Gene Honda Civic Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Like the Rock: The White Sox’s new baserunning coach, Tim Raines, has already declared his intentions to make a significant contribution to the south side’s effort this season: "We won't beat a team with three-run homers, especially with Big Frank not in the lineup. We have to be that type of team that pitches well, plays good defense and manufactures runs." (MLB.com) Last year, the White Sox stole 78 bases, good for ninth in the American League. Unfortunately, they were caught 51 times, a total surpassed only by the Cleveland Indians. Their 60% success rate was second worst in the league, trailing only the Royals, who somehow managed to come in at 58% despite half a season from the most efficient basestealer in the history of the game. Needless to say, there’s room for improvement. Just how bad was that performance last year? Looking at the expected runs matrix for 2004, with a runner on first and one out, teams scored an average of .5496 runs in the inning; with a runner on second, the number jumps to .7104; and with no one on base and two outs, it drops to .1135. We can quickly estimate the breakeven point for stolen bases by dividing the benefit of staying put by the benefit of running: (.5496 - .1135) / (.7104 - .1135) = 73.1%. Other typical situations: Outs Stolen Base Breakeven 0 Second 73.2% 1 Second 73.1% 2 Second 73.2% 0 Third 74.8% 1 Third 69.5% 2 Third 92.7% Depending on the situation involved when the White Sox were stealing last year, they cost themselves somewhere on the order of 14 runs with their errant theft attempts. Even just bringing that back to zero would save the Sox around 1.4 wins. The real question is: do they have the tools to do it? Here are the stolen base numbers from 2004 for the Sox’s top base stealers: Player SB CS Perc Scott Podsednik 70 13 84.3% Aaron Rowand 17 5 77.3% Willie Harris 19 7 73.1% Juan Uribe 9 11 45.0% Steals can be overrated--particularly when they come with more CS than SB as in Juan Uribe’s case--but Scott Podsednik’s 70 steals last year were the real deal. With Podsednik on board and Aaron Rowand back, the White Sox look to be much better on the bases than they were last year without any real improvement elsewhere. Willie Harris doesn’t look to be seeing as much time on the basepaths as last year with a reduced role overall, but his stolen base rate is right around the breakeven point, so he could steal 100 or 0 and add virtually nothing. The real key is getting Uribe to stop running; his basestealing cost the Sox over five runs alone. Removing Uribe and keeping last year’s numbers, the Sox now look to be on pace to steal 111 with 29 failures, a 79.3% success rate. Those numbers would net the Sox about 7.5 runs over the course of the season, a turnaround of 22.5 runs or just over two wins. If Raines can properly coach the Sox in their basestealing adventures, there’s quite a bit of potential for some serious contributions to the offense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 God I love Rock Raines, I'm so glad we hired him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan1 Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 That is some cool number krunching. Thats some Juggernaut type s***. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted March 10, 2005 Author Share Posted March 10, 2005 QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Mar 9, 2005 -> 08:24 PM) That is some cool number krunching. Thats some Juggernaut type s***. 'cept it's not bulls*** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan1 Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Hahahahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabroni Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 'cept it's not bulls*** <{POST_SNAPBACK}> HAHA!!! What, you mean Willie Harris CAN'T play SS and 3B adequately even though he plays 2B and CF well? :rolly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Mar 9, 2005 -> 08:26 PM) 'cept it's not bulls*** True dat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmmmmbeeer Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 What % had Iguchi been stealing at in Japan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch and Judy Garland Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 I'm more worried about how many runners a game are going to be thrown out at home this year. I know it's spring but I was having Wendell" Green-light" Kim flashbacks earlier this week. I sometimes think Cora would challenge Guerrero with Big Ben Davis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlliniKrush Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Last year he challenged Jose Guillen with Konerko as i was holding up the "stop sign", that was brutal. It's like come on, know the arms in the outfield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 QUOTE(IlliniKrush @ Mar 10, 2005 -> 12:56 AM) Last year he challenged Jose Guillen with Konerko as i was holding up the "stop sign", that was brutal. It's like come on, know the arms in the outfield. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I was at that game too. Freddy's first start at home. :headshake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchetman Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 i think the breakeven point is a bit lower than they estimate, because basestealers put more pressure on the defense and pitcher....wild throws over to first, throws into center, having to cover first base, having to play a little closer to the bag, defenders out of position on stolen base attempts, pitcher loss of concentration on the hitter, fatigue from throwing over to first, defense back on their heels as runner and pitcher play games....extra bases gained on a run and hit...etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Ignorance tends to lead someone to think the world is full of BS. There is nothing in Harris' past performance or in his fldg #'s that suggests he can not play SS. It's a given there would be some decline over Uribe but Harris is considered the best all around athlete on the team. However; I am not encouraged by what I'm hearing about Crede (077). If he can't get it together in ST then the Sox have to do something to shore up 3B on a full-time basis. Harris is not the answer. Polanco has some time logged at SS(02), & 3B(03) but nothing extensive. It's a good analysis but not mentioning Igs is foolish. He won two SB crowns in the past 4 yrs in Japan. He's had two off yrs (<25) & two good yrs (>40) in that respect. He's healthier than in 04 so he's due to have a good year. His SB% is higher than all on that list but Pods. If he stays at #2 in the lineup he could boost the Sox SB totals to the 150 range which would be good enough for #1 in the MLs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 agreed on Crede. Sometimes "Flaw in the Swing" is code for slow bat speed. sounds like some serious work needs to be done with his legs to help him level his swing (and eliminate those weak soft pop flies to right field). He's been working on it since last fall -- and still doesn't have it right. Is anybody else thinking uncorrectable? Hurry Up Josh Fields or Micah Schnurstein. There will be ABs available at 3B soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 If he can trust him, Kenny should solicit Boras' help in boosting Crede's trade value. Boras seems adept at selling GM's on potential. This would be the best thing for himself & his client. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 agreed. anybody got Boras' number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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