Cease To Padres per Passan

[Rolle Tide]

8 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Which illustrates a fundamental difference as we argue over the value of some of these prospects.

We’re scarred by poor development and failed prospects, while O’s fans are wearing rose colored glasses with their Adley and Gunnar jerseys.

I get the thinking on both sides.

LOL … okay 

[ptatc]

21 minutes ago, fathom said:

Has anyone even watched highlights of Ortiz?  I couldn’t be more out on him, as he gives me terrifying Madrigal flashbacks.

 

Very much so. Which is a useful player but not a top tier piece in a trade for a dependable starting pitcher. 

[Chicago White Sox]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, that does support the view that Ortiz > Schultz, though there’s not a big difference between 50 and 61:   It’s kind of an apples and oranges comparison anyway and if WS fans would rather have Schultz than Ortiz I’m not going to argue with them, given the needs of the franchise.  The statement a few pages back that all 30 GMs would take Schultz over Ortiz is highly debatable though.  

A site I like, justbaseball.com, has Ortiz 45 and Schultz 49 (Montgomery is 14 BTW).   https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/mlb-top-100-prospects-2023/  That’s a postseason list.  

When the new lists are published (like we saw in BA’s), you will see Schultz straddling a 55/60 FV ranking and Ortiz will remain at a 50 FV.  There is nothing biased about this at all, but rather you guys are referencing outdated rankings.  The talent levels of these prospects have drifted apart and one has a ton of helium whereas the other one has likely reached their prospect status apex.  Would every single GM take Schultz over Ortiz…maybe that’s a slight stretch to say since one is a pitcher, but I think the vast majority of GMs certainly would.  Schultz is a premium prospect whereas Ortiz is simply a very good one.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

It’s an outdated list. When they update it Schultz will be higher

You are referring to the mlb.com list, I assume?   Well, it was published August 5.   Schultz pitched 7 innings after that. I don’t know how recently the mlb.com guys had checked in on Schultz before that list came out.  Yes I’d guess he’s more likely to move up than down.   I think most of these sites that rate prospects do a significant reevaluation over the winter, which is why most of those lists come out in February and not September and October.   So, we’ll see.  

I don’t know much about Schultz, is there a reason the WS limited him to 27 innings last year?
 

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You don’t read this and think that the thing they’re salivating about is getting their own Gerrit Cole to the Astros deal, getting a starter they can unlock without paying a big prospect price?

In this market, you likely have to pay up for the bulk of the projection since there aren’t a lot of other options with that kind of ceiling.  Yamamoto has never pitched in the majors and just got the largest contract ever for a pitcher simply because he could be a legit ace.  Cease has at least done it once before and has a super high floor.  If you are the Yankees, it’s either make massive commitments to Snell or Montgomery or overpay in prospects for Cease or another controllable starter that doesn’t appear to be readily available.

[Rolle Tide]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Basallo barely had a cup of coffee in AA so he’s clearly riskier than the much more seasoned Ortiz. With that in mind, how about we make him the second piece in the Orioles trade package instead of Ortiz?

Sprinkle honey potion in Elias ears I guess. That’s just it …We can quibble here over trade pieces like the White Sox just made Mayo, Kjerstad, and McDermott that I can pretty much guarantee isn’t happening. 
 

Heres the thing ….Elias is obviously looking to move our MLB veterans, blocked prospects….guys on the 40 man 1st. He has to be…..So the first set of prospects would be Norby , Stowers, Ortiz  as the shelf life is a problem. What we’ve learned as Orioles fans is Elias and Medal overvalue prospects. That’s why they laid a mammoth egg at the deadline. Fujinama was so inconsistent you had to strap yourself to the seat to watch him pitch and Flaherty had 1 watchable start.  There are many guys he could’ve done better with including Cease. But, Texas was so hot that it probably doesn’t affect the outcome. I’m sure you guys can agree that his asking price is borderline absurd. I believe that he’d already be traded somewhere if that wasn’t the case.

[Snopek]

4 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

LOL … okay 

Wait, are you actually saying that your recent track record of success with prospects doesn’t make you more optimistic about others in your system than fans of other teams would be?

I literally don’t know what you’re LOL’ing about here. I’d feel the same if I were an O’s fan.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Mets seems far worse than the other two

I’d agree, but also the most realistic I think.  Who would you prefer in a Mets deal out of curiosity?

[Rolle Tide]

47 minutes ago, SkokieSox said:

Thank goodness we have your objective evaluations 😄

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

There great until their take doesn’t match your position….got it . Don’t care about websites or podcasts. Anyone with a little money, computer knowledge, and time can have either/both. And they aren’t outdated until a new one is published. If they publish a new one before games are played I’d are you that the current one is more accurate. If no baseball is being played why would they need to update it ….. except for internet clicks ….and people wouldn’t be happy if the updated list is a dupe. 
 

that said Ortiz only loses value if he is in the minors come April or not given a chance to prove himself. The value of his prospect status likely can only go down. 

So you don’t care what Tony at OH has to say about your prospects?  Seems like  I have seen you reference his write-ups quite a bit.

[poppysox]

44 minutes ago, Snopek said:

You can’t possibly think that’s how any of us feel, right? No one hates the Sox more than Sox fans.

Amen!

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

When the new lists are published (like we saw in BA’s), you will see Schultz straddling a 55/60 FV ranking and Ortiz will remain at a 50 FV.  There is nothing biased about this at all, but rather you guys are referencing outdated rankings.  The talent levels of these prospects have drifted apart and one has a ton of helium whereas the other one has likely reached their prospect status apex.  Would every single GM take Schultz over Ortiz…maybe that’s a slight stretch to say since one is a pitcher, but I think the vast majority of GMs certainly would.  Schultz is a premium prospect whereas Ortiz is simply a very good one.

I have not accused anyone on this site of being biased.  But I did just give you a credible (IMO) postseason list that had Ortiz over Schultz.  I fully recognize that other lists, and maybe the majority of them, will put Schultz higher.  

Anyway, as you are well aware, I’ve never proposed Ortiz as the headline piece for Cease, only the second piece, with Norby as an alternative choice.  I’ve asked for explanations of why fans don’t want Ortiz, and have given some details of why I think he’d help the Sox.  But if the Sox don’t think Ortiz fits their plan, fine.   I’ve certainly done and said nothing to try to “shove Ortiz down your throats.”   
 

[Rolle Tide]

4 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Wait, are you actually saying that your recent track record of success with prospects doesn’t make you more optimistic about others in your system than fans of other teams would be?

I literally don’t know what you’re LOL’ing about here. I’d feel the same if I were an O’s fan.

I’m high on oif guys but have been an Orioles fan a long time. I’ve watched us draft a slew of potential TOR guys in the high 1st round only to watch most/ many not make the majors and the ones that did Bundy, Loewen, end up falling far short of being a ACE. I love that we’re loaded, love reading the system rankings, that the Orioles are #4 for MILB pitching on statcast. But none of that means diddly to me until that actually do it. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Sprinkle honey potion in Elias ears I guess. That’s just it …We can quibble here over trade pieces like the White Sox just made Mayo, Kjerstad, and McDermott that I can pretty much guarantee isn’t happening. 
 

Heres the thing ….Elias is obviously looking to move our MLB veterans, blocked prospects….guys on the 40 man 1st. He has to be…..So the first set of prospects would be Norby , Stowers, Ortiz  as the shelf life is a problem. What we’ve learned as Orioles fans is Elias and Medal overvalue prospects. That’s why they laid a mammoth egg at the deadline. Fujinama was so inconsistent you had to strap yourself to the seat to watch him pitch and Flaherty had 1 watchable start.  There are many guys he could’ve done better with including Cease. But, Texas was so hot that it probably doesn’t affect the outcome. I’m sure you guys can agree that his asking price is borderline absurd. I believe that he’d already be traded somewhere if that wasn’t the case.

Counting on Fujinama…good luck with that.

You can try another 5-7 guys like that and you might get one that sticks…like Cortes with the Yankees, for example.

The problem is how much can you really count on that guy in the postseason?

How likely are they to repeat after one breakthough season…following up is always the toughest part.  See Bradish, Kyle.  Everyone in baseball expects big things of Rodriguez eventually, but it’s the second and third options on a staff that are often the differentiators between good and great seasons, since all you hope for from your 4/5 guys is innings/bullpen coverage and a .500ish record in those games.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are referring to the mlb.com list, I assume?   Well, it was published August 5.   Schultz pitched 7 innings after that. I don’t know how recently the mlb.com guys had checked in on Schultz before that list came out.  Yes I’d guess he’s more likely to move up than down.   I think most of these sites that rate prospects do a significant reevaluation over the winter, which is why most of those lists come out in February and not September and October.   So, we’ll see.  

I don’t know much about Schultz, is there a reason the WS limited him to 27 innings last year?
 

They rarely do major updates to it in season. Is expect a knowledgeable poster to know that

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d agree, but also the most realistic I think.  Who would you prefer in a Mets deal out of curiosity?

I’d love to see if you could get Jett and Baty. That would be my initial ask

Edited January 6 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Rolle Tide]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you don’t care what Tony at OH has to say about your prospects?  Seems like  I have seen you reference his write-ups quite a bit.

I respect Tony as the owner of the site. I’ve been a paying member for 20 plus years. I read his stuff on our prospects and rankings. I appreciate his effort and contributions. I believe some, believe some are biased, and disagree with some. Since you post at our site I know that you know the popular guys vs regular posters. Frobby is held in high regard there, and Sports Guy (you either love or hate him) and I see eye to eye on very little. You think he’s been obstinate here, he’s even worse there. He even speaks his mind to Tony. I have my opinions over there about the Os and Ravens. The latter is a constant struggle as I’m not the biggest Lamar Jackson fan.

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Sprinkle honey potion in Elias ears I guess. That’s just it …We can quibble here over trade pieces like the White Sox just made Mayo, Kjerstad, and McDermott that I can pretty much guarantee isn’t happening. 
 

Heres the thing ….Elias is obviously looking to move our MLB veterans, blocked prospects….guys on the 40 man 1st. He has to be…..So the first set of prospects would be Norby , Stowers, Ortiz  as the shelf life is a problem. What we’ve learned as Orioles fans is Elias and Medal overvalue prospects. That’s why they laid a mammoth egg at the deadline. Fujinama was so inconsistent you had to strap yourself to the seat to watch him pitch and Flaherty had 1 watchable start.  There are many guys he could’ve done better with including Cease. But, Texas was so hot that it probably doesn’t affect the outcome. I’m sure you guys can agree that his asking price is borderline absurd. I believe that he’d already be traded somewhere if that wasn’t the case.

This goes back to the negotiating discussion. He should start out absurd and then work his way down. Just like the opposing GM should start with a low ball offer and work his way up. 

The entire goal for Getz is to get as much as possible and the entire goal for the opposing GM is to give up as little as possible. 

I don't know why most of the Baltimore fans think the beginning or middle of negotiations is a static offer. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Updated packages I would be willing to accept:

• NYY: Domínguez (OF), Hampton (RHP), Lombard (SS)
• NYM: Williams (SS), Clifford (OF), Tidwell (RHP)
• BAL: Mayo (3B/OF), Kjerstad (OF), McDermott (RHP) 

Well, your position has moved quite a bit over the last few weeks based on your perception of a “hot market.”   But I’m not sure, when the currency is prospects rather than cash, that the market really changes much, if at all.  You are still weighing your evaluation of the players on each side of trade, the service time they have remaining, and the risks involved.  

I personally would never trade Mayo, Kjerstad and McDermott for two years of Cease.  Would Elias?  I doubt it, but I don’t know.  Not do I know if these other teams might bite at your suggestions.   I guess we’ll see.  
 

[Rolle Tide]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Counting on Fujinama…good luck with that.

You can try another 5-7 guys like that and you might get one that sticks…like Cortes with the Yankees, for example.

The problem is how much can you really count on that guy in the postseason?

How likely are they to repeat after one breakthough season…following up is always the toughest part.  See Bradish, Kyle.  Everyone in baseball expects big things of Rodriguez eventually, but it’s the second and third options on a staff that are often the differentiators between good and great seasons, since all you hope for from your 4/5 guys is innings/bullpen coverage and a .500ish record in those games.

Fuji is gone … Elias has done well with scrap heap guys, Rule 5, and minor trades. Especially in the pen….Hes added Webb, Fuji, Cano, Coulombe, C Perez, and Felix Bautista for next to nothing. Holt and our organizational development has had good success.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

Clevinger has such a terrible reputation around the industry, Mr. Yale isn’t going to risk adding him to the clubhouse mix unless he has no other feasible alternative.

Look at how much Severino Montas Giolito etc. are going for.

They’re going to have to go well beyond the Gibson price tag.

 

Wore out his welcome in CLE and SD.  Same will happen again in a similar situation under high pressure.  He needs to pitch in relative obscurity imo.  He’s certainly not the guy you can count on in the clubhouse to hold everyone together as one unified front pulling in the same direction.

And he’s had two major elbow injuries so his health is basically a ticking time bomb…his mechanics have always been spotty/erratic.

[ptatc]

11 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

Cease is not the only option but he is the best cost controlled option. If you want to settle for clevinger and his price tag or pay nearly as much for a single year of the others that's your perogative but you will need to go through the same process next year and give up more prospects because the Orioles are not signing long term FA just like the Sox. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

Soxtalk - For the record, Role Tide has it made it very clear to me over at the Hangout that he hates advanced metrics (FIP specifically), he hates everything about Fangraphs (f*** those nerds), doesn’t believe that defense or ballpark factors matter (just a bunch of excuses), and that ERA is the end all be all when evaluating pitchers because at some point “only results matter”.  He will never appreciate the value of Cease because he is a dinosaur that’s determined to be willfully ignorant and avoid potential data points when forming his opinions.

I know people have been beating up on @Sports Guy and to a lesser extent @Frobby, but both have acknowledged that Cease would not come cheap and they have both expressed a willingness to trade a 55 FV prospect (Kjerstad or Cowser) plus a 50 FV prospect (Ortiz) for Cease.  We may not feel it’s enough or like the specific players, but it’s not a ridiculous proposal.  It’s actually only Role Tide who feels their top 5 prospects should be off limits and that an Ortiz & garbage package should be enough to get Cease.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you don’t care what Tony at OH has to say about your prospects?  Seems like  I have seen you reference his write-ups quite a bit.

I do care what Tony has to say.  There are some other Orioles-related sites that rank their prospects where I really don’t care much what they say, because they’re too biased towards the O’s prospects.  Tony has a pretty good track record of being somewhat objective.  Nobody gets these things right every time anyway.  

[Rolle Tide]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This goes back to the negotiating discussion. He should start out absurd and then work his way down. Just like the opposing GM should start with a low ball offer and work his way up. 

The entire goal for Getz is to get as much as possible and the entire goal for the opposing GM is to give up as little as possible. 

I don't know why most of the Baltimore fans think the beginning or middle of negotiations is a static offer. 

Agreed …he needs to get every last penny of value. But, he’s had him available since the deadline.  At some point he has to get to reality based on what he’s being offered. I have no idea what that is and what he will be dealt for. But, and I said this already, The Orioles held onto Machado too long and the return really suffered because of that. I suspect a lot had to do with the owner meddling. But still …. They could’ve cashed in 2+ years out when they knew they weren’t going to sign him. I believe that was decided when they wasted all that money on Davis and Trumbo.