20 minutes ago, almagest said:

There's a BIG difference between saying that a pitcher with better stuff needs less stuff enhancement or guys on the margins will go after any advantage they can get, and saying that the sole reason why a bunch of pitchers got hurt this year is due to Brian Bannister being hired in late 2023.

I literally never said any of that.  I said injuries have spiked since the changes were made, which is 100% true, but we need more time to see why.  It is jumping to conclusions to think that we know who is getting what work done and why when there is no evidence to support it.

44 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

The only thing you seem to be saying is there a lot of injuries now. Everything else you said is talking without saying  anything. You just I don't know what it means. Congrats ! At least you admitted you don't understand what's going on . 

Do you need to drag your grudge into every thread?  We get it, you are mad.  Big grrr. Cool.  No one cares anymore and we don't need to ruin yet another thread for it.  If you want to talk substance, by all means do so.  We just don't need another excuse for lobbing insults.  

No response needed.

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Former 1.03 pick Carlos Rodon wasn’t healthy or good until his final season with the White Sox after they literally non-tendered him and brought him back on a 1/$3M deal a week before spring training began.  Somehow taking seven years in the majors to develop a highly regarded college pitcher is now considered a huge development win and proof we were best in class.

Avg WAR for the 3rd overall pick is 11.5

Rodon is at 21 and still cruising. Development isnt linear and a fans unreal expectations for the 3rd pick in a draft doesnt mean that's how outcomes should be judged. 

23 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

FIP is a better predictor of future success than ERA, is more stable, and is a better reflection of pitcher talent.

Cease is exactly the kind of pitcher that has a lot of his flaws hidden by that "stability". He labors through innings, struggling with command and putting people on base. BBRef gives example scenarios in their WAR description that sound a lot like Dylan Cease command struggle innings. There's a reason the Sox didn't get the kind of package we all wanted for him, and there's a reason rumors were swirling that San Diego was thinking about trading him.

You also haven't answered where you're getting those pitching rankings from.

43 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I literally never said any of that.  I said injuries have spiked since the changes were made, which is 100% true, but we need more time to see why.  It is jumping to conclusions to think that we know who is getting what work done and why when there is no evidence to support it.

No, you said "Brian Bannister was hired is September of 2023.  That is plenty of time." in reply to "Did everyone all of a sudden make changes that caused a ton of injuries? Maybe, but I doubt it would take effect that quickly".

It's pretty clear what you were insinuating.

53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Avg WAR for the 3rd overall pick is 11.5

Rodon is at 21 and still cruising. Development isnt linear and a fans unreal expectations for the 3rd pick in a draft doesnt mean that's how outcomes should be judged. 

The White Sox got 6 fWAR over his first six seasons.  They literally non-tendered him after that point because they didn’t believe he was worth $4M.  I’m sorry bro, but that is not proof of quality pitching development whether you want to use the “isn’t always linear” trope or not.

1 hour ago, almagest said:

No, you said "Brian Bannister was hired is September of 2023.  That is plenty of time." in reply to "Did everyone all of a sudden make changes that caused a ton of injuries? Maybe, but I doubt it would take effect that quickly".

It's pretty clear what you were insinuating.

That's in response to "suddenly"  He's been here almost two years now.  That's not sudden.

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Rick Hahn was terrible at his job. 

The White Sox were very good at developing pitching while he was employed by the White Sox.

Both statements are true. 

The first statement is true.  The second statement not so much.  If they were so good at developing pitching, our competitive window wouldn’t have crashed and burned like it did.  The simple reality is from 2020 to 2023 we had a single pitcher in Cease achieve 10+ fWAR or basically average 3 wins over those 3 1/3 seasons.  Giolito would have as well if he had made all his starts.  Throw in one awesome season from Rodon after non-tendering him and that’s pretty much your entire “internally developed” pitching staff post rebuild.

“Success story” Lopez put up 0.1 fWAR over 18 starts during this time frame before one good season as a reliever with us.  Kopech put 0.7 over 56 starts in between one good season as a reliever.  1st round picks Carson Fulmer and Zack Burdi flopped incredibly hard.  Former top 100 prospect Alec Hansen flamed out in AA.  Dunning has flashed some backend potential, but ultimately wasn’t that big of a loss.  Pretty much nothing on the relief side of things that was actually sustainable.

I’m really struggling to see where all this premium development took place.  They did some good work with Cease and it was well documented over the course of the 2021 offseason.  I’ll give credit where credit is due.  Katz did some good work with a former top 10 prospect when he wasn’t actually part of our org, so again, not giving the White Sox any props here.  And then you got good ol’ Rodon who should have been the 1.01 pick when we drafted him who they couldn’t figure out how to turn in a front-end SP in the first six years they had him.  Glad we got that one awesome year out of him, but the goal of development isn’t to wait until after you have non-tendered the player and are down to your last year team of control before getting them to start approaching their ceiling.

23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's in response to "suddenly"  He's been here almost two years now.  That's not sudden.

Sudden or not, you're still saying Bannister deserves the blame.

21 minutes ago, almagest said:

Sudden or not, you're still saying Bannister deserves the blame.

This is apparently a good place to walk away from this.

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is apparently a good place to walk away from this.

Yeah, it is, unless you can explain how you linking "Bannister being here almost two years" with "a bunch of pitching injuries" is not casting the blame at his feet.

12 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, it is, unless you can explain how you linking "Bannister being here almost two years" with "a bunch of pitching injuries" is not casting the blame at his feet.

It would require you to read.  Apparently that didn't work, so not worth wasting anymore time on going in circles. 

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It would require you to read.  Apparently that didn't work, so not worth wasting anymore time on going in circles. 

I’m not engaging in petty insults. Have a good night.

The only thing I trust the White Sox to do is develop pitching and that's not a new thought. It's always been their best area but I agree that you can always improve.

2 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

The only thing I trust the White Sox to do is develop pitching and that's not a new thought. It's always been their best area but I agree that you can always improve.

I also trust them to screw up their hitting prospects.

I think that's always been their second best area.

I'll say this; this thread has reminded me how exhausting and pointless it is to participate in in-depth conversations about advanced analytics, modeling and ML... especially in baseball and athletic circles.

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll say this; this thread has reminded me how exhausting and pointless it is to participate in in-depth conversations about advanced analytics, modeling and ML... especially in baseball and athletic circles.

I've been a software developer, manager and senior leader working in ops, app dev, data and ML for over 20 years. While you make good points about how ML works and what pitfalls to avoid, you absolutely talk out of your ass a good chunk of the time and it's hilarious to watch you vent hot air all around here.

Still waiting on those sources.

Edited June 26, 2025Jun 26 by almagest

17 minutes ago, almagest said:

I've been a software developer, manager and senior leader working in ops, app dev, data and ML for over 20 years. While you make good points about how ML works and what pitfalls to avoid, you absolutely talk out of your ass a good chunk of the time and it's hilarious to watch you vent hot air all around here.

It's not that deep man. This stuff is all just fluff until it culminates in more winning. That's the point he's making. 

You also just said you don't engage with petty insults then went deeply personal and beyond "petty insults" to Ray. I mean what are we doing here? Calm down it's the fucking White Sox.

Edited June 26, 2025Jun 26 by chitownsportsfan

16 minutes ago, almagest said:

I've been a software developer, manager and senior leader working in ops, app dev, data and ML for over 20 years. While you make good points about how ML works and what pitfalls to avoid, you absolutely talk out of your ass a good chunk of the time and it's hilarious to watch you vent hot air all around here.

Still waiting on those sources.

16 hours ago, almagest said:

I’m not engaging in petty insults. Have a good night.

🤔

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's not that deep man. This stuff is all just fluff until it culminates in more winning. That's the point he's making. 

You also just said you don't engage with petty insults than went deeply personal and beyond "petty insults" to Ray. I mean what are we doing here? Calm down it's the fucking White Sox.

You noticed that irony/hilarity too?

10 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

🤔

You know what, that was probably too aggressive. My bad - don't mean to be a dick.

Edited June 26, 2025Jun 26 by almagest

59 minutes ago, almagest said:

You know what, that was probably too aggressive. My bad - don't mean to be a dick.

We're all adults. We all work(ed) jobs where we had to assess departments, amass data to find inefficiencies, etc. And we all know what corporate mumbo jumbo sounds like. It's usually a red flag when somebody leads with "I do this for a living", then sprays a fog of corporate-speak to prove they're the only ones with authority to critique anything. You're fine. 

17 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

We're all adults. We all work(ed) jobs where we had to assess departments, amass data to find inefficiencies, etc. And we all know what corporate mumbo jumbo sounds like. It's usually a red flag when somebody leads with "I do this for a living", then sprays a fog of corporate-speak to prove they're the only ones with authority to critique anything. You're fine. 

I appreciate the sentiment. I don't like baseless negativity and personal attacks, so I want to be sure I don't contribute to it. I definitely could've phrased what I said more constructively.

4 hours ago, almagest said:

I appreciate the sentiment. I don't like baseless negativity and personal attacks, so I want to be sure I don't contribute to it. I definitely could've phrased what I said more constructively.

Careful.

Being considerate, apologetic, and self-aware? Yikes.

18 hours ago, almagest said:

I've been a software developer, manager and senior leader working in ops, app dev, data and ML for over 20 years. While you make good points about how ML works and what pitfalls to avoid, you absolutely talk out of your ass a good chunk of the time and it's hilarious to watch you vent hot air all around here.

Still waiting on those sources.

The sources I cited in this thread are publicly available data. When I present findings here, they're not leveraging my own transformations or statistics because that would cause even more of a stir from people like you. They are referencing public metrics.

The source itself is data from MY model which I have built and utilized for going on 20+ years. I've posted unique findings, comps, and analysis on this very site that were derived from the model. In fact, I've used it so long that I built it leveraging R and the Lahman package, while also working in baseballr. I don't utilize R these days and switched everything over to python about 3 years ago with some help from conversion tools.

That said, I have nothing to prove to anyone here. I provide stats and data to contribute to the community and conversation and to provide a different perspective. I also can say with the utmost confidence that neither you or WestEddy have ever done anything close to my job, but I actually hate my job and I wish I did something else so I'm certainly not bragging about it.

I also probably do speak a bit corporate (I'd say more consulting than corporate), given that my job is to lead global technology transformations focusing on AI implementations and DBMS/data transformations and consolidations for large global orgs and governments. I bring up my background in these spaces to establish context. Nothing more.

I commented it's exhausting to have this dialogue because people online will never change their mind. The internet is not a place to discuss things for which you are an expert. Please tell me more about how I was talking out of my ass though, I'm very interested. And on that note, I am officially retiring from this conversation as I should have done pages ago.

Edited June 27, 2025Jun 27 by Look at Ray Ray Run