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AJ Preller/Padres' moves (will keep comments sequestered here)


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This was written after they missed the post season last year and basically imploded.

 

"In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team’s top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

.....

Every one of the 12 position players who had at least 185 plate appearances for the Padres this season was acquired via trade or free agency, half of them since November 2019. Of the 16 pitchers who appeared in at least 20 games this season, 11 were added since February 2020.

The Padres’ 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades."

 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2021-09-27/padres-aj-preller-trades-free-agents-roster-process-timeline-machado-tatis-hosmer

Edited by caulfield12
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I will just state it like this.

Even though I try to watch every White Sox fan, and have since the 1980's, the Rick Hahn Era has driven me crazy.

First, I became a Puig fan individually in 2013, after the 2012 Sox collapse down the stretch.

Having lived in KC nearly a decade and witnessed the worst of their fan suffering...they were an easy team to root for and appreciate in 2014/15, just like Harrelson did.  Those teams were the opposite of today's Sox.

Then there was selling off Tatis and Eric Johnson because JR prioritized saving $31 million in payroll (Shields' remaining salary on June 4th that year) over keeping his talent in house.  Should have been a clue we thought someone we weren't even willing to pay more than half his salary was going to save 2016.

Then the travesty of signing Machado three different times... according to ESPN headlines.  Friends & Family with Jay and Alonso forced me into having a favorite NL team once again as I did in the 80's and 90's growing up listening to Jack Buck/Mike Shannon Cardinals' broadcasts on KMOX affiliates close to the Quad Cities.

I really couldn't let go of the fantasy of Robert Moncada Tatis and Jimenez all playing together, so SD became the closest proxy, sealed by losing Machado to them as well.  If one team wasn't going to succeed, maybe the other would.  And they rarely play head to head...of course, the Padres and White Sox will meet this year that final week sandwiched by two series with the Twins.

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Posted (edited)

Soto's already made one terrible defensive play.  Froze on a ball, lost this momentum then got tutned around twice as it went over his head.

Also obliterated a ball but it went right to 1B for a double play stepping on bag.

Btw, Jose Iglesias having a really nice season offensively but might end up hitting just .220-.230 on the Sox.  Then again already has the patented Menechino oppo approach down pat.

Drury would have had homers in consecutive games but Hilliard made one of the 10-15 best defensive plays in the OF this season.

Finally, Musgrove fantasy owners won't be pleased with 6 ER.  Two poor starts in a row now ... extension talks might be affecting him.

Edited by caulfield12
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  So what are you getting at in all of this? 

I skimmed through the article but it seems the prospects they traded away haven't worked out either.

I heard on the SCORE yesterday some thought the Padres were great at developing players. 

I think you brought this article up last year.

So few teams seem to have a sustained success. It will be interesting to see how the Mets pan out.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

  So what are you getting at in all of this? 

I skimmed through the article but it seems the prospects they traded away haven't worked out either.

I heard on the SCORE yesterday some thought the Padres were great at developing players. 

I think you brought this article up last year.

So few teams seem to have a sustained success. It will be interesting to see how the Mets pan out.

That the real reason the Padres are where they're at now in terms of talent is willingness to spend $80 million one year in int'l, blow through those tax penalties...swing for the fences in the June draft, and stockpile so much depth that it takes six years to blow through 80-85% of it.

And then being on the right side of the Machado negotiations...which makes it so much easier to attract additional talent when you have a young star in the prime of his career to build upon.

 

The reality is you have that unique situation of an owner in a bottom 5 media market willing to blow through spending limits...creative development projects like the Cubs that complement the team and feed indirectly back into it...and then having already lost two professional sports franchises, being the only show in town makes a ton if difference.

The willingness (andcrisk tolerance) to sign massive seemingly risky contracts and to not mess around until you get the right manager to steer the ship calmly.

Almost like Nebraska football in the 80s 90s early 2000s, except the opposite weather.

Edited by caulfield12
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2 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

  So what are you getting at in all of this? 

I skimmed through the article but it seems the prospects they traded away haven't worked out either.

I heard on the SCORE yesterday some thought the Padres were great at developing players. 

I think you brought this article up last year.

So few teams seem to have a sustained success. It will be interesting to see how the Mets pan out.

I had predicted at least 5 posts by caulfield before someone replied. I guess it was under.

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Posted (edited)

Maybe it will pick up with all focus on Dodgers/Padres despite the huge differential in the standings, 12 1/2, when it was tied about a month ago.  Actually, the biggest concern now is Clayton Kershaw’s troublesome back again.

Fortunately for LA it will be at Chavez, which is somehow fitting with Vin Scully passing away this week and the funeral this weekend.

 

Also, Nationals did the obvious thing and sent CJ Abrams down to the minors despite a 230ish average.

Edited by caulfield12
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9 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I had predicted at least 5 posts by caulfield before someone replied. I guess it was under.

Probably because there’s not much to poke fun at yet…and Kelenic/M’s are doing well, also.

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14 minutes ago, Quin said:

Saw this on FB and it's just an A+ meme

received_463578068947155.jpeg

Poor KD.

But there’s a slight difference between leading your team like Soto at age 20-21 to a World Series title versus joining a pre-existing, ready made operation already at the summit in GS.  That and the fact that having baseball’s very best player in Trout doesn’t even guarantee playoffs nor even a playoff series victory even once.

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16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Poor KD.

But there’s a slight difference between leading your team like Soto at age 20-21 to a World Series title versus joining a pre-existing, ready made operation already at the summit in GS.  That and the fact that having baseball’s very best player in Trout doesn’t even guarantee playoffs nor even a playoff series victory even once.

Caulfield this is overreading a meme.

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Note to all teams…don’t walk batters in front of Max Muncy with strikes on them or hang 2 strike sliders when he has the worst average in baseball among qualified hitters against fastballs at .173 and had struggled with that pitch earlier in the at-bat. 

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Posted (edited)

Also, if they fail to make the postseason, with 52 games left and Tatis coming back next week…Preller will be launched into the sun and someone else will be brought in to finish the job.  Melvin might be gone, too…but likely he gets another chance in 2023 with an entire healthy roster for the season, in theory.

SD falling short might get so much attention around baseball that it will take some of the attention away from teams like the White Sox and Angels.

Losing 15/17 or 16/18 to the Dodgers dating back to last August simply isn’t acceptable for a $230 million payroll team.  Thankfully, they have an ownership group not content to finish second or third to LA every year.

 

All that said, the odds of losing out to Philly, Milwaukee and St. Louis aren’t THAT high, but anything is possible.

One could even argue the final 6 WC spot against Milwaukee or St. Louis would be a better path than through Atlanta 4/5 matchup…just like playing 3 Minnesota instead of the 4-5 Jays/Rays/Mariners on the AL side of the ledger. 

Edited by caulfield12
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

THE PADRES WON THE TRADE DEADLINE! (Padres are 2-5 since the trade deadline)

Well, Drury has lost two homers over the fence and another controversial replay reversal in less than a week…called out at home in what became a 1-0 loss the night before that must have required 12-15 different angles.

And Josh Hader blew a 4-1 lead and could easily have replicated his six run/three homer disaster against that same Giants team a month ago in SF.

 

Next twenty games after today  @ Washington, @Miami, Washington, CLE (2), KC, at SF

Edited by caulfield12
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Posted (edited)

All Preller trade list

Rotation:  Max Fried, Quantrill, L.Patino, Eric Lauer, Chris Paddack, Mackenzie Gore, Zach Davies (pretty sure FA)

Bullpen:  Matt Brash (dominated Yanks for Seattle last night), Bednar (All Star), Taylor Rogers, Angel Pagan, Andres Munoz, Brad Wieck, Wisler, Maton, L.Perdomo, Matt Strahm, Dinelson Lamet (Colorado via Mil),

Catchers: Grandal, F.Mejia, Hedges, Caratini

Middle infielders:  Trea Turner, Luis Urias, CJ Abrams, Xavier Edwards/Rays, Esteury Ruiz/Brewers, Owen Miller/Guardians, Jorge Mateo (2.2 bWAR with Orioles), Jack Suwinski/Pirates

1B/DH/Outfield:  Ty France, Josh Naylor, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Tommy Pham (FA), Eric Hosmer

Bench: T. Marcano, Franchy Cordero, Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson

 

Plus Top 50 MiLB James Wood, Robert Hassell, #8 Jarlin Susana (2022 Intl. Signing Class)….Juan Soto deal

Cubs’ Owen Caissie and Reggie Preciado (Yu Darvish trade)

Edited by caulfield12
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Posted (edited)

The Padres have a bonus pool of $10,088,900, 11th-highest in the Majors. That should help as they try to lure Lesko away from Vanderbilt University and Snelling away from LSU.

Though the Saturday night lights of Death Valley are not in play for Snelling, he has longstanding ties to Tigers baseball coach Jay Johnson, who got to know Snelling and his family while serving as the University of Nevada baseball coach from 2014-15.

 

Dylan Lesko, 18, signed for $3.9 million, was among the top Draft prospects this year before dropping because he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. With the best changeup in the Draft class, per MLB Pipeline, and a fastball that already touches 97 mph, he has a strong foundation for development after his rehab.

Snelling, 18, signed for $3 million, was a Division I prospect as a football linebacker and he pondered playing both sports in college before committing to LSU as a baseball player only. He, too, boasts a 97 mph fastball and he has plenty of room to grow after concentrating on baseball development full time.

Adam Mazur, 21, signed for $1.25 million, is a late bloomer. He didn’t pitch at all until his junior year at Woodbury High School in Minnesota. He started his college career at South Dakota State University, which didn’t have a pitching coach on staff for part of his time there. With a five-pitch mix, Mazur blossomed in the Cape Cod League over the summer of 2021, before he transferred to Iowa and became the Big Ten pitcher of the year in ’22.

https://www.mlb.com/news/robby-snelling-adam-mazur-round-out-padres-picks-on-day-1-of-2022-mlb-draft

 

Edited by caulfield12
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Posted (edited)

Equity makes sense

There was some hullabaloo created last week when an anonymous baseball executive was quoted in an article by Jayson Stark of The Athletic as saying he was unsure what the Padres’ business model was in the wake of the trades for Soto, et al.

There has been some consternation around baseball for a couple years that Peter Seidler is a rogue owner who has upset the system to a certain extent by committing so much financially as a mid-market franchise.

The Padres are selling more tickets and, thus, more concessions and parking passes. They are on pace to pass 3 million fans for just the second time in Petco Park history. And it will take a lot of tickets and beers to pay the $70 million or so that Soto will be owed over the next two seasons. And it would take exponentially more to sign him to a long-term contract.

But in recent days, some have said to look no further than the $4.65 billion price paid by Walmart heir Rob Walton for the Denver Broncos. The purchase, which was approved by NFL owners Tuesday, was completed for almost $1 billion more than the franchise’s most recent valuation by Forbes.

The Padres, who were purchased in 2012 for $800 million, are valued at $1.6 billion by Forbes. That is not the same as what they are worth. Teams virtually always sell for far more than their “value.”

Balancing the books on a yearly basis is a legitimate challenge for MLB teams. That doesn’t mean they don’t have money they can spend.

All right, that’s it for me. Early flight this morning.

No game today, so talk to you on Saturday after the opener in Washington.

Kevin Acee, San Diego Union Tribune

 

 

Does this make financial or baseball sense? Five years ago, the Padres had an Opening Day payroll of $69.6 million. And now they’ve blown through the luxury-tax threshold for the second straight year. They play in the 22nd-largest media market in baseball. So wow.

“I don’t know how they’re paying for it,” said one exec.

“I can’t understand San Diego’s business model,” said another.

But a third exec said: “I give their ownership group a ton of credit. They’ve financially committed to building an incredible major-league product. So obviously, they’re thinking that if you invest in building a strong brand, the money will all work out in the long run. … And I also think that if I owned a team, I’d be thinking it’s fun to win, so what’s the most fun thing we could do for me and our fans to watch? Let’s do that.”

Well, in that case, why not trade for Juan Soto? That sure looked like fun Wednesday night, even if Preller now has a lot of work to do to refill the tank of organizational talent he just drained to make these deals.

“I’ll say this about A.J.,” said one of the execs quoted earlier. “He’s one of the best acquirers of young talent in our game, and he’s one of the best at being willing to give up that talent to bring in major-league players he has a chance to trade for. And he doesn’t seem concerned about the cost if it makes his major-league team exponentially better. It’s a very noble way to operate — because his job would be a lot safer if he just held onto those players.”

Jayson Stark, The Athletic

 

 

So what did Soto learn from that team that he can take and apply to this Padres team?

“The energy,” Soto said. “The good vibes and the energy that we had that year -- that makes everybody great. That’s all we need. … We already have the talent.”

Soto is taking it upon himself to bring that energy. When the Padres fell behind, 1-0, in the first inning Tuesday night, Soto came into the dugout fired up. The Padres had dropped five straight, and Soto wasn’t having any of it.

“He started screaming at the dugout, like, ‘Let’s go, we got this’ -- just trying to motivate the guys,” said third baseman Manny Machado.

Machado just celebrated the 10-year anniversary of his big league debut. (He did it in style, too, with a walk-off home run.)  But even a veteran like Machado says he can learn from his new 23-year-old superstar teammate.

“I’m going to be excited to see what he brings down the road,” Machado said. “Especially being a champion -- that’s what we needed here, overall. I could feed off that. I could learn off that. I’ve been to a World Series. But he won it. It’s a little different.

“Just feeding off that is going to be huge. I think he’s going to bring the best out of everyone in this clubhouse.”

AJ Casavell, mlb.com

Edited by caulfield12
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Posted (edited)

If they keep calling plays like that catcher's interference at home...then there's no point even trying to throw runners out at all.

You're supposed to not catch the ball where it's thrown but rush towards it then lunge backwards?

That's not even baseball anymore.

 

 

Edited by caulfield12
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Have watched a few Padres games this week.  Man, that team has zero chemistry.  Josh Bell has forgot how to hit.  Hader has been awful as well.  Have to wonder if the Tatis stuff is distracting them.

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5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Have watched a few Padres games this week.  Man, that team has zero chemistry.  Josh Bell has forgot how to hit.  Hader has been awful as well.  Have to wonder if the Tatis stuff is distracting them.

Definitely feels like the Brewers knew Hader was broken when they traded him away. He is giving off major 2021 Kimbrel vibes.

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