White Sox to get Montgomery back to Charlotte (late) next week, still eyeing majors (Janish)

[hi8is]

5 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Elko has averaged around 2 years older than league average throughout his career. Montgomery has averaged around 4 years younger than average. Yet it's time for Colson to "get off the pot?"

I was speaking mostly to Vaughn and our organizational hitting approach… not necessarily regarding Colson.

The book will be out on him until he’s had at least 1,000 MLB at-bats under his belt.

[hi8is]

4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Right!? Sox fans crack me up. I've been as hard on Colson as anyone, but "s%*# or get off the pot" time is at least two years away. Dude just turned 23. And the rest of the fanbase is ready to anointp Tim Elko, who is the same age as AV, the savior of the franchise. 

See my response above. My focus wasn’t Colson.

[hi8is]

4 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Hyperbolic much? No one is calling Elko the savior of anything. Wanting to move away from Vaughn and give Elko a shot when he's tearing up AAA is perfectly fair.

Bingo.

[caulfield12]

56 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The actual people who rank prospects are explaining that they overrated Montgomery a couple of years ago, and are adjusting their scouting reports accordingly. That's not spin. The actual spin is you looking for some imaginary measure of "Saviorhood" to proclaim Montgomery a "failed" pick or development story. If he turns into an average major leaguer, that would still be a win. Only eight #22 picks in the 60 years of the draft have put up 20+ bWAR in their careers. 

I have no idea where you're going with that AJ Preller bit. 

20 fWAR/bWAR as your standard is NOT an average major leaguer BY any stretch.

You can't have it both ways.

Montgomery being a 1-1.5 fWaR player instead of a 3-5 fWAR player doesn't move the needle at all for an organization bereft of high ceiling position prospects and unwilling to pay for them in FA for over a decade (27-30 year old stars rather than 31-34 year old Tier B/C guys).

Nobody will consider that a success by reframing him as a lower first round pick.

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I'm not sure if this is what you're referring to, but Vaughn has only started slowly in 2024 and 2025. He's had productive Aprils in his first 3 seasons. 

It's not a slow start to one year.  It's 4 bad to mediocre years PLUS a bad start to the 5th.

[caulfield12]

Sure WestEddy...your "interpretation" was wrong there, jumping on me for guessing correctly.

But no likes for you.

[WestEddy]

38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's not a slow start to one year.  It's 4 bad to mediocre years PLUS a bad start to the 5th.

I mentioned starts to seasons and that's what you responded to. It's great that you're complaining about something completely different, now. 

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure WestEddy...your "interpretation" was wrong there, jumping on me for guessing correctly.

But no likes for you.

Nope. You just know the game you all play. Get exposed as wrong, then move the goalposts to something else. 

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I mentioned starts to seasons and that's what you responded to. It's great that you're complaining about something completely different, now. 

Nope. You just know the game you all play. Get exposed as wrong, then move the goalposts to something else. 

The point was you were wrong.  It wasn't just a bad start to one season.  That's demonstratably false

[caulfield12]

44 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I mentioned starts to seasons and that's what you responded to. It's great that you're complaining about something completely different, now. 

Nope. You just know the game you all play. Get exposed as wrong, then move the goalposts to something else. 

Reframing Colson Montgomery's development is a perfect example of moving the goalposts.

First almost no #22 draftee puts up 20bWAR/20fWAR.

Then "it would be a major developmental victory if he's just average."

Well, average is pretty much what Baldwin Sosa Vargas and Meidroth project as, currently...if we are being generous.  At least the White Sox definition of average.

Anything above a 2 fWAR is one of the best position players on the team...and 3-5 fWAR an All Star.

So why don't you actually put a number to what Sox fans should realistically expect going forward?  Or at least a range of +/- 1.0 fWAR.

Edited May 4 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Reframing Colson Montgomery's development is a perfect example of moving the goalposts.

First almost no #22 draftee puts up 20bWAR/20fWAR.

Then "it would be a major developmental victory if he's just average."

Well, average is pretty much what Baldwin Sosa Vargas and Meidroth project as, currently...if we are being generous.  At least the White Sox definition of average.

Anything above a 2 fWAR is one of the best position players on the team...and 3-5 fWAR an All Star.

So why don't you actually put a number to what Sox fans should realistically expect going forward?  Or at least a range of +/- 1.0 fWAR.

Maybe consider just letting Colson Montgomery be Colson Montgomery instead of creating all these narratives around him. Some of you guys need a second hobby.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Maybe consider just letting Colson Montgomery be Colson Montgomery instead of creating all these narratives around him. Some of you guys need a second hobby.

It's the intrinsic nature of sports.

Everyone knows that if Colson doesn't make it, that's more money that JR refuses to spend in free agency that will keep pushing the rebuild back to an indefinite point in the future.

Second hobby this time of year is watching the NBA and soon the WNBA...or the Masters.

Actually am on a high speed train travelling at 247 km/hr on home from five day family vacation to Hangzhou. Travel is (practically) everyone's hobby.  Fourth, movies and tv, any requests for Thunderbolts or Black Mirror reviews?  Fifth hobby investing.

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Maybe consider just letting Colson Montgomery be Colson Montgomery instead of creating all these narratives around him. Some of you guys need a second hobby.

Take your own advice.

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Reframing Colson Montgomery's development is a perfect example of moving the goalposts.

First almost no #22 draftee puts up 20bWAR/20fWAR.

Then "it would be a major developmental victory if he's just average."

Well, average is pretty much what Baldwin Sosa Vargas and Meidroth project as, currently...if we are being generous.  At least the White Sox definition of average.

Anything above a 2 fWAR is one of the best position players on the team...and 3-5 fWAR an All Star.

So why don't you actually put a number to what Sox fans should realistically expect going forward?  Or at least a range of +/- 1.0 fWAR.

No, taking a sober look at Montgomery isn't "moving goalposts". The reevaluations of him by ranking services aren't calling out weird developmental changes that have "ruined" him. They're saying they overreacted to his strong first season, and what they're seeing now is the athlete that he probably is. Your own fascination with listicles has no bearing on whether he "fails" or "succeeds". 

How would I know what Sox fans should realistically expect going forward? I'm not a scout. I don't run a prospect ranking service. 

You keep trying to twist Montgomery's development into a weird narrative where everyday he's not raking like a top ten prospect, he's constantly failing, therefore, the organization is constantly failing. Montgomery doesn't need to "move the needle". He's just one prospect. It's silly to pin all the hopes of an organization rebuild on one player. The goal is to amass multiple prospects, because these guys fail at up to a 70% rate. 

A player putting up 2 WAR in a season is an "average major leaguer". If the Sox played service time games, and controlled Montgomery for most of 7 seasons, him putting up 2-3 WAR a year gets him anywhere between 14-21 WAR. 

You're all over the place in your posts. I've tried to answer most of the subject changes you keep throwing out there. 

[WestEddy]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

20 fWAR/bWAR as your standard is NOT an average major leaguer BY any stretch.

You can't have it both ways.

Montgomery being a 1-1.5 fWaR player instead of a 3-5 fWAR player doesn't move the needle at all for an organization bereft of high ceiling position prospects and unwilling to pay for them in FA for over a decade (27-30 year old stars rather than 31-34 year old Tier B/C guys).

Nobody will consider that a success by reframing him as a lower first round pick.

Pretty much all of this is wrong. I'm not "reframing" Montgomery as a lower first round pick. He *is* a lower first round pick. 1-1.5 WAR isn't an average major leaguer. That's slightly below average. 

I'm not sure which "both" ways I'm trying to have ... something. 

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

No, taking a sober look at Montgomery isn't "moving goalposts". The reevaluations of him by ranking services aren't calling out weird developmental changes that have "ruined" him. They're saying they overreacted to his strong first season, and what they're seeing now is the athlete that he probably is. Your own fascination with listicles has no bearing on whether he "fails" or "succeeds". 

How would I know what Sox fans should realistically expect going forward? I'm not a scout. I don't run a prospect ranking service. 

You keep trying to twist Montgomery's development into a weird narrative where everyday he's not raking like a top ten prospect, he's constantly failing, therefore, the organization is constantly failing. Montgomery doesn't need to "move the needle". He's just one prospect. It's silly to pin all the hopes of an organization rebuild on one player. The goal is to amass multiple prospects, because these guys fail at up to a 70% rate. 

A player putting up 2 WAR in a season is an "average major leaguer". If the Sox played service time games, and controlled Montgomery for most of 7 seasons, him putting up 2-3 WAR a year gets him anywhere between 14-21 WAR. 

You're all over the place in your posts. I've tried to answer most of the subject changes you keep throwing out there. 

Colson either fails with his current profile or he's a really good player and breaks through somehow.

There's no in between result.

He's not a good enough fielder to sustain ops numbers in the 500s and 600s...especially at 3B or 1B/DH.

 

Right now, the only hitters who really look like impact players are Braden Teel and maybe Bonemer.

They need twice that with the current system failure rate.

 

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Take your own advice.

Yeah, I post here about 1/50th as much as you. You post on Reddit too. Fuckin hater ass nerd.

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Fuckin hater ass nerd.

huh huh… huh huh… uhhhhhh….. huhh huh…

he said, “ass nerd”

huh huh… huh huh… huh huh…

[MiddleCoastBias]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Colson either fails with his current profile or he's a really good player and breaks through somehow.

There's no in between result.

He's not a good enough fielder to sustain ops numbers in the 500s and 600s...especially at 3B or 1B/DH.

 

Right now, the only hitters who really look like impact players are Braden Teel and maybe Bonemer.

They need twice that with the current system failure rate.

 

With this organization, you get contract extensions for numbers like those.

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Yeah, I post here about 1/50th as much as you. You post on Reddit too. Fuckin hater ass nerd.

Try again.

[WestEddy]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Colson either fails with his current profile or he's a really good player and breaks through somehow.

There's no in between result.

He's not a good enough fielder to sustain ops numbers in the 500s and 600s...especially at 3B or 1B/DH.

 

Right now, the only hitters who really look like impact players are Braden Teel and maybe Bonemer.

They need twice that with the current system failure rate.

 

I'm not sure what any of this is supposed to be about. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

I'm not sure what any of this is supposed to be about. 

He's never going to be an average 1-1.5 fWAR big league player that will be a win in your book.

He either washes out entirely or somehow breaks through and is able to become a 2-3 fWAR player.

See Joe Borchard.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

He's never going to be an average 1-1.5 fWAR big league player that will be a win in your book.

He either washes out entirely or somehow breaks through and is able to become a 2-3 fWAR player.

See Joe Borchard.

Then he's not. Odds are he registers negative WAR, and goes away to coach HS baseball, or something. Dude still has power, fields well, and knows the strike zone. Miguel Vargas isn't killing it at 3B, but his meager output could have him around 3 bWAR at year's end. Sure, he can't thread that .5 WAR career needle you've set, and he either falls above or below that mark. 

My point is that if he's an average major leaguer (2 WAR per season, on average), that's a big win for his draft slot. Go on and worry about whether people who read a listicle 2 years ago will be disappointed if he holds down SS or 3B for 6-7 years. 

[chitownsportsfan]

People should realize a 220/300/400 line as a 3B is now basically a 3 WAR player with solid defense.

[caulfield12]

You're making a pretty BIG assumption that he can hit over .200, though...

You're also assuming Montgomery will be a solid/above average defender at 3B (with a bad back, see Joe Crede post 2008).

 

That would put this theoretical Colson Montgomery among the Top 9 current 3B in MLB.

 

I just multipled by 4X...technically the season is between 1/5th and 1/4th over.

1. Bregman, 7.2

2. Austin Riley, 5.6

3. Maikel Garcia, 5.2 (positive offense and defense, just slightly)

4. Chapman, 4.8

5. Paredes, 4.4, Josh Smith (way too big of an offensive profile for Montgomery)

7. Arenado, 3.6

8. Machado, 3.6  (-0.5 defensively, +5.5 offensively)

 

8.5  Colson Montgomery .220/300/400 (likelihood of a 700 mlb OPS or above average 3B defense converting from SS with a bad back???)

 

9. KeBryan Hayes, 2.4 (-3.8 off, 5.0 defensively, Gold Glove profile, tepid offense)

10. Miguel Vargas, 1.2 (-2.6, 1.2 defensively)

10. Jose Ramirez 1.2 (1.4, -3.4 defensively)

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=3b&qual=100

 

Javier Baez is headed for a 4.0 fWAR, but he's mostly playing OUTFIELD/CF right now...

 

Edited May 6 by caulfield12

[Boopa1219]

I don’t know where else to put this but do you know who else should be headed to Arizona to work with Ryan Fuller for a couple of weeks? Brooks Baldwin.

I think he’s a fun guy, and can be a positive player for the Sox as a super utility guy but the offensive profile right now is dangerously bad.

He only walks 4% of the time, league average is 8.4% so far this year. He hits the ball on the ground nearly 50% of the time at 47.1%. He has a launch angle of 12.3 degrees, which is well below league average of 20 degrees, and well below the desired sweet spot of 30 degrees. His launch angle is also down about 13.4 degrees. He doesn’t see a lot of pitches, he doesn’t take his walks, he hits the ball into the ground way too much. He needs to overhaul his swing