OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The "depth" has bigger names than in the past, but I am not sure it is any better.  It's a lot of guys who have experienced major league failure, and we are apparently hoping that our dev team is better than places like NYM, Tampa, NYY, ATL, etc and can somehow save these guys from their current  history.  I want to see it actually happen before I start penciling in these guys.  Competing with the Twins to not finish last feels about right so far.

Kelenic Vargas Acuna Pereira Mead Sosa and Baldwin all fit this profile to one degree or another.

Ofc 29 teams basically bet against Murakami as well, or at least couldn't afford to take the risk of playing him everyday as a contender out of the gate.

 

Mune's still the most exciting player on the team though, at least IMO.

He's certainly the biggest story on a daily basis.  That and the emerging Cholowsky/Lebron duel.

Edited 1 hour ago by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If he was a Cardinal prospect that came out of virtually nowhere...wasn't highly touted or drafted highly and had that utility label ceiling placed upon him from the very beginning, sure.

They had that track record of production for decades.

Or the Rays, for example.  Masters of squeezing surplus value out of the Baldwin profile.

 

With the White Sox, he's going to have to prove it.

He's also going to have to beat out Kelenic/Pereira and also demonstrate at least IMPROVING defense in RF.

 

 

 

"Track record for decades" is deflection. They have a development staff in place now that had nothing to do with the mis-development of Jason Dellaero and Scott Ruffcorn. Not sure how development in the 1980s impacts anything going on in Arizona this month.

That said, I don't care about the Cardinals or Rays. Both have fallen on a lull, and maybe we shouldn't talk about them until they have their systems humming again?

Nobody's saying that Baldwin should have his eventual results erased and .300/.400/.500 written into his stat line at the end of the season. Of course the games need to be played. But if we're going to "calm down" and wait until the Sox develop players for 30 years before we can speculate, maybe that goes for assuming failure based on what happened "decades ago". 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

"Track record for decades" is deflection. They have a development staff in place now that had nothing to do with the mis-development of Jason Dellaero and Scott Ruffcorn. Not sure how development in the 1980s impacts anything going on in Arizona this month.

That said, I don't care about the Cardinals or Rays. Both have fallen on a lull, and maybe we shouldn't talk about them until they have their systems humming again?

Nobody's saying that Baldwin should have his eventual results erased and .300/.400/.500 written into his stat line at the end of the season. Of course the games need to be played. But if we're going to "calm down" and wait until the Sox develop players for 30 years before we can speculate, maybe that goes for assuming failure based on what happened "decades ago". 

Fine let's do this.

LF automatically goes to Minn, Larnach

CF Buxton/Jenkins over Acuna...biggest difference between two teams

RF  Wallner, see LF until proven otherwise

Braden=E.Rodriguez

3B Lewis/Vargas slight advantage due to Lewis' actual production but huge health concerns

*SS C.Montgomery over Lee/Culpepper

2B L.Keaschall over Meidroth

*1B Murakami over Josh Bell

C Jeffers/Tait even with Teel/Quero

*DH Benintendi/Sosa over Caratini

 

So Sox 3, Twins 6

You can argue 3B and C, it's still 5-4 Twins because of the outfield.

You could probably even argue against Keaschall as well, but every scout will take hitting potential/upside here.

 

Ryan Ober SWR T.Bradley Matthews

Even without Lopez, how is the Sox current projected starting rotation better?

Sox have the bullpen advantage, at least on paper.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

These 75-81 win total protection getting thrown around now are based on absolutely everything going right.

Beyond almost everything going the opposite direction in 2023-24, that just doesn't happen (on the positive side) more than once a decade or two, at least in Sox history.

Injury "luck" alone is something that everyone knows will take a massive toll on mlb and milb pitching staffs. 

The team currently has a ton of names/depth to throw at the rotation and a much better bullpen than recently, but let's at least finish ahead of the Twins before getting too crazy...

Disagree on " almost everything " going right to  for that win total. I'd more likely say reasonable forward progression with non devastating injuries to their 2 biggest power bats. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Disagree on " almost everything " going right to  for that win total. I'd more likely say reasonable forward progression with non devastating injuries to their 2 biggest power bats. 

Remember, other than M.Perez, the bulk of their starting staff was relatively healthy last year.

The injuries were largely to minor league depth pieces like Adams Thorpe Bush Larson Batista, etc.

You can argue that Thorpe had at least a 50/50 shot at the rotation, I guess.

[WestEddy]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Fine let's do this.

LF automatically goes to Minn, Larnach

CF Buxton/Jenkins over Acuna...biggest difference between two teams

RF  Wallner, see LF until proven otherwise

Braden=E.Rodriguez

3B Lewis/Vargas slight advantage due to Lewis' actual production but huge health concerns

*SS C.Montgomery over Lee/Culpepper

2B L.Keaschall over Meidroth

*1B Murakami over Josh Bell

C Jeffers/Tait even with Teel/Quero

*DH Benintendi/Sosa over Caratini

 

So Sox 3, Twins 6

You can argue 3B and C, it's still 5-4 Twins because of the outfield.

You could probably even argue against Keaschall as well, but every scout will take hitting potential/upside here.

 

Ryan Ober SWR T.Bradley Matthews

Even without Lopez, how is the Sox current projected starting rotation better?

Sox have the bullpen advantage, at least on paper.

What are you even comparing? Sox are still rebuilding and the Twins seem to be teetering on a complete teardown. Twins will most likely be trading a bunch of those guys this July. I'm not sure how assuming Baldwin would produce at a level he just did for two months in the bigs is crazy talk, but writing an 18-year-old A-ball catcher (Tait) into a lineup and grading him over two 2nd year catchers is perfectly reasonable. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

What are you even comparing? Sox are still rebuilding and the Twins seem to be teetering on a complete teardown. Twins will most likely be trading a bunch of those guys this July. I'm not sure how assuming Baldwin would produce at a level he just did for two months in the bigs is crazy talk, but writing an 18-year-old A-ball catcher (Tait) into a lineup and grading him over two 2nd year catchers is perfectly reasonable. 

Who are they LIKELY to trade, other than Jeffers?

Larnach or Wallner?  Lewis?

Fine, we can make it 5-4 Twins.

 

The rebuilding has already happened with their pen.

Ryan is also likely to get traded due to his perceived value to every contender, and more reasonable salary.

 

Jeffers for now is still on their roster, and Teel/Quero can't play everyday with the current roster composition.

Edited 53 minutes ago by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Remember, other than M.Perez, the bulk of their starting staff was relatively healthy last year.

The injuries were largely to minor league depth pieces like Adams Thorpe Bush Larson Batista, etc.

You can argue that Thorpe had at least a 50/50 shot at the rotation, I guess.

The team wasn't buoyed by pitcher health. Beyond Houser and a very short stretch by Civale, Smith was the stand-out, albeit with a rough stretch in the middle, and Davis Martin got close to major league average production. If a couple of these guys get more consistent, you have a better staff. If you don't, they're probably replaced by better options. 

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Who are they LIKELY to trade, other than Jeffers?

Buxton, Bell. If Kelenic with 3+ years of control is surely trade fodder, then Larnach with 2 years of control must be, right?

I'm not sure what you're even scoring, and how it matters. That makes for a nice pre-series writeup, but the games are played on the field. I don't see how comparing position players against each other affects the eventual White Sox win total. You think 75 wins means nothing at all went wrong all year. I've laid out multiple times how I feel that just a better bullpen and a little growth that outpaces the regression could get the team into the mid-upper 70s in wins. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Remember, other than M.Perez, the bulk of their starting staff was relatively healthy last year.

The injuries were largely to minor league depth pieces like Adams Thorpe Bush Larson Batista, etc.

You can argue that Thorpe had at least a 50/50 shot at the rotation, I guess.

When you hyperolize a below .500 record happening when " almost everything goes right" you cant win that argument. 

 Almost everything going right means almost everyone with good health  and almost everyone being spectacular including almost all our top prospects . To me that means 100+ wins and " almost everything going"  right in the playoffs which means a World Series win. Hell lets take " almost everything going right" to its logical conclusion 161-1 and undefeated in the playoffs since  1 loss is " almost everything"  going right. 😁

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Buxton, Bell. If Kelenic with 3+ years of control is surely trade fodder, then Larnach with 2 years of control must be, right?

I'm not sure what you're even scoring, and how it matters. That makes for a nice pre-series writeup, but the games are played on the field. I don't see how comparing position players against each other affects the eventual White Sox win total. You think 75 wins means nothing at all went wrong all year. I've laid out multiple times how I feel that just a better bullpen and a little growth that outpaces the regression could get the team into the mid-upper 70s in wins. 

By that argument, Murakami will be gone if he's a stud, too...barring something dramatic happening to JR. 

Ishbia would have to go against his own financial interests to intervene unless he's willing to totally buy into the "NPB connection strategy."

Edited 41 minutes ago by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

When you hyperolize a below .500 record happening when " almost everything goes right" you cant win that argument. 

 Almost everything going right means almost everyone with good health  and almost everyone being spectacular including almost all our top prospects . To me that means 100+ wins and " almost everything going"  right in the playoffs which means a World Series win. Hell lets take " almost everything going right" to its logical conclusion 161-1 and undefeated in the playoffs since  1 loss is " almost everything"  going right. 😁

See 2005.

[WestEddy]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

By that argument, Murakami will be gone if he's a stud, too...barring something dramatic happening to JR. 

Ishbia would have to go against his own financial interests to intervene unless he's willing to totally buy into the "NPB connection strategy."

No. You argue that everybody on the Sox is trade fodder, but guys with less control on the Twins aren't. 

"We know how Reinsdorf operates" and "decades of precedent" are meaningless code for "I have no argument, so I'll keep deflecting". 

The point, which you seem to want to obscure, is the Sox don't have to experience unprecedented luck in order to get their win total into the mid-70s. 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

, but guys with less control on the Twins aren't. 

"We know how Reinsdorf operates" and "decades of precedent" are meaningless code for "I have no argument, so I'll keep deflecting". 

The point, which you seem to want to obscure, is the Sox don't have to experience unprecedented luck in order to get their win total into the mid-70s. 

"No. You argue that everybody on the Sox is trade fodder."

Anyone with three or less years of control...certainly two, qualifies.

Do they not?

Never wrote about trading Colson Teel Braden Smiths etc.

 

There are a lot of SoxTalk posters that would like time trade Quero or Sosa though.

Not sure how that's everyone on the roster, either.

(Surprised you didn't bring up Hays here as well...as he should be traded if he has a good first half.)

 

By the way, Em.Rodriguez and Abel looking good for Minnesota today against DET.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

See 2005.

Now you understand. Maybe choose your words more carefully next time you say it'll take almost everything going right to win 75-81 games. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Now you understand. Maybe choose your words more carefully next time you say it'll take almost everything going right to win 75-81 games. 

Maybe they could at least spell Connor correctly on the lineup card...nice to see Acuna not listed as S/LH, though.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

"No. You argue that everybody on the Sox is trade fodder."

Anyone with three or less years of control...certainly two, qualifies.

Do they not?

Never wrote about trading Colson Teel Braden Smiths etc.

 

There are a lot of SoxTalk posters that would like time trade Quero or Sosa though.

Not sure how that's everyone on the roster, either.

(Surprised you didn't bring up Hays here as well...as he should be traded if he has a good first half.)

 

By the way, Em.Rodriguez and Abel looking good for Minnesota today against DET.

The team isn't run by a consortium of commenters. The Sox have a small bunch of 2-year contracts that could roll over into next year if this team plays around .500 ball.