On 3/28/2026 at 4:28 PM, Autumn Dreamin said:

Didn’t he get hurt badly?

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Didn’t he get hurt badly?

Was in an air cast…

5 hours ago, fathom said:

Didn’t he get hurt badly?

Josh Nelson posted the video of his ankle facing the opposite direction, although I'm not sure if it's still up or not.

James mentioned it will almost certainly be a high schooler in the second round, but I wonder if Bailey’s injury could make him an overslot second rounder. Not sure if they want to go that route with a 1B, though. Just a thought.

A lot of players mentioned here, but this is the main course for Sox fans.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7160881/2026/04/01/mlb-draft-scouting-kaden-waechter-jared-grindlinger/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=17447086&userId=6062851

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/white-sox-prospects-team-assignments-to-start-2026-season?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

👀

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

👀

Chatgpt, pick me the most White Sox first round draft pick possible:

Also, here's an interesting write up on him. Seems like he might be flying up the boards.

https://archive.is/20260402130751/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/02/sports/brody-bumila-massachusetts-pitcher/

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Chatgpt, pick me the most White Sox first round draft pick possible:

Reminds me of SI April Fool's Day story about imaginary legend Syd Finch decades ago. George Plimpton wrote it, if I remember correctly.

12 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

A lot of players mentioned here, but this is the main course for Sox fans.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7160881/2026/04/01/mlb-draft-scouting-kaden-waechter-jared-grindlinger/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=17447086&userId=6062851

.750 OBP game. I'm alarmed, why doesn't he hit a dinger every at bat

Roch Cholowsky will be the first Sox $100 million contract if Isbia has any say in it at all....

BA has a draft piece today on where we stand 99 days out from draft. Will include the portion on the top tier players and rumblings from the industry on them.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-draft-intel-first-round-rumblings-99-days-out/

We’re roughly at the midpoint of the college season (Jacob Rudner dropped our midseason award watch lists earlier this week) and players are finally starting to defrost and get into games in the Northern states of the country. Earlier this week, MLB announced the 2026 bonus pools and slot values.

While three months can feel like a long time, the draft will be here before we know it.

Below is a rundown of how I’m currently viewing the state of the first round, based on conversations with scouts throughout the industry and player performances so far.

Roch Solid At 1-1

The one constant in this year’s draft class remains UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky.

At no point this spring have I heard even a consideration that he’s not the clear-cut No. 1 player. He’s following up on his 2025 Player of the Year campaign admirably, with numbers that are a near mirror image from what he did last spring:

Year GP AVG OBP SLG OPS HR 2B K% BB%

2025 66 0.353 0.480 0.710 1.190 23 19 9.3% 13.9%

2026 28 0.346 0.489 0.712 1.201 10 8 11.3% 13.5%

He’s continued to get the ball in the air with more frequency this spring, and he’s also chasing a bit less. His 27% chase rate from 2025 was one of the few quibbles you could have had with Cholowsky entering the season. His chase rate through 28 games this spring is 23%. A modest improvement, perhaps, but still heading in the right direction.

All of his under-the-hood data looks as impressive today as it did a year ago. Here’s his final 2025 data compared to 2026 data of games through late March:

Year AVG EV 90th EV Max EV Contact% zContact%

2025 91.5 106.5 112.1 81.7% 89.0%

2026 91.4 107.8 111.3 82.7% 87.5%

Nothing about his defensive profile has changed either. Put simply, Cholowsky has been exactly as advertised so far this season. He remains the overwhelming favorite to be the no-brainer first overall pick by the White Sox.

The Favorites For No. 2

So, who’s next?

There appears to be a group of consistent names who get discussed after Cholowsky and solidly in the mix to be the pick for the Rays at No. 2.

Unsurprisingly, many of these are the names you’d expect based on our most recent draft update, but the list seems to include the following players, which I’ll bucket into two different tiers:

Tier One

Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS, North Richland Hills, Texas

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama

Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech

These four players are most commonly mentioned after Cholowsky in my conversations. However, one player in that group could have significantly more volatility than the rest, and might be trending out of this tier entirely.

Lebron was one of the hottest players in college baseball in the first few weeks of the 2025 season, and likewise got off to a great start in 2026. Conference play put the brakes on his performance a year ago. His first nine games against SEC teams this season have also been a challenge. Below is a look at his performance overall and then split into conference and non-conference games:

GP AVG OBP SLG OPS K% BB% Swing% Miss% FB Velo

Overall 30 0.265 0.408 0.602 1.010 17.6% 13.4% 44% 27% 89.6

Non-Conference 21 0.295 0.451 0.654 1.105 18.6% 16.7% 41% 28% 88.6

Conference 9 0.200 0.282 0.486 0.768 15.4% 2.6% 51% 25% 91.6

Handling conference pitching and showing an improved contact rate against breaking balls were two of Lebron’s biggest checkpoints this spring. He is as aware of that as anyone. The shift in his approach in conference games makes me think he’s pressing a bit more than he was at the start of the year. His swing rate has jumped significantly and his walk rate has fallen off a cliff.

It’s just nine games, but Lebron’s conference performance this spring is as important as any player’s in this class. If he continues to struggle like he did a year ago, it would be easy to see him sliding out of this tier and behind some of the names in this next tier.

Edited Friday at 04:29 PM1 day by DirtySox

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

BA has a draft piece today on where we stand 99 days out from draft. Will include the portion on the top tier players and rumblings from the industry on them.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-draft-intel-first-round-rumblings-99-days-out/

The more consensus Roch is the more scared I am the Sox will pull some batshit last second audible and take someone else.

I know Getz hot-mic'd Roch's name. But still.

1 hour ago, Quin said:

The more consensus Roch is the more scared I am the Sox will pull some batshit last second audible and take someone else.

I know Getz hot-mic'd Roch's name. But still.

I have the opposite. I worry they like the idea of Roch (high achieving, older, quic mover) even if someone younger might emerge like Emerson.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have the opposite. I worry they like the idea of Roch (high achieving, older, quic mover) even if someone younger might emerge like Emerson.

Yep, Sox tend to draft college guys who have already peaked/maxxed out physically.

Thats what differentiates the Witt Jrs and Griffins of the prospect universe...speed/athleticism.

Edited Friday at 09:24 PM1 day by caulfield12

W.Gasparino still maintains a higher BA and OPS nearly 100 points higher than Cholowsky...fwiw

https://uclabruins.com/sports/baseball/stats/2026

Edited yesterday at 11:09 AM1 day by caulfield12

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

W.Gasparino still maintains a higher BA and OPS nearly 100 points higher than Cholowsky...fwiw

https://uclabruins.com/sports/baseball/stats/2026

We should pick him #1 then

21 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We should pick him #1 then

No....but it's not surefire slam dunk easiest decision in twenty years either.

They need a 5.5-7 fWAR superstar.

Griffin/Witt Jr.

farm #16 pipeline/#18 espn /#22 fg

Baseball America should be highest

Edited yesterday at 01:12 PM1 day by caulfield12

19 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have the opposite. I worry they like the idea of Roch (high achieving, older, quic mover) even if someone younger might emerge like Emerson.

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

No....but it's not surefire slam dunk easiest decision in twenty years either.

They need a 5.5-7 fWAR superstar.

Griffin/Witt Jr.

farm #16 pipeline/#18 espn /#22 fg

Baseball America should be highest

I just think it’s prospect fatigue among fans. Cholowsky is basically the same guy as last year. So is Lebron and those struggles might put him outside the top 5. LeBron, Emerson, Lackey and even Lombard have star upside. The floors are all lower though. I think Cholowsky is an easy choice.

The biggest reason for middle of the pack farm system is getting nothing out of international market. They don’t have the luxury of extra draft picks. They need to be great internationally and outspend the division annually. It’s the only way to sustain success.

4 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just think it’s prospect fatigue among fans. Cholowsky is basically the same guy as last year. So is Lebron and those struggles might put him outside the top 5. LeBron, Emerson, Lackey and even Lombard have star upside. The floors are all lower though. I think Cholowsky is an easy choice.

The biggest reason for middle of the pack farm system is getting nothing out of international market. They don’t have the luxury of extra draft picks. They need to be great internationally and outspend the division annually. It’s the only way to sustain success.

Just so sick and tired of picking the guys who will end up helping most immediately.

Starting to come around to the Emerson side of things.

It’s not like 2027 will bring in any FAs.

Emerson probably only one or one and one half years behind Cholowsky anyway. Still fits their 2028-30 timeline realistically.

But I guess the same thing happened that Rodon year…he didn’t pop as much and two other guys jumped him when he was arguably the best long term choice.

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just so sick and tired of picking the guys who will end up helping most immediately.

Starting to come around to the Emerson side of things.

It’s not like 2027 will bring in any FAs.

Emerson probably only one or one and one half years behind Cholowsky anyway. Still fits their 2028-30 timeline realistically.

But I guess the same thing happened that Rodon year…he didn’t pop as much and two other guys jumped him when he was arguably the best long term choice.

They’d take him because he’s the clear top guy. How is he not popping? Hes the exact same player he was last year.

58 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just think it’s prospect fatigue among fans. Cholowsky is basically the same guy as last year. So is Lebron and those struggles might put him outside the top 5. LeBron, Emerson, Lackey and even Lombard have star upside. The floors are all lower though. I think Cholowsky is an easy choice.

The biggest reason for middle of the pack farm system is getting nothing out of international market. They don’t have the luxury of extra draft picks. They need to be great internationally and outspend the division annually. It’s the only way to sustain success.

Completely agree some people have prospect fatigue - not me!

Rock for Roch!

I don't even think prospect fatigue fully covers it. I think some people (within Sox fandom specifically) are trying to talk themselves into it being a tougher choice so that they can reserve the right to be mad later about the team making the "wrong" one.

Roch being an uncontroversial clear consensus 1OA is boring to them, because it simply doesn't provide enough avenues to blame Getz/Shirley/the org for the pick in the future.