OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 2/5/2026 at 3:21 PM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'd argue it did not turn out great for the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. We backed ourselves into a corner and had to trade him because he only had 2 years left BECAUSE we threw him into the bullpen (and left him there).

These alternate timelines are pure fantasy. Youre taking what turned out to be a great path for him and saying that another path could have produced the same result now that you know the final outcome. 

Crochet was not some dominant starting pitcher in college. He pitched more in relief than he did as a SP. 

His final year he only pitch 3 innings because he missed the opening 3 weeks of the season with a mild shoulder sprain finally made a start and then the season was wiped out by Covid. 

The Sox only drafted him because he had a big lefthanded arm . Scout were split between his potential as a 1 or 2 starter but knew the high probability to be a high leverage reliever . 

The problem with the fan fantasy is you're projecting almost every decision made ending up best case scenario and linear development where everything goes right. You nor anyone else explains that part of their "argument". It just magically happens.

Whenever I see this opinion ( not just by you) I never see a fan give me a timeline of this fantasy such as Crochet spends his 1st 3 years developing in the minors building up his arm and innings and does not ever need TJ surgery and is never hurt or is it he still needs TJ surgery but when does it happen ?  He never has shoulder sprains or forearm tightness or mechanical issues ? What year does TJ happen ,his 1st 2nd or 3rd year in the minors ? Does his body then handle the surgery and rehab the same way it did after he was named opening day starter in 2024 ? Does he develop the cutter in the minors without Bannister's help since Getz didnt hire Bannister til Sept. 22, 2023. Or does the rebuild never happen because this magical version of Crochet result in the 1st rebuild having sustained success ?  Or maybe he's still in the minors  developing when the 1st rebuild collapses. When does he succeed as a starting pitcher ? Is it still in 2024 ? So they dont trade him because now he has 5 more years of eligibility only now there's no Teel , Braden M., Meidroth,W. Gonzalez. So do we then not end up with the 1:1 pick ? How does his presence alter our other draft picks ?

These fan fiction scenarios of a perfectly linear development with every decision along the way turning out with the maximum amount of service time with Crochet ending up the same dominant pitcher is just silly. You might as well write baseball comic books with multi-verses where every Sox player is a super hero.

Edited February 7 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

I think Id rather fantasize that in a competive year others develop to fill high leversge BP roles like W.Gonzalez, Berroa or Paez. Or the starting pitching breaks out among those already with enough innings under their belts along with those position player hitting breakouts you mentioned and some defensive breakouts too from Baldwin along with an offensive side breakout too. The depth would be so much better with unexpected quality results . Maybe some of the other TJ guys besides Berroa can contribute too . 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 2/5/2026 at 6:54 PM, WestEddy said:

I'd think you'd have to have Colson and Murakami both hitting 30+, Vargas, Meidroth, Quero, Teel and Baldwin all come into their own, Acuña/Pereira contributing, Shane Smith and Davis Martin both become 3+ WAR pitchers, Burke and Kay at least 2 WAR, the bullpen gels and becomes an asset, and then, maybe you're a .500 team? Then maybe you rush one of Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith to be a lefty specialist for a couple of months?

But even if everything breaks right and this team is 52-48 towards the end of July and Detroit isn't pulling away, they sure ain't trading for anybody. So yeah, they might convert somebody to keep the balloon in the air. 

You mentioned an awful lot of good things happening with the hitting and starting and relief pitching. 

If you already think the Sox are capable of 75 wins with only some of those things happening how is it they're barely above . 500 with a bunch of other good things happening ? 

Are they still trading Slater,  Dominquez or perhaps Murakami because they are short term assets and creating a worse 2027 season that now relies on a Braden Montgomery, Hagen Smith, Schultz, Antonacci, Bonemer and if Cholowsky is drafted a quick developmental time line for him now that the core and the BP are more established ? 

I know I'm just extrapolating it out farther then you did to build a timeline but each successive year needs to have young player after young player succeed. Sooner later you have to spend to keep some players long term. And the international signing period is still a huge question mark until we can development some 16 year olds which may not happen for another 6 years . Tampa Bay as a model is a good start but they are well established doing what they do.  Although they have come close , they never got the brass ring at their peak. Now theyre back in a bit of a dip while the money teams just buy their ways out of dips while Tampa Bay gets poached and loses their best people. 

The top of the pile usually buys a lot of pitching and drafts a lot of hitters. Without a spender owning the team its hard to sustain even limited success even with a strong foundation that develops players because it takes a lot of players to win year after year if you always have to trade away your best guys. Sucks to be stuck in neutral waiting on the new owner but until then would be nice to be above . 500 a few years in a row make the playoffs a year or 2 and still maintain and improve player development. Oh yeah squeeze in a new stadium too. I hope the Pope has a nice long reign. 

[Chicago White Sox]

9 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

I was kind of surprised to not see people here talking about him getting a shot to start. He threw 101 innings last year, a lot of multiple inning outings, I think he would be primed to start and get up to 140-150 innings this year. He should be given the shot, would be awesome if he turned into a good starter. He started in the minors and he pitched well enough last year

I’d love to see Vasil as the #5 to open the season and put Newcomb in the bullpen where he belongs.  Best internal alignment for the broader pitching staff IMO.

[Chicago White Sox]

Update after latest moves / news:

Lineup:

• 1B: Murakami (L)
• 2B: Meidroth (R)
• SS: C. Montgomery (L)
• 3B: Vargas (R)
• LF: Baldwin (S)
• CF: Acuña (R)
• RF: Hays (R)
• DH: Quero (S)
• CA: Teel (L)

Bench:

• BC: Lee (R)
• IF: Sosa (R)
• OF: Pereira (R)
• OF: Benintendi (L)

Rotation:

1. Smith (R)
2. Martin (R)
3. Kay (L)
4. Burke (R)
5. Vasil (R)

Bullpen:

• CL: Dominguez (R)
• SU: Taylor (R)
• SU: Leasure (R)
• MR: Hicks (R)
• MR: Newcomb (L)
• MR: Gonzalez (R)
• MR: Gilbert (L)
• LR: Paez (R)

DFA’d or Returned:

• IF: Mead (R) 
• OF: Hill (R)
• RP: Alberto (R)

40 Man Roster Depth:

• IF: Murray (R)
• OF: Peters (L)
• SP: Sandlin (R)
• SP: Cannon (R)
• SP: Davitt (R)
• SP: Thorpe (R)
• SP: Bush (L)
• SP: McDougal (R)
• SP: Murphy (L)
• RP: Eisert (L)
• RP: Berroa (R)

Non 40 Reinforcements:

• CA: Romo (R)
• IF: Antonacci (L)
• IF: Bergolla (L)
• OF: Montgomery (L)
• OF: Kelenic (L)
• SP: Schultz (L)
• SP: Smith (L)
• SP: Adams (R)
• RP: Franklin (R)
• RP: Davis (R)
• RP: Coffey (R)
• RP: Peoples (R)
• RP: Borucki (L)
• RP: Schweitzer (L)

Edited February 7 by Chicago White Sox

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Update after latest moves / news:

Lineup:

• 1B: Murakami (L)
• 2B: Meidroth (R)
• SS: C. Montgomery (L)
• 3B: Vargas (R)
• LF: Baldwin (S)
• CF: Acuña (R)
• RF: Hays (R)
• DH: Quero (S)
• CA: Teel (L)

Bench:

• BC: Lee (R)
• IF: Sosa (R)
• OF: Pereira (R)
• OF: Benintendi (L)

Rotation:

1. Smith (R)
2. Martin (R)
3. Kay (L)
4. Burke (R)
5. Vasil (R)

Bullpen:

• CL: Dominguez (R)
• SU: Taylor (R)
• SU: Leasure (R)
• MR: Hicks (R)
• MR: Newcomb (L)
• MR: Gonzalez (R)
• MR: Gilbert (L)
• LR: Paez (R)

DFA’d or Returned:

• IF: Mead (R) 
• OF: Hill (R)
• RP: Alberto (R)

40 Man Roster Depth:

• IF: Murray (R)
• OF: Peters (L)
• SP: Sandlin (R)
• SP: Cannon (R)
• SP: Davitt (R)
• SP: Thorpe (R)
• SP: Bush (L)
• SP: McDougal (R)
• SP: Murphy (L)
• RP: Eisert (L)
• RP: Berroa (R)

Non 40 Reinforcements:

• CA: Romo (R)
• IF: Antonacci (L)
• IF: Bergolla (L)
• OF: Montgomery (L)
• OF: Kelenic (L)
• SP: Schultz (L)
• SP: Smith (L)
• SP: Adams (R)
• RP: Franklin (R)
• RP: Davis (R)
• RP: Coffey (R)
• RP: Peoples (R)
• RP: Borucki (L)
• RP: Schweitzer (L)

You and your damn transparent copy / paste!  🤣

[Chicago White Sox]

As I look where the projected OD roster stands right now, the biggest immediate “need” would be the rotation.  Shane Smith is the only guy who is arguably a long-term rotation staple.  Looking at his performance last year and assuming some improvement, I think he has the potential to be a #3 SP on a championship level team.  For 2026, he’s the automatic #1 and should last the season in the rotation.

After Smith things get dicey real fast.  Martin has been very mediocre in his major league career and his strikeout stuff regressed significantly last year.  If he can’t find an out pitch, his longevity in the rotation could be short lived.  Kay is semi interesting, but also a complete wild card.  He should be able to provide innings, but will they be any good?  If not, he could see himself in the bullpen by the 2H.

As for the last two spots, I think one of the jobs is Burke’s to lose.  I think it’s very important to remind people that this kid god better as the season progressed and was able to be fairly productive by the end of the season despite hit slider going completely backwards last year.  If that one pitch returns to form and we see the guy who flashed at the end of 2024, I think we’re talking a guy with #3 potential.

So to circle back to the original point, the #5 spot right now is a massive hole.  If we really want to give ourselves the best chance to surprise next year, we should go out and add a veteran SP.  There are plenty of free agents who will only get one or two year deals that could potentially work for us.  That being said, is signing a vet the right move to make with a long-term vision in mind?

IMO, I think there is a case to be made to stick with what we have.  I 100% get the adage you can never have enough pitching and I’d certainly feel differently if this team was one hole away from being serious contenders.  And I’m sure the baseball gods will curse us with multiple injuries in camp for posting this.  However, I simply like the young arms we have and want to ensure there is ample runway for them.

What’s changed my tune here a bit is Vasil.  I always felt that he should be a guy to open the season in the rotation and be given a short-term audition.  If he fails, he goes back to a bulk reliever role and another young arm takes his spot.  The other addition that changes the calculus some is Sandlin.  They clearly like the kid given the financial risk they assumed to get him.  I assume he’ll start the year in AAA for some seasoning, but think he could be ready by May to replace the weakest link.

But beyond just those two is a sizable list of pitching.  People rip the Cease trade and rightly so, but the centerpiece of that trade is still alive & hopefully kicking for the Sox soon enough.  This is a kid that was Minor League Pitcher of the Year back in 2023 with a minors leading 186 strikeouts.  He was a consensus top 70 prospect in the game and pitched well for us in the minors prior to TJS despite stuff backing up some.  If this kid’s velocity picks up a tick, he has a chance to be a legit #3.  No idea when he’ll be ready and he probably gets some seasoning in AAA when that time comes, but he’s a guy we’ll need to make room for at some point.

And then you have the three top 100 prospects in Schultz, Smith, & McDougal who all could or should arrive this year.  Starting with Schultz, who reached AAA last year and has as high of a ceiling as any LHP prospect in baseball.  If can get past his knee issues and fix some mechanical stuff, he could be pushing for a spot very quickly.  Smith wasn’t perfect last year, but made 20 starts at AA and followed that up with a great AFL stint.  If the command can be harnessed, he will pushing for a job by the 2H of the year.  Finally, you got McDougal who pitched 113 innings and was very fucking good in AA.  I’d argue he may be the most major league ready of the three if his AA command is here to stay and I see a non zero chance he could force his way into an OD rotation spot.

[WestEddy]

8 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You mentioned an awful lot of good things happening with the hitting and starting and relief pitching. 

If you already think the Sox are capable of 75 wins with only some of those things happening how is it they're barely above . 500 with a bunch of other good things happening ? 

I don't understand this question. Status quo, I think they're at 70 wins. A better bullpen and some growth in a few key players nudges them towards the middle 70s. A couple of guys play out of their heads, and the rest of the good stuff happens, they're challenging .500. 

The point of my post was to lay out that a ton of good things have to break right for this team to be .500. Magic fantasy must ensue for the Sox to win the division or pick off a wild card slot. 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

You and your damn transparent copy / paste!  🤣

Fucking A…just fixed it.

[WestEddy]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

As I look where the projected OD roster stands right now, the biggest immediate “need” would be the rotation.  Shane Smith is the only guy who is arguably a long-term rotation staple.  Looking at his performance last year and assuming some improvement, I think he has the potential to be a #3 SP on a championship level team.  For 2026, he’s the automatic #1 and should last the season in the rotation.

After Smith things get dicey real fast.  Martin has been very mediocre in his major league career and his strikeout stuff regressed significantly last year.  If he can’t find an out pitch, his longevity in the rotation could be short lived.  Kay is semi interesting, but also a complete wild card.  He should be able to provide innings, but will they be any good?  If not, he could see himself in the bullpen by the 2H.

As for the last two spots, I think one of the jobs is Burke’s to lose.  I think it’s very important to remind people that this kid god better as the season progressed and was able to be fairly productive by the end of the season despite hit slider going completely backwards last year.  If that one pitch returns to form and we see the guy who flashed at the end of 2024, I think we’re talking a guy with #3 potential.

So to circle back to the original point, the #5 spot right now is a massive hole.  If we really want to give ourselves the best chance to surprise next year, we should go out and add a veteran SP.  There are plenty of free agents who will only get one or two year deals that could potentially work for us.  That being said, is signing a vet the right move to make with a long-term vision in mind?

IMO, I think there is a case to be made to stick with what we have.  I 100% get the adage you can never have enough pitching and I’d certainly feel differently if this team was one hole away from being serious contenders.  And I’m sure the baseball gods will curse us with multiple injuries in camp for posting this.  However, I simply like the young arms we have and want to ensure there is ample runway for them.

What’s changed my tune here a bit is Vasil.  I always felt that he should be a guy to open the season in the rotation and be given a short-term audition.  If he fails, he goes back to a bulk reliever role and another young arm takes his spot.  The other addition that changes the calculus some is Sandlin.  They clearly like the kid given the financial risk they assumed to get him.  I assume he’ll start the year in AAA for some seasoning, but think he could be ready by May to replace the weakest link.

But beyond just those two is a sizable list of pitching.  People rip the Cease trade and rightly so, but the centerpiece of that trade is still alive & hopefully kicking for the Sox soon enough.  This is a kid that was Minor League Pitcher of the Year back in 2023 with a minors leading 186 strikeouts.  He was a consensus top 70 prospect in the game and pitched well for us in the minors prior to TJS despite stuff backing up some.  If this kid’s velocity picks up a tick, he has a chance to be a legit #3.  No idea when he’ll be ready and he probably gets some seasoning in AAA when that time comes, but he’s a guy we’ll need to make room for at some point.

And then you have the three top 100 prospects in Schultz, Smith, & McDougal who all could or should arrive this year.  Starting with Schultz, who reached AAA last year and has as high of a ceiling as any LHP prospect in baseball.  If can get past his knee issues and fix some mechanical stuff, he could be pushing for a spot very quickly.  Smith wasn’t perfect last year, but made 20 starts at AA and followed that up with a great AFL stint.  If the command can be harnessed, he will pushing for a job by the 2H of the year.  Finally, you got McDougal who pitched 113 innings and was very fucking good in AA.  I’d argue he may be the most major league ready of the three if his AA command is here to stay and I see a non zero chance he could force his way into an OD rotation spot.

1) I agree that Shane Smith and Burke are the two guys who bear watching, going forward. 
2) Kay and Davis Martin are place holders where, if the team is middling in July, you can move them to make room for Sandlin, McDougal, Schultz or Thorpe.
3) McDougal, Schultz and Hagen Smith should all be challenging for a rotation spot some time this season. Thorpe will be back. Mason Adams exists. Getz has hinted that Sandlin is going to get every chance at promotion. 
4) The FA market has yet to shake out, and I believe Getz is waiting for Bassitt, Littel or Canning (or reasonable facsimile) to fall to them cheap, and then he's done. 
5) Looking at 2027, Schultz, McDougal, Shane Smith, Hagen Smith, Taylor, Burke, Sandlin, Thorpe, Oppor, Mason Adams looks like a good problem to have on your hands. 

[WhiteSox2023]

18 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I don't understand this question. Status quo, I think they're at 70 wins. A better bullpen and some growth in a few key players nudges them towards the middle 70s. A couple of guys play out of their heads, and the rest of the good stuff happens, they're challenging .500. 

The point of my post was to lay out that a ton of good things have to break right for this team to be .500. Magic fantasy must ensue for the Sox to win the division or pick off a wild card slot. 

I think the bullpen should be a lot better.  Better acquisitions this offseason and probably just some dumb luck since it’s been so bad lately and bullpens are typically flukey anyways.

I still think the rotation is a bit scary.

Edited February 7 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think the bullpen should be a lot better.  Better acquisitions this offseason and probably just some dumb luck since it’s been so bad lately and bullpens are typically flukey anyways.

The bullpen is key. As some point out, it's pretty much the same team as last year. Hays replaces Tauchman, and Acuña may cancel out any gains Murakami brings. Maybe if Getz signs Zach Littell, then you're considering getting out of last place. But they definitely need a few guys to start producing at a 3+ WAR clip (maybe 4?) to start dreaming. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

I don't understand this question. Status quo, I think they're at 70 wins. A better bullpen and some growth in a few key players nudges them towards the middle 70s. A couple of guys play out of their heads, and the rest of the good stuff happens, they're challenging .500. 

The point of my post was to lay out that a ton of good things have to break right for this team to be .500. Magic fantasy must ensue for the Sox to win the division or pick off a wild card slot. 

 I think I didnt make myself clear and it was a minor point of contention any . 

But in a previous post you put your own personal O/U at 75 wins. Btw best to use a number like 74.5 so you don't have any ties. But regardless . I take that 75 to mean that it's your prediction of the number of wins all things good or bad being equal so that you try to get an equal amount of bets on each side of the number. Thats almost 10 wins above the Vegas line of 65.5 so you are more bullish on the Sox than bookies are by a large margin. But you just lowered it to 70 wins so I took that 75 win total that was already bullish all things being equal and figured that now you were talking about extra extra bullish the win total would be significantly over .500 maybe 85-90 wins. Sox would have a lot more, HRs better starting pitching , higher OBP and better relief pitching for full seasons of guys instead of 2/3 , 1/2 or whatever. Maybe we just have a different definition of what the O/U means. Apparently you'd bet the over in Vegas but bet the under in your own O/U ? 

Edited February 7 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WBWSF]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Update after latest moves / news:

Lineup:

• 1B: Murakami (L)
• 2B: Meidroth (R)
• SS: C. Montgomery (L)
• 3B: Vargas (R)
• LF: Baldwin (S)
• CF: Acuña (R)
• RF: Hays (R)
• DH: Quero (S)
• CA: Teel (L)

Bench:

• BC: Lee (R)
• IF: Sosa (R)
• OF: Pereira (R)
• OF: Benintendi (L)

Rotation:

1. Smith (R)
2. Martin (R)
3. Kay (L)
4. Burke (R)
5. Vasil (R)

Bullpen:

• CL: Dominguez (R)
• SU: Taylor (R)
• SU: Leasure (R)
• MR: Hicks (R)
• MR: Newcomb (L)
• MR: Gonzalez (R)
• MR: Gilbert (L)
• LR: Paez (R)

DFA’d or Returned:

• IF: Mead (R) 
• OF: Hill (R)
• RP: Alberto (R)

40 Man Roster Depth:

• IF: Murray (R)
• OF: Peters (L)
• SP: Sandlin (R)
• SP: Cannon (R)
• SP: Davitt (R)
• SP: Thorpe (R)
• SP: Bush (L)
• SP: McDougal (R)
• SP: Murphy (L)
• RP: Eisert (L)
• RP: Berroa (R)

Non 40 Reinforcements:

• CA: Romo (R)
• IF: Antonacci (L)
• IF: Bergolla (L)
• OF: Montgomery (L)
• OF: Kelenic (L)
• SP: Schultz (L)
• SP: Smith (L)
• SP: Adams (R)
• RP: Franklin (R)
• RP: Davis (R)
• RP: Coffey (R)
• RP: Peoples (R)
• RP: Borucki (L)
• RP: Schweitzer (L)

The more I look at this roster the more I'm convinced that 2026 is going to be a great season for the White Sox!!!!

[SoxBlanco]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Finally, you got McDougal who pitched 113 innings and was very fucking good in AA.  I’d argue he may be the most major league ready of the three if his AA command is here to stay and I see a non zero chance he could force his way into an OD rotation spot.

Stupid question here, but why did the phrase “non zero chance” become so popular over the last handful of years? I don’t even understand it. I would just say “there’s a chance he could force his way into an OD rotation spot”.

What does the “non zero” part add to it? Doesn’t “a chance” already imply that it’s non zero? If there was no chance, I wouldn’t say there’s a chance. 

And @Chicago White Sox, this is not meant to call you out in any way. Not sure why I’m choosing to ask now, but I’ve always wondered about that. 

[WhiteSox2023]

16 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

The more I look at this roster the more I'm convinced that 2026 is going to be a great season for the White Sox!!!!

Tra La Tra La!!!

[WestEddy]

40 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 I think I didnt make myself clear and it was a minor point of contention any . 

But in a previous post you put your own personal O/U at 75 wins. Btw best to use a number like 74.5 so you don't have any ties. But regardless . I take that 75 to mean that it's your prediction of the number of wins all things good or bad being equal so that you try to get an equal amount of bets on each side of the number. Thats almost 10 wins above the Vegas line of 65.5 so you are more bullish on the Sox than bookies are by a large margin. But you just lowered it to 70 wins so I took that 75 win total that was already bullish all things being equal and figured that now you were talking about extra extra bullish the win total would be significantly over .500 maybe 85-90 wins. Sox would have a lot more, HRs better starting pitching , higher OBP and better relief pitching for full seasons of guys instead of 2/3 , 1/2 or whatever. Maybe we just have a different definition of what the O/U means. Apparently you'd bet the over in Vegas but bet the under in your own O/U ? 

It's my own personal O/U, meaning that I think the range of options for this team land around 75 wins. I keep laying out my thinking, in that the team, as assembled, is a 70-win team. However, I do believe...

1) Murakami holds his own at 1B to the tune of about 1.5-2 WAR. 
2) Meidroth either improves on his 84 OPS+, or Sosa/Antonacci replace him at some point
3) Colson maintains, and has his 3-3.5 WAR season
4) Vargas does break out and improves upon his .767 OPS after his 4/23 hand job
5) Teel goes nuts and leads the offense in WAR
6) Baldwin becomes the 2nd half player he was, and establishes himself as an OF
7) Acuña puts up the same 1.4 WAR as Robert (or thereabouts)
😎 Hays/Kelenic/Pereira don't embarass themselves (meaning the group puts up 0.8-1.2 WAR)
9) Rotation is fine, settling into the strongest 5 around the ASB - exceeds 10 WAR
10) bullpen is solidified, hold down leads

All of this (that is me wishcasting) happens and catapults them to 75 wins. Maybe one or two of these don't happen, and they wind up 71-74. Maybe Colson or Murakami go ape, and they're 76-79. I don't think any of this is insane, magic beans fantasy. 

Quote

Apparently you'd bet the over in Vegas but bet the under in your own O/U ? 

Yes. I think they blow away 64.5. Everything going right, I think they scratch and claw to 75. 

Edited February 7 by WestEddy
answered last question

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

The bullpen is key. As some point out, it's pretty much the same team as last year. Hays replaces Tauchman, and Acuña may cancel out any gains Murakami brings. Maybe if Getz signs Zach Littell, then you're considering getting out of last place. But they definitely need a few guys to start producing at a 3+ WAR clip (maybe 4?) to start dreaming. 

Murakami isnt likely to accumulate too much WAR but 40 HRs would be great. Maybe 1.5 - 2 WAR .I don't see how Acuna could cancel it out. He should be like Robert in that his defense and baserunning nets him a some WAR . I doubt he'll  be a negative WAR player. 

Berroa is already throwing and there's some minor indication that he hit 102 already if you saw the post from @Autumn Dreamin. No one's said he could ready opening day. That seems ambitious but if he really is throwing that hard already maybe it's not so ambitious. But who knows if that clip of him throwing and the little comic character Berroa with a voice bubble with 102 in it  in the bottom left corner was just a joke. 

Edited February 7 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WestEddy]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Murakami isnt likely to accumulate too much WAR with 40 HRs would be great. I don't see how Acuna could cancel it out. He should be like Robert in that his defense and baserunning nets him a some WAR . I doubt he'll  be a negative WAR player. 

Berroa is already throwing and there's some minor indication that he hit 102 already if you saw the post from @Autumn Dreamin. No ones said he could ready opening day. That seems ambition but if he really is throwing that hard already maybe its not so ambitious. But who knows if that clip of him throwing and the little comic character Berroa with a voice bubble with 102 in it was just a joke. 

The White Sox got a little over 2 WAR (2.3) from the CF group in 2025. I don't think Acuña does that, which whittles into Murakami's gain (1.5 I see Murakami doing over the -0.4 last year's group did). So, no, I don't think Acuña will be replacement level, but he's got his work cut out for him to give us what Robert did, alone, last year. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The White Sox got a little over 2 WAR (2.3) from the CF group in 2025. I don't think Acuña does that, which whittles into Murakami's gain (1.5 I see Murakami doing over the -0.4 last year's group did). So, no, I don't think Acuña will be replacement level, but he's got his work cut out for him to give us what Robert did, alone, last year. 

But Baldwin you project for some kind of offensive and defensive breakout so dont you think some of his OF time comes in CF to add to the cumulative WAR total ? 

Edited February 7 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WestEddy]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But Baldwin you project for some kind of offensive and defensive breakout so dont you think some of his OF time comes in CF to add to the cumulative WAR total ? 

Sure. It's imprecise, just giving examples of where I think we'll see improvement. Acuña's going to struggle to put up offense, so if he plays 140, he's going to bring his substandard offense to 2B, RF, wherever he plays when Baldwin's in CF. I think he'll improve on last year's 64 OPS+, but not better than Robert's 84. 

[tray]

On 2/7/2026 at 2:09 PM, WestEddy said:

Sure. It's imprecise, just giving examples of where I think we'll see improvement. Acuña's going to struggle to put up offense, so if he plays 140, he's going to bring his substandard offense to 2B, RF, wherever he plays when Baldwin's in CF. I think he'll improve on last year's 64 OPS+, but not better than Robert's 84. 

Yea, Acuna's offensive numbers are not that impressive, but let's give him a chance this Spring. He is still a young kid. 

[WestEddy]

I think beyond trades, injuries or upsets, you're looking at:

C - Teel, Quero
IF - Murakami, Meidroth, Montgomery, Vargas
OF - Benintendi, Hays, Acuña, Pereira
Bench - Sosa, Baldwin

That leaves one slot for Korey Lee, if they want to DH Teel and Quero, or maybe another OF, like Hill or Peters. Maybe Tanner Murray has a shot as the strongest backup SS with a good offensive spring? 

I suppose they could also play around with Baldwin's option, but he's earned a long look in the bigs. 

[ptatc]

11 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I think beyond trades, injuries or upsets, you're looking at:

C - Teel, Quero
IF - Murakami, Meidroth, Montgomery, Vargas
OF - Benintendi, Hays, Acuña, Pereira
Bench - Sosa, Baldwin

That leaves one slot for Korey Lee, if they want to DH Teel and Quero, or maybe another OF, like Hill or Peters. Maybe Tanner Murray has a shot as the strongest backup SS with a good offensive spring? 

I suppose they could also play around with Baldwin's option, but he's earned a long look in the bigs. 

I think Baldwin gets sent down as he has options. They'll evaluate guys like perriera or selenium to start the season.

[WestEddy]

22 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think Baldwin gets sent down as he has options. They'll evaluate guys like perriera or selenium to start the season.

Who's selenium?