Milkman delivers Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is something you have to play by ear. It's pretty obvious that Danks will finish out the 2011 season on the Sox. Then in the offseason or even during 2012, depending on how he performs in the season and what teams offer for him, you decide if you want to trade him for a package of younger players or let him walk to get the draft picks and free up money to spend in free agency. There's no point in arguing right now about how to get rid of him, as we don't know what the situation will be like after 2011. We have to let this season play out (unless they throw us all a curve and completely suck this year), and go from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Feb 4, 2011 -> 10:19 AM) This is something you have to play by ear. It's pretty obvious that Danks will finish out the 2011 season on the Sox. Then in the offseason or even during 2012, depending on how he performs in the season and what teams offer for him, you decide if you want to trade him for a package of younger players or let him walk to get the draft picks and free up money to spend in free agency. There's no point in arguing right now about how to get rid of him, as we don't know what the situation will be like after 2011. We have to let this season play out (unless they throw us all a curve and completely suck this year), and go from there. If this team bombs 2007 style, I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first guy traded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm pretty sure Danks is gone if we dont trade him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 4, 2011 -> 09:08 AM) Has Kenny ever traded away one of our best players for prospects in an offseason? That seems 100 percent against what he does. I didn't see the word best in here. I was going to bring up the Vazquez example as a highly valued player being traded, but he definitely wasn't one of the Sox best players in 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 3, 2011 -> 02:26 AM) Jon Lester signed his deal after he had a little over 2 years of service time and I don't believe he was even arbitration eligible when he signed the deal. Lester also had cancer, so cashing in when he could was a very good idea. That was also 2 years ago in very different economic circumstances as well. Greinke signed his 4 year extension before he won the Cy Young. That $13.5 million free agent year value is for a player who is a 3.50 ERA pitcher with other potential problems. Beyond that, these players wanted to sign extensions. That's why they did and ended up being signed for a "discount," though given the circumstances of both of them, it was pretty fair value. Danks has proven he's durable, he's good, and he's closer to free agency. He's going to get paid. 4/$40 is not nearly enough. If the Sox want to sign him long term, they are going to have to pay him $15 million value, which would be $51 million over the next 4 years. I think he can get more than that, and I think that he thinks he can get more than that, and I'm about 99.7% sure he can. That BOOM! is a door slamming in the White Sox front office because Barry and Danks won't even think about taking $40 million over 4 years. Randy Wolf got $10 million a year. Do you really think that Randy Wolf and John Danks are comparable pitchers? No but all we know is the sox offered 4 Years and 16M before the 2009 season. They could have offered 5/30 as Lester received, they could have made a 4/50 offer this past offseason, but either they didnt or we havent heard. My point is to say the sox have been trying to sign danks for 2+ years when all we know is that in 2009 he was offered 4/16 is retarded. If they offer him something like you are saying now we can talk and say there is some actualy valuation and negotiation going on. But until, then it doesn not appear that either is trying to figure out a long term deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I could certainly see the Sox offering something in the 12 mill a year range value wise, which would put them in the ballpark of your offer (7.2 in '11, 9.2 in '12, 12 in '13, 12 in '14, which is a total value of $40.4 mill) but as mentioned, it would not be smart for Danks to take that offer because he could almost certainly get two and a half times that amount on the open market assuming he can stay healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxfan101 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 (edited) Yeah I'd be pretty surprised if Danks is still here after he becomes free agency eligible. Whether or not we trade him or let it go all the way to his free agency and risk losing him for draft picks probably depends on how well the team is playing late in his contract. Edited February 5, 2011 by whitesoxfan101 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pale Sox Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 When D1 fired Boras, I thought the Sox would keep him for sure. This is sad to hear. Hopefully we have a great season and Danks signs a reasonable extension amidst the "high" of a successful campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pale Sox Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 (edited) Or here's an idea: "Hey John. We'd really like to extend you. We want to do so at a reasonable cost. We're also not quite sure if your brother is major league calibre CF, or if we should convert him to a LOOGY and start him off in the DSL next season. Anyways, does X amount of dollars seem fair?" Seems like something KW would do. Edit: ROOGY Edited February 5, 2011 by Pale Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 03:05 AM) Or here's an idea: "Hey John. We'd really like to extend you. We want to do so at a reasonable cost. We're also not quite sure if your brother is major league calibre CF, or if we should convert him to a LOOGY and start him off in the DSL next season. Anyways, does X amount of dollars seem fair?" Seems like something KW would do. The idea that he hasn't tried to extend John Danks is just mindboggling. There is a better chance that we pay off the national debt in the next week, than Kenny Williams hasn't tried multiple times to extend John. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 09:12 AM) The idea that he hasn't tried to extend John Danks is just mindboggling. There is a better chance that we pay off the national debt in the next week, than Kenny Williams hasn't tried multiple times to extend John. Considering the thread is titled "Sox have been trying to extend Danks for 2.5 years", that is moderately confusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pale Sox Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 09:12 AM) The idea that he hasn't tried to extend John Danks is just mindboggling. There is a better chance that we pay off the national debt in the next week, than Kenny Williams hasn't tried multiple times to extend John. Where exactly did I say he hadn't tried before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 01:45 PM) Where exactly did I say he hadn't tried before? I was about to ask this on your behalf but didn't because I figured I missed something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) I think this offseason a 4/52 extension would have been fair, $ 7 MM in '11, $12 MM in '12, $16 MM in '13, and $17 MM in '14. Given he stays healthy, He'll still hit FA at 30, while not incredibly young, still average for a ML player, and he'd have more time to prove he's an elite lefty, and probably he could get just as big of a deal then as he would in the 12-13 offseason, granted there is more opportunity to get hurt though. I think if they don't sign him sometime this season, he's gone this offseason. Who's going to be a FA next offseason anyway? Edited February 6, 2011 by Elgin Slim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:05 PM) I think this offseason a 4/52 extension would have been fair, $ 7 MM in '11, $12 MM in '12, $16 MM in '13, and $17 MM in '14. Given he stays healthy, He'll still hit FA at 30, while not incredibly young, still average for a ML player, and he'd have more time to prove he's an elite lefty, and probably he could get just as big of a deal then as he would in the 12-13 offseason, granted there is more opportunity to get hurt though. I think if they don't sign him sometime this season, he's gone this offseason. Who's going to be a FA next offseason anyway? On the White Sox? The big FA next offseason is Mark Buehrle. Other noteworthy names are Juan Pierre and Matt Thornton. If Carlos Quentin has a down season he becomes a DFA candidate. Edwin Jackson is also a FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:05 PM) I think this offseason a 4/52 extension would have been fair, $ 7 MM in '11, $12 MM in '12, $16 MM in '13, and $17 MM in '14. Given he stays healthy, He'll still hit FA at 30, while not incredibly young, still average for a ML player, and he'd have more time to prove he's an elite lefty, and probably he could get just as big of a deal then as he would in the 12-13 offseason, granted there is more opportunity to get hurt though. I think if they don't sign him sometime this season, he's gone this offseason. Who's going to be a FA next offseason anyway? Anyway...that would have been a fair extension, but if you're a player trying to maximize what you guarantee yourself, if you play through the next 2 seasons, you make about $18 million or so, and then you hit the market as a 28 year old and you land $100 million+. If you're trying to maximize your dollars, you don't sign 4/52. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 01:13 PM) Anyway...that would have been a fair extension, but if you're a player trying to maximize what you guarantee yourself, if you play through the next 2 seasons, you make about $18 million or so, and then you hit the market as a 28 year old and you land $100 million+. If you're trying to maximize your dollars, you don't sign 4/52. From a fan's perspective(my previous post was from this perspective as well) I'm arguing that if he stays healthy and continues his upward performance trend, he'd still get a $100 million dollar deal at age 30. Of course the health is a gigantic if. It matters if Danks wants to stay in Chicago or not. I can see where he would not want to sign though, because by all indications the Sox have 2011 and 2012 to win a WS and then the window slams shut. Because of this the Sox are in a bad predicament, with Danks hitting FA right when they are going to start getting old and having problems winning because of the poor farm system. They have to make a choice, do they want to go for it next season, or do they want to trade Danks after this season. If I was him, I wouldn't sign that either, I'd look at this team and want to leave after 2012, because they are probably going to suck for a while from 2013 onward. Edited February 6, 2011 by Elgin Slim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:29 PM) From a fan's perspective(my previous post was from this perspective as well) I'm arguing that if he stays healthy and continues his upward performance trend, he'd still get a $100 million dollar deal at age 30. Of course the health is a gigantic if. It matters if Danks wants to stay in Chicago or not. I can see where he would not want to sign though, because by all indications the Sox have 2011 and 2012 to win a WS and then the window slams shut. Because of this the Sox are in a bad predicament, with Danks hitting FA right when they are going to start getting old and having problems winning because of the poor farm system. They have to make a choice, do they want to go for it next season, or do they want to trade Danks after this season. If I was him, I wouldn't sign that either, I'd look at this team and want to leave after 2012, because they are probably going to suck for a while from 2013 onward. The key flaw is in the "if he stays healthy and continues his upwards performance trend". First of all, not many pitchers stay healthy for their first what, 8-9 seasons? Secondly, almost no pitchers keep doing at age 29-30 what they're doing at 26-27. We can pretend all we want that D1 has other options, but come on...really...he's 2 years away from a $100 million deal. The Sox offered him some guaranteed money a few years ago, and have probably upped their offer every single year. Once he passed on the first offer of security in exchange for a buyout of a FA year or two, it made sense to go for the big money, and that's exactly what he's doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 01:34 PM) The key flaw is in the "if he stays healthy and continues his upwards performance trend". First of all, not many pitchers stay healthy for their first what, 8-9 seasons? Secondly, almost no pitchers keep doing at age 29-30 what they're doing at 26-27. We can pretend all we want that D1 has other options, but come on...really...he's 2 years away from a $100 million deal. The Sox offered him some guaranteed money a few years ago, and have probably upped their offer every single year. Once he passed on the first offer of security in exchange for a buyout of a FA year or two, it made sense to go for the big money, and that's exactly what he's doing. If that is the case, then he should not be in KW's plans for next season. As a matter of fact, they should have traded him this offseason and started Sale in his place, along with picking up someone like Brad Penny for insurance in case Sale couldn't cut it/got hurt because of his funky mechanics or Peavy continues to get injured during this season. By all means, I like the chances of our favorite team this year, but it could all go south if a starter other than Peavy gets injured,(I'm looking at Floyd and Buehrle in particular) and Peavy isn't a decent pitcher anymore. If that is the case, see firesale at the trade deadline and this offseason, with Danks probably the first to go. If the season works out well, I could see KW in a trade target someone like Volquez from the Reds as a replacement for Danks next offseason, using some of the parts that he got in the Danks trade. Edited February 6, 2011 by Elgin Slim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:53 PM) If that is the case, then he should not be in KW's plans for next season. As a matter of fact, they should have traded him this offseason and started Sale in his place You remember how it was reported that KW came to JR at the end of last season and gave him 2 options...pull back, save a bit on salary, and legitimately rebuild, or go "all-in"? That was the decision. Go out and sign Dunn, Konerko, AJ and bullpen help, or let Konerko walk for draft picks, bring up Viciedo to DH/1b, put the rookies out in the bullpen, and trade away Danks and Jackson. Danks is still here because the White Sox expect to compete this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 01:57 PM) You remember how it was reported that KW came to JR at the end of last season and gave him 2 options...pull back, save a bit on salary, and legitimately rebuild, or go "all-in"? That was the decision. Go out and sign Dunn, Konerko, AJ and bullpen help, or let Konerko walk for draft picks, bring up Viciedo to DH/1b, put the rookies out in the bullpen, and trade away Danks and Jackson. Danks is still here because the White Sox expect to compete this season. I understand that. So I guess "All-In" means we're completely going for it for 2 seasons, but after that we're going to suck for a while. I hope they spend more on the draft from 2013 onward so they can rebuild more quickly. I guess the rebuild is coming, they're just putting it off for a couple of years. I hope that they get a first round pick when Danks leaves, though, or that he's not in their plans for next season, and they have a viable replacement. Just another reason why Sale should be starting in AAA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 03:16 PM) I understand that. So I guess "All-In" means we're completely going for it for 2 seasons, but after that we're going to suck for a while. I hope they spend more on the draft from 2013 onward so they can rebuild more quickly. I guess the rebuild is coming, they're just putting it off for a couple of years. I hope that they get a first round pick when Danks leaves, though, or that he's not in their plans for next season, and they have a viable replacement. Just another reason why Sale should be starting in AAA. You know the remarkable thing? The last time the Sox had a complete rebuilding project to do, they pulled it off in the course of 1 season, with basically no minor leagues to boot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyDo Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 04:30 PM) You know the remarkable thing? The last time the Sox had a complete rebuilding project to do, they pulled it off in the course of 1 season, with basically no minor leagues to boot. i hope youre happy, you made andy gonzalez cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 01:57 PM) You remember how it was reported that KW came to JR at the end of last season and gave him 2 options...pull back, save a bit on salary, and legitimately rebuild, or go "all-in"? That was the decision. Go out and sign Dunn, Konerko, AJ and bullpen help, or let Konerko walk for draft picks, bring up Viciedo to DH/1b, put the rookies out in the bullpen, and trade away Danks and Jackson. Danks is still here because the White Sox expect to compete this season. I would also bet if the Sox didn't get Dunn, they wouldn't have spent as much as they did. They probably also let PK walk, and go cheap on the pen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 03:43 PM) I would also bet if the Sox didn't get Dunn, they wouldn't have spent as much as they did. They probably also let PK walk, and go cheap on the pen. I dunno...there were enough DH-types on the market that the Sox could have still fielded a 90+ win, winning team this offseason without Dunn. Dunn was just the best of a number of options, just like last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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