55 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am not ready to proclaim Luis the answer to anything,  yet.  Lot's of guys have big starts and get figured out.

Suzuki this year for example. Or Kwan.

7 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

It’s not luck.

You can find bargains like Jermaine Dye in this bin, but paying top dollar for veterans negotiating their final deal is usually a losing proposition.

Players definitely decline in their 30s but the average decline from age 30-35 is "only" about 0.5 war per year. 

In a long term deal that is huge of course (3 war over 6 years) but with many of those guys we are talking about like going from 2-3 war to negative war within a year. 

Pollock had 3 war last year and - 0.6 so far this year. Encarnacion went from 2.5 to - 0.3 within a year. 

That is not a normal age decline albeit the risk of a total drop of of course goes up with older players. 

3 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Players definitely decline in their 30s but the average decline from age 30-35 is "only" about 0.5 war per year. 

In a long term deal that is huge of course (3 war over 6 years) but with many of those guys we are talking about like going from 2-3 war to negative war within a year. 

Pollock had 3 war last year and - 0.6 so far this year. Encarnacion went from 2.5 to - 0.3 within a year. 

That is not a normal age decline albeit the risk of a total drop of of course goes up with older players. 

The one year deals won't kill you, it's the three four year deals, especially in the $15M-$20M range, where you're at risk of eating a lot of money due to both injuries and natural age decline.

Pollock was unnecessary, they could have actually filled RF or 2B with the Kimbrel option money. Encarnacion made no sense as half of their hitters were/are DH types. Pollock can still pan out hitting, but when Eloy returns they have 4 LF/DHs and still no RFer, either forcing Vaughn or Pollock back out there and having Engel play periodically .

Luis Gonzalez at .309 and Nomar Mazara .421 (8/19) as of this moment…

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Luis Gonzalez at .309 and Nomar Mazara .421 (8/19) as of this moment…

Both have very high babips in a small sample though (especially mazara) and will probably regress. 

58 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Both have very high babips in a small sample though (especially mazara) and will probably regress. 

Or Mazara is now Brett/Gwynn/Jose Ramirez…

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or Mazara is now Brett/Gwynn/Jose Ramirez…

Maybe. Mazara did work with a new private hitting coach and actually hit more balls in the air in the minors this year but I doubt he will be that good. Maybe he can be like an average player at best (which of course would have helped the sox a lot in 2020 with him). 

8 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Maybe. Mazara did work with a new private hitting coach and actually hit more balls in the air in the minors this year but I doubt he will be that good. Maybe he can be like an average player at best (which of course would have helped the sox a lot in 2020 with him). 

Otoh, Cano and Trayce Thompson 4/47.  Rick Hahn could hit more NBA 3 pointers in nearly fifty attempts in an empty United Center.  Maybe.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

22 hours ago, EloyJenkins said:

because there are not steroids or HGH running thru veterans veins anymore. anyone over 32 is a pure risk these days and they love bargain bin shoppiing. 

I think this nails it on the head. It’s happening across the league, not just with the Sox. Almost like these guys get paid in FA and either lay off the juice after signing or perhaps their work ethic declines because they’ve already been paid.

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I think this nails it on the head. It’s happening across the league, not just with the Sox. Almost like these guys get paid in FA and either lay off the juice after signing or perhaps their work ethic declines because they’ve already been paid.

So you have to be the Rays, A’s or Guardians…or Dodgers/Mets on top of the scale.
 

But that doesn’t exactly explain Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout, Machado or Buxton…to name just a few who are performing on long extensions.  Alvarez, Harper, Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Betts, George Springer.

Devers is one of the few on a one year deal, like Judge and Trea Turner whose extension is ending.  Contreras another one expiring, and at the top of the TDL want list for many teams.

 

Extension are perfectly fine for the true superstars, just not the next couple of tiers down.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So you have to be the Rays, A’s or Guardians…or Dodgers/Mets on top of the scale.
 

But that doesn’t exactly explain Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout, Machado or Buxton…to name just a few who are performing on long extensions.

Literally none of those guys are the age they are discussing. Just an unbelievable confidence to constantly “So what about” when you can’t follow basic conversation points.

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So you have to be the Rays, A’s or Guardians…or Dodgers/Mets on top of the scale.
 

But that doesn’t exactly explain Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout, Machado or Buxton…to name just a few who are performing on long extensions.  Alvarez, Harper, Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Betts, George Springer.

Devers is one of the few on a one year deal, like Judge and Trea Turner whose extension is ending.  Contreras another one expiring, and at the top of the TDL want list for many teams.

 

Extension are perfectly fine for the true superstars, just not the next couple of tiers down.

There are exceptions to everything but in general you can’t win a title simply building around free agents any longer

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

Literally none of those guys are the age they are discussing. Just an unbelievable confidence to constantly “So what about” when you can’t follow basic conversation points.

Because there aren’t many good examples anymore because teams are getting much smarter.

Semien?  Ray?   Goldschmidt or Arenado are closer.  Votto.  Cabrera is the poster child, along with Pujols.

What is the definition of long term?

Three or four years?  Five?

We can basically only say that Rick Hahn constantly overpays veterans in their thirties, but never true mega deals because we only care about risk mitigation at the  back end of deals, and we still have to worry about Keuchel, Grandal, Kelly, Hendriks and Lynn.  So we haven’t really eliminated anything in the end if they are all blowing up in Hahn’s face.

In fact, I would argue discussing anything under $100 million is pointless.  But that’s the only comfort zone ($40-75 million) where the White Sox are willing to operate until they prove naysayers wrong.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

There are exceptions to everything but in general you can’t win a title simply building around free agents any longer

You’re either a Top 3-5% star level player or you’re going to be up the creek without a paddle.

Look at the Bryant and Baez deals.  Just more Heyward deals, and he signed that at his absolute prime as a player, not 30-32.  Those two sticking around at the dollars they got would have simply crippled the Cubs.  And giving Contreras one in his thirties will for the next team desperate enough to overpay for a Top 5 catcher.

As it stands, they really rolled the dice with Stroman and Suzuki considering their relative competitive position…but to what end now?

 

The Giants have clearly figured all this out.  They are the best run organization in terms of optimizing talent without running a Top 5 payroll.  Without a doubt.  The Braves, Rays, Brewers all fit here as well.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

And I will just ask Maggs why I was the only one who has been right about the Twins consistently since the very beginning of the season.

Everyone laughed and said they would collapse…be under .500 in May, the White Sox would win 109 games, etc.

I once predicted 7-8 games back for the Sox heading into early June, and it was “just 5-6 ahead” instead because the entire Twins organization was injured or on the Covid list and they had to go ten starters deep.  This was also due to a recent 3-6 streak against the Royals and Tigers, or it would have been spot on.  In addition, Cali and I were the only ones arguing on behalf of Buxton’s potential and what a steal that $100 million extension would be.

If you follow all the division teams closely, it’s far easier to be objective about your own team’s strengths and weaknesses.

The Guardians might even be scarier with a lineup featuring one Astro, two Mets and five Padres castoffs…all they need is one more starting pitcher, a reliever and another bat like a Josh Bell or Benintendi to be right there.  They are VERY hard to beat at home. You almost expect them to come back almost every single game.  And Clase is becoming the best closer in the division at a pittance of what Hendriks makes. Not to mention they have the best topline minor league depth by far of any of the five teams with Witt Jr. and Melendez moving up for KC and all the injuries across the Tigers’ system.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

Mazara's ops was decent except for Sox and Tigers 20-21. 

21 hours ago, Pants Rowland said:

I seriously have come to the conclusion that the Chicago White Sox are just a bad organization. It's really not one thing but a combination of ineptitude in so many directions and their free agent additions are just one part of the big picture. Hahn did a nice job getting quality talent for a handful of trade chips a few years ago, and some signings out of Cuba have been a bright spot, but overall I do not think this organization provides the support their players need to have any sustained level of success or overcome any hint of adversity. 

Close thread please.  Thanks for participating everybody.

On 6/10/2022 at 9:38 AM, Snopek said:

On a loooong list of frustrating things about the organization, this is near the top for me. Obviously all organizations hope for things like this, but the amount of weight it seems to carry in this FO is bananas. It almost feels like they imagine up a best case scenario where everything works out perfectly and then completely focus all energy on that.

Catching Lightening in a Bottle has been Reinsdorf's MO ever since Ellis Burke.

52 minutes ago, GradMc said:

Catching Lightening in a Bottle has been Reinsdorf's MO ever since Ellis Burke.

Burks

Not as bad as Sax/Cory Snyder.

Edited June 11, 20223 yr by caulfield12

Most are at end of careers

On 6/10/2022 at 8:53 AM, Dominikk85 said:

I get it is not all luck as part of the issue is that jerry won't pay up for the top guys, but the kind of "success" they had in the last couple years is just unreal. 

Sure a lot of them are older and some regression was expected but certainly not that much. 

 

Pollock is a good example, he has been injury prone but generally a solid player when healthy. Some regression was expected but he still was projected for a 110-115 wrc+, now he is at 78.

Encarnacion had a 130 wrc+ in 2019 and 70 in 2020. 

Mazara was a mid 90s wrc+ guy and went to worst hitter in the league (66 wrc+). Cesar hernandez of course wasn't as good as the first half of last season indicated but you could have expected like a mid 90s wrc+. 

Kimbrel also overperformed in the first half last year but no way he is that bad

 

That happened so many times and I'm not sure why it happened. 

 

The team gets criticized for not having enough depth and being a stars and scrubs team but really many of those acquisitions shouldn't habe been that bad, they just needed to be 1 WAR guys instead of minus 1 WAR guys and couldn't climb that low bar. That is really strange. 

Yeah, the front office did buy high on veterans and in some cases it probably was a dead cat bounce but that it always went all the way down is just strange. 

Most of the guys you mentioned are past their prime player and did not rebound elsewhere. So yea, this is mainly a byproduct of targeting low end of the market for bargains, bad scouting and player analytics in general.

Guys coming from the NL don't play well in a Sox uniform.  They don't.  If you think Grandal has worked out it shows how low are standards are.

In recent years, the only guy I can think of where they struck gold on was a backup Catcher in James McCann. Otherwise it is mostly a constant let down with free agent signings.

Some call it unlucky, some call it being cheap. 

47 minutes ago, WilliamTell said:

In recent years, the only guy I can think of where they struck gold on was a backup Catcher in James McCann. Otherwise it is mostly a constant let down with free agent signings.

Players acquired by Rick Hahn this decade earning over 2.0 bWAR (over 1.0  bWAR for RPs) per year (ML pro-rated) with the White Sox. 

Calendar Year;  * = Resigned after initial acquisition via extension or free agent without separation. (White Sox Seasons)

Marco Paddy - International Signing (9.4 Player Seasons): Jose Abreu (7.7) 2013 * & Luis Robert (1.7) 2017.

Doug Laumann - Amateur Draft (5.7 Player Seasons): Tim Anderson (5.7) 2013.

Rick Hahn - Trades (4.8 Player; 1.4 Starter & 3.7 Relief Pitcher Seasons): Adam Eaton (3.0) 2013; Tommy Kahnle (1.4) 2015; Todd Frazier (1.4) 2015; Joakim Soria (0.6) 2018; Alex Colome (1.4) 2018; Lance Lynn (1.4) 2020 *; Ryan Tepera (0.3) 2021; Reese McGuire (0.4) 2022

Rick Hahn - Free Agents (3.1 Player, 2.2 Starter & 5.0 Relief Pitcher Seasons): David Robertson (2.6) 2014; Miguel Gonzalez (1.8) 2016; Anthony Swarzak (0.6) 2017; James McCann (1.4) 2018; Yasmani Grandal (1.7) 2019; Liam Hendriks (1.4) 2021; Kendell Graveman (0.4) 2021; Johnny Cueto (0.4) 2022

Rick Hahn - Tanking Trades (4.7 Player & 7.1 Starter Seasons): Michael Kopech (2.4) 2016; Yoan Moncada (4.7) 2016; Lucas Giolito (4.7) 2016.

Pro-rated Per Year Total: 3.2 Player, 1.2 Starter & 1.0 Reliever seasons per year of average plus White Sox ballplayers (5.4 of a 25/26 man roster).