Robert Thread: Sox talking to Reds, Mets

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm on the fence in all directions. I'd rather they trade Robert, as I'd like the roster churn and new hope for whatever they throw out into CF. While keeping Robert does keep a positional hole off the todo list, he adds pressure to have a backup who won't hurt you for 60 games. That's 2 solid months. 

Robert's value is most probably at its highest right now. There's an entire season of conditioning and usage a team could obtain. There are more teams in the demand chain. The Reds, Pirates and Giants most probably aren't kicking the tires on 2 months of CF if they're playing .500 ball on July 15. 

You trade Robert (and cash) right now if you can get real value.  Otherwise, I’m holding until the deadline and hoping for a big rebound.  Acquiring a bunch of relief prospects or utility guys doesn’t do it for me.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You trade Robert (and cash) right now if you can get real value.  Otherwise, I’m holding until the deadline and hoping for a big rebound.  Acquiring a bunch of relief prospects or utility guys doesn’t do it for me.

If they got Chase Petty and the Comp pick, I'd do it. Maybe Getz is holding out for that other player. I don't think Robert has more value than the field right now. There is potential ceiling, but he's going to be injured for a chunk, he is going to sulk, he does need motivation to produce. I just don't think there will be much more value or interest at the trade deadline, regardless of what Robert does in the first 4 months. 

 

[Reyno45]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Yep. Sox have always raved about his incredible work ethic. 

I mean the Sox chose to pay him $20 mil, if he was Moncada-Eloy level of immature he wouldn’t be here right now 

[MEANS]

43 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Obviously it works both ways but the poster stated that Robert provided lineup protection, not that he needed it himself.

Maybe he edited his post but it does not say HE Provided lineup protection. 

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, MEANS said:

Maybe he edited his post but it does not say HE Provided lineup protection. 

Huh?

”Honestly disagree. His potential stability even if for 110 games and protection is likely worth more to the younger players in this line-up than whatever you get in a trade at this point.”

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

If they got Chase Petty and the Comp pick, I'd do it. Maybe Getz is holding out for that other player. I don't think Robert has more value than the field right now. There is potential ceiling, but he's going to be injured for a chunk, he is going to sulk, he does need motivation to produce. I just don't think there will be much more value or interest at the trade deadline, regardless of what Robert does in the first 4 months. 

 

Not sure I follow the sulking or motivation angles here.  I think Robert works hard and would benefit from being part of a winning team like all players would.  Health is the ultimate wild card if you hold onto to him, but I’m taking that gamble if all I can get is scraps right now.  If you can get Petty and a comp lick then you make the trade and find a way to add another OF.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

57 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Meh. He won’t be healthy and if he is, rental bats don’t bring back any return anyway. 

Im starting to think the chances of him being traded before opening day are slim. 

There's only one way they actually get what they want or more for Robert. He must stay healthy for the 1st 3 months of the season hit for power , ideally close to 15 HRs, and pile up at 2.5-3.0 fWAR by the end of June. Just let him hit and play  great defense. He doesnt need to pile up stolen bases. 

I was hoping the Sox or Boras Corp. had recommended Robert Jr. to the Cressey Sports Performance facility in Palm Beach Gardens, Fl. to prepare him for a healthy and productive season. That place has worked with a lot of professional athletes.

 

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not sure I follow the sulking or motivation angles here.  I think Robert works hard and would benefit from being part of a winning team like all players would.  Health is the ultimate wild card if you hold onto to him, but I’m taking that gamble if all I can get is scraps right now.  If you can get Petty and a comp lick then you make the trade and find a way to add another OF.

I do not argue that Robert works hard. But I do think he thinks too much, or gets brought down by losing, or whatnot. A bunch of the arguments here center around putting a stronger lineup around him to protect him. Health is no longer a wild card, unfortunately. 

I think Getz is riding the line. We could use him for 4 months in CF. We're not trading him for scraps. That's established.

Robert does have unrealized "ceiling" tied up in him continuing to mature as a hitter, getting better players around him, etc. Average major leaguers shouldn't really be talked about in those terms. They should plug in and produce at the rate they're known for, not only if you do a bunch of other things to "protect" or motivate him. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not sure I follow the sulking or motivation angles here.  I think Robert works hard and would benefit from being part of a winning team like all players would.  Health is the ultimate wild card if you hold onto to him, but I’m taking that gamble if all I can get is scraps right now.  If you can get Petty and a comp lick then you make the trade and find a way to add another OF.

I think the motivation and work ethic stuff is almost certainly BS.  These guys have played through injuries for most of their careers and it has robbed them of ability. I really don't think it gets better.

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He must stay healthy for the 1st 3 months of the season hit for power , ideally close to 15 HRs, and pile up at 2.5-3.0 fWAR by the end of June. Just let him hit and play  great defense. He doesnt need to pile up stolen bases. 

The more I read and respond to this, the more it cements in my mind that Luis Robert is a 2 bWAR/162 player who will only play around 100 games, so you'll get about 1 bWAR by end of June, mostly predicated on his speed and defense. He won't stay healthy. He won't hit the way we hope for. He's going to hit for about 15% below league average. There's no magic hitting streak that's going to pry loose somebody's #101 prospect that can explode in our system. 

2023 is the curse that makes up believe there's a monster pent up in there. There isn't. Look at his batting average drop precipitously over his career, year by year. 

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think the motivation and work ethic stuff is almost certainly BS.  These guys have played through injuries for most of their careers and it has robbed them of ability. I really don't think it gets better.

I don't think Robert lollygags, or any of that. What I said was more in response to the arguments about Robert perking up after Colson and Teel were promoted, or the "protection in the lineup" canard. 

[DoUEvenShift]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

You can give Billy Hamilton or the like a ST invite if you want a backup defensive CF.

Hell yea

[MEANS]

2 hours ago, Reyno45 said:

He finally has some other bats in the lineup and his value doesn’t justify his ceiling. I know he’s oft injured but I’d rather bank on the upside with more lineup protection than give him up for simply whatever you can get right now. 
I know you really want the Sox to get that comp pick but if they’re gonna trade Robert they gotta get someone back that has more of an impact than a Chase Petty. And if the offer isn’t out there hold him, it seems as though Chris Getz isn’t desperate to move him. 

@WhiteSox2023 I’m sorry this is the post I was referring to. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I don't think Robert lollygags, or any of that. What I said was more in response to the arguments about Robert perking up after Colson and Teel were promoted, or the "protection in the lineup" canard. 

It's been a source of irritation for me for a while.  It's wild how every Latin or minority player gets their work ethic questioned after injuries, but a the overweight white guys get to run their mouths about them, even when they are injured.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I do not argue that Robert works hard. But I do think he thinks too much, or gets brought down by losing, or whatnot. A bunch of the arguments here center around putting a stronger lineup around him to protect him. Health is no longer a wild card, unfortunately. 

I think Getz is riding the line. We could use him for 4 months in CF. We're not trading him for scraps. That's established.

Robert does have unrealized "ceiling" tied up in him continuing to mature as a hitter, getting better players around him, etc. Average major leaguers shouldn't really be talked about in those terms. They should plug in and produce at the rate they're known for, not only if you do a bunch of other things to "protect" or motivate him. 

A wildly undisciplined hitter is going to struggle significantly when he’s part of the worst offense in major league history which was the case two years ago.  He has worked hard these past two seasons to improve his plate discipline, but pitchers could simply pitch around him and it impacted his overall results.  However, in the second half of last year, things really started to click as the talent level around him improved a ton.  He suddenly went from a K rate in the 29% to 35% range against RHP down to the 16% to 18% range.  The reality is Robert can be a well above average hitter due to his power, but in order to get the pitches he can actually punish he needs some other decent hitters around him.  I don’t see why that’s unreasonable.

[TheBooneLoganEra]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's been a source of irritation for me for a while.  It's wild how every Latin or minority player gets their work ethic questioned after injuries, but a the overweight white guys get to run their mouths about them, even when they are injured.

Lol stop. Vaughn got s%*# for his work ethic too. Underperforming players tend to endure more of a critical eye deservedly or not. 

[WestEddy]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's been a source of irritation for me for a while.  It's wild how every Latin or minority player gets their work ethic questioned after injuries, but a the overweight white guys get to run their mouths about them, even when they are injured.

You are correct, and I agree with you. I even shut up when the Lenyn Sosa/low IQ stuff gets going because I think that's of the same ilk. There's even been a study about announcer opinions when it comes to white vs. non-white players. 

I believe that Robert works hard, harder than any of us can imagine. I think all these guys think baseball in ways none of us can. 

[SoCalChiSox]

I dont see how Bleday is a replacement for Robert for CIN. He isn't really a real CF and he's LH so he isn't going to kill LHP as i read they really need a righty bat to kill LHP.

Is Krall maybe making this move to get rid of one of their other OFers to make room for Robert? Or is he trying to create the illusion of leverage for the endgame of trade discussions?

I don't see them as duplicative at all. It's also only 1.4m and even for a poor franchise that's not really a problem.

I'm not saying Bleday isn't useful and isn't a good buy low candidate for them that they can flip, he is, but he doesn't really address what they need. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

33 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The more I read and respond to this, the more it cements in my mind that Luis Robert is a 2 bWAR/162 player who will only play around 100 games, so you'll get about 1 bWAR by end of June, mostly predicated on his speed and defense. He won't stay healthy. He won't hit the way we hope for. He's going to hit for about 15% below league average. There's no magic hitting streak that's going to pry loose somebody's #101 prospect that can explode in our system. 

2023 is the curse that makes up believe there's a monster pent up in there. There isn't. Look at his batting average drop precipitously over his career, year by year. 

I understand the doubts but the Sox really have no choice than to hang onto him at this point and hope the Pope miracles continue and he gets the kind of hands on approach in the off sesson they gave Colson in season. 

No one thought Crochet could stay healthy either or transition into what he became either. 

I know the odds are against him performing the way I said would make a difference in a trade. But in game power definitely has to show itself again while maintaining the plate discipline and fielding of last year. All that could result in 3 fWAR before entering July. Those kind of numbers would surely increase his value. 

[WhiteSox2023]

1 minute ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I dont see how Bleday is a replacement for Robert for CIN. He isn't really a real CF and he's LH so he isn't going to kill LHP as i read they really need a righty bat to kill LHP.

Is Krall maybe making this move to get rid of one of their other OFers to make room for Robert? Or is he trying to create the illusion of leverage for the endgame of trade discussions?

I don't see them as duplicative at all. It's also only 1.4m and even for a poor franchise that's not really a problem.

I'm not saying Bleday isn't useful and isn't a good buy low candidate for them that they can flip, he is, but he doesn't really address what they need. 

They can start Friedl in CF, Bleday in LF, and Marté in RF.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

25 minutes ago, TheBooneLoganEra said:

Lol stop. Vaughn got s%*# for his work ethic too. Underperforming players tend to endure more of a critical eye deservedly or not. 

Plus Mr.Source of Irritation talks out of both sides of his mouth. He has talked about Sosa's low baseball IQ as much as anyone here.

[Reyno45]

3 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

At worst, you get nothing out of him because he gets hurt again because he is so injury-prone.

Then so be it, I don’t want to give Robert up for anything short of another impact player either in the rotation or in the lineup. I think this is very different than an Andrew Vaughn situation, if Robert gets traded for scraps and turns it on, I’ll speak for myself, I’d be pissed. I truly think Getz feels the same way, they need something of significance back for his ceiling. If the offers aren’t great then I’d rather keep him for the next two seasons and risk losing him for nothing than dumping him for nothing now. 

And yes I’m fully aware of his injury history

Edited 2 hours ago by Reyno45

[WestEddy]

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A wildly undisciplined hitter is going to struggle significantly when he’s part of the worst offense in major league history which was the case two years ago.  He has worked hard these past two seasons to improve his plate discipline, but pitchers could simply pitch around him and it impacted his overall results.  However, in the second half of last year, things really started to click as the talent level around him improved a ton.  He suddenly went from a K rate in the 29% to 35% range against RHP down to the 16% to 18% range.  The reality is Robert can be a well above average hitter due to his power, but in order to get the pitches he can actually punish he needs some other decent hitters around him.  I don’t see why that’s unreasonable.

Lineup construction is a different argument from Robert's abilities and ceiling. People feel compelled to shift focus from Robert to lineup, roster and culture issues because for the last 2 seasons, Robert has OPSed 15% below average. 

I agree with you that Robert seems to be coming around, offensively. There are positives to be gleaned from keeping him just as there are to trading him for an interesting return. I vote for trading him, more based on the fact that he's not part of the future, could offer opportunity to blocked or challenged post-hype dudes, and boredom. 

My main argument is that any TDL return isn't going to be better than now. Robert covering CF is value that we're mostly discounting. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Reyno45 said:

Then so be it, I don’t want to give Robert up for anything short of another impact player either in the rotation or in the lineup. I think this is very different than an Andrew Vaughn situation, if Robert gets traded for scraps and turns it on, I’ll speak for myself, I’d be pissed. I truly think Getz feels the same way, they need something of significance back for his ceiling. If the offers aren’t great then I’d rather keep him for the next two seasons and risk losing him for nothing than dumping him nothing now. 

And yes I’m fully aware of his injury history

One other thing we have to be aware of if the Murakami signing was predicated on JR insisting that Robert money is at least halfway eliminated. I wouldnt put it past JR to insist a Robert trade be completed by opening day. Getz may not have the luxury of paying him and Murakami at the same time. 

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I understand the doubts but the Sox really have no choice than to hang onto him at this point and hope the Pope miracles continue and he gets the kind of hands on approach in the off sesson they gave Colson in season. 

No one thought Crochet could stay healthy either or transition into what he became either. 

I know the odds are against him performing the way I said would make a difference in a trade. But in game power definitely has to show itself again while maintaining the plate discipline and fielding of last year. All that could result in 3 fWAR before entering July. Those kind of numbers would surely increase his value. 

2 things. I did think Crochet could stay healthy. The cause of one of my first wildings, here. Crochet has issues that resulted in TJS and looked healthy. Robert is just chronically injured. Every season, he pulls something doing normal baseball things. 

Also, when you talk about Robert putting up 3 WAR by the end of June, you're talking about a rate of production he's never attained in his career. That's not even "odds against him" territory. I agree that he'd have to become a completely different player in order to change the conversation at the TDL to a player teams vied for. But that's like betting on the dealer mistakenly leaving the instruction card in a deck of cards, and you getting a pair of them on the draw. All in order to get a slightly better return.