins, never mind compete, without their best pitcher and position player, and with yet another set of additions of the stop gap variety. It doesn't compute.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Thad Bosley

[southsider2k5]

As things currently stand, I think some of you guys are going to be disappointed with how the Sox play this. The offseason still has a long way to go. There are still a bunch of a FA available, which makes guys like Frazier / Melky / Lawrie more difficult to move. Perhaps once the FA pool continues to dwindle, we'll see a market develop for those guys, and they're ultimately moved.

 

But if Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Abreu and Quintana are on the team in April, I fully expect the Sox to try to compete. Stop gap OF, DH and C signed. Still plenty of options for the first two. Lawrie plays everyday at 2B until he gets hurt or Moncada pushes him to bench. Saladino (if healthy) is the super sub. The young arms come up in June.

 

Sox to reassess in late June, and move the impending FAs at that point if they're out of the race.

 

Honestly, at this point, that is what I expect.

 

I think it some point they take last bids on Q, and trade him for the best offer. They have gone really far down the trade path with him, especially in public, for him to come back now.

 

Even if they go into the season with a lot of those players, I don't see them adding to them in any significant way.

 

I fully expect Abreu and Lawrie to be on the opening day roster. Q I think there is about 10% chance. Frazier is not much higher, though I see a disappointing return to move him. Melky I think will be on the roster, as no one will really want him. Call it a 75% chance at return.

[Con te Giolito]

Melky is actually a pretty good player that a lot of teams that fancy themselves contenders could really use.

[GGajewski18]

I would have to respectfully disagree. I don't see how it can even be remotely realistic for the Sox or anyone to think they can compete with the current roster that, with Sale and Eaton in tow, were unable to win more than 78 games in the past four years, and that was with stop gap measures in place. How can they now be expected to even get close to even 78 wins, never mind compete, without their best pitcher and position player, and with yet another set of additions of the stop gap variety. It doesn't compute.

 

 

I think it some point they take last bids on Q, and trade him for the best offer. They have gone really far down the trade path with him, especially in public, for him to come back now.

 

Even if they go into the season with a lot of those players, I don't see them adding to them in any significant way.

 

I fully expect Abreu and Lawrie to be on the opening day roster. Q I think there is about 10% chance. Frazier is not much higher, though I see a disappointing return to move him. Melky I think will be on the roster, as no one will really want him. Call it a 75% chance at return.

 

I agree with both of you that there is 0 chance the Sox go and try and compete. Way too much smoke regarding a Quintana trade. He's the Sox best trade chip, have to hit on this deal, so there is incentive to be patient in the off season, but like ss2k said, they'll take final offers and deal him before the season without running the risk during the season.

 

Robertson and Frazier I see both being moved, but maybe closer to ST or in ST as injuries or players don't perform.

 

Melky is 100% on the roster come opening day imo, but he'll be a great deadline guy for playoff teams.

[illinilaw08]

I think it some point they take last bids on Q, and trade him for the best offer. They have gone really far down the trade path with him, especially in public, for him to come back now.

 

Even if they go into the season with a lot of those players, I don't see them adding to them in any significant way.

 

I fully expect Abreu and Lawrie to be on the opening day roster. Q I think there is about 10% chance. Frazier is not much higher, though I see a disappointing return to move him. Melky I think will be on the roster, as no one will really want him. Call it a 75% chance at return.

 

I think this is largely correct. The only point that I disagree on is Frazier. I think Frazier has a better chance to rebuild his value in season, and I don't see him really blocking any young guy the Sox want to try out (between 2B and 3B, should be able to get Saladino the ABs to figure out what you have). Right now, the right handed slugger market is pretty saturated. After those guys clear out, and if Frazier rakes early in the season, the return might go up at the deadline.

[Dick Allen]

Fraizer had a higher WAR than Trumbo last season. And higher than Cutch.

 

I find it hard to believe no one would eventually give up something decent for a 40 HR good clubhouse guy.

[southsider2k5]

Melky is actually a pretty good player that a lot of teams that fancy themselves contenders could really use.

 

Who is going to give something up for the right to pay Melky Cabrera $15 million to play for them next year?

[GGajewski18]

Fraizer had a higher WAR than Trumbo last season. And higher than Cutch.

 

I find it hard to believe no one would eventually give up something decent for a 40 HR good clubhouse guy.

 

Completely agree. Dude had a low average, but brings big power and reliable defense at a key position. We can get something good for Todd Frazier.

[southsider2k5]

Completely agree. Dude had a low average, but brings big power and reliable defense at a key position. We can get something good for Todd Frazier.

 

The reality of what is being offered doesn't support that.

[GGajewski18]

The reality of what is being offered doesn't support that.

 

How do you know what is being offered? You saw what the Nationals offered for Cutch, not saying we can get that deal, but I think we can get a couple players in the next tier of a Robles.

[Balta1701]

How do you know what is being offered? You saw what the Nationals offered for Cutch, not saying we can get that deal, but I think we can get a couple players in the next tier of a Robles.

You're going to be holding a Todd Frazier and getting a pick between the 2nd or 3rd round if you think you're getting anything close to a top 25 prospect in baseball. Or maybe having him pick up the QO.

[ChiSox59]

I would have to respectfully disagree. I don't see how it can even be remotely realistic for the Sox or anyone to think they can compete with the current roster that, with Sale and Eaton in tow, were unable to win more than 78 games in the past four years, and that was with stop gap measures in place. How can they now be expected to even get close to even 78 wins, never mind compete, without their best pitcher and position player, and with yet another set of additions of the stop gap variety. It doesn't compute.

 

Maybe "catch lightning in a bottle" is the better phrase to use. But basically just see how things play out April-June, and then reassess. I don't think there is a good chance of that team being within 5 games of .500 in mid June, but crazier things have happened. At that point, you can still trade Melky / Frazier / Lawrie. If the offers suck now, there is a chance that their value increases by June when teams are desperate for infielders with good (Frazier) and average (Lawrie) bats. By June, Melky's commitment is a much more palatable ~$8M. Maybe he can be moved for a decent piece at that point.

 

Trading them now for garbage that will never help the Sox doesn't do much for me. It's not like the Sox have a wealth of ML ready talent to take their spots outside of Saladino, who I still expect to get a good chunk of at bats as the super sub.

 

Adding two of Colby Rasmus, Michael Sanders, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, and Drew Stubbs would be cheap.

 

One of Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli to DH.

 

And add a Ryan Hanigan type to split the catching.

 

None of those guys will be all that expensive. All will be on one year deals. If the Sox are way out of things in June (which they likely will be), they'll likely be trade bait and teams love short term commitments to useful players.

 

I am not saying this is 100% the right way to go, but it is what I expect barring a Quintana trade, and I am OK with it. The team will actually be half ways decent to watch, and the team will be mostly dismantled in June and July when teams are desperate for upgrades. I think it makes a lot of sense in a market that has not developed for our short term bats.

 

 

I think it some point they take last bids on Q, and trade him for the best offer. They have gone really far down the trade path with him, especially in public, for him to come back now.

 

Even if they go into the season with a lot of those players, I don't see them adding to them in any significant way.

 

I fully expect Abreu and Lawrie to be on the opening day roster. Q I think there is about 10% chance. Frazier is not much higher, though I see a disappointing return to move him. Melky I think will be on the roster, as no one will really want him. Call it a 75% chance at return.

 

I just don't see the point in trading Quintana for the best offer right now, if the best offer isn't sufficient to the Sox. I don't think his value is going to decrease between now and a year from now. At some point, there is diminishing returns - I think saw that to some degree in the Sale trade, and I think you'd definitely see that in a Q trade. If someone bowls you over, by all means take the deal. But I think Rick is still in that mode. If the Q domino falls, then my thinking changes. At that point, the Sox pitching staff goes from OK to terrible, and at that point you may as well just take what you can get for Frazier, Melky and Lawrie before Opening Day.

[southsider2k5]

How do you know what is being offered? You saw what the Nationals offered for Cutch, not saying we can get that deal, but I think we can get a couple players in the next tier of a Robles.

 

The rumor was just out the end of last week of what the Sox were looking for, and it wasn't much. The fact that he is still here means they aren't even getting that much in the way of offers.

[southsider2k5]

Maybe "catch lightning in a bottle" is the better phrase to use. But basically just see how things play out April-June, and then reassess. I don't think there is a good chance of that team being within 5 games of .500 in mid June, but crazier things have happened. At that point, you can still trade Melky / Frazier / Lawrie. If the offers suck now, there is a chance that their value increases by June when teams are desperate for infielders with good (Frazier) and average (Lawrie) bats. By June, Melky's commitment is a much more palatable ~$8M. Maybe he can be moved for a decent piece at that point.

 

Trading them now for garbage that will never help the Sox doesn't do much for me. It's not like the Sox have a wealth of ML ready talent to take their spots outside of Saladino, who I still expect to get a good chunk of at bats as the super sub.

 

Adding two of Colby Rasmus, Michael Sanders, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, and Drew Stubbs would be cheap.

 

One of Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli to DH.

 

And add a Ryan Hanigan type to split the catching.

 

None of those guys will be all that expensive. All will be on one year deals. If the Sox are way out of things in June (which they likely will be), they'll likely be trade bait and teams love short term commitments to useful players.

 

I am not saying this is 100% the right way to go, but it is what I expect barring a Quintana trade, and I am OK with it. The team will actually be half ways decent to watch, and the team will be mostly dismantled in June and July when teams are desperate for upgrades. I think it makes a lot of sense in a market that has not developed for our short term bats.

 

 

 

 

I just don't see the point in trading Quintana for the best offer right now, if the best offer isn't sufficient to the Sox. I don't think his value is going to decrease between now and a year from now. At some point, there is diminishing returns - I think saw that to some degree in the Sale trade, and I think you'd definitely see that in a Q trade. If someone bowls you over, by all means take the deal. But I think Rick is still in that mode. If the Q domino falls, then my thinking changes. At that point, the Sox pitching staff goes from OK to terrible, and at that point you may as well just take what you can get for Frazier, Melky and Lawrie before Opening Day.

 

I don't like the idea, but I do think it is what they will do.

[GGajewski18]

The rumor was just out the end of last week of what the Sox were looking for, and it wasn't much. The fact that he is still here means they aren't even getting that much in the way of offers.

 

What rumor?

[southsider2k5]

What rumor?

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-...n-todd-frazier/

 

While Chicago has received more interest in Jose Abreu, there have been "due diligence" phone calls on Frazier because of his right-handed power. Frazier had 40 homers and 98 RBIs last season. The White Sox would like to move him for a prospect or two, but the fact Frazier can be a free agent after next season may be holding back his market.

[ChiSox59]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-...n-todd-frazier/

 

Pretty generic rumor. Prospect or two could is pretty vague. I expect the Sox would want one top 100 type guy for Frazier, plus another flyer.

[GGajewski18]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-...n-todd-frazier/

 

Ah ok. Very well could be. He'd make a great deadline deal like Melky would for a contender.

[southsider2k5]

Pretty generic rumor. Prospect or two could is pretty vague. I expect the Sox would want one top 100 type guy for Frazier, plus another flyer.

 

Seeing as he didn't specify a "top" prospect in any way, shape, or form, I don't read it that way.

[beautox]

Who is going to give something up for the right to pay Melky Cabrera $15 million to play for them next year?

All of Melky's value is tied right into contract, if the sox ate all 15m of it then sure i could see them getting a back half 80-100 prospect for him or a recent draftee that lost some of their shine similar to say Dillon Tate, but outside of that if the sox put him on waivers and he was claimed and JR didn't want to foot the bill he would be gone with no hassle.

[Balta1701]

All of Melky's value is tied right into contract, if the sox ate all 15m of it then sure i could see them getting a back half 80-100 prospect for him or a recent draftee that lost some of their shine similar to say Dillon Tate, but outside of that if the sox put him on waivers and he was claimed and JR didn't want to foot the bill he would be gone with no hassle.

For a quick check, put a name to it and see if it makes sense. Fulmer is someone we're familair with who is coming off a down year and is going to be in that 50-100 range, maybe a bit above your 80-100 but close enough. Melky Cabrera put up 1.6 fWAR last year, is projected for 1 fWAR this year, and was a replacement level player in 2015. Even considering that it's Cabrera's likely last "contract year" and he might have a history of good contract years, would you give up Carson Fulmer for an extra 2 WAR outfielder if you didn't have to pay for it, or would you just go sign Michael Saunders?