ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Honestly, if you and the White Sox truly believe his stuff is the same then there is much more reason to worry. From my perspective, I'm not seeing that at all so I'm less worried as I think this is the outcome of tinkering that frankly didn't need to occur. Sometimes, it's best to let great ride for as long as the tank allows for it. And adjusting for fatigue? Come on.... he's thrown 68 innings. What weight are you adding to account for the "fatigue." Lastly, command is 35-45% (depending on the model/who you ask) of stuff quality. So saying it's just command is like saying someones fastball just lost 4 MPH. Losing command is as detrimental to development as losing velo or spin. For the stuff, its just the numbers. As you said command it the issue. Not sure that changes staying in the Hitter friendly International league. The fatigue factor in not so much the total innings as it is now pitching every fifth day instead of once per week and going more than 4 innings at a time time. It a big adjustment to pitch on the shorter rest and more innings each outing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Honestly, if you and the White Sox truly believe his stuff is the same then there is much more reason to worry. From my perspective, I'm not seeing that at all so I'm less worried as I think this is the outcome of tinkering that frankly didn't need to occur. Sometimes, it's best to let great ride for as long as the tank allows for it. And adjusting for fatigue? Come on.... he's thrown 68 innings. What weight are you adding to account for the "fatigue." Lastly, command is 35-45% (depending on the model/who you ask) of stuff quality. So saying it's just command is like saying someones fastball just lost 4 MPH. Losing command is as detrimental to development as losing velo or spin. If we are looking at Schultz the big reason for fatigue is this is the first time in his life he is throwing a lot of pitches in each outing, and it is the first time he is doing it on a regular 5 day schedule. They babied him soooooo much the last couple of years, and then they just set him lose this year. Last year the most pitches he threw in an outing was 67. He never went more than 4 innings in any outing. This year 14 of his 15 outings have been over his former career high of 67, with those outing ranging from 70 to 93 pitches in an outing. 67 to 93 is around a 40% increase. The only time he was less than 67 was when he blew for 60 in one of his recent AAA starts, but he did it in 2 innings and he was yanked. The kid has already faced almost as many batters this year in a half of a season (306) as he did in a full season last year (358). It is a big adjustment to go out and know you can let your stuff loose as much as you want, because you don't need to last far, to knowing you want to push up against 100 pitches with it, so you need to have something for the 5th and 6th innings, which he had never seen in his professional career. Him and Shane Smith are in the same boat here. I want to see how the both bounceback next year to really know what we have. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: If we are looking at Schultz the big reason for fatigue is this is the first time in his life he is throwing a lot of pitches in each outing, and it is the first time he is doing it on a regular 5 day schedule. They babied him soooooo much the last couple of years, and then they just set him lose this year. Last year the most pitches he threw in an outing was 67. He never went more than 4 innings in any outing. This year 14 of his 15 outings have been over his former career high of 67, with those outing ranging from 70 to 93 pitches in an outing. 67 to 93 is around a 40% increase. The only time he was less than 67 was when he blew for 60 in one of his recent AAA starts, but he did it in 2 innings and he was yanked. The kid has already faced almost as many batters this year in a half of a season (306) as he did in a full season last year (358). It is a big adjustment to go out and know you can let your stuff loose as much as you want, because you don't need to last far, to knowing you want to push up against 100 pitches with it, so you need to have something for the 5th and 6th innings, which he had never seen in his professional career. Him and Shane Smith are in the same boat here. I want to see how the both bounceback next year to really know what we have. Was there justification for babying him as you put it due to the few innings he threw in high school and the build up process? I didn't follow hom back then so I'll let them decide on how they should progress his innings total. It makes sense from a physical standpoint. These adjustments are common as workload increases at all levels. As you mention Smith is probably going through it as well. Did previous organizations baby him as well? Maybe but since it seems that organizations tend to operate this way, I'll allow them to determine it. You are correct and we'll need to see how these 2 and really all of the UCL reconstruction pitchers bounce back next year. I'm still watching Crochet to see how he fares this year. An interesting case study and it will be interesting to see how this may apply to the group of UCL reconstruction group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: If we are looking at Schultz the big reason for fatigue is this is the first time in his life he is throwing a lot of pitches in each outing, and it is the first time he is doing it on a regular 5 day schedule. They babied him soooooo much the last couple of years, and then they just set him lose this year. Last year the most pitches he threw in an outing was 67. He never went more than 4 innings in any outing. This year 14 of his 15 outings have been over his former career high of 67, with those outing ranging from 70 to 93 pitches in an outing. 67 to 93 is around a 40% increase. The only time he was less than 67 was when he blew for 60 in one of his recent AAA starts, but he did it in 2 innings and he was yanked. The kid has already faced almost as many batters this year in a half of a season (306) as he did in a full season last year (358). It is a big adjustment to go out and know you can let your stuff loose as much as you want, because you don't need to last far, to knowing you want to push up against 100 pitches with it, so you need to have something for the 5th and 6th innings, which he had never seen in his professional career. Him and Shane Smith are in the same boat here. I want to see how the both bounceback next year to really know what we have. Don't disagree with anything you've said, but I just want them to stop pretending his stuff has not taken a considerate step back this year and if it's because of fatigue, OK I guess... but they're talking about him being in the MLB next year and he can't maintain his stuff in the minors. Also, maintaining stuff through the innings/pitch count they've asked of him is honestly high school and college level stuff (if you play year round) so it's honestly tough to excuse his complete failure based on that. I also don't see much difference in his numbers based on pitches thrown this year, but I admittedly have not dug in too deeply. His 2nd inning ERA is his second worst preceded by the 4th inning (which would make sense). The flag for me is his command to start games has been the challenge, and it has basically improved every inning after the 1st. So fatigue isn't driving the command challenges - at least not primarily - and a lack of command has been his biggest challenge and the most alarming YoY change. Everyone already knows how I feel about innings and pitch count management in the pros today. Trash trash trash. Edited July 11 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Don't disagree with anything you've said, but I just want them to stop pretending his stuff has not taken a considerate step back this year and if it's because of fatigue, OK I guess... but they're talking about him being in the MLB next year and he can't maintain his stuff in the minors. Also, maintaining stuff through the innings/pitch count they've asked of him is honestly high school and college level stuff (if you play year round) so it's honestly tough to excuse his complete failure based on that. I also don't see much difference in his numbers based on pitches thrown this year, but I admittedly have not dug in too deeply. His 2nd inning ERA is his second worst preceded by the 4th inning (which would make sense). The flag for me is his command to start games has been the challenge, and it has basically improved every inning after the 1st. So fatigue isn't driving the command challenges - at least not primarily. Oh I have been big on not rushing the kid. I don't like them rushing him to AAA while also pushing him as hard as he has ever been pushed. For me those two things don't work well together, and I think you are seeing it. It's like they jumped from first gear to fifth gear without regards for the transmission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Schultz did not pitch much his senior year of hs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 8 minutes ago, fathom said: Schultz did not pitch much his senior year of hs. Yeah, IIRC, there was some kind of sickness that kept him out of a lot of work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Don't disagree with anything you've said, but I just want them to stop pretending his stuff has not taken a considerate step back this year and if it's because of fatigue, OK I guess... but they're talking about him being in the MLB next year and he can't maintain his stuff in the minors. I also don't see much difference in his numbers based on pitches thrown this year, but I admittedly have not dug in too deeply. His 2nd inning ERA is his second worst preceded by the 4th inning (which would make sense). The flag for me is his command to start games has been the challenge, and it has basically improved every inning after the 1st. So fatigue isn't driving the command challenges - at least not primarily. His command is definitely an issue. That is something they need to work out. I'm just not sure if that is really going to improve in the hitter friendly International League. If he is healthy and all the pitch metrics show his pure stuff is there its just a matter of getting those innings and building up the workload to a full time starter in the MLB. We'll see what he looks like for the few innings he'll get at the end of this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 18 minutes ago, ptatc said: His command is definitely an issue. That is something they need to work out. I'm just not sure if that is really going to improve in the hitter friendly International League. If he is healthy and all the pitch metrics show his pure stuff is there its just a matter of getting those innings and building up the workload to a full time starter in the MLB. We'll see what he looks like for the few innings he'll get at the end of this year. You keep saying this, but it's very obvious his pure stuff is not there and no where close to where it was last year. He's struggled pretty much all year; he had a 1.69 WHIP the first month of the season. He walked 28 guys in his first 45 innings, but even more alarming he gave up 27 hits in 22 innings. It's just hard for me to say fatigue is the only factor when it's been a year-long and inning-wide issue for Schultz. It hasn't really been tied solely to work load increases, and while he has gotten "worse" since the first month, he was also much worse during that period than he had been historically. Edited July 11 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: You keep saying this, but it's very obvious his pure stuff is not there and no where close to where it was last year. He's struggled pretty much all year; he had a 1.69 WHIP the first month of the season. He walked 28 guys in his first 45 innings, but even more alarming he gave up 27 hits in 22 innings. It's just hard for me to say fatigue is the only factor when it's been a year-long and inning-wide issue for Schultz. It hasn't really been tied solely to work load increases, and while he has gotten "worse" since the first month, he was also much worse during that period. I would definitely be interested to see this data, especially the YoY stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 22 minutes ago, ptatc said: His command is definitely an issue. That is something they need to work out. I'm just not sure if that is really going to improve in the hitter friendly International League. If he is healthy and all the pitch metrics show his pure stuff is there its just a matter of getting those innings and building up the workload to a full time starter in the MLB. We'll see what he looks like for the few innings he'll get at the end of this year. This is actually a lot scary than fatigue causing a reduction in stuff. If he is throwing as well as ever, but can't find the strike zone and is getting hit around like crazy as he has moved up, that's a huge red flag that isn't very good. At least if he stuff was down because he was tired, that would make sense. I hope you are actually wrong here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: This is actually a lot scary than fatigue causing a reduction in stuff. If he is throwing as well as ever, but can't find the strike zone and is getting hit around like crazy as he has moved up, that's a huge red flag that isn't very good. At least if he stuff was down because he was tired, that would make sense. I hope you are actually wrong here. The command at AA is more worrisome. Listening to many of the pitchers going from AA to AAA, the adjustment to the different ball and the league takes awhile. Let hope its more getting used to the change in pitch mix and changing the pitches otherwise you could be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champagne030 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 49 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, IIRC, there was some kind of sickness that kept him out of a lot of work. He's local for me and I've seen him plenty (non-pro). He's been treated with kid gloves (not faulting it and I wouldn't want to be the one to wreck that arm either) his entire career. Yes, mono kept him out most of his last HS season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 12 minutes ago, champagne030 said: He's local for me and I've seen him plenty (non-pro). He's been treated with kid gloves (not faulting it and I wouldn't want to be the one to wreck that arm either) his entire career. Yes, mono kept him out most of his last HS season. That makes even more sense. Mono really causes fatigue and muscular fatigue for a pretty long period of time can be months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 13 minutes ago, ptatc said: That makes even more sense. Mono really causes fatigue and muscular fatigue for a pretty long period of time can be months. The funny thing is people thought the mono diagnosis was bullshit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiddleCoastBias Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 10 minutes ago, fathom said: The funny thing is people thought the mono diagnosis was bullshit I'm not familiar with this. Why would they contend that it wasn't real, like to what gain? I'm not doubting, just genuinely curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 10 minutes ago, fathom said: The funny thing is people thought the mono diagnosis was bullshit I feel like I played and grew up in a time of mono awareness. Every coach for every sport gave us the "be careful kissing your GF" talk and to get tested if you felt sick for over 2 weeks. This was early aughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 13 minutes ago, ptatc said: That makes even more sense. Mono really causes fatigue and muscular fatigue for a pretty long period of time can be months. Had mono my senior year and didn't miss a game. Im also about 10 inches shorter and wasnt a first round talent. Maybe that played a role lol. All jokes aside, Command is actually a pretty normal challenge for pitchers 6'7+ as they develop. Hard to command all those levers consistently. It's one reason I would have taken Schultz over Painter entering this year. Because he was 6'10 with ++ command at 20 years old. Almost unheard of. To see it regress isnt great, but its even less great when it feels like the outcome was based on white sox tweaking. Hopefully he returns to form sooner than later and hes not forced to stick to some timeline they created before this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 10 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said: I'm not familiar with this. Why would they contend that it wasn't real, like to what gain? I'm not doubting, just genuinely curious. Some rumors in this area he was told to sit out the rest of the season by his reps. I was at the game when he returned against Oswego. It was electric. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Had mono my senior year and didn't miss a game. Im also about 10 inches shorter and wasnt a first round talent. Maybe that played a role lol. All jokes aside, Command is actually a pretty normal challenge for pitchers 6'7+ as they develop. Hard to command all those levers consistently. It's one reason I would have taken Schultz over Painter entering this year. Because he was 6'10 with ++ command at 20 years old. Almost unheard of. To see it regress isnt great, but its even less great when it feels like the outcome was based on white sox tweaking. Hopefully he returns to form sooner than later and hes not forced to stick to some timeline they created before this season. It’s not just the walks, but he’s been wild in the strike zone. He has a hard time against righties as everything is outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Had mono my senior year and didn't miss a game. Im also about 10 inches shorter and wasnt a first round talent. Maybe that played a role lol. All jokes aside, Command is actually a pretty normal challenge for pitchers 6'7+ as they develop. Hard to command all those levers consistently. It's one reason I would have taken Schultz over Painter entering this year. Because he was 6'10 with ++ command at 20 years old. Almost unheard of. To see it regress isnt great, but its even less great when it feels like the outcome was based on white sox tweaking. Hopefully he returns to form sooner than later and hes not forced to stick to some timeline they created before this season. It is noteworthy that things went from bad to worse when they changed his pitch mix. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: It is noteworthy that things went from bad to worse when they changed his pitch mix. Yep, instead of mastering 2-3, he’s been throwing 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Maybe he's just not very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, oldsox said: Maybe he's just not very good. I advocated for trading him for a top hitting prospect last offseason, but that’s more because of injury concern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 28 minutes ago, oldsox said: Maybe he's just not very good. Possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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