I think so.

 

I think the plan all along has been to tear the previous club down to build a cost controlled and talented young core. Then we supplement that core with key free agent additions to fill gaps.

 

When envisioning our 2020+ proverbial contender I just have a suspicion that Avi/Abreu are not part of that picture for the front office.

 

Abreu is a good clubhouse guy and leader, but I don't think we need to pay him $40 million or so over the next two seasons for him to babysit a 90+ loss team. Same goes for Avi.

 

If the sox are a 90+ loss team by 2019 the rebuild is already a fail. I can see them surprising people next year staying in the WC hunt.

How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more.

I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects.

This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers.

 

Maybe. I get where you are coming from, but we need to be realistic about Avi's breakout season. There are legitimate questions as to whether he can produce at close to 2017 levels moving forward.

 

If he is a stud as you are saying, that means you want to extend him, right? How much/long are you willing to offer him?

You keep saying a .353 wOBA but it was .385 . The .353 is xwOBA and the article says the difference between the two is not overly high enough to say the luck factor was as significant as just looking at BABIP might suggest.

 

You can't use the xwOBA to prove a point and then discredit it in the next breath. If you want to use his actual wOBA, then you're back into the original argument that his BABIP made him lucky.

 

Also, a 30 point difference in wOBA is huge. The way I took the article was that a .353 wOBA would have "still been good," which it would have, just not nearly AS good, and well within shouting distance of mediocre when you factor in standard regression, especially when you consider how drastically different his season was than his career.

 

 

How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more.

I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects.

This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers.

 

He may have improved his physical conditioning, but his plate discipline absolutely did NOT get better, which is among the most significant indicators that his perfromance may not have been sustainable.

This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him.

In my never ending quest to figure out how Avi became what we saw last year. I am more convinced than ever it was because of the better conditioning and weight loss. . I truly believe if we see a bulked up Avi again we will see the old Avi. If he continues to dedicate himself by staying a well conditioned athlete we will see more of the new Avi.

 

I was looking at the ESPN hot zone on Avi to see what his hot zones were last year in comparison to previous years and the one thing that jumped out was how much better he hit within the strike zone especially high in the strike zone . I think when he was heavier he was too upper body heavy and his swing was less fluid because of the mass. Now it is much looser, more fluid and quicker in the zone.

 

The hot zone divides the strike zone into 9 sections and in 2017 there was only 1 of those 9 sections that Avi didn't hit well. In the 3 previous year there were always 4 of the 9 zones where Avi did poorly.

 

Also because of the better conditioning he was faster and became a better fielder. SO for those of you looking for a hint on how he will fare next year (if not traded) keep an eye on his weight.

 

If he ever starts learning the strike zone better and taking more walks the new Avi could be even better. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/.../avisail-garcia

He may have improved his physical conditioning, but his plate discipline absolutely did NOT get better, which is among the most significant indicators that his perfromance may not have been sustainable.

 

His second half walk rate tends to disagree with you.

His second half walk rate tends to disagree with you.

 

His second half walk rate of about 8% skyrocketed his season rate all the way to 5.9% which is about two points BELOW his career average. So no, that did not improve.

 

Also, his 41% O-swing, the 9th worst in all of baseball, agrees strongly, and was measured over the entire season. It's also within 0.4% of his career number.

You can't use the xwOBA to prove a point and then discredit it in the next breath. If you want to use his actual wOBA, then you're back into the original argument that his BABIP made him lucky.

 

Also, a 30 point difference in wOBA is huge. The way I took the article was that a .353 wOBA would have "still been good," which it would have, just not nearly AS good, and well within shouting distance of mediocre when you factor in standard regression, especially when you consider how drastically different his season was than his career.

I know I am at a disadvantage when using modern stats with you because you seem to have a grasp on them whereas I don't. But the writer of the article (pnoles the Sox math champ) seems to disagree with you using the same stats which he seems to understand so I really don't know what else to say to you. You think the .32 difference between the xwOBA and the w OBA is huge and indicates a larger am,ount of luck when he doesn't think it plays a huge roll when determining the luck factor.

 

But I will keep trying ,here is one you may not have seen with another writer looking at modern stats and thinking Avi might just be pretty good. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/9/12...-good-white-sox

I know I am at a disadvantage when using modern stats with you because you seem to have a grasp on them whereas I don't. But the writer of the article (pnoles the Sox math champ) seems to disagree with you using the same stats which he seems to understand so I really don't know what else to say to you. You think the .32 difference between the xwOBA and the w OBA is huge and indicates a larger am,ount of luck when he doesn't think it plays a huge roll when determining the luck factor.

 

But I will keep trying ,here is one you may not have seen with another writer looking at modern stats and thinking Avi might just be pretty good. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/9/12...-good-white-sox

 

I'm not refuting anything pnoles said, I just think there's a factor he missed. The gist of his article (as it seems to me) is that yes, Avi had BABIP luck, but that if you use a stat that is designed to strip out luck and tell you what a guy "should have" hit, he still would have had a much and improved and indeed solid season.

 

However, if we're forecasting Avi's performance, we need to factor performance regression as well. He just had a season that was like 800% better than any season he's ever had. His 2017 fWAR is literally HIGHER THAN his career fWAR. Think about that. When you forecast, you essentially regress the most recent performance against past performances, weighting the most recent performance higher. So if he "should have" had a .353 wOBA, and his wOBA’s over the past two full seasons were .302 and .295, you’d expect him to be closer to the average of those going forward. Even weighting the most recent total more heavily, you’re looking at something between .330 - .340, which is roughly league average for a RF. Since Avi’s defense is certainly below average (even if you think it’s improved from the disaster it used to be), you’re talking about a likely below average RF overall, with the upside of being average to slightly above.

 

If that means he’s a 2 fWAR player for a couple years, that’s still a fantastic outcome for him considering how abysmally bad his first four seasons were. But, we’re talking about whether we should keep him/extend him at a time where his value isn’t maximized because we’re in a rebuild, and I’d argue that extending a likely league average player after his best season (when his price is highest) is NOT something we want to do at this stage.

 

In summary, my point is this: even if you grant Avi significant sustainable improvement, the numbers show that he is much more likely an average player than a star going forward. It’s certainly possible he can get even better, but it’s highly unlikely, so keeping him only becomes a good gamble if the trade offers are garbage. If we have an opportunity to get multiple decent prospects (not necessarily great ones), we should take it, because the more long-term depth and talent we put into this system, the better our chances to win in the next window.

Edited December 5, 20178 yr by Eminor3rd

Avi seems to me to be a guy who will really slow up running as he approaches 30. It seems it happens to the bigger guys who can run a bit earlier.

 

 

But trading either guy all depends on the return. If other teams aren't going to pay for last year's production, there is no need to give them away, and Hahn won't.

Avi seems to me to be a guy who will really slow up running as he approaches 30. It seems it happens to the bigger guys who can run a bit earlier.

 

 

But trading either guy all depends on the return. If other teams aren't going to pay for last year's production, there is no need to give them away, and Hahn won't.

 

If Avi had put up back to back similar seasons to 2017 then his trade value would be through the roof right now, but I still think we can find a team willing to take a two year chance that he keeps it up. We have some players who can fill in the outfield until Jimenez is ready.

In summary, my point is this: even if you grant Avi significant sustainable improvement, the numbers show that he is much more likely an average player than a star going forward. It’s certainly possible he can get even better, but it’s highly unlikely, so keeping him only becomes a good gamble if the trade offers are garbage. If we have an opportunity to get multiple decent prospects (not necessarily great ones), we should take it, because the more long-term depth and talent we put into this system, the better our chances to win in the next window.

 

A guy who is 26 and hit .330 in 2017 will be an average player next season ? Avi is not going to regress to his former weight and poor physical conditioning. Unless he is foolish he will stay in great shape because he will be playing for the big Contract, knowing that could be enormous if he strings together a couple of good seasons.

I don't want to discuss advanced stats. I watch most Sox games and have seen hundreds of his at-bats over the last few years.

 

I recall that there were a few posters who thought Schwarber would put up better numbers in 2017 than Avi would...and no talk of regression about Schwarber - a tank in the outfield and a guy that struggled to hit over .200 most of the year.

 

A .330 BA from a 26 year old player who keeps himself in great shape and is not a problem in the clubhouse? That's golden.

No team is going to get him without including at least one elite young player or prospect.

 

 

 

In my never ending quest to figure out how Avi became what we saw last year. I am more convinced than ever it was because of the better conditioning and weight loss. . I truly believe if we see a bulked up Avi again we will see the old Avi. If he continues to dedicate himself by staying a well conditioned athlete we will see more of the new Avi.

 

I was looking at the ESPN hot zone on Avi to see what his hot zones were last year in comparison to previous years and the one thing that jumped out was how much better he hit within the strike zone especially high in the strike zone . I think when he was heavier he was too upper body heavy and his swing was less fluid because of the mass. Now it is much looser, more fluid and quicker in the zone.

 

The hot zone divides the strike zone into 9 sections and in 2017 there was only 1 of those 9 sections that Avi didn't hit well. In the 3 previous year there were always 4 of the 9 zones where Avi did poorly.

 

Also because of the better conditioning he was faster and became a better fielder. SO for those of you looking for a hint on how he will fare next year (if not traded) keep an eye on his weight.

 

If he ever starts learning the strike zone better and taking more walks the new Avi could be even better. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/.../avisail-garcia

 

Interesting stuff here. Don't forget that first glimpse we had of him in the days following his arrival (from the Peavy trade). He REALLY looked promising and had us all looking forward to his time here. He hit .304 over a 42 game sample after hitting .319 and .283 in his first 2 partial years in Detroit. Then he started off the following year decent and had 4 hits and 2 HR's the day before his injury. He was a different player after that injury. I think with it being a leg injury, he probably put on the extra weight from not being able to do normal cardio and maybe even faced a little muscle atrophy--which takes a while to build back up. Over that time and the games in his return, he became heavy and slow. Over the next couple years, his strength was built back up in his injured leg, the weight came back off and all of a sudden he starts hitting again at the .283-.319 level--then...enter the confidence factor that took him all the way to .330.

 

SO...we're all surprised because we came to know Avi's "norm" to be what he demonstrated in the majority of the time we saw him here--the 2 heavy/slow years following a major leg injury. The .330 surprised us because it was SO different than the majority of his time here...however, it's not THAT much of a shock when you factor in that he had shown the high average skill set other healthy times in his career.

 

I think you're on to something with the conditioning being the key for him. But we can maybe also use that as a small indicator of future performance--Assuming he stays in shape and is not injured--it may not be a surprise to see him repeat the success he had last year. Maybe not .330 because that's tough for anyone to repeat. But who's to say a .290+ year would disappoint? Now it's the power numbers that have not shown up the way we all had hoped. .290 plays in a lot of places, but there's absolutely room for improvement in the run production area--especially after playing in our stadium...but the higher average could be a normal occurrence that we just never knew about.

Interesting stuff here. Don't forget that first glimpse we had of him in the days following his arrival (from the Peavy trade). He REALLY looked promising and had us all looking forward to his time here. He hit .304 over a 42 game sample after hitting .319 and .283 in his first 2 partial years in Detroit. Then he started off the following year decent and had 4 hits and 2 HR's the day before his injury. He was a different player after that injury. I think with it being a leg injury, he probably put on the extra weight from not being able to do normal cardio and maybe even faced a little muscle atrophy--which takes a while to build back up. Over that time and the games in his return, he became heavy and slow. Over the next couple years, his strength was built back up in his injured leg, the weight came back off and all of a sudden he starts hitting again at the .283-.319 level--then...enter the confidence factor that took him all the way to .330.

 

SO...we're all surprised because we came to know Avi's "norm" to be what he demonstrated in the majority of the time we saw him here--the 2 heavy/slow years following a major leg injury. The .330 surprised us because it was SO different than the majority of his time here...however, it's not THAT much of a shock when you factor in that he had shown the high average skill set other healthy times in his career.

 

I think you're on to something with the conditioning being the key for him. But we can maybe also use that as a small indicator of future performance--Assuming he stays in shape and is not injured--it may not be a surprise to see him repeat the success he had last year. Maybe not .330 because that's tough for anyone to repeat. But who's to say a .290+ year would disappoint? Now it's the power numbers that have not shown up the way we all had hoped. .290 plays in a lot of places, but there's absolutely room for improvement in the run production area--especially after playing in our stadium...but the higher average could be a normal occurrence that we just never knew about.

 

People forget that he had a hand injury in early July that caused him to not hit a HR for a month and a half. Replace that with what was otherwise normal production for the year for him (4-5 HRs per month) and he's a 25 HR guy last year as well.

A guy who is 26 and hit .330 in 2017 will be an average player next season ? Avi is not going to regress to his former weight and poor physical conditioning.

 

You're welcome to disagree, man, but there are two or three pages with reams of researched reasons supporting the opposite side of the argument, and you're just popping in essentially saying "nuh-uh" without any evidence to support it. It's hard to take your stance seriously if you don't make a case. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you gotta defend it.

 

I don't want to discuss advanced stats. I watch most Sox games and have seen hundreds of his at-bats over the last few years.

 

Me too.

You're welcome to disagree, man, but there are two or three pages with reams of researched reasons supporting the opposite side of the argument, and you're just popping in essentially saying "nuh-uh" without any evidence to support it. It's hard to take your stance seriously if you don't make a case. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you gotta defend it.

 

 

 

Me too.

 

The current free agent class for outfielders is not great with JD Martinez, Cain, Bruce and Gomez the top available guys. Garcia could be an attractive trade target under control for two more seasons?

There will be regression. it's a matter of how much regression we have been debating.

Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression."

There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own.

Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression."

There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own.

Regression with Garcia is expected because up until last season he did not perform nearly that well nor consistently. I wouldn't expect a big regression because I do think he's figured some things out and was in better shape. He could, however, surprise us all and have another great year building off last year's success.

Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression."

There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own.

 

That's EXACTLY the point. It's not just Avi, and that's why we're bringing it up. It's an extremely well-researched pattern of results over decades. The point isn't to pick on guys, it's to temper our expectations and give us a realistic outlook when evaluating how our front office decides to treat its assets.

Edited December 6, 20178 yr by Eminor3rd

The current free agent class for outfielders is not great with JD Martinez, Cain, Bruce and Gomez the top available guys. Garcia could be an attractive trade target under control for two more seasons?

 

I think he certainly could, and I have no doubt Hahn is trying to find out what the appetite is. You could argue that Garcia is the most attractive option after the first two of those sign. It just comes down to how many buyers remain at that point.

If he ever starts learning the strike zone better and taking more walks the new Avi could be even better. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/.../avisail-garcia

 

I think this is absolutely his Achilles' Heel and has been from day one. If he could fix his plate discipline, I'd jump onboard really fast.

I think he certainly could, and I have no doubt Hahn is trying to find out what the appetite is. You could argue that Garcia is the most attractive option after the first two of those sign. It just comes down to how many buyers remain at that point.

 

And despite Cain being an obviously better player, he fits a much different niche than Avisail, so really, I don't think his market will have too much of an effect on Garcia.

That's EXACTLY the point. It's not just Avi, and that's why we're bringing it up. It's an extremely well-researched pattern of results over decades. The point isn't to pick on guys, it's to temper our expectations and give us a realistic outlook wehn evaluating how our front office decides to treat it's assets.

 

Like everyone else, I'm just not sure. And I'm mostly not sure if the research and his numbers tell us as much of the true story as the logic behind them does. He had 2 off-years stemming from a major knee injury and the subsequent conditioning effects of...having a major knee injury. The "healthy numbers" have been there and been pretty consistent. Like Dam8610 pointed out earlier if you plug his missed month and a half numbers into his stat line from last hear you'd have a 25 HR player. Now would the average still be .330 with a month and a half of AB's factored in? Maybe, maybe not. But plugging in another 45 days of stats, an OF with a line of .315-.330/90/25/100?? would be in pretty elite company with other MLB OF's.

 

To see all things past/recent past lead to producing a line like this is encouraging since all the scouting that went into acquiring him pointed to this type of potential. He might have been this player all along underneath the injury/long rehab process. We certainly thought he was when we traded for him. Why on EARTH would we have resigned him after the absolute disaster the previous 2 seasons!?!? There's something more behind the numbers to Avi Garcia that we might not realize.

Edited December 5, 20178 yr by FT35

Even the most careful analysis of advanced stats that support a regression theory cannot take into account the human element which can involve many factors ...attitude, injuries, conditioning and training, motivation, among others. In addition there are some players that seem to just figure things out at some point in their career. Some of those factors have been discussed, particularly with Avi's weight, conditioning, foot speed, and quickness. This guy was hauling to first base on ground balls last season and got to a lot of balls down the line and in the gap. I am excited to see him in RF with Eloy in LF. That could be two nice hitters in the corners for us over the next few years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like everyone else, I'm just not sure. And I'm mostly not sure if the research and his numbers tell us as much of the true story as the logic behind them does. He had 2 off-years stemming from a major knee injury and the subsequent conditioning effects of...having a major knee injury. The "healthy numbers" have been there and been pretty consistent. Like Dam8610 pointed out earlier if you plug his missed month and a half numbers into his stat line from last hear you'd have a 25 HR player. Now would the average still be .330 with a month and a half of AB's factored in? Maybe, maybe not. But plugging in another 45 days of stats, an OF with a line of .315-.330/90/25/100?? would be in pretty elite company with other MLB OF's.

 

To see all things past/recent past lead to producing a line like this is encouraging since all the scouting that went into acquiring him pointed to this type of potential. He might have been this player all along underneath the injury/long rehab process. We certainly thought he was when we traded for him. Why on EARTH would we have resigned him after the absolute disaster the previous 2 seasons!?!? There's something more behind the numbers to Avi Garcia that we might not realize.

Probably because they couldn't trade him.