debunking assumptions

[caulfield12]

I think we're about to play the Rays, who have won 8 in a row on the road now...dating back to last season.

 

They just swept the Red Sawx in a 4 game Fenway series for the first time in forever.

 

Which means that we actually have a chance to win a series. No team can stay hot like that. If they do, there'll be even more booing in Chicago than BOS.

Edited April 19, 2010 by caulfield12

[Ranger]

Everyone seemed to indicate (all offseason) that the season's success or failure would rest on what kind of year Rios would have

 

It's entirely plausible that Rios can hit the ball hard all year and we'll still be bad in any number of other spots in the lineup.

 

That was also with the assumption that everyone else would perform to their norms, which is not yet happening.

 

Scary thing is Teahen, Jones, and Konerko have all been better than expected these first two weeks. At least they're getting on base, but I wonder if that's just a function of the opposing pitcher pitching around them because there are so many holes in this lineup. Quentin has to hit a lot closer to the MVP candidate he was in '08 than the way he has since he broke his hand. Pierre needs a permanent seat on the bench and AJP needs to be put on notice.

 

Not really. I'll give you Jones, but Teahen has done about what was expected, and Konerko has slowed down considerably and isn't close to his career averages.

 

Teahen also knocked us out of one Indians game (erasing the good of the superstar performance for one game in TOR)....his defense has been poor, to put it gently/mildly.

 

Disagree. He really hasn't been bad at all aside from that one play in Cleveland.

 

[caulfield12]

What about Teahen's judgement fielding that bunt in the first series?

 

That was another key, momentum-changing play...

[fathom]

That was also with the assumption that everyone else would perform to their norms, which is not yet happening.

 

So we're back to the slogan "the numbers on the back of a baseball card don't lie?" Awesome, so I guess regressions to PK, Pierre, and AJP shouldn't have been considered due to age and wear and tear. One of the main reasons a lot of us kept clamoring for more talent on offense towards the end of the offseason was because we were relying way too much on "ifs". There was no room for error with the offensive talent on this team, and it's obvious when we try to shake up the lineup and Kotsay ends up batting 3rd.

[caulfield12]

We ran statistical calculations until we were blue in the face...projecting this offense.

 

I don't think anyone is really surprised. It's the off performance by Peavy that has everyone the most concerned, although he did bounce back his last start.

 

 

[iamshack]

What about Teahen's judgement fielding that bunt in the first series?

 

That was another key, momentum-changing play...

I can't believe what a big deal people are making out of that play....it's a snap-decision...I still think the guy might have even been out...these kind of things are going to happen on plays like that. It's not like the guy picked up a bunt that was rolling foul while the guy was already standing on first base. It was certainly reasonable for him to try to make that play, even though it didn't work out in the end.

[NorthSideSox72]

We ran statistical calculations until we were blue in the face...projecting this offense.

 

I don't think anyone is really surprised. It's the off performance by Peavy that has everyone the most concerned, although he did bounce back his last start.

So you expected the team to hit .218?

 

[WCSox]

Our entire team is batting .218 and you think all we need is one big bat? I think 9 little bats would help.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The problem is that guys like Pierre, Alexei, and AJ are hitting way below their career averages. Not the presence of Jones and Kotsay in the lineup. This offense would be equally bad with Thome at DH.

 

[Ranger]

So we're back to the slogan "the numbers on the back of a baseball card don't lie?" Awesome, so I guess regressions to PK, Pierre, and AJP shouldn't have been considered due to age and wear and tear. One of the main reasons a lot of us kept clamoring for more talent on offense towards the end of the offseason was because we were relying way too much on "ifs". There was no room for error with the offensive talent on this team, and it's obvious when we try to shake up the lineup and Kotsay ends up batting 3rd.

 

Uh, yeah, we're back to that. You know, where every other baseball team in the world is: the expectation that guys will produce at their norms.

 

Nobody said that regression wouldn't be expected, but the difference between the .277 Konerko hit last year and the .214 he's currently hitting, wouldn't be classified as "regression". That's severe dropoff. Pierre is about 80 points off, AJ is over 100 off. Those guys shouldn't be "if's". They should be considered constants with the likelihood of slight regression. If all of them were batting at least .260 (totally reasonable, and actually, somewhat conservative), the dynamic would be completely different right now.

[Ranger]

Yeah, no kidding. The problem is that guys like Pierre, Alexei, and AJ are hitting way below their career averages. Not the presence of Jones and Kotsay in the lineup. This offense would be equally bad with Thome at DH.

 

Yes, it would.

[Texsox]

Yes, 100%, absolutely.....he and Jose Valentin have been two of the most underrated and underappreciated White Sox players in my lifetime.

 

I would agree they were underappraciated for their baseball abilities, but that 'stash was very much appreciated.

[Texsox]

Uh, yeah, we're back to that. You know, where every other baseball team in the world is: the expectation that guys will produce at their norms.

 

Nobody said that regression wouldn't be expected, but the difference between the .277 Konerko hit last year and the .214 he's currently hitting, wouldn't be classified as "regression". That's severe dropoff. Pierre is about 80 points off, AJ is over 100 off. Those guys shouldn't be "if's". They should be considered constants with the likelihood of slight regression. If all of them were batting at least .260 (totally reasonable, and actually, somewhat conservative), the dynamic would be completely different right now.

 

To continue, with those guys it is reasonable to expect them to finish somewhere close to last year's stats. So a few hot streaks can and should be expected.

[jasonxctf]

Did I really just see a post clamoring for the return of Juan Uribe?

 

its interesting how Uribe's avg goes up 40pts as soon as he leaves Chicago.

[jasonxctf]

its interesting how Uribe's avg goes up 40pts as soon as he leaves Chicago.

 

and how Swishers goes up 30 pts

 

[Ranger]

To continue, with those guys it is reasonable to expect them to finish somewhere close to last year's stats. So a few hot streaks can and should be expected.

 

Of course, we should expect a little bit of decline from those guys, but not a decline like this. The Sox can't win while those 3 guys are hitting around or below .200. They won't be doing that forever.

[Texsox]

its interesting how Uribe's avg goes up 40pts as soon as he leaves Chicago.

 

 

and how Swishers goes up 30 pts

 

I doubt they are on Walker's resume

[Ranger]

and how Swishers goes up 30 pts

 

I can completely understand it. He's an afterthought in that lineup with very little pressure. Here, they asked him to use his high OBP and be a leadoff hitter. He couldn't handle it. In NY, surrounded by that lineup, he could hit .150 and nobody would care.

[Texsox]

I can completely understand it. He's an afterthought in that lineup with very little pressure. Here, they asked him to use his high OBP and be a leadoff hitter. He couldn't handle it. In NY, surrounded by that lineup, he could hit .150 and nobody would care.

 

 

While I generally agree, in NY, they care about everyone. NY fans needs something to b**** about.

[ThunderBolt]

I can completely understand it. He's an afterthought in that lineup with very little pressure. Here, they asked him to use his high OBP and be a leadoff hitter. He couldn't handle it. In NY, surrounded by that lineup, he could hit .150 and nobody would care.

But Swisher did hit, he hit really well, as most people expected him to coming out of his abnormal BABIP season of 2008. I don't think you should write off good performance based on low expectations. I could understand using the argument that his numbers ere enhanced due to the strength of the lineup around him, except last year was not a fluke year for him. It’s fit perfectly into his historical trends. The only outlier on that list? 2008.

[WCSox]

But Swisher did hit, he hit really well, as most people expected him to coming out of his abnormal BABIP season of 2008. I don't think you should write off good performance based on low expectations. I could understand using the argument that his numbers ere enhanced due to the strength of the lineup around him, except last year was not a fluke year for him. It’s fit perfectly into his historical trends. The only outlier on that list? 2008.

 

The fact that Ozzie and Swish didn't get along most likely contributed to it as well. I remember reading rumors about some of the veteran clubhouse guys not appreciating Swisher's lack of maturity either.

 

People who aren't happy at their place of employment tend to not produce as well as those in their own ideal environments. Throw in a guaranteed big-bucks contract, and Swish likely felt little incentive to work hard. Especially when he could get a paid change of scenery by sulking on the bench.

Edited April 20, 2010 by WCSox

[southsider2k5]

its interesting how Uribe's avg goes up 40pts as soon as he leaves Chicago.

 

Its also interesting how guys like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko come here and have incredible years.

[Ranger]

The fact that Ozzie and Swish didn't get along most likely contributed to it as well. I remember reading rumors about some of the veteran clubhouse guys not appreciating Swisher's lack of maturity either.

 

People who aren't happy at their place of employment tend to not produce as well as those in their own ideal environments. Throw in a guaranteed big-bucks contract, and Swish likely felt little incentive to work hard. Especially when he could get a paid change of scenery by sulking on the bench.

 

This is very true.

 

 

Its also interesting how guys like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko come here and have incredible years.

 

For Dye, the best season of his career.

[scenario]

its interesting how Uribe's avg goes up 40pts as soon as he leaves Chicago.

 

I believe it had ALOT to do with him having to scrounge for a job... sign a minor league contract and compete for a utility position just to stick with a team. Amazing how that can cause a player to focus on fundamentals and starting busting his *** again. :0

 

I think Juan got a little too comfortable with his position on the Sox... and his work ethic and stats suffered as a result. So the change actually did him some good.

 

I'm happy for him. Will always be grateful for his contributions in '05.

 

But I have no regrets for cutting him loose.

Edited April 20, 2010 by scenario

[caulfield12]

But, Devil's Advocate, Dye had to play in that cavernous Oakland Coliseum with so much foul ground.

 

What's the park adjustment factor downward for offensive stats there?

 

Dye put up good numbers with the Braves his rookie year and also with the Royals when he was healthy. Just the fact that he was coming of a huge injury and was a "project" at the time we took him doesn't mean he was a bad hitter. Heck, you take any guy who's a better hitter than a defender in the 2nd half of his career, USCF can really make him look good.

 

He led baseball in homers from his position, but he also gave up untold runs with his lack of range and lazy throwing mechanics and "plus arm" that was merely average while we had him. Let's not forget, the best deal he can get now is for $3 million USD. There's a reason for that much bigger than just the second half of one season. Look at the back of his baseball card, Ozzie would say. Well, there's a lot more to it than just hitting homers. Ask the Mariners' GM.

 

 

[jasonxctf]

Its also interesting how guys like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko come here and have incredible years.

 

Konerko became a White Sox in 1999

 

Greg Walker became hitting coach in 2003.