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Is Now the Time to Trade Gio?

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1 hour ago, Pal said:

Sharp decline coinciding with Spider Tack ban.

 

 

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    Q and Cueto are the definition of old blood in this example. 

  • Also worth remembering that Giolito is fully eligible for a QO and a returning draft pick if the White Sox hold onto him for another year, so whatever they get back better be substantially more valuab

  • Jake Burger holding down 3b is like Andrew Vaughn holding down RF last year. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

 

 

K/9 is significantly down. From 11.6 in 2019 to 9.1 here. There's something to the spider tack argument. 

 

Opinion: 

Gio averaging 94+ mph=#2

Gio averaging 93.5 mph=#3-4 

Gio averaging 93.0  mph=#5

Gio averaging under 93 mph=toast

 

Which guy are we getting in 2023? 

Edited by Jack Parkman

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

K/9 is significantly down. From 11.6 in 2019 to 9.1 here. There's something to the spider tack argument. 

Of course there is, but he also was a productive pitcher afterwards in 2021.  His issues in 2022 go well beyond spider tack.

  • Author
8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

K/9 is significantly down. From 11.6 in 2019 to 9.1 here. There's something to the spider tack argument. 

The timing does not match.

Gio was pretty awesome his first 6 starts of 2022. 2.63 ERA . A ton of strikeouts. I still believe. 

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The timing does not match.

What are you talking about? 

I'm curious what Giolito's K/9 was from the start of the 2021 season to June 20th 2021. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Gio was pretty awesome his first 6 starts of 2022. 2.63 ERA . A ton of strikeouts. I still believe. 

Yeah - he fell apart after Covid and some other stuff (can't remember what).  Could just be coincidence too.  Or maybe something was off, I don't know. But I do know this guy works hard and is always looking at optimizing things and this drop-off was nothing compared to how he started his career in the MLB and how he remastered his game.  

  • Author
3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

What are you talking about? 

I'm curious what Giolito's K/9 was from the start of the 2021 season to June 20th 2021. 

His numbers after the ban are above.  The timing doesn't match

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

What are you talking about? 

I'm curious what Giolito's K/9 was from the start of the 2021 season to June 20th 2021. 

103 strikeouts in 81 innings. You coulda looked that one up yourself. 

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

His numbers after the ban are above.  The timing doesn't match

It does, actually. 

Giolito's K/9 dropped to 9.1 after the ban. Pre ban in 2021 it was 11.4. 

In 2019 his K/9 was 11.6 and in 2020 it was 12.1

Edited by Jack Parkman

8 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Yeah - he fell apart after Covid and some other stuff (can't remember what).  Could just be coincidence too.  Or maybe something was off, I don't know. But I do know this guy works hard and is always looking at optimizing things and this drop-off was nothing compared to how he started his career in the MLB and how he remastered his game.  

He pulled an oblique muscle in the game on opening day and missed most of April.

There was discussion in the offseason about him adding a bunch of muscle, so there's been some reasonable speculation that this was a part of his 2022 as well. One of those "too strong, screwed with your flexibility" kinda setups. 

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

103 strikeouts in 81 innings. You coulda looked that one up yourself. 

Where did you get those splits? 

I have been searching sites and haven't been able to isolate splits like you just did. 

 

You got any fastball data from 2021 before/after the ban? 

I seem to remember him losing a tick or two after the ban. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

Pre-all-star, 2022 Giolito: 102 strikeouts in 87 innings.

Post all-star 2022 Giolito: 75 strikeouts in 73 innings. 

2 straight years his K-rate has dropped in the 2nd half. 

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Where did you get those splits? 

I have been searching sites and haven't been able to isolate splits like you just did. 

 

You got any fastball data from 2021 before/after the ban? 

I seem to remember him losing a tick or two after the ban. 

Grumbles something about this being easy to look up.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito-608337?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

chart.jpeg

If you average by month, his fastball velocity was at its highest in July 2021. It was down a little in August-September just as his K rate dropped. 

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Do you have this in number form? 

Click the link. Get the chart to the right setting and move your mouse cursor over the start or month in question and it will report the value for that point. 

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

K/9 is significantly down. From 11.6 in 2019 to 9.1 here. There's something to the spider tack argument. 

 

Opinion: 

Gio averaging 94+ mph=#2

Gio averaging 93.5 mph=#3-4 

Gio averaging 93.0  mph=#5

Gio averaging under 93 mph=toast

 

Which guy are we getting in 

100% the lower velocity is why he sucked.  I’ve never been more sure of anything out her related

I'd lightly float him to see if a west coast team has interest and would consider packaging him along with just about any position player(s) other than Robert and Vaughn. I think a team like the Dodgers or Padres might be very willing trade partners. 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

 

 

You could make a decent argument that he was better in 2021 after the ban rather than before, but for some reason that narrative just won't die

Edited by Jose Abreu

18 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

You could make a decent argument that he was better in 2021 after the ban rather than before, but for some reason that narrative just won't die

Mid July yes, but I believe he had a leg injury and tired out down the stretch.

That insane changeup he was sporting to Start the year though, he lost that with the ban.

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Click the link. Get the chart to the right setting and move your mouse cursor over the start or month in question and it will report the value for that point. 

I gotta dig deeper into Baseball Savant. I have no idea how the damn site works. Just what they show on the default player pages. 

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I gotta dig deeper into Baseball Savant. I have no idea how the damn site works. Just what they show on the default player pages. 

The site is really good. Basically it is a web based bi tool and you can filter different pitches groups of pitches and than see trends over window and look at all kinds of advanced splits - spin rate trend, h-rate etc or on hitters lots of data too. It is phenomenal. 

I think he beefed up too much. His head has swollen like Barry Bonds

Edited by FourEyesShottenhoffer

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