Why does Stone always say that humidity is good hitting weather. I don't think Tom Skilling would say that. 

End of the inning mercifully 

At least now he's getting pounded while throwing with velocity.

As for whether he's tipping his pitches, he definitely tips the curveball because the release point is in a different spot. It's pretty clear from Statcast that it's 4-8" higher at release than the rest of his pitches.

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

You've even said it before, his fastball is just meat due to lack of spin rate.  Good hitters will feast on it when it's over the plate. It was less obvious earlier in the year because he was so wild.

Yeah, he's got the same problem as Lopez. I'm going to look up his spin rate on his fastball just like I did with Lopez. 

Also, on the Cincinnati broadcast they showed a brief interview with Don Cooper pregame. Coop said that Giolito has been "mentally tied up in knots" since they acquired him and it's something they're still working through. Also said they've been trying to ramp up his velocity lately.

Just now, Jake said:

At least now he's getting pounded while throwing with velocity.

As for whether he's tipping his pitches, he definitely tips the curveball because the release point is in a different spot. It's pretty clear from Statcast that it's 4-8" higher at release than the rest of his pitches.

He really needs to focus more on the slider. His only pitch with positive value this year. His fastball pitch value is scary bad.

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, he's got the same problem as Lopez. I'm going to look up his spin rate on his fastball just like I did with Lopez. 

Lopez’s fastball >>>>>>>> Giolito’s

Giolito FB spin rate: 2073 RPM

MLB AVG spin rate: 2263 RPM. 

Again, that difference will make 95-96 look like 90-91, and 97-98 look like 93ish. 

3 minutes ago, Jake said:

Also, on the Cincinnati broadcast they showed a brief interview with Don Cooper pregame. Coop said that Giolito has been "mentally tied up in knots" since they acquired him and it's something they're still working through. Also said they've been trying to ramp up his velocity lately.

The increase in velocity is a huge development.  It gives me the tiniest bit of hope that Lucas can actually work through this shit.

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Giolito FB spin rate: 2073 RPM

MLB AVG spin rate: 2263 RPM. 

Again, that difference will make 95-96 look like 90-91, and 97-98 look like 93ish. 

Spin rate was main reason Nats gave up on him 

NL Central 35-13 vs Sox, Royals, Twins, Tigers

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lopez’s fastball >>>>>>>> Giolito’s

Velocity wise, sure. Lopez gets destroyed on his fastball just like Gio does when he gets hit around. The spin rate difference between the two is marginal. When Lopez sits 93-95 for an inning or two he gets killed just as badly as Giolito does.  

Edited July 3, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

He really needs to focus more on the slider. His only pitch with positive value this year. His fastball pitch value is scary bad.

He was also throwing 90 to 92 MPH until a few starts ago.  No doubt his breaking stuff is key to his success, but sitting closer to 95 MPH with the fastball will most definitely help.

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Spin rate was main reason Nats gave up on him 

You could say the same about Lopez. 

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Velocity wise, sure. Lopez gets destroyed on his fastball just like Gio does when he gets hit around. The spin rate difference between the two is marginal. When Lopez loses his velo for an inning or two he gets killed just as badly as Giolito does.  

Lopez has positive pitch value on his fastball. It's his changeup that's bad.  Giolito might have least effective fastball in baseball based off what I'm seeing on fangraphs.

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

You could say the same about Lopez. 

No he was available due to starting/reliever concerns

Just now, fathom said:

Lopez has positive pitch value on his fastball. It's his changeup that's bad.  Giolito might have least effective fastball in baseball based off what I'm seeing on fangraphs.

I'm sure he does. If you could isolate starts when hes down in the low-mid 90s Lopez usually doesn't get out of the 3rd. Go look at the gamethreads. Lopez has to stay in 96+ range otherwise he's not an MLB pitcher either. 

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

No he was available due to starting/reliever concerns

Spin rate:

Giolito: 2073

Lopez: 2092

MLB AVG: 2263

They both have a problem. I don't know if it is something that is even solvable.

Edited July 3, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Velocity wise, sure. Lopez gets destroyed on his fastball just like Gio does when he gets hit around. The spin rate difference between the two is marginal. When Lopez sits 93-95 for an inning or two he gets killed just as badly as Giolito does.  

What was Lopez’s spin rate on his fastball last year out of curiosity?  I have never seen any commentary of him having a straight fastball like Giolito and earlier this year his fastball was amongst the highest rated in baseball.  I think you are overreacting to a sample size bias.

I would wager that it was much more about a mixture of on-field results in MLB, velocity drop, and Giolito's mental state that made Washington unsure about him. I suspect MLB teams have much more uncertainty over the practical meaning of spin rate than what is being expressed here.

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

What was Lopez’s spin rate on his fastball last year out of curiosity?  I have never seen any commentary of him having a straight fastball like Giolito and earlier this year his fastball was amongst the highest rated in baseball.  I think you are overreacting to a sample size bias.

Yeah never heard concerns on Lopez and spin rate. There were numerous articles when Eaton trade happened that Giolito might be a bust due to fastball spin rate issues

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What was Lopez’s spin rate on his fastball last year out of curiosity?  I have never seen any commentary of him having a straight fastball like Giolito and earlier this year his fastball was amongst the highest rated in baseball.  I think you are overreacting to a sample size bias.

 

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Spin rate:

Giolito: 2073

Lopez: 2092

MLB AVG: 2263

They both have a problem. I don't know if it is something that is even solvable.

Here you go. His spin rate is marginally better than Giolito. This is over the entirety of 2018.

Edited July 3, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

Just now, Jake said:

I would wager that it was much more about a mixture of on-field results in MLB, velocity drop, and Giolito's mental state that made Washington unsure about him. I suspect MLB teams have much more uncertainty over the practical meaning of spin rate than what is being expressed here.

Might have been Jeff Sullivan but within 24 hours of the deal, Bernstein had someone on the radio talking about how bad his fastball spin rate was.  

19 minutes ago, fathom said:

You've even said it before, his fastball is just meat due to lack of spin rate. 

Yet he also said Dane Dunning is garbage.. 

I'm just glad the kid is hitting 95-96 again. Gives me hope he can harness the other pitches (the curve especially) and possibly go even higher. 

Edited July 3, 20187 yr by SoxAce

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

No he was available due to starting/reliever concerns

Yup.