The Chinese were hording aluminum in Mexico.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-billio...356054?mod=e2fb

WERE hoarding....

At what point do investors turn on Musk?

I have never seen the manufacturing economy as bad as it is now. We have customers across various industries, and 90% of them are struggling, seeing lots of hours cut, some lay offs. Hoping it turns around once the election circus ends, but not keeping hopes up.

Interesting artilce here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/real-wage-g...research-2016-9

 

States that historically people see big wage growth from 25-40, then plateau, then drops as they approach 60.

 

Well more people than ever are approaching 60, it is a driving factor in wage growth.

The Associated PressVerified account

‏@AP

BREAKING: Labor Department says applications for unemployment benefits unchanged last week, stay at 43-year-low.

 

Combined with the recent good news on wage growth, it seems like the recovery has finally started to spread more broadly.

I have never seen the manufacturing economy as bad as it is now. We have customers across various industries, and 90% of them are struggling, seeing lots of hours cut, some lay offs. Hoping it turns around once the election circus ends, but not keeping hopes up.

Exactly. The economy is wretched. I don't know anybody making any real money anymore. Everybody's just hoping to not get laid off.

 

Combined with the recent good news on wage growth, it seems like the recovery has finally started to spread more broadly.

See above post. The middle class is struggling.

In some places and in some ways, yes. In other places, it isn't.

In some places and in some ways, yes. In other places, it isn't.

 

How is the law profession doing? Booming or not? Just asking. What about engineering and architecture?

If dominos pizza was a startup in san francisco they'd have a 30 billion dollar valuation.

IMO, the middle class is struggling because there is/has been a major shift in well paying jobs. You can't have a high school degree and go work in a factory and make 100k anymore, those days are loooong gone.

 

Now you most likely need a college degree in a technical field to make 100k+. Between raising college costs, a changing job market, etc, our society needs to adapt quickly. We can't tell everyone that they can study whatever they want, we need to be more reasonable in what we preach to kids, not tell them that they can't be artists or whatnot but tell them have a trade as a backup or something like that.

 

Exactly. The economy is wretched. I don't know anybody making any real money anymore. Everybody's just hoping to not get laid off.

 

 

See above post. The middle class is struggling.

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/10...p-portrays.html

 

In summary, manufacturing is strong but automation/efficiency is high thus fewer jobs.

Edited October 22, 20169 yr by jasonxctf

Combined with the recent good news on wage growth, it seems like the recovery has finally started to spread more broadly.

I disagree. People are less skilled than ever. What's not in those figures are the millions of americans getting part-timed to avoid insurance costs. It's rampant. Technically the guy spinning the sign has a job, but he still lives in his mom's basement.

 

People turn a blind-eye to the major problem with the ACA. Sure the poor get health insurance which is awesome, but it also MADE ABSOLUTELY SURE WITHOUT A DOUBT that they will remain poor their entire lives. Correct me if I'm wrong, just a casual observer.

Unemployment figures track underemployment.

Unemployment figures track underemployment.

 

That is half true. The figures announced on television don't include it. They do track it in other unpublicized numbers.

Unemployment figures track underemployment.

Na man. That's like believing in the Easter Bunny. It's bad out there in the real world. I don't feel like working in the service industry is ever reported.

Americans’ wages just hit an all-time high

 

The inflation adjusted weekly income of the typical full-time American worker hit an all-time high in the third quarter of 2016, according to data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

 

Median weekly earnings had been approximately stagnant for the first 15 years of the 21st century. (They spiked temporarily during the Great Recession because low-wage workers were disproportionately likely to be laid off.) But earnings have rebounded sharply over the past 18 months. That’s a mix of an improving labor market giving workers some bargaining power and cheap energy prices keeping inflation low.

 

This is a slightly different finding from the Census Bureau’s report in September that median household income surged in 2015. The Census looks at all households, whether they’re working or unemployed or retired, while the BLS looks only at individuals who have a job. But the two reports point in the same direction — the economy is getting stronger for ordinary people.

I don't have a WSJ subscription but am generally curious - does Guaranteed Rate count as one of the "nonbank lenders with lower standards" being referred to in this WSJ Piece that are taking up a larger share of the mortgage market?

I don't have a WSJ subscription but am generally curious - does Guaranteed Rate count as one of the "nonbank lenders with lower standards" being referred to in this WSJ Piece that are taking up a larger share of the mortgage market?

I don't believe they are a bank, not sure if they are on the list though.

We will see if I am right or not, but I did the crazy old man thing yesterday and moved out of my stock funds, and into a precious metals fund for the short term. My feeling is that there is no market upside right now. Here is my logic.

 

-We haven't had a correction for quite a while now.

-We haven't had a bear market in years.

-A Hillary Clinton win is priced in, along with the GOP at least holding one house of Congress. If any of those scenarios don't happen, the markets will freak out because they weren't ready for it. Worst of all would be somehow if Hillary keeps losing her lead and somehow blows the election. We are probably talking about a 10 to 15% sell off pretty quickly.

-91% of best recently in election betting went to Trump. That scares me, even as someone who has thought he had no chance of winning. That flow gives me pause for sure.

-Once Hillary does win (I still do think she will win, despite the worries), the markets have that priced in already as the best case scenario. I think once the election happens, and then they connect the dots to the tax plans, there will be a fearful reaction of money being forced outside of the stock market.

-There is also the specter of more regulations being put in, especially if the far left wing anti-banking rhetoric that Clinton picked up from Sanders gets kept up after the election, especially in the hedge funds and market making areas, it will also scare a lot of money out of the markets.

-We have actually seen earnings shrinking in the last couple of quarters.

 

At the end of it, I think even if none of the last two things actually happens, either due to political rationalizing by the Clintons, or because of GOP obstruction, or whatever, it will create at least a temporary excuse to have a decent market correction of somewhere between 10 to 20% over the next six months or so, even if the actual fundamentals don't exist.

 

I guess we will see.

 

 

 

Certainly called that one.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-invis...-194615738.html

 

Invisible majority of Americans being left out by fintech/financial innovation.

 

 

Surely, many of those 60% of Americans who have experienced a decrease in disposable income dating back to 2000.

Caterpillar moving their corporate headquarters and CEO to Chicago. It's only 300 jobs, but another kick to the junk for Peoria.

Caterpillar moving their corporate headquarters and CEO to Chicago. It's only 300 jobs, but another kick to the junk for Peoria.

 

ON top of it, sounds like they canceled existing plans for a new HQ in Peoria.

Caterpillar moving their corporate headquarters and CEO to Chicago. It's only 300 jobs, but another kick to the junk for Peoria.

 

Wow.

 

Edit: not too surprised though, have had friends turn down jobs with caterpillar not wanting to move.