I just compiled a bunch of data on Jon...

 

TOTAL ERA (all 13 starts)

Inning 1 - 2.77

Inning 2 - 5.54

Inning 3 - 3.46

Inning 4 - 7.62

Inning 5 - 6.92

Inning 6 - 10.80

Inning 7 - 5.68

Inning 8 - 9.00

 

Pretty s***ty all around, right? Well, look what happens if you take out the first two starts (in which he gave up an absurd amount of runs, pretty anomylous for him)

 

TOTAL ERA BY INNING (last 11 starts)

Inning 1 - 2.45

Inning 2 - 6.55*

Inning 3 - 4.09

Inning 4 - 3.27

Inning 5 - 3.27

Inning 6 - 9.31

Inning 7 - 5.68

Inning 8 - 9.00

 

* - he has never given up more than 2 runs in the second inning all year, giving up 2 runs three times and 1 run twice, so he has seemingly avoided the big inning there.

 

Aggregate ERA over the last 11 starts from inning 1-5 = 24 earned runs in 55 innings pitched = 3.93 ERA.

 

So clearly, what Ozzie did last night was correct, and I think that if we keep Jon on a really short leash and pitch McCarthy for 2+ innings, this could be a formula for success. I like the idea of having Jon pitch into the sixth inning with a couple run lead, but the moment he allows 2 baserunners or 1 run scored, whichever comes first, yanking him for McCarthy (or a lefthander if matchups dictate). If we have a 1 run lead, I yank him as soon as he gives up a baserunner after the 5th inning. He's just too disasterous in the 6th inning to continually let him pitch there. Last week in Detroit Ozzie really got burned not bringing the bullpen in a lot sooner in my opinion.

 

I think we can usually count on McCarthy being available there because most of our other starters pitch relatively deep into the game, regardless of if they are winning or losing...

What stands out is something that we all have probably realized a some point this year: Garland should not pitch past the 5th inning.

But he has an ERA of 0.00 in the 9th.

Hmm, interesting, but I'm not sure we can draw any strong conclusions from this.

 

One possiblity is that he's leaving pitches up in the zone later in the games perhaps due to fatique and or mental lapses. Either way, that's not good.

 

I agree though, Ozzie made the right call last night, and not just in hindsight. He had a plan seemingly--Cotts to BMAC to Jenks--and he executed the plan flawlessly.

too small of a sample size...those numbers are rather meaningless

But he has an ERA of 0.00 in the 9th.

 

 

I now have a replacement in mind for Jim Hendry. How's the job situation going Brian?

too small of a sample size...those numbers are rather meaningless

 

 

55 innings pitched with a 3.93 ERA is not a large enough sample size? um....

55 innings pitched with a 3.93 ERA is not a large enough sample size? um....

oh sorry...yeah, that is meaningful, the breakdown by inning isnt since thats only 13 innings for each of the 1st 2nd 3rd etc.....but yeah 55 IP isn't bad

Edited June 14, 200619 yr by daa84

55 innings pitched with a 3.93 ERA is not a large enough sample size? um....

55 innings pitched is actually still a fairly poor sample size for a pitcher, as it's not enough to catch the ups and downs that happen to most pitchers over a season. But even beyond that, you're breaking down those innings into like 7 or 8 different bins, which means in each bin, you have about 10 innings, which really is a terrifically small sample set.

55IP is a pretty small sample size for a starter.

Not to mention the crazy amount of cherry picking that's going on.

 

I now have a replacement in mind for Jim Hendry. How's the job situation going Brian?

 

I'll take whatever you're offering, as long as its legal.

If you guys don't think there's a definite trend going on with those numbers, I don't know what to tell you

well i think Ozzie did it right last night, I know he generally wants our starters to pitch deep into the game, i think he needs to handle each one of our starters a little differently. i.e. keep Jon on a short leash.

I think the more important fact was that Garland's GB/FB ratio last night (10-6) was a whole lot better than it has been this year. Last year his G/F ratio was 1.44. This year it has been 0.97. Thus the league-leading 19 dingers surrendered.

 

So, regardless of the inning, he needs to keep the ball down to be successful. There's no reason to believe he can't last longer in games once he returns to doing that more consistently.

well i think Ozzie did it right last night, I know he generally wants our starters to pitch deep into the game, i think he needs to handle each one of our starters a little differently. i.e. keep Jon on a short leash.

 

See, but one of the reasons Jon started so well and seemed to turn the corner under Ozzie is that he wasn't looking over his shoulder everytime there was trouble or it hit the 6th inning like it was under Manuel.

Edited June 14, 200619 yr by RibbieRubarb

I liked your stats, Greg--they were cool to look at.

 

It's just cool to see what the deal has been up to now--don't know why everybody's jumping on this.

 

What would be interesting is to compare it to his full-season stats from last year, and see what pops.

I hate to think we have another Jim Parque on our hands. I agree that Ozzie saw a trend as well and acted accordingly, but if the WS bullpen is required to pitch 4 innings every time Jon is on the bump, it could take a toll on the entire staff. The rest of the starters would have to pitch really deep into games and there is no margin for error when someone comes in to relieve Garland. If this is the strategy needed with Garland, it does not bode well for the rest of the team.

I think there is a tremendous amount of over analysis on Jon Garland and Brian Anderson. Garland has been hit pretty good all season but he is eating innings. Vazquez and Garcia have been just as erratic and I believe they have done it with greater run support than Garland which has covered them to a degree.

 

I believe the major issues that this teams needs to address which are larger then Anderson and Garland are:

 

Juan Uribe's decline in both defense and offense. A .234 OBP are grounds for being released yet he is getting a free pass. As was pointed out in the game last night, his defense has been erratic of late. There are two people (Ozuna and Cintron) that can fill in for this slot.

 

Scott Podesednik's defense is downright horrendous. This along with a .250 average are not helping this team at all.

So, in conclusion, pull him after the first?

too small of a sample size...those numbers are rather meaningless

Did somebody call me?

 

Heed the avatar.

I hate to think we have another Jim Parque on our hands. I agree that Ozzie saw a trend as well and acted accordingly, but if the WS bullpen is required to pitch 4 innings every time Jon is on the bump, it could take a toll on the entire staff. The rest of the starters would have to pitch really deep into games and there is no margin for error when someone comes in to relieve Garland. If this is the strategy needed with Garland, it does not bode well for the rest of the team.

 

If we're fortunate enough to make it to the WS (or even the ALCS) again, Jon will likely be pitching long-relief out of the 'pen.