Probably because they couldn't trade him.

 

Lol! Probably...but still! He was a cut candidate imo...

Even the most careful analysis of advanced stats that support a regression theory cannot take into account the human element which can involve many factors ...attitude, injuries, conditioning and training, motivation, among others. In addition there are some players that seem to just figure things out at some point in their career. Some of those factors have been discussed, particularly with Avi's weight, conditioning, foot speed, and quickness. This guy was hauling to first base on ground balls last season and got to a lot of balls down the line and in the gap. I am excited to see him in RF with Eloy in LF. That could be two nice hitters in the corners for us over the next few years.

 

Actually, proponents of advanced statistics is completely aware of such extenuating circumstances, which is why they will use regression analysis to determine statistical significance behind these numbers. They are aware that these numbers aren't the gospel, but they can look at a guy who had a career year, looking at the underlying facts as to what happened, and make an educated guess as to what will happen the next year. That person could absolutely be wrong, and while I hope Avisail Garcia is a 4+ WAR player moving forward, I'm going to keep my expectations tempered moving forward until I see further success.

 

Unfortunately, several players in the majors "haul" to 1st, and many of them are bad. Hustle and work ethic are great things, but they alone do not make a player great. Avisail is going to have to repeat or take further steps forward if he is to convert many others into believers.

Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression."

There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own.

Mainly because that .392 BABIP he put up which was best in the AL maybe in all of MLB can't continue . It was phenomenally high > If you know anything about my stance on Avi ( which apparently you don't) I have been one of his biggest supporters over the years and even though the batting average is likely to drop he could improve his slugging which would make him just as valuable if not more so than last year. That won't be easy though since he goes to right and right center so often. Out of his 18 HR's last year maybe 1 or 2 went to left field if you don't count left center. He'll have to learn to yank the ball a little more often to hit more HR's .

Like everyone else, I'm just not sure. And I'm mostly not sure if the research and his numbers tell us as much of the true story as the logic behind them does. He had 2 off-years stemming from a major knee injury and the subsequent conditioning effects of...having a major knee injury. The "healthy numbers" have been there and been pretty consistent. Like Dam8610 pointed out earlier if you plug his missed month and a half numbers into his stat line from last hear you'd have a 25 HR player. Now would the average still be .330 with a month and a half of AB's factored in? Maybe, maybe not. But plugging in another 45 days of stats, an OF with a line of .315-.330/90/25/100?? would be in pretty elite company with other MLB OF's.

 

To see all things past/recent past lead to producing a line like this is encouraging since all the scouting that went into acquiring him pointed to this type of potential. He might have been this player all along underneath the injury/long rehab process. We certainly thought he was when we traded for him. Why on EARTH would we have resigned him after the absolute disaster the previous 2 seasons!?!? There's something more behind the numbers to Avi Garcia that we might not realize.

I thought it was a shoulder injury when he dove after a ball and landed wrong.

I thought it was a shoulder injury when he dove after a ball and landed wrong.

 

You know...you are right. I'm not sure what I was thinking and need to get my facts straight on that one. Still a major injury that could have full body (and mental) effects--but not quite as bad as if it were the leg. Good call.

What about an Abreu and Avi package to the Rockies? I'd assume they could get 4-5 prospects (not named Rodgers since Arenado and DJLM are free agents after next year) along with their 18 competitive balance pick.

 

How about: Pint, Dahl or Tapia, McMahon, Senzatella, and Almonte (bring him back)?

Edited December 6, 20178 yr by soxfan2014

What about an Abreu and Avi package to the Rockies? I'd assume they could get 4-5 prospects (not named Rodgers since Arenado and DJLM are free agents after next year) along with their 18 competitive balance pick.

 

How about: Pint, Dahl or Tapia, McMahon, Senzatella, and Almonte (bring him back)?

I really like welker, and I hope we get him if we do a deal with the Rockies. Would be interesting to see how much we could get for both.

What about an Abreu and Avi package to the Rockies? I'd assume they could get 4-5 prospects (not named Rodgers since Arenado and DJLM are free agents after next year) along with their 18 competitive balance pick.

 

How about: Pint, Dahl or Tapia, McMahon, Senzatella, and Almonte (bring him back)?

 

If we're trading both in the same package, Rodgers should be coming back

If we're trading both in the same package, Rodgers should be coming back

 

Yeah probably more likely only one would go to the Rockies then.

Lol! Probably...but still! He was a cut candidate imo...

 

He was definitely a non-tender candidate. Many did want exactly that to happen. Obviously not many of those people will fess up to that now, but they know who they are.

He was definitely a non-tender candidate. Many did want exactly that to happen. Obviously not many of those people will fess up to that now, but they know who they are.

 

Just for laughs...

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=3453142

Just for laughs...

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=3453142

 

It's funny how after an incredible season none of us are sold on Avi and can't wait to deal him for the first acceptable offer.

 

Great move to sign him for $3 million and give him that final shot