1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Or it reached its limits against close to elite pitching...wellx maybe not Griffin, although even he made the All Star team with WSH first half.

I loved their approach against Messick (both times) and Williams, the first time they faced him.

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or it reached its limits against close to elite pitching...wellx maybe not Griffin, although even he made the All Star team with WSH first half.

I don't think the Guardians threw many elite arms at us in game 3 and we still struck out 19 times.

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I never stated a preference.

I just pointed that that the only result of striking out less is not double plays. In fact, it is still one of the lowest percentage outcomes in the world of potential outcomes.

I would also add that you could reduce GIDP by putting our faster runners in motion on straight steals or hit and runs whenever feasible.

6 hours ago, hankchifan said:

I would also add that you could reduce GIDP by putting our faster runners in motion on straight steals or hit and runs whenever feasible.

Here's what I actually wonder. I understand that in modern runs expected parlance, the Sox are going the "right" thing by playing for the big inning in swinging for the fences constantly. But also hearing that Murakami had a 45% whiff rate against 96 plus fastball, and Colson had 48%, it gets me thinking about what actually goes into that number, along with average and median expectations. Keep in mind an "expected" total is an average. All of those zero run innings are picked up by the outlier 10 run inning that is generated once in a blue moon when everything works. Think of it this way. If my distribution looks like 0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/0/10, versus 0/1/0/1/2/0/3/0/1/0, my expected run total is better in the first scenario, but I am giving myself a better chance to win more games in the last scenario. Obviously that is very skewed on purpose, but you kind of get the point. I do wonder about distribution of runs, and how we might revisit this as something more of a "selective" aggression versus all gas and no breaks.

Just thinking about some of the base clogging Sox teams in the past that would take 3 hits to get a runner home from 1st base.

Edited 9 hours ago9 hr by Falstaff

Why doesn't every player on the team have a 2-strike approach instead of swing from their heels?

Edited 9 hours ago9 hr by Falstaff
typo

1 hour ago, Falstaff said:

Why doesn't every player on the team have a 2-strike approach instead of swing from their heels?

https://www.mlb.com/news/2026-brewers-offense-what-is-working

because it's not taught across the system

it works for MIL and CLE because they have mostly line drive and not power hitters...and also have more team speed

if you make contact on the ground like Braden, without high EV and combine it with low sprint speed...not so good

How and where can I see what Colson's Whiff% is against 96+mph fastballs? Is there a way to see what that looks like in the first half vs second half? Playing around with Statcast I am not finding that option.

15 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

How and where can I see what Colson's Whiff% is against 96+mph fastballs? Is there a way to see what that looks like in the first half vs second half? Playing around with Statcast I am not finding that option.

Especially above the belt or elevated fastballs

Killed Mune Benintendi and Braden, too

15 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

How and where can I see what Colson's Whiff% is against 96+mph fastballs? Is there a way to see what that looks like in the first half vs second half? Playing around with Statcast I am not finding that option.

The link I posted with Foul Territory talking with Josh Nelson has a lot of the info you are looking for. Nelson broke down the strikeouts against high speed fastballs.

18 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The link I posted with Foul Territory talking with Josh Nelson has a lot of the info you are looking for. Nelson broke down the strikeouts against high speed fastballs.

Thanks, how did he get that info? I guess I can reach out to him on twitter. I am curious to see what his 2025 and early 2026 look like prior to his back spasms.
I am not convinced Colson ever got back to 100% and was either playing through it or was mentally aware of it. Prior to the spasms, his K% was 29 as it was in 2025. I know he said he was perfectly healthy and his issues stemmed from a mental lapse, but I am not sure I believe it.

30 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Thanks, how did he get that info? I guess I can reach out to him on twitter. I am curious to see what his 2025 and early 2026 look like prior to his back spasms.
I am not convinced Colson ever got back to 100% and was either playing through it or was mentally aware of it. Prior to the spasms, his K% was 29 as it was in 2025. I know he said he was perfectly healthy and his issues stemmed from a mental lapse, but I am not sure I believe it.

I think it might have caused him to change his swing. Seemed to me his was lunging towards the plate more this year, which caused him to get under fastballs high and outside and then unable to change his bat path on low and in sliders

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

Thanks, how did he get that info? I guess I can reach out to him on twitter. I am curious to see what his 2025 and early 2026 look like prior to his back spasms.
I am not convinced Colson ever got back to 100% and was either playing through it or was mentally aware of it. Prior to the spasms, his K% was 29 as it was in 2025. I know he said he was perfectly healthy and his issues stemmed from a mental lapse, but I am not sure I believe it.

Yes, it would be nice to know that the Montgomery problems were explained by injury, but also that would be another year ruined by this injury which also doesn't bode well going forward for expectations for his future health.

56 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think it might have caused him to change his swing. Seemed to me his was lunging towards the plate more this year, which caused him to get under fastballs high and outside and then unable to change his bat path on low and in sliders

If you look at swing length it definitely changed. 7.8 to 8.1. How much that affects K% i dont know, but it does make sense if velocity was an issue especially up in the upper third of the strike zone.

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2026-brewers-offense-what-is-working

because it's not taught across the system

it works for MIL and CLE because they have mostly line drive and not power hitters...and also have more team speed

if you make contact on the ground like Braden, without high EV and combine it with low sprint speed...not so good

It's not uncommon for teams to have multiple relievers throwing 100mph. It would be nice for the high K Sox batters to have a back up plan.

4 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Thanks, how did he get that info? I guess I can reach out to him on twitter. I am curious to see what his 2025 and early 2026 look like prior to his back spasms.
I am not convinced Colson ever got back to 100% and was either playing through it or was mentally aware of it. Prior to the spasms, his K% was 29 as it was in 2025. I know he said he was perfectly healthy and his issues stemmed from a mental lapse, but I am not sure I believe it.

Very interesting. Not sure if you can easily cure either problem though.

I just saw this pop up on TikTok. AI is out of control.

https://www.tt.site/t/ZTyTFA3uy/