Not unlike my prediction at the start, historically bad to start, but improvement in 2nd half. I figured that improvement would coincide with Rodon's health, and graduations of players like Kopech. For a team in the toilet, the last 6 weeks COULD be exciting to watch. 

Edited August 20, 20187 yr by kwolf68

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

With the pitchers, it has to do with team control. Anderson can stay at SS until a better option is found, be it Madrigal or a free agent. I've been one of the biggest Giolito defenders here, because the Nationals messed him up and he was always a project, otherwise he wouldn't have been available. 

Rodon is controlled 3 more years. Like I said, you either trade him for a haul within the next couple years or he's a TOR starter on the next playoff team. He's every bit as important as Giolito and Lopez. Not sure why you are so down on TA. He's already a solid starting SS at age 25 at an incredibly affordable price for another 6 years after this season. Why the big rush to move him into a utility role?

1 minute ago, kwolf68 said:

Not unlike my prediction at the start, historically bad to start, but improvement in 2nd half. I figured that improvement would coincide with Rodon's health, and graduations of players like Kopech. For a team in the toilet, the last 6 weeks COULD be exciting to watch. 

They were fun to watch at the end of last year too, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.

 

Of course, I was duped by their August/September of 2017. Giolito looked decent, Moncada was really good in September, and we were winning. I didn't think we'd make the playoffs this year (though I thought there was an outside shot with a healthy Rodon, Kopech in May, Eloy in June, Hamilton/relievers promoted, etc) but I also thought we'd be a lot closer to the 75 or so win mark by the end of the year than whatever we're on pace for. 

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Rodon is controlled 3 more years. Like I said, you either trade him for a haul within the next couple years or he's a TOR starter on the next playoff team. He's every bit as important as Giolito and Lopez. Not sure why you are so down on TA. He's already a solid starting SS at age 25 at an incredibly affordable price for another 6 years after this season. Why the big rush to move him into a utility role?

At the very worst, Anderson is either an average or slightly above average starting shortstop, a good bench player, or a trade asset due to his team-friendly contract. He is in no way a burden to our plans. Perhaps he's the Starlin Castro of our rebuild, where he's a fine player but ends up getting traded due to us finding a better shortstop somehow 

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Rodon is controlled 3 more years. Like I said, you either trade him for a haul within the next couple years or he's a TOR starter on the next playoff team. He's every bit as important as Giolito and Lopez. Not sure why you are so down on TA. He's already a solid starting SS at age 25 at an incredibly affordable price for another 6 years after this season. Why the big rush to move him into a utility role? 

Anderson makes way too many outs. Ramirez was barely passable with a .310 OBP, and Anderson's is hovering around .285. If he's hitting .250 with a.285 OBP, he's not good enough for me. 

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

At the very worst, Anderson is either an average or slightly above average starting shortstop, a good bench player, or a trade asset due to his team-friendly contract. He is in no way a burden to our plans. Perhaps he's the Starlin Castro of our rebuild, where he's a fine player but ends up getting traded due to us finding a better shortstop somehow 

Absolutely. Also worth noting he's been a better shortstop this year than the one starting for the north side team (the guy once ranked as a top 3 prospect in all of baseball).

The Good:

• Abreu: 9.1% BB rate, 20.3% K rate, .302 ISO, .315 BABIP, .974 OPS, 161 wRC+
• Rodon: 6 GS, 44.2 IP, 7.25 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 0.20 HR/9, 1.41 ERA, 2.98 FIP
• Narvaez: 16.5% BB rate, 15.2% K rate, .246 ISO, .327 BABIP, .984 OPS, 170 wRC+

The Bad:

• Giolito: 6 GS, 34.2 IP, 8.83 K/9, 3.89 BB/9, 10.4 HR/9, 4.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP
• Moncada: 16.4% BB rate, 35.7% K rate, .148 ISO, .258 BABIP, .631 OPS, 78 wRC+
• Anderson: 1.6% BB rate, 22.2% K rate, .171 ISO, .290 BABIP, .669 OPS, 74 wRC+

The Ugly:

• Lopez: 7 GS, 38.0 IP, 6.63 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 2.84 HR/9, 7.34 ERA, 7.06 FIP
• Avi: 6.6% BB rate, 29.2% K rate, .177 ISO, .177 BABIP, .570 OPS, 52 wRC+

My lord Avi is like Mr. BABIP. At it goes, he goes.

Edited August 20, 20187 yr by Greg Hibbard

Tim Anderson this year has improved in every way from last year (except BABIP). Higher walk %, lower K %, higher ISO, higher wOBA. If his BABIP was inline with his career average of .331 he'd be (bare minimum of just adding the BABIP difference) around .282/.328/.451/.779.

Yeah he could be making consistently shitty contact and swinging at terrible pitches and that's why his BABIP is down but if Anderson ends up around these numbers in his prime I'm perfectly happy. That's probably a 3+ WAR shortstop every year with his overall skillset.

As someone who’s wants the highest possible pick...

6 minutes ago, almagest said:

Tim Anderson this year has improved in every way from last year (except BABIP). Higher walk %, lower K %, higher ISO, higher wOBA. If his BABIP was inline with his career average of .331 he'd be (bare minimum of just adding the BABIP difference) around .282/.328/.451/.779.

Yeah he could be making consistently shitty contact and swinging at terrible pitches and that's why his BABIP is down but if Anderson ends up around these numbers in his prime I'm perfectly happy. That's probably a 3+ WAR shortstop every year with his overall skillset.

I'm not a huge fan of the way you used "Career BABIP" there as though it's a number that is well enough constrained to be useful. When he was a rookie he put up .375, last year was .328, this year so far is .294. It's over 1000 PAs so there's some value in it, but just leveling across those 3 years and saying "he'll be the average of them" seems like it's going to be missing part of the story.

That said, everything else you said is a positive sign, and it's not like we're going to replace him next year...so I'll get to "We still need to see improvement from him next year."

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm not a huge fan of the way you used "Career BABIP" there as though it's a number that is well enough constrained to be useful. When he was a rookie he put up .375, last year was .328, this year so far is .294. It's over 1000 PAs so there's some value in it, but just leveling across those 3 years and saying "he'll be the average of them" seems like it's going to be missing part of the story.

That said, everything else you said is a positive sign, and it's not like we're going to replace him next year...so I'll get to "We still need to see improvement from him next year."

Sure, that's fine. I was assuming 1500 PAs was enough to take an average and that there wasn't a good reason for his lower BABIP this year beyond luck. I think the improvements in just about every other area warrant optimism with Tim entering his prime seasons.

12 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

6 of his last 9 starts are quality starts. That’s not bad. Each of those times he’s given the team a chance to win and that’s all you really want out of a guy projected to be at the back end of the rotation moving forward.

7 of 10 for Gio. ? Carry this momentum into next season and he’d be a solid back of the rotation starter. Then, suddenly, the rotation looks pretty darn respectable assuming Kopech lives up to his billing. First look at Big Mike tomorrow, can’t wait! 

About to improve to 18-17 (.514 winning percentage). That’s in stark contrast to the 30-61 start (.330). Pretty clear this team is heading in the right direction and the worst of the rebuild is behind us. Rodon and TA continue to perform and adding Big Mike to the mix further solidifies the starting rotation. Depending on what happens this offseason, this team could surprise a few people next year. Maybe not quite playoff ready but 80+ wins seems well within reach, especially in this division.

Edited August 22, 20187 yr by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

20-18

Oh yea and Gio was great again. 8 Of last 11 are quality starts. That’s a third of a season worth of starts. This rotation is really starting to come together. A terrific development heading into the offseason.

Edited August 26, 20187 yr by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

On 8/20/2018 at 8:55 AM, Dick Allen said:

I will give you guys credit trying to spin something positive out of a guy who leads the league in runs given up, walks and HBP.

So showing improvement for increasing K and decreasing walks over a season means nothing? Each of those categories you cited has drastically decreased as the season has progressed. So a guy who has started on 36 games in his career can't show improvement as he progresses? 

On 8/20/2018 at 1:26 PM, Jack Parkman said:

With the pitchers, it has to do with team control. Anderson can stay at SS until a better option is found, be it Madrigal or a free agent. I've been one of the biggest Giolito defenders here, because the Nationals messed him up and he was always a project, otherwise he wouldn't have been available for Adam Eaton. He's shown a lot of improvement this season, let's see if it sticks or not over the offseason. Lopez I'm on the fence on, whether he's a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen swingman. I don't think his stuff will play in the bullpen because he doesn't have a consistent second pitch. 

The place for pitchers without a consistent second pitch is the bullpen when he won't face a hitter more than once.

21-18 ?

Big test for the kids this week against the class of the AL East. I’d be happy with 3 wins.

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

21-18 ?

Big test for the kids this week against the class of the AL East. I’d be happy with 3 wins.

 I edited the topic title ?

Edited August 26, 20187 yr by Greg Hibbard

11 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

 I edited the topic title ?

Perfect ? 

 

This week, regardless of the record, I feel will either be very fun or very not fun. Recent play would suggest the former...but ya know...Yanks and Red Sox. 

I for one want to see Palka go deep at least twice the next few days with that short porch in NY.

22-18...jump on the bandwagon before it’s full!

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