Robert Thread: Sox talking to Reds, Mets

[Sambuca]

Keep him and let’s see what happens this season. I would really love to enjoy a baseball season again. 

If the org is that strapped for money, it makes zero sense to choose extending him for 20mil then eat half his contract for a return that simply adds some depth to the system. 

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

reminds me of sunk cost fallacy 

Essentially it is. 

They seem determined to get "value" for Robert, even though for years now they haven't agreed on what that "value" is.  I think of it this way.  Two months ago, you could have let Robert go for almost nothing.   Then you obligated yourself to $20 million for him.  Now, if we were willing to pay $10 million dollars we could supposedly have Chase Petty, a Comp Pick, and maybe another post TJS pitcher.  If you remove Robert's name, essentially we would be paying $10 million for the two players and the draft pick.  That's 12 years of pretty highly thought of pitchers, plus the 72nd pick in the draft (including the extra draft cap space of around $1.15m based on LY).

So is that "value"?  Isn't that about what we turned down in July, and not too far off of what Cincy offered a year ago?  If that has been his worth for a year now, why did we bring him back knowing what his worth has been?

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

Keep him and let’s see what happens this season. I would really love to enjoy a baseball season again. 

If the org is that strapped for money, it makes zero sense to choose extending him for 20mil then eat half his contract for a return that simply adds some depth to the system. 

Well, if the Bartolo Colonoscopy tweet has any veracity, they'd get a starting pitcher they could work on this season, a CF who hasn't made the transition to AAA yet, and a Comp pick that pads out the 2026 draft even further. While that is certainly not the Crochet return, this would definitely be workable for $10 and Robert. 

[almagest]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Well, if the Bartolo Colonoscopy tweet has any veracity, they'd get a starting pitcher they could work on this season, a CF who hasn't made the transition to AAA yet, and a Comp pick that pads out the 2026 draft even further. While that is certainly not the Crochet return, this would definitely be workable for $10 and Robert. 

It has zero veracity

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

It has zero veracity

Not that somebody leaked that info to him, but that Getz was asking for a player beyond Petty (which Wittenmeyer has already told us) AND the Comp pick, which we know Getz wants to get his hands on. 

[almagest]

1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

Not that somebody leaked that info to him, but that Getz was asking for a player beyond Petty (which Wittenmeyer has already told us) AND the Comp pick, which we know Getz wants to get his hands on. 

I don't think any player was ever directly confirmed by Whittenmeyer (which i guess isn't surprising). Petty was listed as an example of what was on the table. Nothing about a comp pick in the Whittenmeyer article either. He brought up Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson, both of whom are recovering from TJ surgery. Williamson is also 27 so not super interested in him. Aguiar is 23 so maybe? His minors stats are just ok. If all three were offered maybe? Very much doubt that was the case though.

Just don't think there's enough value there to replace Robert for even 1/2 the year unless they have a strong hunch they can fix Petty. As he is, he's a bad AAA pitcher.

I just don't get the rush to trade Robert for scraps. I'm 100% fine having him play CF. Not like he's blocking anyone.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

2 month rental bats don’t really bring much back. And that’s if he’s even both healthy and producing. Pretty gigantic “if.”

He has another team option and could be QO’d after that if he mostly returns to form and stays healthy.  If he produces and stays healthy (both ifs obviously), he is no longer a pure rental at the deadline and any return would reflect that.

[Buehrle>Wood]

52 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

reminds me of sunk cost fallacy 

Sunk cost fallacy is where the alternative of the cost is superior. Obviously that doesn't apply here when Robert is still a quality player. You could apply it to Benitendi where we could get similar production for that 17 million from some guy off the street by sinking the cost.

It's clear Robert has more upside than downside at this point. Wasn't the case two years ago. Probably wasn't the case last year. That is all of course because he's hit his downside the last two years, leaving much more room above to where hes at now. No reason to make a trade just to make a trade in some attempt to correct the mistake of not trading him the last two years. 

 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He has another team option and could be QO’d after that if he mostly returns to form and stays healthy.  If he produces and stays healthy (both ifs obviously), he is no longer a pure rental at the deadline and any return would reflect that.

Yet teams haven't valued him that way.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Sunk cost fallacy is where the alternative of the cost is superior. Obviously that doesn't apply here when Robert is still a quality player. You could apply it to Benitendi where we could get similar production for that 17 million from some guy off the street by sinking the cost.

It's clear Robert has more upside than downside at this point. Wasn't the case two years ago. Probably wasn't the case last year. That is all of course because he's hit his downside the last two years, leaving much more room above to where hes at now. No reason to make a trade just to make a trade in some attempt to correct the mistake of not trading him the last two years. 

 

Robert’s xwOBA last year was .033 points higher than his wOBA and above league average overall.  And that’s despite a rough start to the season when he had little protection and was still working through stuff.  If he can play even 2/3 of a season and hit like that he’s well worth his $20M salary.  If he can get his wRC+ to say 115 and stay healthy, he provides a fuckton of surplus value.  I can’t guarantee he will stay healthy, but I think there is a good chance he gets his wRC+ to that figure and erases the notion he is suddenly a bad hitter.  Given we have nothing else of value to use the money on, I’m ok rolling the dice on Robert and seeing what happens.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yet teams haven't valued him that way.

Because his actual results have been down and he hasn’t stayed healthy.  Teams aren’t going to pay up until he shows his offensive struggles are behind him while also maintaining health leading up to the deadline.

[southsider2k5]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because his actual results have been down and he hasn’t stayed healthy.  Teams aren’t going to pay up until he shows his offensive struggles are behind him while also maintaining health leading up to the deadline.

Which is exactly why repeating the cycle is such a waste.  

[Bob Sacamano]

38 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because his actual results have been down and he hasn’t stayed healthy.  Teams aren’t going to pay up until he shows his offensive struggles are behind him while also maintaining health leading up to the deadline.

Teams aren’t going to pay up for 2 months

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Teams aren’t going to pay up for 2 months

It’s not a two month commitment if he’s hitting well and healthy

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Teams aren’t going to pay up for 2 months

But wait, we can pick up his option again!

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s not a two month commitment if he’s hitting well and healthy

But teams refuse to give value for the option, and have for a while now.

[SoCalChiSox]

Get something fucking accomplished already.

It shouldn't be this hard to get a useful piece if we are putting in half the money.

I'm looking at NYM prospects right now and assuming Tong and Sproat wouldn't be in the deal, it's ugly if we are looking at pitching.

PIT may be a better fit.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 hours ago, almagest said:

And if teams view him this way (which it seems they do), then there's no shot they're getting anything good for him right now either, even if they eat money. So you trade him and pay $10 million of his salary and probably get nothing useful - if the best case rumors are true, where the Sox get a reclamation pitcher in the minors and a comp pick worth about $1 mil is that enough for you? It's not for me, as neither the comp pick nor a reclamation project are very likely to amount to anything. You then have a hole in CF and if it was so easy to find 1.5 to 2 WAR there in free agency or in other trades, then teams wouldn't even be talking about Robert.

Yeah, I’d be ok with that.