Phil Rogers at it again

[Pale Hose Jon]

Detour Big Hurt to Dodgertown

Phil Rogers

 

February 23, 2004

 

TUCSON, Ariz. -- If Frank Thomas is the sightseeing type, he could be admiring the Hoover Dam right about now. He could be rehearsing his opening remarks somewhere along Interstate 10 between Las Vegas and southern Arizona.

 

Whether Thomas sees America or the slot machines at the Vegas airport, the clock is ticking fast on a 15th season in his love-hate relationship with the White Sox. He's due Wednesday at the Sox's complex at Tucson Electric Park.

 

Here's hoping that general manager Ken Williams will give Thomas a last-minute change of plans, sending him to Vero Beach, Fla., instead.

 

Williams has insisted all winter that he will not make a trade just to dump a salary. He has said that any deal he makes will have to make the Sox better immediately. But if new Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt and GM Paul DePodesta want to add Thomas to a hurting lineup, Williams should find a way to close the deal.

 

He probably can forget acquiring a package that includes Odalis Perez, Guillermo Mota and top pitching prospects like Edwin Jackson or Greg Miller. But if the Dodgers would part with one of their best young arms—Jackson, Miller or Joel Hanrahan—and either 20-year-old center fielder Franklin Gutierrez or 19-year-old first baseman James Loney, Williams should close the books on the best hitter in Sox history.

 

This isn't about whether Ozzie Guillen can handle Thomas and his mood swings. It's about whether he should have to.

 

There's no question that Guillen made a mistake when he took verbal shots at his former teammate during the news conference announcing his hiring as manager. At the very least, he owed Thomas a telephone call before pointing to him as the primary reason for the Sox's recent underachievement.

 

But look at Thomas' behavior over the winter. He's well within his rights to decline interview requests. But it's another thing not to return phone calls from his bosses, as Thomas did with Williams and Guillen.

 

Then there was the warm and fuzzy story Mark Buehrle shared about the time he spent with Thomas. He bumped into him in late January at a Vegas casino.

 

There must have been a hot hand at the table because Thomas didn't mention going for a bite to eat or even a drink.

 

"I talked to him for about 10 minutes and got out of there," Buehrle said. "He was gambling, and I didn't want to bother him."

 

If part of Albert Belle were going to rub off on Thomas during their two seasons together, you'd have hoped it would have been his ferocious approach to hitting, not his social skills.

 

It's unclear whether Williams and DePodesta have resumed the trade talks that had gone on all winter with Dan Evans, who was the Dodgers' GM until Feb. 16. But this is a natural fit, and now—before Thomas walks in the door—is the time to make a trade happen.

 

Guillen's arrival has lightened the mood around camp considerably, as everyone from Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf to center fielder Aaron Rowand has noted. Guillen's goal is for his team to "smile" and play the game the right way.

 

"We're going to play fundamentally sound baseball," Reinsdorf said.

 

Thomas hit with authority in 2003, announcing his intentions to regain his power and delivering 42 home runs, but he also cost the Sox at least one game with his baserunning, as he seems to every year.

 

Thomas hits better when he plays first base, but he always has been an accident waiting to happen in the field. He joins Paul Konerko to give the Sox two base-cloggers in the middle of a lineup overly weighted toward right-handed hitters.

 

Yes, trading him would be painful. He still can be one terrific hitter, and giving him up now would be scary for a lineup that averaged only 4.1 runs a game in the first half of 2003 and already has question marks in Rowand and second baseman Willie Harris.

 

Thomas may have been as much of a symptom of what has ailed the Sox as the cause. He generally has been harmless in the clubhouse. But his selfish, statistics-oriented approach was more acceptable when he was 25, not at 35. His legacy in the organization makes him the guy others look to, and he never has accepted the additional responsibility.

 

Reinsdorf had a chance to sever the relationship two years ago. But rather than exercise the full authority of the so-called diminished-skills clause in Thomas' unusual contract, he offered a new deal that paid Thomas $5 million last year and $6 million this year.

 

If Thomas appreciates this as another example of Reinsdorf's characteristic loyalty, he doesn't show it. He tells Chicago reporters he wants to end his career with the White Sox, but it sounded like he was speaking the truth last September in an interview with the Minneapolis-Star Tribune.

 

"I wouldn't say staying is a priority," he said. "Some of the greatest players in this game have changed teams."

 

Given Carlos Lee's impatience at the plate (despite those career highs set in 2003, he was a better hitter in '02) and Konerko's dive from .304 to .234, trading Thomas would be a risk. But the potential benefits make it worthwhile.

 

Among those benefits are:

 

More budget room to sign Magglio Ordonez to a long-term deal (Thomas is guaranteed $11.5 million after this season).

 

More maneuverability for Guillen, who could rotate the designated hitter spot among Jose Valentin, Lee and others.

 

The chance to take a long look at Joe Borchard or get another left-handed hitter, possibly rookie Jeremy Reed or journeyman Ross Gload, into the lineup.

 

Oh, yes, there's one other benefit. For three straight years, the Sox have failed to capture a winnable division. It's time to change more than just the manager.

Copyright © 2004, The Chicago Tribune

[CSF]

A day late and a dollar short. Will the Cubune ever learn.

[Goldmember]

i used to think rogers was ok. :puke

[YASNY]

Rogers has some valid points and concerns. I don't necessarily agree with his solution, but it's his opinion. A lot of a columnists material is based only on opinion. There are not any rumors mentioned in this column.

[DBAHO]

If it takes Thomas to get Greg Miller or Edwin Jackson along with James Loney, then I think we should do that deal. It's certainly a risk though losin Thomas's ability to get on base thru his power hitting and ability to draw walks. Could be the chance sum1 like Borchard or Gload needs as well.

[YASNY]

Rogers is absolutely correct about one thing. Trading Frank Thomas is a VERY risky move. KW better make sure he gets something back that would justify the risk, because that could really really come back to haunt us. Hell, they may be talking about "The Curse of the Big Hurt" 50 years from now.

[C.Rector]

Rogers is absolutely correct about one thing.  Trading Frank Thomas is a VERY risky move.  KW better make sure he gets something back that would justify the risk, because that could really really come back to haunt us.  Hell, they may be talking about "The Curse of the Big Hurt" 50 years from now.

You mean like "The Curse of Rocky Colavito"?

[YASNY]

You mean like "The Curse of Rocky Colavito"?

I thought that was "The Curse of Rocky and Bullwinkle".

[NO!!MARY!!!]

You mean like "The Curse of Rocky Colavito"?

Nope. Sorry. That curse gets a big ZERO on the "Curse Cuteness" Scale. Billy

goats and Bambinos are far more fun.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

If it takes Thomas to get Greg Miller or Edwin Jackson along with James Loney, then I think we should do that deal. It's certainly a risk though losin Thomas's ability to get on base thru his power hitting and ability to draw walks. Could be the chance sum1 like Borchard or Gload needs as well.

If we are gonna deal Thomas then now is the time. He still has a good deal of value and a number of at least decent years ahead of him. Having him hang around till he's 38-39 means we'll get nothing for him and like it.

[DBAHO]

If we are gonna deal Thomas then now is the time.  He still has a good deal of value and a number of at least decent years ahead of him.  Having him hang around till he's 38-39 means we'll get nothing for him and like it.

Exactly, just look at guys like Eric Karros and Fred McGriff. Sure Thomas may hav another excellent year this year, but if we can get a stud pitching prospect who could start for us for at least 10 years, and a great young first baseman prospect to help fill Frank's shoes one day, I think KW should make that deal. Thomas afta this year scares me a lot, I don't think he can keep producing.

[southsider2k5]

Rogers has a point. If we can reload at a couple of positions for a guy that might be gone soon anyway, a guy who is 36 now, and who plays a position that we are overloaded in anyway, you gotta do it.

[elrockinMT]

Please people! Don't tell me that Phil Rogers has a point. The only point I see is the top of Phil's head. There is nothing here except his ranting against Frank Thomas. My bet, obviously just my opinion here and nothing more, is that Phil and his Tribune buddies tried to call Frank and didn't get an answer from the Hurt. Now Frank is the problem and the sole reason that the Sox didn't win. You don't trade Frank, or any other player on the team, unless you get impact players in return. Phil is already downsizing the trade and it appears questioning Frank's value. Plus as pointed out before he doesn't seem to be up on current events.

[SoxFan562004]

I may be wrong, but wasn't there a thread on this site that said the Dodgers aren't interested in Thomas and their GM called him "An American League player"?

 

This is just sloppy reporting by Rogers, I guess the old saying is true; "Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story"

[elrockinMT]

I may be wrong, but wasn't there a thread on this site that said the Dodgers aren't interested in Thomas and their GM called him "An American League player"?

 

This is just sloppy reporting by Rogers, I guess the old saying is true; "Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story"

Writers are frustrated players and/or managers and/or GM's. Phil is no different. He always thinks the team should being doing something other than what they are doing. It could be argued of course that we as soxtalk posters are no different than Phil. But, I think the difference is that we are right and he is wrong.

[SnB]

I don't believe that trading Frank now is a good thing, if we trade him that leaves us with another hole to fill on offense. We have a good chance of competing this year, if we trade Frank then I think that totally wipes us out. However, if in July we're totally out of it, I'll trade frank in a heartbeat.

[witesoxfan]

Exactly, just look at guys like Eric Karros and Fred McGriff. Sure Thomas may hav another excellent year this year, but if we can get a stud pitching prospect who could start for us for at least 10 years, and a great young first baseman prospect to help fill Frank's shoes one day, I think KW should make that deal. Thomas afta this year scares me a lot, I don't think he can keep producing.

May I point out that Eric Karros had a .235 15 63 .691 OPS season in 2001, and a .271 12 73 .722 season that justify his trading(though he was slightly better in less action with the Cubs putting up .286 12 40 .786). And McGriff had been from one team to another to another....I believe the Dodgers were about his 6th team.

 

Frank Thomas is still putting up good numbers, even though he has turned 35 and will turn 36 this year(.262 42 105 .952 OPS last year), and has done it all for one team(for what that's worth...some people, this is worth very little. However, there is the issue of respect, and respect is a big key to a lot of people, and those people may include Jerry Reinsdorf and Frank Thomas. If it does, Thomas will probably be here for 5 more years and he will retire). Karros started to struggle at the age of 33 when he had his .235 season. And as I said, McGriff has played for 6 teams, so that same sense of respect is lost right away.

 

This is not mentioning that winning this year seems to be a big deal around here, especially with how the Cubs are expected to perform, and that with a trade of Frank Thomas, we would be building toward the future, and building toward the future doesn't fly real well when you are trying to win this year. Not only this, but he is one of the best hitters on the team(top 2 at the very least...you can dispute whether he or Maggs is the best hitter all you want) at an affordable price($6 mill). If a Konerko and Lee for Encarnacion and Perez deal could be made, that would be a deal I would be very in favor of.

 

Then again, with the Dodgers new ownership and DePodesta as GM, they may not take Lee and Konerko at about $15 mill this year for Encarnacion and Perez at about $9 mill, and they have said that they don't believe Thomas can make it 140-150 games at 1B. Therefore, the roster we have now is pretty much locked in until May or June.

 

Anyways, if Thomas stops producing(which I highly doubt anyways), his knack for drawing walks and getting on base will be enough along with 25-30 homers, which I think he can easily put up.

[SuperSteve]

Note sure if has been posted, but it's sorta important. From Rotoworld...

 

Paul Lo Duca showed up to camp 30 pounds heavier than he was at the end of last year.

 

Lo Duca apparently intends to hit for more power this year. The extra weight could make it more difficult for him to play left field, if that's something the Dodgers have in mind. However, it might make him more of a middle-of-the-order threat.

 

Source: Los Angeles Daily News

[SoxAce]

Frank Thomas is still putting up good numbers, even though he has turned 35 and will turn 36 this year(.262 42 105 .952 OPS last year)

Excately. There are still a ton of players in the league that are still putting up very good, if not, decent numbers past their prime. No, Thomas is not going to put up sick numbers like Bonds, but he can definitely give you 25-30 hrs. 260-280 avg. (higher if he wanted to lower his homer totals) and 100+ rbis. Some young players couldn't even sniff his average/homerun production. I hope he stays a Whitesock forever and gets into the hall wearing the black and white.

[witesoxfan]

No, Thomas is not going to put up sick numbers like Bonds

We don't know that, do we?

 

He might get to watching film with Walt Hrniak on a somewhat regular basis, disect his swing monthly, weekly when necessary, figure out what pitchers are trying to do to get him out, and then look for that. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up what he did in the mid-90s 2 years from now...I'm not expecting it by any means, but with hard work and doing his homework, along with catching a break now and then, I could honestly see him putting up .340 45 145 with a 1.100 OPS. However, the exact opposite could happen and he could end up at about .240 25 75 .750...Jose Valentin range. I'm expecting middle ground or so.... .260 30 100 .900, about the numbers you posted...but I'm not ruling either of the above to situations completely out of the question.

[SoxAce]

We don't know that, do we?

Of course we know that. He's never done it!! He will not walk over 150 times and strikeout only like 40. Yes, he might touch 40 hrs but not 50+ like bonds. He might not see frank hit over .300 again because of him wanting to hit more homeruns. He will not put up bonds #'s. Case Closed.

[WillieHarris2]

Of course we know that. He's never done it!! He will not walk over 150 times and strikeout only like 40. Yes, he might touch 40 hrs but not 50+ like bonds. He might not see frank hit over .300 again because of him wanting to hit more homeruns. He will not put up bonds #'s. Case Closed.

i agree i dont think thomas will ever reach .300 again partly because he publicly said that he wants to hit home runs.

[C.Rector]

My prediction for Thomas:

 

BA: .290

OBP: .420

HR's: 45

BB: 110

RBI: 115

[BrandoFan]

My prediction for Thomas:

 

BA:  .290

OBP: .420

HR's:  45

BB:  110

RBI: 115

Change 290 to 280 and 45 to 40 and I agree.

 

I think if he stays healthy, Frank has a couple of year left in him. He won't be Roider Bonds but he might just have a good, 950+ OPS campaign in 2004. Anything beyond that is a bonus-- it's not like Sox will give him a long-term contract --they couldn't ait to get rid of him when he is underpaid, lol.

 

Go Frank!!!

[witesoxfan]

Of course we know that. He's never done it!! He will not walk over 150 times and strikeout only like 40. Yes, he might touch 40 hrs but not 50+ like bonds. He might not see frank hit over .300 again because of him wanting to hit more homeruns. He will not put up bonds #'s. Case Closed.

He's never done it? What are you talking about? In 1994, Frank Thomas was having one of the greatest seasons of all time. Consider that this is before the juiced ball era began(though in 1994, the ball was somewhat juiced...IIRC, Griffey, Thomas, Bagwell, Belle, and Matt Williams all had 35+ homers, and Williams had 43 at the time of the strike). In this 1994 season, Frank Thomas had .353 38 101 .487 OBP(at that point, and still today, that is nearly unthinkable), as well as a .729 SLG%(which is a decent OPS for some guys), and you add those up, and you have yourself a 1.217 OPS(actually 1.216 when you add .487 and .729 up, but if you take .487 out to about ten-thousandths or hundred-thousandths place, and you add, you'll probably get roughly 1.217). I'm sure if you adjusted that to the juiced ball era and it is probably something close to 1.350-1.400...not sure exactly, but it is insanely good. In fact, one Barry Bonds, even in the juiced ball era, has only surpassed that 1.217 3 times, the last 3 years...and I'm almost 100% sure that Thomas's 1.217 OPS in 1994 was the highest of the 90s. He was on pace to walk about 160 times or so while only striking out about 81 times or so. Probably would have hit 50 homers, if not more then that(55-60 was possible if he got hot enough...8 or 9 weeks to hit 22 homers? Not likely, but not impossible).

 

Thomas HAS done it before. And if he works hard enough/gets enough breaks/does his homework, he can probably do it again. Or he can just do what Bonds does, whatever the hell that is.

 

BTW, Bonds never did what he has done the past 3 years before either. Bonds had never hit 50 homers before in a season, let alone the 73 he hit in 01, he'd never driven in 130 runs, let alone the 137 he drove in in 01, he'd never drawn 155 walks, let alone 177 or 198, he had never hit above .320 except in 1993 when he hit .336 before 01, let alone the .370 he hit in 02 or the .341 he hit in 03, the fewest he'd ever struck out in 140 or more games before 01 was 69, let alone the 47 times he struck out in 02 in 143 games, he'd had an 1.100 OPS only twice before 01, once in 1993, once in 2000, and he's been above 1.278 since 01, including 01 when he had a 1.379 and 02 when he had a 1.381, he'd never had an OBP higher then .461 before 01, since then he's only had an OBP of .515, .582, and .529 respectively, he'd never had a SLG% of higher then .688 before 01, and then he put up SLG%'s of .868, .799, .749 respectively....need I say more, or should I go on?

 

He will most likely not put up Bonds-like numbers...he'll probably just drive in more runs and hit fewer homers. He won't steal 500 bases. He's not the athlete Bonds is.

 

However, I see no reason why Thomas couldn't hit .340 45 145 1.100 that I mentioned earlier....that's only a fraction of what Bonds can do, and only a fraction of Thomas's best season. If he outdid his best season, like Bonds has done, you'd be looking at probably .375 60 165 1.400. I'll bet the odds are that he does that are almost worse, if not worse, then having the DRays put up back-to-back World Series championships this year and next year. However, if he put up Bonds like numbers, that is what probably what you'd see from Thomas.

 

As I said, I expect .260-.270 or so with 25-30 100-110...similar to the numbers you posted. I just said don't rule out .340 45 145 1.100, because he did it 2000, and he put up a .950 OPS in 03, so those numbers are not out of the question.