The Offense: 2007 vs. 2008

[effectivelywild]

During today's broadcast, someone had emailed in the question as to whether the White Sox's offense would be as bad as it was last year. Hawk immediately answered "No" but offered little if any evidence for his opinion. So I thought I'd ask the board: will the offense be better this year? Specifically, what went wrong last year that you don't think will be the case this year?

 

[almagest]

During today's broadcast, someone had emailed in the question as to whether the White Sox's offense would be as bad as it was last year. Hawk immediately answered "No" but offered little if any evidence for his opinion. So I thought I'd ask the board: will the offense be better this year? Specifically, what went wrong last year that you don't think will be the case this year?

 

I don't think it's possible to be as bad. We have a better bench, and Swisher and Cabrera.

[Balta1701]

Darin Erstad, Luis Terrero, an injured Scott Podsednik, an injured Alex Cintron, an injured Joe Crede, an injured Toby Hall, Andy Gonzalez, Gustavlo Molina shared some 1316 at bats last year.

 

The team also tried out several rookies, including Richar, Fields, Owens, and Sweeney, who were raw but getting their first real taste of MLB pitching.

 

And on top of that, Jermaine Dye was hurt for half the year and had a down year, AJ Pierzynski had a down year, and Konerko had a down year. The only 2 people on our team with batting averages of .275 or better were Thome and Mackowiak.

 

Simple regression to the mean for half these guys makes this offense better. Giving at bats to Swisher, Quentin, A-Ram, Anderson, instead of Pods, Erstad, Terrero makes this offense better. Joe Crede hopefully not being in pain makes this offense better. The team being deep enough to give Dye days off if he needs them makes this offense better.

[Wanne]

I think it all depends on who's at the top of the order...and who STAYS there. Plus the other big question marks are of course Crede and Uribe IMO. Yeah...their dingers won the game today...but how long a drought will there be before the next big hit. Also...we cannot afford to experiment with Alexi for very long...

[RME JICO]

Darin Erstad, Luis Terrero, an injured Scott Podsednik, an injured Alex Cintron, an injured Joe Crede, an injured Toby Hall, Andy Gonzalez, Gustavlo Molina shared some 1316 at bats last year.

That many ABs is equivalent to 42 games (just over a quarter of the season). If we replace those ABs with at least league average players, the offense will be much improved.

[The Ginger Kid]

I'm going to miss those sunday lineups with Terrero, Gonzalez and Hall.

[Rowand44]

Worry about the pitching. Our offense will be fine.

[southsidehawkeye]

I think Hawk was right on this one. The offense will be better, and that is all that really needs to be said on that topic. Last year our hitters were bad... really, really bad. Even the ones that are usually pretty good.

 

By my count we had 7 hitters with 350+ ABs, them being:

 

Name - AVG/OBP - HR - RBI

 

Thome - .275/.410 - 35 - 96

Konerko - .259/.351 - 31 - 90

Dye - .254/.317 - 31 - 90

Fields - .244/.308 - 23 - 67

Owens - .267/.324 - 1 - 17

Uribe - .234/.284 - 20 - 68

AJ - .263/.309 - 14 -50

 

Now, I didnt look up each players career averages, but it wouldn't surprise me if not a single one reached them. Also, once Iguchi left we didnt really have a good #2 hitter, and we lacked a lead off hitter (owens did a better job in the second half, but still not stellar). We also dropped Erstad, Pods, Mack, Terrerro, etc... none of whom did much of anything to deserve even being on a major league roster last year.

 

 

Now look at what we have this year.

 

Swisher, Cabrera, Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede, AJ.

 

Swisher/Cabrera are a huge upgrade over who the replaced on the offense. And assuming our other vets wont collectively fall in the crapper again, I'd say we will certainly score more runs than last year. No matter how long Uribe/Crede are in the lineup, or even if Ramirez/Anderson/Quentin/Owens/Richar have serious problems at the plate. Last year was bad, and it'll be hard not to improve.

 

But, if the question is has this offense improved enough to make play for the top of our division... that is a whole different debate.

Edited April 3, 2008 by southsidehawkeye

[Linnwood]

Specifically, what went wrong last year that you don't think will be the case this year?

 

It is already warmer out this year than last year.

[lostfan]

Now, I didnt look up each players career averages, but it wouldn't surprise me if not a single one reached them. Also, once Iguchi left we didnt really have a good #2 hitter, and we lacked a lead off hitter (owens did a better job in the second half, but still not stellar). We also dropped Erstad, Pods, Mack, Terrerro, etc... none of whom did much of anything to deserve even being on a major league roster last year.

Now look at what we have this year.

Mack was not a problem offensively in 2007, or ever.

 

In fact, if we weren't completely loaded with outfielders, I'd be missing him a lot right now.

Edited April 3, 2008 by lostfan

[BearSox]

Swisher and Cabrera (and sometime Quentin) are upgrades over Erstad and Iguchi, but Uribe is still in the lineup and so is Crede, and both of them quite frankly suck at hitting. Crede gets a free pass by a lot because of his clutch 05 and career year in 06, but he's just not that good of a hitter.

 

Also, Owens and Pods are pretty much a wash. In fact, I'd say Owens is a downgrade because he is even worse defensively (if that's possibly), and is just a terrible hitter. Lets compare last year's opening day lineup vs. this year's...

 

2007 ----- 2008

C: Pierzynski

1B: Konerko

2B: Iguchi > Uribe (even a bad Iguchi is better offensively then Uribe)

3B: Fields > Crede (There's no doubt that Fields is the better hitter)

SS: Uribe

LF: Podsednik = Owens (Owens, IMO, might actually be a downgrade. If he stays healthy for then a two month span however, he might have the edge)

CF: Erstad

RF: Dye =

DH: Thome

 

To me, yeah the 2008 lineup is better, but that difference isn't enough to balance out the fact that our rotation is pitiful. The thing that really irks me though is how much we downgraded our farm system, putting our future into jeopardy.

[Balta1701]

3B: Fields > Crede (There's no doubt that Fields is the better hitter)

DH: Thome

I'm actually going to have to take you to task on this...yes, last year Fields had a decent year for a rookie. But Fields only played 2/3 of a season at 3rd, Joe Crede with a back injury played a good chunk of the season there. So while Fields may be a better hitter, simply saying that Fields is better than Crede and therefore we've downgraded at 3rd base offensively simply isn't correct. If Crede put up Crede Average numbers for a season, .260 BA, .750 or so OPS, over a full season, that's going to be an upgrade over Fields with a .785 OPS for 2/3 of a season and Crede with a .500 OPS for 1/3 of a season.

[BearSox]

I'm actually going to have to take you to task on this...yes, last year Fields had a decent year for a rookie. But Fields only played 2/3 of a season at 3rd, Joe Crede with a back injury played a good chunk of the season there. So while Fields may be a better hitter, simply saying that Fields is better than Crede and therefore we've downgraded at 3rd base offensively simply isn't correct. If Crede put up Crede Average numbers for a season, .260 BA, .750 or so OPS, over a full season, that's going to be an upgrade over Fields with a .785 OPS for 2/3 of a season and Crede with a .500 OPS for 1/3 of a season.

well, over a full season, Crede from 05 might be better then the production we got out of 3B from last year. But even so, it's closer to equal then anything else... plus, there's the question as to whether he can actually hit his weight this season.

[lostfan]

well, over a full season, Crede from 05 might be better then the production we got out of 3B from last year. But even so, it's closer to equal then anything else... plus, there's the question as to whether he can actually hit his weight this season.

If Uribe could hit his weight he'd be a MVP wouldn't he?

[southsidehawkeye]

Mack was not a problem offensively in 2007, or ever.

 

In fact, if we weren't completely loaded with outfielders, I'd be missing him a lot right now.

 

 

yeah, not sure why I included his name there. He was a good bat on the bench. I think my mind must have just starting listing the guys we got rid of... however, I stand by the overall message of my post. I think that with the additions made and our players hopefully not collectively having some of their worst offensive years will lead to more runs scored in 2008.

[lostfan]

yeah, not sure why I included his name there. He was a good bat on the bench. I think my mind must have just starting listing the guys we got rid of... however, I stand by the overall message of my post. I think that with the additions made and our players hopefully not collectively having some of their worst offensive years will lead to more runs scored in 2008.

Yeah, your basic point still does stand. We had a lot of guys that sucked really bad and were AAA players or fringe bench players at best starting a lot of games last year.

[southsidehawkeye]

I'm actually going to have to take you to task on this...yes, last year Fields had a decent year for a rookie. But Fields only played 2/3 of a season at 3rd, Joe Crede with a back injury played a good chunk of the season there. So while Fields may be a better hitter, simply saying that Fields is better than Crede and therefore we've downgraded at 3rd base offensively simply isn't correct. If Crede put up Crede Average numbers for a season, .260 BA, .750 or so OPS, over a full season, that's going to be an upgrade over Fields with a .785 OPS for 2/3 of a season and Crede with a .500 OPS for 1/3 of a season.

 

 

While Joe Crede's average production is better than Field's last season, his 2006 numbers are pushing those numbers up. If we get 2006 Crede, he certainly is an upgrade over Fields' 2007 numbers but if we get the 2003-2005 Crede his number are at best a push to Fields last year (similar average/OBP, Josh put up similar power numbers in less ABs). So IMO its hard to call if 3B will be an upgrade offensively this year or not with Crede playing, only time will tell which Joe shows up i guess.

[BearSox]

If Uribe could hit his weight he'd be a MVP wouldn't he?

It's been a long time since someone hit above .400...

[Marky Mark]

Darin Erstad, Luis Terrero, an injured Scott Podsednik, an injured Alex Cintron, an injured Joe Crede, an injured Toby Hall, Andy Gonzalez, Gustavlo Molina shared some 1316 at bats last year.

 

The team also tried out several rookies, including Richar, Fields, Owens, and Sweeney, who were raw but getting their first real taste of MLB pitching.

 

And on top of that, Jermaine Dye was hurt for half the year and had a down year, AJ Pierzynski had a down year, and Konerko had a down year. The only 2 people on our team with batting averages of .275 or better were Thome and Mackowiak.

 

Simple regression to the mean for half these guys makes this offense better. Giving at bats to Swisher, Quentin, A-Ram, Anderson, instead of Pods, Erstad, Terrero makes this offense better. Joe Crede hopefully not being in pain makes this offense better. The team being deep enough to give Dye days off if he needs them makes this offense better.

 

 

If Andy Gonzalez was still starting on this team I don't think I could watch the Sox games anymore. Have fun with him Indians.

[ScottyDo]

Also, Owens and Pods are pretty much a wash. In fact, I'd say Owens is a downgrade because he is even worse defensively (if that's possibly), and is just a terrible hitter. Lets compare last year's opening day lineup vs. this year's...

you really think so? i'm not saying owens plays stellar defense, but i don't see how someone who can play centerfield is worse than someone who can't serviceably play left field. i mean, i didn't see any fly balls bouncing off owens's head

[SoxAce]

you really think so? i'm not saying owens plays stellar defense, but i don't see how someone who can play centerfield is worse than someone who can't serviceably play left field. i mean, i didn't see any fly balls bouncing off owens's head

 

No your right and really, it isn't even close. Owens is the better defender, still nothing to brag about of course, especially with Pods' name linked to ya, but he is better. Better jumps, much precise read on balls off the bat/better angles, faster (speed) commin in/or going back, etc. His arm might be a tad worse though (but I'm not touchin that subject )

 

And of course we'll see some sabermetrics person putting in their imput even though for defense most of the times, you can basically see it by eye.

Edited April 4, 2008 by SoxAce

[bmags]

I believe our offense will be better. I THINK FROM MY GUT.

[witesoxfan]

Actually, I think Podsednik very well might get better reads on balls, which would make him the better fundamentally sound fielder, but Owens speed is so much greater that he can close in on balls much better than Podsednik can.

 

 

[BearSox]

you really think so? i'm not saying owens plays stellar defense, but i don't see how someone who can play centerfield is worse than someone who can't serviceably play left field. i mean, i didn't see any fly balls bouncing off owens's head

See, the funny thing about that is Owens CAN'T play CF.

[lostfan]

See, the funny thing about that is Owens CAN'T play CF.

He is pretty much a league-average CF. To say he is terrible out there is just plain hyperbole. His only real knock on him is his arm, and that's what keeps him from being able to separate himself from being average.