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5 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Speaking of LOL:
For the 17-10 proposition to work (there were 17 games left when the proposition was made), Cleveland would have to finish 15-14 or worse,  with 14 of those games against the Royals, Angels and Rangers.  Oh it could happen; but to suggest that that is likely is rabbit's-foot stuff.

For my 20-7 to win the division (not "handily", just win) Cleveland would have to go 18-11 or worse; they probably will go 18-11 or worse, but it's hardly inconceivable that they get hot and do better than that. And if they go a modest 16-13 (now 15-13), that shifts the Sox to 18-9 (now 18-8) to win this division.

Eh, if the Sox and Twins take care of business against the Guardians it’s very likely the Guardians finish one game under .500 the rest of the way.

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8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Pollock is a natural platoon for Colas, and he’s almost certainly on the roster. Still think they should sign an actual OF tho; Colas - Robert - Nimmo is a good defensive OF. I let Jose walk and put AV at 1B in this scenario. Eloy DH. But you can trade AV for SP and keep Abreu too. Sheets is Eloy insurance and Pollock 4th OF that probably ends up with 400+ ABs. It’s a much much better roster. 

I still don’t think they have the money for this, but in this scenario I would imagine that signing an OF actually either benches Colas or more likely puts him at AAA until there’s an injury. It would be Pollock-Robert-Nimmo until injury, with Eloy and Sheets playing fairly regularly out there and Engel on the bench.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I still don’t think they have the money for this, but in this scenario I would imagine that signing an OF actually either benches Colas or more likely puts him at AAA until there’s an injury. 

I read recently in one of the mainstream media stories the thought is Colas could get called up next May (service time issues)

Till then and remember the Sox have 10 of the first 14 on the road, I have no idea what they'll do but you can't get buried early.

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15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Eh, if the Sox and Twins take care of business against the Guardians it’s very likely the Guardians finish one game under .500 the rest of the way.

I just don't feel the Twins.  Of course I didn't feel them when they were winning 90+ games a couple of years ago, so...

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21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I still don’t think they have the money for this, but in this scenario I would imagine that signing an OF actually either benches Colas or more likely puts him at AAA until there’s an injury. It would be Pollock-Robert-Nimmo until injury, with Eloy and Sheets playing fairly regularly out there and Engel on the bench.

There’s plenty of money for Nimmo if Abreu is gone. They’ll get paid similarly enough on an AAV basis. 

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44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I still don’t think they have the money for this, but in this scenario I would imagine that signing an OF actually either benches Colas or more likely puts him at AAA until there’s an injury. It would be Pollock-Robert-Nimmo until injury, with Eloy and Sheets playing fairly regularly out there and Engel on the bench.

This got me curious because you've been banging this Sox have no payroll space drum for awhile, and its just really not accurate.  

Sox have $130m committed to 13 players in Lynn, Grandal, Moncada, Hendriks, TA, Eloy, Pollock, Robert, Kelly, Graveman, Garcia, Bummer and Diekman.   They have ~$26.5m locked into 7 arb players in Giolito, Cease, Engel (non tender candidate), Kopech, Lopez, Mendick (non tender candidate) and Ruiz (non tender candidate), which include healthy raises in the arb estimates.  Fill out the roster with 6 pre-arb guys and you're at ~$4m. That is approximately $160M payroll on a team with a $196M payroll in 2022.  SO they have at least $30M to play with on an AAV basis and that would include a slight reduction in payroll from 2022 to 2023.  

There is plenty of room to sign a notable FA. 

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5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I thought you were a Conforto guy?

I like Conforto, certainly was a Conforto guy going into this season before it was known he was out for the season.  Its pretty obvious that he would have a been a huge piece to this team if were available.

As for 2023, he'd be a solid back up option to Nimmo, but Nimmo is a better fit at this point. That doesn't mean Conforto wasn't a great roster fit for this team this year had he been healthy.  

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21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This got me curious because you've been banging this Sox have no payroll space drum for awhile, and its just really not accurate.  

Sox have $130m committed to 13 players in Lynn, Grandal, Moncada, Hendriks, TA, Eloy, Pollock, Robert, Kelly, Graveman, Garcia, Bummer and Diekman.   They have ~$26.5m locked into 7 arb players in Giolito, Cease, Engel (non tender candidate), Kopech, Lopez, Mendick (non tender candidate) and Ruiz (non tender candidate), which include healthy raises in the arb estimates.  Fill out the roster with 6 pre-arb guys and you're at ~$4m. That is approximately $160M payroll on a team with a $196M payroll in 2022.  SO they have at least $30M to play with on an AAV basis and that would include a slight reduction in payroll from 2022 to 2023.  

There is plenty of room to sign a notable FA. 

First problem is you’re off by $10 million. I just added again including Pollock and Anderson and got $141 million and change. Fix that and I basically agree. Take those arb numbers and you’re right around $170 million give or take arb numbers and who they let go.

So let’s work with $190 million as the target. Imagine they sign Nimmo for $20 million a year. Using correct numbers, that has spent essentially your entire budget. Not only is that the only upgrade, but Davis Martin is the only 5th starter I see on the roster. 

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20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I like Conforto, certainly was a Conforto guy going into this season before it was known he was out for the season.  Its pretty obvious that he would have a been a huge piece to this team if were available.

As for 2023, he'd be a solid back up option to Nimmo, but Nimmo is a better fit at this point. That doesn't mean Conforto wasn't a great roster fit for this team this year had he been healthy.  

Apparently he was offered 2 years/$30M by the Astros. That’s too rich for my blood for a big question mark coming off a missed season. I think Nimmo is a far better fit bit highly doubt the Sox are in the running for him. I think it’s Colas or bust next season and beyond.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Apparently he was offered 2 years/$30M by the Astros. That’s too rich for my blood for a big question mark coming off a missed season. I think Nimmo is a far better fit bit highly doubt the Sox are in the running for him. I think it’s Colas or bust next season and beyond.

Sox need 2 OF, not 1. Colas is one corner, another OF in the other.  Sheets and AV should be nothing but emergency OFs moving forward. 

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5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

First problem is you’re off by $10 million. I just added again including Pollock and Anderson and got $141 million and change. Fix that and I basically agree. Take those arb numbers and you’re right around $170 million give or take arb numbers and who they let go.

So let’s work with $190 million as the target. Imagine they sign Nimmo for $20 million a year. Using correct numbers, that has spent essentially your entire budget. Not only is that the only upgrade, but Davis Martin is the only 5th starter I see on the roster. 

Yes, I missed a 0 on Pollock's salary when entering into the spreadsheet.  That's my bad.  I am at $139M on the 13 committed salaries, so yes basically same place as you.  Though Sox could easily find $5M for a 5th SP by non tendering Engel and Ruiz, or just not slashing payroll by a measly $5M.  

Point is, they have $20-30M to spend on an OF and 5th SP, or Abreu and whatever is needed after the trade package received for AV. I certainly prefer to see them go the let Abreu walk and sign Nimmo route, but think Sox are more likely to give Abreu 2/$30M and trade AV for a SP, unfortunately. 

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26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yes, I missed a 0 on Pollock's salary when entering into the spreadsheet.  That's my bad.  I am at $139M on the 13 committed salaries, so yes basically same place as you.  Though Sox could easily find $5M for a 5th SP by non tendering Engel and Ruiz, or just not slashing payroll by a measly $5M.  

Point is, they have $20-30M to spend on an OF and 5th SP, or Abreu and whatever is needed after the trade package received for AV. I certainly prefer to see them go the let Abreu walk and sign Nimmo route, but think Sox are more likely to give Abreu 2/$30M and trade AV for a SP, unfortunately. 

And that’s $20 to $30 million with them maybe holding some money back for the trade deadline, and assuming no payroll cuts which remains iffy and you better hope for a couple playoff series wins to make that happen. So yeah, they could probably sign an OF and a starter, but you better hope for a Cueto like performance from one of them just to match this year. And oh yeah, this bullpen still isn’t very good either. So at the very least this is a tough task.

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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

And that’s $20 to $30 million with them maybe holding some money back for the trade deadline, and assuming no payroll cuts which remains iffy and you better hope for a couple playoff series wins to make that happen. So yeah, they could probably sign an OF and a starter, but you better hope for a Cueto like performance from one of them just to match this year. And oh yeah, this bullpen still isn’t very good either. So at the very least this is a tough task.

I don't believe they go into seasons sandbagging payroll for the trade deadline. It works itself out, as either the team is performing well, they get a bump in stadium revenue, and can afford addons, or it works out like this season, where the team underperforms, attendance follows and they sit pat at the deadline.

I don't believe Hahn "couldn't get a deal done" out of incompetence this deadline (or in 2020). I believe they looked at the situation within 1-2 weeks of the deadline and decided to sit with what they have based on their limited prospects (no Starting Pitchers and no revenue in 2020. In 2022 lower stadium revenue, rash of injuries and little expectation to get healthy and do much in October if they actually qualified for the playoffs).

The problem is the 2023 FA class is poor for the Sox needs (2B FA Options, and not much in RF). I don't see the Sox in the running for Judge, see Nimmo returning to NY, and another team outbidding the Sox for Conforto assuming they are even interested.

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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11-7 should still do it BUT I think that now needs to include a 3 game sweep of Cleveland next week so that the Sox own the head to head tiebreaker. I don’t think 2/3 will be enough since that would still give the Guardians a 1 game season series edge and tiebreaker (damn Josh Naylor game).

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2 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Sox have 3 games in Detroit this weekend and Cleveland hosts the Twins for 4.  Got to keep winning games and hope to get a little help before the potentially huge series that starts Tuesday.  

Cleveland actually has 5 games in 4 days against Minnesota. If the Sox can take 2/3 vs Detroit and Minnesota takes 3/5, Sox are two games back heading into next week’s series. Still think they are going to need to sweep Cleveland.

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4 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Sox have 3 games in Detroit this weekend and Cleveland hosts the Twins for 4.  Got to keep winning games and hope to get a little help before the potentially huge series that starts Tuesday.  

Min and Cle are playing 5. Two Saturday and Monday afternoon. Probably best realistic outcome is 2-3 for Cle and Sox sweep the Tigers. Then Cease beats the Guardians on Tuesday. Both teams 78-70 with 14 left.

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