Which FA SP Should the Sox Target

[beck72]

In looking at some likely FA Starting pitchers, I was checking which ones would be the best fit for the Sox, considering who the Sox have now and the Cell. The pitcher should throw a lot of quality starts, have a good GB/ FB ratio, not give up a lot of BB's, get a lot of K's, have a low ERA, and have a low BAA. So I compared 7 names in these categories:

1 -% of Quality starts

2- gb/ fb

3-SO/ 9

4--BB/ 9

5--ERA

6--BAA

 

Based on Wed. sports weekly stats, I compared 7 likely FA SP: Odalis Perez; Matt Clement; Russ Ortiz; Carl Pavano; Jon Lieber [has a big option NY should decline]; Brad Radke and Derek Lowe. [i didn't include Pedro because either Bos. will res-sign him or he'll go the NY]

 

I gave them each a number 1-7 for each category, and added the total.

 

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

2. Carl Pavano -18

3. Brad Radke -20

3. Matt Clement -20

5. Jon Lieber -29

6. Russ Ortiz -31

7. Derek Lowe -32

 

I'm sure people can guess which categories the pitchers did well and poorly in. I'll

answer questions from whoever about the numbers though if anyone has questions.

[SoxFanForever]

Just don't forget that the Sox like to do a lot of their work through trades.

[jasonxctf]

I'd really like to see Clement as a replacement for Garland if that's at all possible. Clement could be a nice #4, Contreras would then be #5 and we would need a solid #3

[Gene Honda Civic]

In looking at some likely FA Starting pitchers, I was checking which ones would be the best fit for the Sox, considering who the Sox have now and the Cell. The pitcher should throw a lot of quality starts, have a good GB/ FB ratio, not give up a lot of BB's, get a lot of K's, have a low ERA, and have a low BAA. So I compared 7 names in these categories:

1 -% of Quality starts

2- gb/ fb

3-SO/ 9

4--BB/ 9

5--ERA

6--BAA

 

Based on Wed. sports weekly stats, I compared 7 likely FA SP: Odalis Perez; Matt Clement; Russ Ortiz; Carl Pavano; Jon Lieber [has a big option NY should decline]; Brad Radke and Derek Lowe. [i didn't include Pedro because either Bos. will res-sign him or he'll go the NY]

 

I gave them each a number 1-7 for each category, and added the total.

 

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

2. Carl Pavano -18

3. Brad Radke -20

3. Matt Clement -20

5. Jon Lieber -29

6. Russ Ortiz -31

7. Derek Lowe -32

 

I'm sure people can guess which categories the pitchers did well and poorly in. I'll

answer questions from whoever about the numbers though if anyone has questions.

nice....

 

I think that HR's and Walks are the two most important thinks to avoid when looking for a pitcher who will succeed in the Cell.

 

That being said, I'm glad we have MB. Even though his #'s don't show it this season, he has been pretty good at avoiding the longball, and he challenges hitters/doesn't give the free pass.

[babybearhater]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Odalis Perez is my #1 pick, I love the guy, love what he can do, and I think he is just coming into his own. I think he would be the other lefty that we need

[smalls2598]

of the names mentioned, id like to see pavano, perez, clement

 

ortiz alway has a high WHIP, lieber is old and just came off injury (although hes having a decent year last time i checked...still dont want him though). and i think lowe just plain sucks. hes a number three on boston, has two studs ahead of him, yet he has a terrible year. i think his ERA is still above 5. i think we have enough of those guys already.

 

of the guys i like: pavano will probably cost the most, so hes probably out. i know the sox have looked at perez for a while, so i can see him being on the team. but id really like clement. the guy has nasty stuff, just never got enough run support when pitching this year.

[Flash Tizzle]

So which pitcher came out on top? Here's how they totalled.

1. Odalis Perez- 17 [interesting enough, he didn't come in 1st in any categ, and I didn't include his 8 IP w/ 1 ER on Wed]

Nice statistical analysis of the upcoming FA's. Perhaps the greatest indication of Perez's value to the White Sox is his Home/Away splits.

 

Home: 3-3, 3.31 ERA, .238 BAA, 1.13 WHIP

 

Away: 4-3, 3.21 ERA, .259 BAA, 1.15 WHIP

 

Dodgers Stadium may have earned its distinction as a cavernous ballpark, but aside from a few discrepancies Perez has put together a formidable season on the road. Pitching several games at Petco/Pac Bell may have assisted, but I doubt it padded his stats to a Chan Ho Park level.

[beck72]

nice....

 

I think that HR's and Walks are the two most important thinks to avoid when looking for a pitcher who will succeed in the Cell.

 

That being said, I'm glad we have MB.  Even though his #'s don't show it this season, he has been pretty good at avoiding the longball, and he challenges hitters/doesn't give the free pass.

I was going to look at HR's allowed per IP. But that would take some time.

But Perez has allowed 26; Pavano, 16; Radke, 23; Clement, 23

 

I agree about not allowing free passes. The sox have JG and Contreras who beat themselves w/ BB's. The sox should target a guy w/ good control. The BB/ 9 were:

1 Lieber- 0.95

2 Radke-1.02

3 Perez-2.01

4 Pavano- 2.05

5 Lowe-3.43

6 Clement --3.83

7 Ortiz--4.96

[Soxbadger]

I have serious concerns about National League pitchers coming into the AL, especially a pitcher who since the All-Star break has only averaged 5.8 innings per game.

 

Also, he very rarely went over 90-100 pitches as he only faced 44 batters after the 91st pitch, compared to 92 batters between 76-90, and over 100 batters between all the pitch counts less than 76.

 

Are we going to be able to go to the bullpen after 6 innings every time Perez starts?

 

Just doesnt seem for the price he will command, that he fits into the White Sox plans.

 

Unless we get a dominate closer, in which we could go:

 

7th Marte

8th Shingo

9th Closer.

 

Otherwise, Im not really sold.

 

SB

[Rowand44]

Pavano.

[beck72]

Odalis Perez should be affordable, w/ guys like Pedro and Pavano getting the most attention. Here's how Perez stacked up:

 

Quality starts: now 21 in 31 GS [68%] 3rd

GB/ FB: 1.68, 2nd

SO/ 9: 5.83, 4th

BB/ 9: 2.01, 3rd

ERA: 3.35, 2nd

BAA: .253 3rd

[southsider2k5]

I am going to say Pedro if we are serious about pitching and defense.

[beck72]

I have serious concerns about National League pitchers coming into the AL, especially a pitcher who since the All-Star break has only averaged 5.8 innings per game.

 

Also, he very rarely went over 90-100 pitches as he only faced 44 batters after the 91st pitch, compared to 92 batters between 76-90, and over 100 batters between all the pitch counts less than 76.

 

Are we going to be able to go to the bullpen after 6 innings every time Perez starts?

 

Just doesnt seem for the price he will command, that he fits into the White Sox plans.

 

Unless we get a dominate closer, in which we could go:

 

7th Marte

8th Shingo

9th Closer.

 

Otherwise, Im not really sold.

 

SB

I haven't looked at IP per start, but feel free to do the math.

 

But are you saying the Sox don't need to get a SP? If not Perez or someone from this list, then who? I agree the sox need some bullpen help. A closer would be best. Yet getting a FA SP should also be a priority.

 

Don't forget, LA's bullpen was strong enough that they traded Mota. Looking at all their SP's, besides Weaver, they all were under 100 P/G.

[witesoxfan]

I'd just like to add that Odalis Perez is probably the most underrated starting pitcher available in FA, and probably will be the biggest sleeper in FA too. His numbers do not jump out at you initially due to him only having single-digit wins...but I'm sure if someone did the math, there is a strong possibility that he could have 15 or 16 wins already...at the very least, a lot more wins then he has now.

 

He could take some team's rotation from formidable to very good.

 

Another thing...I think Radke will be the most solid, and will pitch well wherever he goes next year.

 

Basically, I'm saying that if we signed Radke and Perez, that we would have like the best rotation in the majors, bar none...this is, of course, assuming we got rid of Garland and got some decent value from him.

 

It would cost a ton of money to do this...but part of this would be to get rid of a few of our big money players...most notably, Konerko, probably Everett too, and ruling out CLee in being dealt would be bad too, though I actually do not want to see him dealt.

[beck72]

I'd just like to add that Odalis Perez is probably the most underrated starting pitcher available in FA, and probably will be the biggest sleeper in FA too.  His numbers do not jump out at you initially due to him only having single-digit wins...but I'm sure if someone did the math, there is a strong possibility that he could have 15 or 16 wins already...at the very least, a lot more wins then he has now.

 

He could take some team's rotation from formidable to very good.

 

Another thing...I think Radke will be the most solid, and will pitch well wherever he goes next year.

 

Basically, I'm saying that if we signed Radke and Perez, that we would have like the best rotation in the majors, bar none...this is, of course, assuming we got rid of Garland and got some decent value from him.

 

It would cost a ton of money to do this...but part of this would be to get rid of a few of our big money players...most notably, Konerko, probably Everett too, and ruling out CLee in being dealt would be bad too, though I actually do not want to see him dealt.

Minn. would be foolish to let Radke go. I see them resigning him. But Radke would look nice on the southside, a perfect RH compliment to the LH MB.

 

Garland has been bad this year, horrible for a 3rd Starter. Even for a 5th SP, his numbers aren't good. He's only had 15 QS out of 32. His 34 HR's for a GB pitcher, his low 4.69 SO/ 9. I'd like the Sox to look at what they could get for Jon. The sox could look for a prospect with a higher ceiling in a trade, either for Lee or PK, someone to start the yr in AAA and be ready in case of injury.

[witesoxfan]

Minn. would be foolish to let Radke go. I see them resigning him. But Radke would look nice on the southside, a perfect RH compliment to the LH MB.

 

Garland has been bad this year, horrible for a 3rd Starter. Even for a 5th SP, his numbers aren't good. He's only had 15 QS out of 32. His 34 HR's for a GB pitcher, his low 4.69 SO/ 9. I'd like the Sox to look at what they could get for Jon. The sox could look for a prospect with a higher ceiling in a trade, either for Lee or PK, someone to start the yr in AAA and be ready in case of injury.

I think the Twins decision on Radke will be based completely on money...which most decisions are...and if he is too expensive, they may let him go.

 

One thing I do think is a true possibility for Minnesota is to trade Torii Hunter...I don't expect it to happen, I don't think it will happen, hell, I don't even know why I thought of it...but there is a chance they could. He's scheduled to make somewere in the neighborhood of $8-10 mill, and they are paying that much for a guy who will hit .275 25 80 25 .800 with excellent defense and an excellent arm...and while those types of guys are very valuable, some team would overrate Hunter, pay a very steep price for his services, and see him put up those exact numbers. Meanwhile, the Twins would have the money to resign Radke, and would then have 4 good OF options next year...Stewart, Ford, Jones, and Kubel.

 

As I said...I don't think it will happen, but you can't rule it out, just because Hunter's such a "lovable" guy(who grew up in the hoods down in Arkansas).

[Soxbadger]

Its really to early for me to say what pitcher I would want the Sox to put their money behind.

 

I will say that I would rather that they traded for an AL pitcher, then sign an NL pitcher in free agency.

 

At this point, we really dont know who will be available for trade, or who the Sox are wiling to trade.

 

Just lately it seems you can get good bargains for hitters in free agency, where as pitchers are hit and miss and usually cost more money then they are worth.

 

And the math was 5.8 innings per start since All-Star break, which is okay, just he may command more than that is worth.

 

SB

[babybearhater]

Clement sucks, I dont have to say it again I hope. Im glad when he pitches, because he always loses more than he wins. If we sign him, it will be a bust, mark my words. Stop watching baseball tonite and reading the trib, he is the worst pitcher on that staff, including Rusch

[qwerty]

Clement sucks, I dont have to say it again I hope.  Im glad when he pitches, because he always loses more than he wins. If we sign him, it will be a bust, mark my words.  Stop watching baseball tonite and reading the trib, he is the worst pitcher on that staff, including Rusch

Do you know the pitchers that their staff consists of? I am not saying he is great but he is far from sucky.

[babybearhater]

Do you know the pitchers that their staff consists of? I am not saying he is great but he is far from sucky.

yeah I know the pitchers, Zambrano is good, Maddux has pitched over his head, Wood has never won 15 games, and prior has been iffy at best this year.

 

I prefer not to listen to the papers who claimed that Kerry Wood and Mark prior would be competing for the CY young this year, and see how they actually are. Clement and his career 4.34 ERA can stay right where it belongs, in the national league hidden behind some decent pitchers and one ACE (zambrano) because there is a reason that he is below 500 year after year

[qwerty]

yeah I know the pitchers, Zambrano is good, Maddux has pitched over his head, Wood has never won 15 games, and prior has been iffy at best this year.

Maddux has pitched over he head. Lmao. Wood has pitched well enough in his career to have a 15 win season but the offense has not been good enough for him to do so.

[babybearhater]

Maddux has pitched over he head. Lmao. Wood has pitched well enough in his career to have a 15 win season but the offense has not been good enough for him to do so.

Did you read that out of the chicago Tribune, or did a cub fan take your keyboard away. Dont blame in on his offense. Maddux is older than wrigley field, and he has surpassed expectations. And wood will never win that many games because he is overrated and injury prone. In the NATIONAL League his ERA is that high. He is a good pitcher, but in no means the ACE of that staff. And that doesnt change that fact that Clement is still the worst pitcher on that staff. In the American League, he would be a fourth maybe a fifth starter at best

[qwerty]

Did you read that out of the chicago Tribune, or did a cub fan take your keyboard away.  Dont blame in on his offense.  Maddux is older than wrigley field, and he has surpassed expectations.  And wood will never win that many games because he is overrated and injury prone.  In the NATIONAL League his ERA is that high. He is a good pitcher, but in no means the ACE of that staff.  And that doesnt change that fact that Clement is still the worst pitcher on that staff.  In the American League, he would be a fourth maybe a fifth starter at best

Are you saying wood's career 3.61 is high for the national league? Because you would be wrong.

[babybearhater]

Did you read that out of the chicago Tribune, or did a cub fan take your keyboard away.  Dont blame in on his offense.  Maddux is older than wrigley field, and he has surpassed expectations.  And wood will never win that many games because he is overrated and injury prone.  In the NATIONAL League his ERA is that high. He is a good pitcher, but in no means the ACE of that staff.  And that doesnt change that fact that Clement is still the worst pitcher on that staff.  In the American League, he would be a fourth maybe a fifth starter at best

BTW, no more blaming it on offense. Randy Johnson is on the s***tiest team ever, and he still won 15 games this year.

[qwerty]

BTW, no more blaming it on offense.  Randy Johnson is on the s***tiest team ever, and he still won 15 games this year.

His era is what a full run lower than woods. His era is ridiculous that is the only reason he has won 15. If his era was a full run higher he would be lucky to win 10.