August 6, 20196 yr 17 hours ago, The Sir said: I really don’t get the appeal of batting Robert leadoff. Sure, he’s fast, but he’s also powerful. What’s more beneficial? A) Him leading off, stealing bags to get into scoring position, so that he can score on a single by our guys who should be hitting homeruns anyway, and at the same time hitting a crap ton of homeruns himself but often with few if any runners on base... or B) Him hitting third or fourth, constantly clobbering two or three run bombs because he’s hitting behind our OBP kings, and then, when he does merely single, he can steal and be in scoring position for our relatively weaker lower of the order hitters who are more likely to hit singles? B makes so much more sense to me. To the extent that I will furiously protest A, and you guys know how annoying that can be. Actually in scenario B, if he singles, he'd be followed by our 4, 5, 6, and 7 guys. I'd hope these guys aren't weak singles hitters. I think we need to bat Madrigal either 1st or 9th, preferably first. Batting him 9th sounds bad, but having a great hitter with no power at 9th gives you a legit chance to score in any inning. If our 7th and 8th guys get on, we wouldn't have to worry about the back breaking DP in front of our lead off hitter. We will be strong 2-6 so no room for him there if he's not leading off.
August 6, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, mqr said: Robert isn't going to have to hit behind a pitcher I think you mean he won't have to hit behind our DH position for this season.
August 6, 20196 yr 54 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: Yeah mutual option, I thought he was a FA. That means nothing. He'll test out free agency now that he won't have a draft pick attached to him this year. He can do better than the option of 1 year/$16mill.
August 6, 20196 yr If we can't trade for a controllable LH RF, I've warmed to the idea of giving Alex Gordon a 1 year deal. He should be relatively cheap, knows the central really well (obviously), and at least plays really good D. Not a long term commitment and gives the OF prospects another year to see if someone emerges (still hopeful on Micker). I've made it no secret that I think the Sox should trade for a controllable LH RF, but obviously a little easier said that done. I wouldn't hate Gordon as a fallback option. Offseason: Sign Gerrit Cole - 6 years, $200M Sign Grandal - 3 years, $56M Sign Alex Wood - 1 year, $10M Sign Alex Gordon - 1 year, $8M Sign Jose Abreu - 1 year, $10M Line-up by mid-May: Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Eloy LF/RF, Grandal C/1B/DH, Abreu DH/1B, Alex Gordon RF/LF, Anderson SS, McCann / Collins C/DH/1B, Madrigal 2B BN: Leury, Goins, Collins/McCann Rotation: Cole, Giolito, Cease, Wood, Lopez (Kopech joins shortly thereafter; Rodon waiting in wings to save Kopech/Cease innings in July on) Pen could use some work. Could convince me to use the money I gave to Wood on some relievers and just let Kopech go from the start. Payroll would be in the $125-$130M range for 2020. Alot to add, but its not like the Sox haven't operated in that realm in the past. Edited August 6, 20196 yr by ChiSox59
August 6, 20196 yr 13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: If we can't trade for a controllable LH RF, I've warmed to the idea of giving Alex Gordon a 1 year deal. He should be relatively cheap, knows the central really well (obviously), and at least plays really good D. Not a long term commitment and gives the OF prospects another year to see if someone emerges (still hopeful on Micker). I've made it no secret that I think the Sox should trade for a controllable LH RF, but obviously a little easier said that done. I wouldn't hate Gordon as a fallback option. Offseason: Sign Gerrit Cole - 6 years, $200M Sign Grandal - 3 years, $56M Sign Alex Wood - 1 year, $10M Sign Alex Gordon - 1 year, $8M Sign Jose Abreu - 1 year, $10M Line-up by mid-May: Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Eloy LF/RF, Grandal C/1B/DH, Abreu DH/1B, Alex Gordon RF/LF, Anderson SS, McCann / Collins C/DH/1B, Madrigal 2B BN: Leury, Goins, Collins/McCann Rotation: Cole, Giolito, Cease, Wood, Lopez (Kopech joins shortly thereafter; Rodon waiting in wings to save Kopech/Cease innings in July on) Pen could use some work. Could convince me to use the money I gave to Wood on some relievers and just let Kopech go from the start. Payroll would be in the $125-$130M range for 2020. Alot to add, but its not like the Sox haven't operated in that realm in the past. Their payroll is 90 million this year while not competing. If we aren't sitting at 150 at least next year we have a problem.
August 7, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said: Their payroll is 90 million this year while not competing. If we aren't sitting at 150 at least next year we have a problem. Just trying to be realistic for those that think $120M is a pipe dream. I don’t think “we have a problem” if it doesn’t get up to $150Mish, but frankly its what should be done. IMO, $120M+ should be a definite.
August 7, 20196 yr 120 million would put us at the 20th ranked payroll in Baseball with 2019's numbers. Only 7 million more than what Detroit is playing with right now.
August 7, 20196 yr 6 hours ago, fathom said: I hope we can do much better than that at DH Than a veteran if Collins or Sheets aren’t the answer?
August 7, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said: Yeah mutual option, I thought he was a FA. A mutual option is basically the same as being a free agent.
August 7, 20196 yr 20 hours ago, Joshua Strong said: You bat Robert first because he’s the best hitter on the team* and you bat your best hitter first because you’re guaranteeing that he gets the most plate appearances over the course of a game but a 162 game season. *****I know his numbers are insane and other worldly but it’s the numbers that we have.***** Boston, big on analytics, used this theory last year w Mookie Betts. But the numbers did find one flaw in it. If you put your best hitter in the leadoff spot and he is also a HR hitter, you lose some RBI opportunities. Last year Betts hit 32 HR but 12 were hit leading off w no one on base. So this year they dropped him to 2nd but both he and Benintendi struggled so Betts is now back to 1st. This year, 19 HR but 7 leading off. So if you put your best OBP player leading off and your best hitter 2nd, you probably maximize plate appearances and RBI opportunities.
August 7, 20196 yr Fuck it. Play Collins at 1B and sign Edwin to DH. Totally forgot he has an option that won't get picked up for next year.
August 7, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, fathom said: In my ideal lineup, Anderson is 8th and Madrigal is 9th If Anderson is your worst hitter sure. That seems like a tallish ask though.
August 7, 20196 yr Author Back to lineup optimization. Here are some good articles to read... https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2015/4/20/8452647/the-new-2-hitter-mlb https://community.fangraphs.com/where-to-bat-your-best-hitter-a-computational-analysis-part-1/ https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38931/banjo-hitter-reimagining-2-hitter/ https://dodgers.mlblogs.com/the-evolution-of-the-2-hitter-d51c770f12d9 https://www.billjamesonline.com/stats100/ https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2017/3/31/16040426/2017-mlb-preview-leadoff-hitter-revolution-george-springer-kyle-schwarber-2e49f6ff7c58
August 7, 20196 yr Author Who ever is the best run producer should bat fourth because over the course of a 162 game season, on average the cleanup hitter gets the most plate appearances with someone in scoring position.
August 7, 20196 yr 8 hours ago, Joshua Strong said: Who ever is the best run producer should bat fourth because over the course of a 162 game season, on average the cleanup hitter gets the most plate appearances with someone in scoring position. But you also said your best hitter should bat 1st to maximize plate appearances. Your best hitter may also be your best run producer. I still think your top OBP guy leads of or 2nd and then best run producer is 3rd or 4th. If 3 or 4 you do need a good bat behind him so he does not get pitched around too much.
August 7, 20196 yr Sign Cole, sign Grandal, sign Kole (Calhoun) if his option is declined, sign Edwin (option will definitely be declined), sign Betances and 2 other relievers. Lineup mid-April (assuming they keep 13 pitchers and not an extra bench player with the expanded rosters): 1. Robert CF 2. Anderson SS 3. Moncada 3B 4. Encarnacion DH/1B 5. Jimenez LF 6. Calhoun RF 7. Grandal C/1B/DH 8. Collins 1B/DH/C 9. Madrigal 2B Bench: McCann C Goins IF Engel OF or some other cheap signing Garcia IF/OF Sidenote: anyone else miss the days when bullpens only had like 6 guys and AL benches had 5 players? Kinda miss the late game strategy of pinch-hitting for certain guys in certain spots and more pinch running. Edited August 7, 20196 yr by soxfan2014
August 7, 20196 yr Author 2 hours ago, SCCWS said: But you also said your best hitter should bat 1st to maximize plate appearances. Your best hitter may also be your best run producer. I still think your top OBP guy leads of or 2nd and then best run producer is 3rd or 4th. If 3 or 4 you do need a good bat behind him so he does not get pitched around too much. Your best hitter and the best run producer can be two separate people. You definitely shouldn’t bat your best run producer third, I don’t have the exact number but it’s in one of those links I posted but a lot of their plate appearances come with two out and no one on base.
August 7, 20196 yr 35 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said: Your best hitter and the best run producer can be two separate people. You definitely shouldn’t bat your best run producer third, I don’t have the exact number but it’s in one of those links I posted but a lot of their plate appearances come with two out and no one on base. The only reason this is hard to figure out is because we will be loaded. Nice problem to have.
August 7, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, soxfan2014 said: Sign Cole, sign Grandal, sign Kole (Calhoun) if his option is declined, sign Edwin (option will definitely be declined), sign Betances and 2 other relievers. Lineup mid-April (assuming they keep 13 pitchers and not an extra bench player with the expanded rosters): 1. Robert CF 2. Anderson SS 3. Moncada 3B 4. Encarnacion DH/1B 5. Jimenez LF 6. Calhoun RF 7. Grandal C/1B/DH 8. Collins 1B/DH/C 9. Madrigal 2B Bench: McCann C Goins IF Engel OF or some other cheap signing Garcia IF/OF Sidenote: anyone else miss the days when bullpens only had like 6 guys and AL benches had 5 players? Kinda miss the late game strategy of pinch-hitting for certain guys in certain spots and more pinch running. Do you prefer Calhoun to Gordon?
August 7, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said: Do you prefer Calhoun to Gordon? Honestly, I'd take either. Just read an article yesterday about Calhoun and how the Angels have a tough decision whether to pick up his option or not since their payroll is so high. Said that he's a good defender, draws walks and hits for power from the left side. All things this team needs in one package.
August 7, 20196 yr Just now, soxfan2014 said: Honestly, I'd take either. Just read an article yesterday about Calhoun and how the Angels have a tough decision whether to pick up his option or not since their payroll is so high. Said that he's a good defender, draws walks and hits for power from the left side. All things this team needs in one package. Yah, Calhoun is a decent fallback option as well. I would so much rather acquire a RF via trade or go with a cheaper option like Gordon/Calhoun than blowing a ton of our FA budget on Ozuna/Puig/Castellanos. Much prefer Cole and Grandal as primary big money targets, and go shorter term on RF if you can't find a good buylow option via trade. Those guys are all better suited for DH, and we should be able to find a 1B/DH type to pair with Grandal and Collins relatively cheaply - whether that is Abreu or someone like Justin Smoak on a cheap 1 year deal.
August 7, 20196 yr 10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Yah, Calhoun is a decent fallback option as well. I would so much rather acquire a RF via trade or go with a cheaper option like Gordon/Calhoun than blowing a ton of our FA budget on Ozuna/Puig/Castellanos. Much prefer Cole and Grandal as primary big money targets, and go shorter term on RF if you can't find a good buylow option via trade. Those guys are all better suited for DH, and we should be able to find a 1B/DH type to pair with Grandal and Collins relatively cheaply - whether that is Abreu or someone like Justin Smoak on a cheap 1 year deal. If the Halos knew they could trade Calhoun for a small return perhaps they'd pick up his option in order to trade him.
August 7, 20196 yr Just now, Balta1701 said: If the Halos knew they could trade Calhoun for a small return perhaps they'd pick up his option in order to trade him. I'd be surprised if Calhoun had any interest leaguewide at $14M.
August 7, 20196 yr Just now, Balta1701 said: If the Halos knew they could trade Calhoun for a small return perhaps they'd pick up his option in order to trade him. Yeah that's always an option for them.
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