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Draft Kings sets Sox O/U at 49.5 wins


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11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was literally the worst defensive OF in baseball and by wide margin.  I put this table together at some point during the of 2022, but he was leagues worse the next worst guy (who happened to be Gavin Sheets).

I know your comment was in just, but I do think it’s important just negative his OF glove and how insane it was that Hahn kept putting him out there.

 2022 YTD DRS.PNG

Now we get to look forward to Austin Slater out there. I didn’t realize he was so bad defensively. 

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7 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Now we get to look forward to Austin Slater out there. I didn’t realize he was so bad defensively. 

He played a lot of CF in 2022.  He’s been a positive defender in the corners based on DRS, UZR/150, & OAA.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He played a lot of CF in 2022.  He’s been a positive defender in the corners based on DRS, UZR/150, & OAA.

I wish Getz would have waited to see what Hays’ market looks like.  If he ends up signing for $5 million or so, that will be disappointing.

Forget the Slater/Tauchman platoon for $3.7 million.  Hays as a full-time starter for a bit more money could have been a nice flip candidate with a good first half.  Slater/Tauchman more than likely won’t net any return at the deadline.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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5 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I wish Getz would have waited to see what Hays’ market looks like.  If he ends up signing for $5 million or so, that will be disappointing.

Forget the Slater/Tauchman platoon for $3.7 million.  Hays as a full-time starter for a bit more money could have been a nice flip candidate with a good first half.  Slater/Tauchman more than likely won’t net any return at the deadline.

They probably won’t get much for either of them.  Got to wait and see why Hayes gets and what the word is on his medicals.  A bit surprised he can’t do better in this market if fully healthy.

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  • 8 months later...
On 12/22/2024 at 7:38 PM, SoxBlanco said:

Alright, I pulled the trigger. 

IMG_4911.jpeg

The time has come to bump this thread. I am officially one win away. I know some people thought I was flushing money down the drain, but it feels good to have 25 chances to get that last win.

If I do win, it’ll probably buy me two or three beers at the next game I attend. Maybe even a hot dog. 

P.S. This was a fun thread to read through, eight months later. 

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2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

The time has come to bump this thread. I am officially one win away. I know some people thought I was flushing money down the drain, but it feels good to have 25 chances to get that last win.

If I do win, it’ll probably buy me two or three beers at the next game I attend. Maybe even a hot dog. 

P.S. This was a fun thread to read through, eight months later. 

It was like you passed GO and got your $200 !

Now you have to be like JR and avoid LUXURY TAX.

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On 12/27/2024 at 11:10 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

Steamer projects our positional group to put up 14.3 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 23rd overall last year, so still in the bottom 25% of teams. However, it does reflect a 20.6 win improvement over the -6.3 fWAR we got out of our positional group last year.  I keep seeing people saying that this roster is worse than last year, but I really doubt that is the case.  Last year’s group was the 10th least productive in baseball history per Fangraphs.  Like just getting replacement production at C, 3B, & RF is worth nearly seven wins alone.  And beyond that, there are plenty of rebound candidates, Robert being the biggest and most likely one even if he suffers through some injuries.

The pitching staff is definitely worse on paper and is only projected for 5.7 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 29th in all of baseball last year and reflects a 4.1 win decrease from this past season for us.  When combined with the positional group, that’s a 16.5 fWAR improvement YoY despite the loss of Crochet and Fedde and no meaningful external additions.  I personally think the positional group projections are too optimistic, but again, just replacing the guys who had no business being on a major league roster with slightly above replacement level talent wil make a huge difference.

Gun to my head right now, I think this team wins 55+ games next year.  Losing Robert would change that for me, but I think a 49.5 O/U is an absolutely absurd line and everyone should be pumping the over because it’s really fucking hard to win less than 50 games in a season.

Genius/ logic, objectivity wins. 

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On 12/20/2024 at 8:49 AM, T R U said:

Oh they definitely didn't go into the season trying to lose that's for sure.

I was one of those people who saw all the "This team is going to be historically bad" posts last offseason and thought there was too much talent on the roster for that to happen. Im not going to make that same mistake again this year, these guys will need a horseshoe up their ass to get 50 wins.

Too much faith in 2024 , not enough in 2025. Wait till next year !!

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On 12/22/2024 at 7:37 AM, ptatc said:

They aren't new titles. They are new positions and a new organizational structure to bring the team at least into this century. 

I understand why people don't want to believe that it will work. What I don't understand is why people automatically default to it's the white sox so it won't work.

Anecdotal evidence is information based on personal accounts or isolated experiences, rather than systematic and reliable data. While it can be compelling and relatable, it is considered a weak form of evidence, especially in a scientific context, because individual experiences are not necessarily representative of broader patterns and can be influenced by cognitive biases. Anecdotes are not proof but can sometimes be useful for generating ideas or illustrating concepts.

Yet despite all the huffing and puffing about it's the Sox so expect bad,  the guy leading his men up that hill died on it because he didn't even put any real conviction into his own words. Didn't even trust his own opinion because he fully admitted he was on the fence about betting either the over or the under.

You'd think that if most of your posts in this thread say "been there done that many times before" surely you must believe your own words otherwise what's the point of wallowing in the s%*#.  It's pretty easy to take one side or the other on an over/under line especially when you're not betting it you're just taking your data points or your anecdotal evidence and picking a side. Fear of being wrong I suppose.

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55 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Imagine posting multiple times and busting a nut that your favorite baseball team is actually going to win 50+ games in a 162 game season.  🤣

Jerry has truly won.  Owner of the year!

lowered.jpg

That was the point of this thread to pick a side on whether you thought things were improving enough to pick the over. Now of course you're going to cry about it being a weird flex . LOL you never quit. It's not the result it's the reasoning behind it, but some people don't understand that apparently. Every time anyone shows a little joy or happiness you're here to squash it.

Lowered expectations from your point of view or unrealistic expectations  that cannot possibly be met after losing 121 games without any money put into the team and JR intent on leaving as much money to his heirs as possible. The thing is you never quite say what you expect to happen only that everyone else who sees progress isn't unhappy enough. At least we have realistic goals based on an objective view of what is going on with Reinsdorf and the Ishbias.

 

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offense/pitching fWAR by team

Det 20.3 + 13.8=34.1  +4 def

Min 12.5 + 13.7=26.2   -12.5 def

KCR 11.5 + 15.6=27.1  +10.7 def

CLE 8.9 + 11.4=20.3   +20.7 def

Sox 5 + 10=15   -28.1 def  (3 worse)

 

Plus, they're (likely) going to be subtracting Luis Robert and Taylor on the defensive side.

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6 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Imagine posting multiple times and busting a nut that your favorite baseball team is actually going to win 50+ games in a 162 game season.  🤣

Jerry has truly won.  Owner of the year!

lowered.jpg

Imagine making it your life's work to shame those who do. Not sure what your point is. 

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6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Too much faith in 2024 , not enough in 2025. Wait till next year !!

I was roundly mocked for suggesting that the three main offensive starters going down to injury within the first 8 games of 2024 was a contributing factor to the horrible start (and the horrible middle and the horrible end). Vaughn should have been non-tendered just for his complete drop-off in the first few months of 2024. 

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5 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That was the point of this thread to pick a side on whether you thought things were improving enough to pick the over. Now of course you're going to cry about it being a weird flex . LOL you never quit. It's not the result it's the reasoning behind it, but some people don't understand that apparently. Every time anyone shows a little joy or happiness you're here to squash it.

Lowered expectations from your point of view or unrealistic expectations  that cannot possibly be met after losing 121 games without any money put into the team and JR intent on leaving as much money to his heirs as possible. The thing is you never quite say what you expect to happen only that everyone else who sees progress isn't unhappy enough. At least we have realistic goals based on an objective view of what is going on with Reinsdorf and the Ishbias.

 

It's like having a child and deciding to be pissed off for 25 years until that child has a job and can support itself. I mean, why lower your expectations to be happy over a "first step" and "first word"? Get back to me when you publish your first master's thesis, which is still a lowered expectation. 

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43 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I was roundly mocked for suggesting that the three main offensive starters going down to injury within the first 8 games of 2024 was a contributing factor to the horrible start (and the horrible middle and the horrible end). Vaughn should have been non-tendered just for his complete drop-off in the first few months of 2024. 

Because you expected them to be healthy despite all evidence to the contrary...

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4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Because you expected them to be healthy despite all evidence to the contrary...

Uh...no. Because a bunch of grumps would argue that they're made of solid wood just to troll somebody who isn't as grumpy as them. It was stupid then, it's stupid now. 

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1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

Uh...no. Because a bunch of grumps would argue that they're made of solid wood just to troll somebody who isn't as grumpy as them. It was stupid then, it's stupid now. 

Stupid to look at the track record of Jimenez Moncada and Robert and what exactly SHOULD they have predicted if they weren't so "grumpy" lol?

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