Peavy Rejects Sox Offer; Deal Now Dead

[BearSox]

Marty is getting a lot of s*** on here, but he isn't that off. He is 31 and 10 months old. As Steve said, his ERA has been rising every year over the past 3 years. And while he dominated the 2nd half of last year, he has gotten hit hard this year.

 

While I think he could be a solid pitcher for the next couple of years, that's a lot of money and some good prospects we have to give up for a pitcher leaving his prime.

[Marty34]

So what happened over his final 21 starts last year when he threw 139.2 IP, 1.87 BB/9, 7.22 K/9, 3.86 K/BB, 0.52 HR/9, 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a .225/.270/.310/.585 against? That includes a 32.1 IP scoreless streak in early September in which he threw back to back shutouts.

 

Those are some pretty gaudy numbers for a #3 starter.

 

Is Roy Oswalt better than Buehrle today? Will he be better than Buehrle over the remainder of his contract? If the answer is not yes to both questions, pass.

 

[RockRaines]

Is Roy Oswalt better than Buehrle today? Will he be better than Buehrle over the remainder of his contract? If the answer is not yes to both questions, pass.

So is he better than our Ace? Is that what we are looking for? I thought we were looking for someone who is better than our #4 and #5 guys. There arent alot of guys that will come pitch in our park that will be better than Buehrle. He may be a perennial CY contender in the NL.

[WCSox]

He's 32. He's no more than a big name (with a big contract) at this point in his career.

 

He's 31 and had a 1.18 WHIP last season. Your argument is based on 11 starts.

 

I agree that Oswalt in his early 30's *could* be declining, but it's not like he's an NFL halfback, who almost unfailingly experience sharp drop-offs in productivity at age 32. Unless there's something you know about Oswalt's health that you're not sharing with us, your argument is nothing but unsubstantiated speculation.

 

As Steve said, his ERA has been rising every year over the past 3 years.

 

ERA is based heavily on one's bullpen, and Oswalt's has eroded significantly over the past five years. WHIP is a better evaluation of his performance, and his 1.18 WHIP last season was the fourth-lowest of his career - and substantially lower than the WHIP that he put up in his back-to-back 20-win seasons.

 

And while he dominated the 2nd half of last year, he has gotten hit hard this year.

 

How often to pitchers whose skills are being diminished with age dominate the second half of a season?

 

Edited May 27, 2009 by WCSox

[Marty34]

So is he better than our Ace? Is that what we are looking for? I thought we were looking for someone who is better than our #4 and #5 guys. There arent alot of guys that will come pitch in our park that will be better than Buehrle. He may be a perennial CY contender in the NL.

 

Peavy, Halladay, and Haren. Those are the guys you go after if they are available. Don't want to pay Oswalt-type money for the third best pitcher on the staff. If they are in contention and a pitcher short at the deadline, I'd make a play for Bedard.

[Kalapse]

Is Roy Oswalt better than Buehrle today? Will he be better than Buehrle over the remainder of his contract? If the answer is not yes to both questions, pass.

Wait, why does he have to produce better than Buehrle? Personally, I could see them putting up similar numbers the rest of the way with the upside squarely in Oswalt's favor.

[Balta1701]

Peavy, Halladay, and Haren. Those are the guys you go after if they are available. Don't want to pay Oswalt-type money for the third best pitcher on the staff. If they are in contention and a pitcher short at the deadline, I'd make a play for Bedard.

Roy Oswalt is 3 months younger than Roy Halladay.

[WCSox]

Roy Oswalt is 3 months younger than Roy Halladay.

 

And isn't constantly fighting injuries.

 

[Marty34]

He's 31 and had a 1.18 WHIP last season. Your argument is based on 11 starts.

 

I agree that Oswalt in his early 30's *could* be declining, but it's not like he's an NFL halfback, who almost unfailingly experience sharp drop-offs in productivity at age 32. Unless there's something you know about Oswalt's health that you're not sharing with us, your argument is nothing but unsubstantiated speculation.

 

The very thought that Oswalt *could* be declining is reason enough to not trade for him when taking into account the money he is owed.

 

[Marty34]

Roy Oswalt is 3 months younger than Roy Halladay.

 

. . . And not as good a pitcher as Halladay.

[Kalapse]

And isn't constantly fighting injuries.

Roy Halladay hasn't experienced an "injury" since 2006 when he missed a couple starts with forearm problems. Oswalt on the other hand had some problems with an abductor muscle last year.

[Marty34]

Wait, why does he have to produce better than Buehrle? Personally, I could see them putting up similar numbers the rest of the way with the upside squarely in Oswalt's favor.

 

Okay, he has to be equal to Buehrle (good Buehrle). Oswalt in the AL doesn't keep his ERA under 4.25, in my opinion.

 

[Kyyle23]

The very thought that Oswalt *could* be declining is reason enough to not trade for him when taking into account the money he is owed.

 

Halladay, Peavy, and Oswalt all *could* be declining. Does that mean that none of them should be acquired? First it was age, then it was contract, now it is percieved skill.

 

Which is it going to be?

[Marty34]

Halladay, Peavy, and Oswalt all *could* be declining. Does that mean that none of them should be acquired? First it was age, then it was contract, now it is percieved skill.

 

Which is it going to be?

 

Why can't it be all of the above?

[Kyyle23]

Why can't it be all of the above?

 

Because all three have been aces, all three get paid pretty well, and the only difference is that peavy is younger than Halladay and Oswalt, so why would Halladay(in your opinion) be ok to acquire and Oswalt will not be ok? I am asking what you are seeing in Oswalt that indicates to you that he is not even a 3 starter anymore, and I dont want to hear "he is paid too much/on the downside of his career"

 

You have repeatedly been shown his numbers to close out the season last year, and they were pretty impressive, especially the B2B shutouts in September( True, he hasnt been amazing this year, but then again neither has Peavy.), all i am asking from you is a little bit of reasoning behind your opinion so I can understand it a little better

Edited May 27, 2009 by kyyle23

[WCSox]

The very thought that Oswalt *could* be declining is reason enough to not trade for him when taking into account the money he is owed.

 

You could say that about ANY pitcher over the age of 30 - or Jake Peavy, who had elbow problems last summer. There's always risk involved.

 

For the record, I wouldn't mind Halladay either.

Edited May 27, 2009 by WCSox

[WCSox]

Peavy, Halladay, and Haren. Those are the guys you go after if they are available. Don't want to pay Oswalt-type money for the third best pitcher on the staff. If they are in contention and a pitcher short at the deadline, I'd make a play for Bedard.

 

LOL, first you whine about the risk of picking up Oswalt, and then call for Peavy (who has had recent elbow problems and will be owed roughly $70 million) or Bedard, who is a massive headcase pu$$y that won't pitch through minor pain. Your posts make no sense.

Edited May 27, 2009 by WCSox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Because all three have been aces, all three get paid pretty well, and the only difference is that peavy is younger than Halladay and Oswalt, so why would Halladay(in your opinion) be ok to acquire and Oswalt will not be ok? I am asking what you are seeing in Oswalt that indicates to you that he is not even a 3 starter anymore, and I dont want to hear "he is paid too much/on the downside of his career"

 

You have repeatedly been shown his numbers to close out the season last year, and they were pretty impressive, especially the B2B shutouts in September( True, he hasnt been amazing this year, but then again neither has Peavy.), all i am asking from you is a little bit of reasoning behind your opinion so I can understand it a little better

Halladay is in a different stratosphere altogether. IMO he's a legit top-5 pitcher in all of baseball, and maybe better than that. Plus from what I've seen he's more of a pitcher than Oswalt, and even though their career numbers and peripherals are very, very close, Halladay has done it in the AL East of all places. Oswalt did it in the NL Central. I'd be skeptical about locking Oswalt up, but I'd have no problem whatsoever dealing for Doc and locking him up for his Age 33-35 seasons. If we acquired him this year and extended him through 2012 I'd be salivating.

Edited May 27, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Marty34]

Because all three have been aces, all three get paid pretty well, and the only difference is that peavy is younger than Halladay and Oswalt, so why would Halladay(in your opinion) be ok to acquire and Oswalt will not be ok? I am asking what you are seeing in Oswalt that indicates to you that he is not even a 3 starter anymore, and I dont want to hear "he is paid too much/on the downside of his career"

 

You have repeatedly been shown his numbers to close out the season last year, and they were pretty impressive, especially the B2B shutouts in September( True, he hasnt been amazing this year, but then again neither has Peavy.), all i am asking from you is a little bit of reasoning behind your opinion so I can understand it a little better

 

He's given up 11 HR's in 62 IP this year, yeah I'd say that's pretty "unamazing". I don't understand why his 2nd half last year is proof that he's still an elite pitcher while his first 62 IP are discounted. Look, you're going to have to pay Oswalt between ~$35-40M through 2011 and give up prospects for him, better be sure he is not in decline.

[Kyyle23]

Halladay is in a different stratosphere altogether. IMO he's a legit top-5 pitcher in all of baseball, and maybe better than that. Plus from what I've seen he's more of a pitcher than Oswalt, and even though their career numbers and peripherals are very, very close, Halladay has done it in the AL East of all places. Oswalt did it in the NL Central. I'd be skeptical about locking Oswalt up, but I'd have no problem whatsoever dealing for Doc and locking him up for his Age 33-35 seasons. If we acquired him this year and extended him through 2012 I'd be salivating.

 

IMO Halladay is untouchable(I believe Ricciardi has said this before as well), I mentioned him because Marty brought him up, not because he is available(or percieved to be available). Of all of those pitchers, Halladay would be my first choice as well, but I think we are looking at the second tier of aces right now.

 

Haren, Peavy, and Oswalt are really the root of the dispute here, and I think they are all pretty similar, with Peavy being the highest paid and probably the scariest investment considering previously cited arm problems. Oswalt may end up being the last available chick at the dance, but I dont necessarily see that as a bad thing in this dance.

 

He's given up 11 HR's in 62 IP this year, yeah I'd say that's pretty "unamazing". I don't understand why his 2nd half last year is proof that he's still an elite pitcher while his first 62 IP are discounted. Look, you're going to have to pay Oswalt between ~$35-40M through 2011 and give up prospects for him, better be sure he is not in decline.

 

and Jake Peavy has given up 7 HR in 67 innings, but you think he is a good alternative here? And Peavy plays in the spacious Petco, Oswalt plays in the bandbox Minutemaid park. And Peavys salary escalates to obscene levels

Edited May 27, 2009 by kyyle23

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

IMO Halladay is untouchable(I believe Ricciardi has said this before as well), I mentioned him because Marty brought him up, not because he is available(or percieved to be available). Of all of those pitchers, Halladay would be my first choice as well, but I think we are looking at the second tier of aces right now.

 

Haren, Peavy, and Oswalt are really the root of the dispute here, and I think they are all pretty similar, with Peavy being the highest paid and probably the scariest investment considering previously cited arm problems. Oswalt may end up being the last available chick at the dance, but I dont necessarily see that as a bad thing in this dance.

I would agree with all that, and what would also scare me about Peavy is the refusal to play in the American League. Since pitching is such a mental thing, and since baseball is a team thing, I don't want a guy who is either afraid to face AL hitters, or not confident in his ability to pitch in a hitter's park, and/or worried about his numbers because of contractual reasons. That said, I'd still pull the trigger on the offered deal because you have to take that chance since aces are so rare.

 

Halladay would be #1 for me too. In the next group, I'd go Haren, then Peavy, then Oswalt, with age as the reasoning. I wouldn't complain about getting Oswalt though. Not at all. He's a great pitcher.

[Marty34]

and Jake Peavy has given up 7 HR in 67 innings, but you think he is a good alternative here? And Peavy plays in the spacious Petco, Oswalt plays in the bandbox Minutemaid park. And Peavys salary escalates to obscene levels

 

You know why Peavy is a better alternative than Oswalt? He's the better pitcher today *and* he's four years younger. Still, I'd have big problems picking up his option. And just because they can't get Peavy for less than ~$70M doesn't mean they should pay Oswalt $35M.

 

 

[qwerty]

Oswalt's peripherals last season were better than two thirds of his career. But if people look at era as the end all, be all, which most do, yes he is on the decline.

 

It was brought up that his era was ''steadily'' on the rise for three seasons in a row. Far from a valid arguement that oswalt is on the decline.

 

2005- 2.94 era

 

2006- 2.98 era

 

2007- 3.18 era

 

2008- 3.54era

 

People are actually complaining about 0.04 jump of his era, and another .0.20 jump of an era. What about when his era was 3.49 in 2004, coming off of a season in which he posted a 2.97 era? His 0.36 jump in era from 2007 to 2008 means very little in the grand scheme of things, if you delve deeper into things.

 

 

Peripherals people, look at peripherals.

Edited May 28, 2009 by qwerty

[WCSox]

You know why Peavy is a better alternative than Oswalt? He's the better pitcher today *and* he's four years younger. Still, I'd have big problems picking up his option.

 

So a potential age-induced loss of skills doesn't matter in Halladay's case, despite the fact that he's slightly older than Oswalt. Gotcha.

 

And just because they can't get Peavy for less than ~$70M doesn't mean they should pay Oswalt $35M.

 

You're right. They should just sit there with their thumbs up their butts, rather than take a relatively small financial risk on a guy who is younger than Halladay and has dominated the NL for the past six years.

 

[TheBigHurt]

It's a bigger assumption to think Oswalt is still a top starter. If the point of a Peavy trade is to get a pitcher who is better than Buehrle, which is how I'm viewing it, that pitcher is not Roy Oswalt.

 

I disagree. Your assumption (an uneducated opinion at best) is further away from the truth than saying he's an bonafide ace.