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2024 - MLB Draft Thread


DirtySox
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Some excerpts from guys we talk about.

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Charlie Condon
3B, OF
Scouting Report
Bats: R, Throws: R
Condon made a small adjustment to his hand position from last summer and has exploded this spring, hitting .568/.636/1.273 through the third weekend of the season. He's also playing at least a capable enough third base to separate himself from the first base-only types in the class, although he’s most likely to end up a plus defender in right or left. He had three homers in four swings against Michigan State last week, going dead center off the batter’s eye, then left, then opposite field to right. He’s got extremely strong hands, bat speed, and good feel for the zone. If he keeps this up against SEC pitching, including better velocity, he’ll end up the top guy in this jumbled class.

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Jac Caglianone
1B, LHP
Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: L
Caglianone is a two-way player, but his pro future is with the stick, as it’s 80 raw power in a good enough athlete to at least become a solid defender at first. He’s been more power than hit in his college career, with more than three times as many strikeouts as walks last year, although that is likely to improve somewhat when he’s only focusing on one thing rather than trying to hit and pitch. As a pitcher, he throws hard, sitting 94-95 mph this year, mostly going fastballs with the occasional hard slider, but he comes across his body and already had Tommy John surgery once in high school. He also missed the first weekend due to an undisclosed injury, and while he was healthy last year, he walked 55 in 74 2/3 innings. Just stick a bat in his hands and let him go.

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Hagen Smith
LHP
Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: L
Smith’s game against Oregon State in Week 2, when he had 17 strikeouts in six innings, had scouts saying it was the most dominant pitching performance they’d ever seen from an amateur pitcher. He’s picked up velocity in each of the last two years, now sitting 95-97 mph and touching 100, with a wipeout slider at 85-88 that has a ton of horizontal break. I don’t love the mechanics and he already had Tommy John surgery as a 16-year-old, but this is some peak David Price stuff going on here. He made Oregon State’s lineup look like Pencil State.

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Braden Montgomery
OF, RHP
Scouting Report
Bats: B, Throws: R
Montgomery transferred from Stanford to College Station this year and is off to a big start for the Aggies, showing off his bat speed and plus raw power along with one of the best outfield arms in the class. He’s been a two-way player before but he’s nowhere near the same kind of prospect on the mound, where he has arm strength but neither command nor feel. He hit very well in the Cape Cod League but has shown some propensity to swing and miss, with a real vulnerability to changeups. He’s riskier than the hitters above him but has more upside than the bats after Condon and Caglianone.

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Brody Brecht
RHP
Scouting Report
Bats: R, Throws: R
Brecht is up to 100 mph with a plus slider, and he’s built like a big wide receiver, which is funny because he was, until this year, also a big wide receiver — he gave up football a year ago to focus on baseball. He’s very athletic and he doesn’t have huge effort in his delivery despite the velocity. He’s also far less advanced as a pitcher than the guys ahead of him, both in terms of the arsenal and in his feel for pitching, so it’s like taking a high school arm in a college pitcher’s body.

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Konnor Griffin
OF
Scouting Report
Bats: R, Throws: R
Griffin would have been an easy top-10 pick a generation ago, when teams were chasing raw tools above everything else. He’s a big-bodied athlete who’s a plus runner with plus raw power and has a plus arm to handle any position in the outfield. His swing gets long thanks to a first move back further behind his body, although once he gets the bat going it’s a traditional swing that should produce a lot of line drives. The history of Mississippi high school hitters will work against him — Austin Riley is now the career WAR leader for any player drafted and signed out of a high school there — but he probably offers the most upside of the first-round high school bats.

 

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Posted (edited)

Some other musings of mine after reading through Law's list.

Surprised he called Condon a likely plus defender in a corner.

I should probably pay attention to Trey Yesavage.

Of the prep guys, Bonemer/Caldwell/Morlando ranked ahead of Griffin at 11, 12, and 14 respectively.

Harold probably hates Caldwell. He's 5 foot 5. Law says it's going to take a GM or Scouting Director with job security to pick him.

Edited by DirtySox
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10 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Top 10 for Law:

Where did he have Bryce Rainer?  Sounds like we need to start talking more about him.  He's made some adjustments at the plate that are making guys believe in his hit tool along with his excellent projection, athleticism and power. He just might be a Dude.

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26 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Where did he have Bryce Rainer?  Sounds like we need to start talking more about him.  He's made some adjustments at the plate that are making guys believe in his hit tool along with his excellent projection, athleticism and power. He just might be a Dude.

20th.

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Bryce Rainer
SS
Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: R
Rainer could be a top-15 pick if a team thinks he’s going to hit, as he’s shown enough on defense to project to stay at short and potentially end up a plus defender there and he has raw power. He has bat speed but he’s frequently off-balance through contact, leading to more swing and miss in showcases than other potential first-rounders as well as inconsistent contact quality. There’s some comparison to Brice Turang, another left-handed-hitting shortstop from a California high school, with Turang going 21st overall in 2018.

 

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Posted (edited)

In BA's top 10 bold predictions article today for the 2024 Baseball Season.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-bold-predictions-for-the-2024-mlb-milb-seasons/

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Charlie Condon Is the Consensus No.1 Pick And A Top 5 Prospect

As of March 5, Charlie Condon is averaging over 100 MPH on his exit velocities. More importantly, he’s exhibiting elite zone contact and elite plate discipline, all in an athletic 6-foot-6 frame. Players like Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, James Wood and Spencer Jones are proving to the baseball world that you can excel as a tall athlete. Chase rates, exit velocities and contact rates are very good predictors, even in small sample sizes, which strongly suggest that Condon has made a leap going into his draft year.

Defensive fit was Condon’s big question mark entering the season. The early signs on defense are very positive, as he might be able to hold down third base. If he continues to hit the way he has early on, he’ll be on a Wyatt Langford trajectory and this prediction won’t feel quite so bold.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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Posted (edited)

From today's BA College Hot Sheet.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/chase-burns-jac-caglianone-highlight-ncaa-week-4-standouts-hot-sheet/

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Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Class: 2024

What He Did: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 K

Burns turned in his best start of the season in a highly-scouted matchup against Duke on Saturday. He struck out a season-best 14 batters in just six innings while showcasing a pair of 70-grade pitches with his 98 mph fastball and upper-80s slider. The slider was his primary swing-and-miss offering in this look and was used to finish 10 of his 14 strikeouts, though the fastball was a consistent weapon and miss pitch at the top of the zone. He’s making a case to be the first pitcher selected in the draft. More to come from this Burns outing and this Wake-Duke series later this week. -CC 

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Jac Caglianone, LHP/1B, Florida
Class: 2024

What He Did: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 9 K

The two-way sensation on Sunday extended his scoreless innings streak to 12 with six shutout hitless innings against Saint Mary’s. Caglianone’s trademark fastball sat in the 94-97 range and flashed run and ride through the zone. His control of the offering was a little scattered, but he was still able to generate eight swings and misses while not having the best feel for the pitch. Caglianone’s changeup is plus, and on top of getting great separation off his heater will flash late tumbling life. He showed advanced feel for his mid-80s cutter-slider hybrid and manipulated its shape well. Interestingly enough, it was shorter and tighter against lefthanded hitters while flashing a longer, sweepier look against righthanded hitters. It was plenty effective against both, and garnered seven swings and misses.

On the day, Caglianone generated an impressive 21 swings and misses which was good for an overall miss rate of 48%. In an effort to improve his command and control, Caglianone this offseason made a handful of mechanical adjustments that early on have paid off. He tightened up his delivery, shortened his arm stroke and slightly lowered his release height. Through 15 innings starts, the 6-foot-5 Adonis has pitched his way to a 1.80 ERA with 27 strikeouts and eight walks. -PF

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Luke Holman, RHP, LSU
Class: 2024

What He Did: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K

We’re still waiting for Holman to allow a run this season. He’s started four games and thrown 24 innings and yet to allow a single one—earned or unearned. That’s quite literally all you can ask of a pitcher. He’s also done this while posting a 47.1% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. In his most recent game against Xavier he sat in the low 90s and generated 13 whiffs with his slider. –CC

 

Edited by DirtySox
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