Pitching Depth

[Balta1701]

It would be nice though to have a few at AA that are rising stars, if not contributing this year then ready to make the club next year.

 

Unfortunately, we'll be forced into signing a FA or trading for SP's next offseason, and we all know the price in either route to be ridiculous.

If the Sox win this year, keeping Buehrle is up to him. If Mark decides to call it a career, that's $14 million we have available to fill that spot. Jackson is very likely to be replaced with Sale, and even if they have to bring in a Garland to give them 100 innings along with Sale, it's very do-able with that kind of money.

[The Ginger Kid]

help me out -- in the last 10 years, who's been in our starting rotation that was drafted by the team and came up thru the farm system? And I'm talking legit starters, not those who spot started but those who contributed serious innings pitched. Baldwin, Sirotka, Parque, Biddle, Buehrle, Garland and Richard...am I forgetting someone?

 

That doesn't seem like too many, and certainly not recently. Sox seem to do a decent job with trades for starting pitching, developing other people's talent. Why the fear of imminent disaster? Tsunami fatigue?

[southsider2k5]

help me out -- in the last 10 years, who's been in our starting rotation that was drafted by the team and came up thru the farm system? And I'm talking legit starters, not those who spot started but those who contributed serious innings pitched. Baldwin, Sirotka, Parque, Biddle, Buehrle, Garland and Richard...am I forgetting someone?

 

That doesn't seem like too many, and certainly not recently. Sox seem to do a decent job with trades for starting pitching, developing other people's talent. Why the fear of imminent disaster? Tsunami fatigue?

 

Garland was drafted by the Cubs and traded to us pretty young.

[Balta1701]

If you're counting Richard, you may as well count Gio as well. McCarthy's borderline on the innings thing. Daniel Hudson will move his way onto that list this year.

 

Let's look at this another way...you hold the rights to a starter you promote from AAA for 6-7 years. If you don't resign him, that means a group of 10 starting pitchers developed by your team alone will net you 12-14 years of pitching. If you brought up 1 group of 5 in 2000, didn't resign any of them, you'd need to replace them in 2006-2007, then you'd be fine until 2012-1013.

 

7-10 starting pitchers out of a single system in 10 years covers most of that team's needs for starting pitching.

 

Now of course, we can find ways to play the "Danks and Floyd don't count" game, but then you add in other guys that we drafted and traded away and the fact that occasionally you do extend a guy like Buehrle, and 7-8 young starters over the course of a decade from your minors fills most of your needs until people get hurt.

[The Ginger Kid]

 

Garland was drafted by the Cubs and traded to us pretty young.

 

That's right, forgot about that.

 

7-10 starting pitchers out of a single system in 10 years covers most of that team's needs for starting pitching.

 

That sounds ideal, for sure, but to me that seems more like a mid-market and below strategy for cost control. I wouldn't want the average to above average rotation of the Twins just to be competitive for a division title but not strong enough to go deep into the playoffs. This is not to say that I too would love to see more homegrown pitching talent. Same w/every other team. 1-2 guys in your rotation that came from within seems like a reasonable amount to me.

[witesoxfan]

Man, that would have been sweeeet to draft a starting pitcher w/ our 1st pick last year.

 

They did. It just so happens that he's going to be pitching out of the bullpen this year.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

They did. It just so happens that he's going to be pitching out of the bullpen this year.

 

He is a reliever until we see otherwise.

[bigruss]

I never said that the Sox wouldn't be able to dump contracts, I said they won't get much value in return, thus leaving the team pretty much void of a chance to compete with our current young players just not being enough.

[caulfield12]

But you can also go back and look at how things "appeared" or seemed going into both 2005 and 2008.

 

I don't think many Sox fans would have made large bets that either of those teams were heading for the playoffs. It always seems to be that way with the ALCD, with the exception of the Twins, whenever the Sox, Tigers and Indians have been the prohibitive favorites, they've failed to live up to expectations.

 

As mentioned, besides Peavy and Teahen, there aren't any contracts that are prohibitively untradeable.

 

Of course, they'd have to think long and hard if they wanted to trade an Alexei Ramirez or even a Gavin Floyd, because Quentin/AJ/Rios/Jackson/Buehrle/Danks/Thornton are obviously the players with the most immediate value and/or likely to be dumped to playoff contending teams.

 

What to do with Konerko and Dunn in the case of that major rebuild is yet another question, not sure it makes any sense to hold on to either of those guys if you're not sure about competitiveness until 2014 or 15.

 

It is a bit scary when you look at the minor league depth, or lack thereof. Then again, the ALCD has never been like the AL East, so even if you trotted a team out there with a Milledge or Mitchell, Viciedo, Flowers and Morel....if you could get the starting pitching somehow, anything's possible. It still remains to be seen how strong Mauer/Morneau/Nathan will be in that 2012-2014 timeframe, and Liriano's the only starter over there that scares you, and he will eventually get too expensive for the Twins to risk a long-term contract with his injury history.

 

I guess it all depends on your faith/confidence in KW and the front office in procuring the right talent back in terms of those mid-season dumps. Historically, a lot of them haven't worked out, but you don't have the willingness on the part of JR to take losses throughout an entire season....they'll wait, as usual, until the last possible moment to pull the trigger on acquiring or dumping. Last year, it seems they were so in-between on which way to go that it really kind of bit them in the butt. That and the fact that Manny Ramirez turned out to be a shade of his former self.

 

I, for one, am glad they still have Viciedo. It would be nice to see his develop as a young player at the major league level, rather than watching the Kansas City Royals "retreads mixed with prospects and suspects" approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Our pitching depth will definitely be a huge concern entering 2012. If Jackson and Buehrle both leave we'll have two holes to fill in the rotation. Despite what some people think, I honestly believe Sale can be a solid #5 starter next year. That still would leave one spot to fill though and no internal candidates to fill it. If we're coming off a good 2011, then we can probably afford to fill that spot in free agency. If not, we'll probably be rebuilding anyways.

 

The real question is how likely is it Jackson or Buerhle returns? If one of these guys returns, the depth will much less of an issue. If both guys return, we'll actually have a surplus of starting pitching options for 2012. Now, don't get me wrong, it's very unlikely both guys return. Buerhle obviously seems like the more likely option. However, I could see KW trying to lock up Jackson to an extension during the season. While it's very unlikely due to the Scott Boras factor, he seems like one of those guys who has moved around a lot and may want to stick in one spot for the foreseeable future. If that happens, then the entire situation changes. We'd have no holes in the rotation and the option of bringing Buerhle back. If you bring him back, you'd have the flexibility to trade a starter (Danks if he won't resign, Floyd otherwise) and add a couple of impact minor league arms. We'd actually be in great shape.

 

More realistically, we resign Buerhle to a two year extension and we go with him, Peavy, Floyd, Danks, and Sale in 2012. We most likely lose Danks after the season and have a big hole to fill. The hope by then is that one of Reed, Petricka, Rienzo, etc. can make a Dan Hudson like run through the minors and take the spot. Not sure how likely that is.

 

Regardless, even if we can fill out our rotation with solid pitchers in 2011 and 2012, we'll most likely have no prospects in AAA capable of taking over a spot (and performing well) in the event of an injury during this time span. That will remain a significant risk until it's addressed, but there is no guarantee it will ever affect us. However, with Peavy and Floyd in the rotation, I know I would be a little worried that someone will go down for a period of time. I can't wait to see how KW addresses this situation, because he's got a lot of work ahead of him. At least we're pretty set on the offensive side of the ball, with several young players that we should be able to count on for the next four to five years. That should make fixing the pitching situation a little bit easier for KW.

[caulfield12]

And, there's always the possibility we take another "MLB ready" collegiate pitcher in the draft again...

 

While that won't please the minor league followers, KW has never really cared about ranking our farm system #1. With that full emphasis on the major league club, we'll see how the lack of depth might hamstring him finally if it comes down to a full-scale rebuild. Here's hoping we never have to find out. And wondering if either KW or Ozzie will be around to patiently see it through. Doubtful.

[Chicago White Sox]

And, there's always the possibility we take another "MLB ready" collegiate pitcher in the draft again...

 

While that won't please the minor league followers, KW has never really cared about ranking our farm system #1. With that full emphasis on the major league club, we'll see how the lack of depth might hamstring him finally if it comes down to a full-scale rebuild. Here's hoping we never have to find out. And wondering if either KW or Ozzie will be around to patiently see it through. Doubtful.

I think we're done taking Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch types. However, I do think the Sox will make pitching the focus of their next few drafts. If so, we're more likely to get another Dan Hudson who can move through the system quickly.

 

Also, while I'd love having a #1 system, that's a secondary concern of mine. As long as KW can consistently add young talent to the 25 man roster and have enough in the system to provide some level of depth and acquire help when needed, we'll be in decent shape. I think evaluating an organization strictly by it's minor league system is pretty stupid. Look at the Sox, we have a terrible minor league system, yet have some really nice players on the major league team. Just cause those guys got promoted doesn't mean the organization is weak from a young talent perspective.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I think we're done taking Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch types. However, I do think the Sox will make pitching the focus of their next few drafts. If so, we're more likely to get another Dan Hudson who can move through the system quickly.

 

Well it's going to be much tougher, as we don't have a first round pick this year and only one of the first 60 picks overall. Another Dan Hudson would be nice. But I'm thinking he was more of an outlier.. At least for this franchise.

 

Also, while I'd love having a #1 system, that's a secondary concern of mine. As long as KW can consistently add young talent to the 25 man roster and have enough in the system to provide some level of depth and acquire help when needed, we'll be in decent shape. I think evaluating an organization strictly by it's minor league system is pretty stupid. Look at the Sox, we have a terrible minor league system, yet have some really nice players on the major league team. Just cause those guys got promoted doesn't mean the organization is weak from a young talent perspective.

 

I don't recall anybody ever pining for a #1 ranked farm. But the short-term and even long-term value that comes from being able to consistently produce from within is immeasurable. I'm not saying half the roster has to be homegrown. But they have to get better. A LOT better. The defense was always that none of the guys he traded ever amounted to anything. Well, you started to see some of those guys produce last year. And when the trade deadline came around and it was time to upgrade the pathetic DH situation, KW fell flat on his face. Fortunately, it doesn't appear that a MAJOR need will arise this season unless there's a significant injury. But I wouldn't count on KW being as active come trade time as he has been in the past. Can't really bargain when you have nothing to bargain with.

Edited March 19, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Heads22]

I agree that pitching is going to have to be a major focus. Maybe we'll take a riskier sign with that first pick since we won't have to give out so much money early. Maybe we don't want to spend that money. Who knows. But we need more pitching talent.

[gatnom]

I agree that pitching is going to have to be a major focus. Maybe we'll take a riskier sign with that first pick since we won't have to give out so much money early. Maybe we don't want to spend that money. Who knows. But we need more pitching talent.

 

The one thing I wonder, though, is that they might have "taken" some of the money they would have had to spend on the draft in order to help pay for the extra 25 million they put onto the payroll, knowing they weren't going to have a first round pick.

[caulfield12]

 

 

I don't think you'll see any more of those McCulloch and Broadway types simply because KW has gone back a bit to the "best athlete available/highest upside" theory in the last couple of drafts. Even someone like Poreda, theoretically, if everything came together with his offspeed stuff, had the ability to be more than a back of the rotation starter.

 

I guess when you look back at all those first round busts, for some reason Royce Ring is still the most mystifying and the biggest reach, even moreso than Broadway.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't recall anybody ever pining for a #1 ranked farm. But the short-term and even long-term value that comes from being able to consistently produce from within is immeasurable. I'm not saying half the roster has to be homegrown. But they have to get better. A LOT better. The defense was always that none of the guys he traded ever amounted to anything. Well, you started to see some of those guys produce last year. And when the trade deadline came around and it was time to upgrade the pathetic DH situation, KW fell flat on his face. Fortunately, it doesn't appear that a MAJOR need will arise this season unless there's a significant injury. But I wouldn't count on KW being as active come trade time as he has been in the past. Can't really bargain when you have nothing to bargain with.

No doubt the farm system has to improve. Outside of a handful of prospects, the system is pretty barren. KW has been playing a dangerous game for a while keeping it so thin. He's been forced to make a lot of risky trades to help offset this lack of talent and luckily he's been successful so far. Let's be honest, where would we be right now without the Danks and Floyd deals? The system just couldn't produce guys like that at the time. How often can you trade for arms with that kind of talent and then develop them into above average starting pitchers? At some point, if the system doesn't improve, deals like that won't work out or won't be available and the Sox will not have adequate backup options in our system. That's when we'll really be in trouble.

 

Also, I just see a lot of people who are infatuated with a Royals type system. I see people say, "Watch out, the Royals are going to be really good in a couple of years". Really? Where's all the good young talent on their 25 man roster? Don't get me wrong, they have a lot of nice looking prospects, but those guys are still just prospects. Remember when the Sox had the #1 farm system in baseball? KW was the farm director at the time and put together an "impressive" group of prospects. Almost all of these guys turned out to be complete flops, got injured, or failed to meet expectations. There's no guarantee the Royals system will be any different. Best scenario for them, only some of their elite prospects turn out like Alex Gordon. Even in that case, how long will it take for those guys to develop into quality major league players? Due to the lack of talent on their roster, they got a long road ahead no matter what happens with these prospects.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I don't think you'll see any more of those McCulloch and Broadway types simply because KW has gone back a bit to the "best athlete available/highest upside" theory in the last couple of drafts. Even someone like Poreda, theoretically, if everything came together with his offspeed stuff, had the ability to be more than a back of the rotation starter.

 

I guess when you look back at all those first round busts, for some reason Royce Ring is still the most mystifying and the biggest reach, even moreso than Broadway.

 

Did he have a relative w/ the Sox? Like relative of Jerry Manuel or Kenny or something?

 

EDIT: Apparently it was Bill Simas.

 

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/artic...sp&c_id=cws

 

I just remember being 13 years old and being pissed off the Sox drafted someone who was related to a member of the organization, figuring they probably reached on the pick.

Edited March 19, 2011 by JoeCoolMan24

[Jordan4life_2007]

No doubt the farm system has to improve. Outside of a handful of prospects, the system is pretty barren. KW has been playing a dangerous game for a while keeping it so thin. He's been forced to make a lot of risky trades to help offset this lack of talent and luckily he's been successful so far. Let's be honest, where would we be right now without the Danks and Floyd deals? The system just couldn't produce guys like that at the time. How often can you trade for arms with that kind of talent and then develop them into above average starting pitchers? At some point, if the system doesn't improve, deals like that won't work out or won't be available and the Sox will not have adequate backup options in our system. That's when we'll really be in trouble.

 

I give KW and the FO full credit for both Danks and Floyd. That's the one thing we've been good at. Or at least were good at. Evaluating talent from other teams. But that was 2006. You gotta keep the train movin'.

 

Also, I just see a lot of people who are infatuated with a Royals type system. I see people say, "Watch out, the Royals are going to be really good in a couple of years". Really? Where's all the good young talent on their 25 man roster? Don't get me wrong, they have a lot of nice looking prospects, but those guys are still just prospects. Remember when the Sox had the #1 farm system in baseball? KW was the farm director at the time and put together an "impressive" group of prospects. Almost all of these guys turned out to be complete flops, got injured, or failed to meet expectations. There's no guarantee the Royals system will be any different. Best scenario for them, only some of their elite prospects turn out like Alex Gordon. Even in that case, how long will it take for those guys to develop into quality major league players? Due to the lack of talent on their roster, they got a long road ahead no matter what happens with these prospects.

 

I agree with most of what you say here. An ideal farm is one that you can use as a source of talent infusion for the big league team AND be able to have enough left over to supplement that talent through trades to being in proven players wherever you're lacking. Also, KW played no role whatsoever in our #1 ranking going into 2001. He had only been the GM for a few months prior to that. The Royal are a special case. More than likely all of their top 10-15 guys won't pan out. But they appear to be so deep that if even 6-8 of them do they'll still be in pretty good shape. Elite/premium prospects is what everybody wants, especially me. But organizational depth is also important. We have none of either.

Edited March 19, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree with most of what you say here. An ideal farm is one that you can use as a source of talent infusion for the big league team AND be able to have enough left over to supplement that talent through trades to being in proven players wherever you're lacking. Also, KW played no role whatsoever in our #1 ranking going into 2001. He had only been the GM for a few months prior to that. The Royal are a special case. More than likely all of their top 10-15 guys won't pan out. But they appear to be so deep that if even 6-8 of them do they'll still be in pretty good shape. Elite/premium prospects is what everybody wants, especially me. But organizational depth is also important. We have none of either.

From KW's bio on whitesox.com:

 

Williams served as the club's director of minor league operations from 1995-96 and was promoted to vice president of player development for four additional seasons (1997-2000). Under his direction, the White Sox were named 2000 Organization of the Year by Baseball America, USA Today and Howe SportsData.

 

I'm guessing he played a significant role in our #1 ranking. KW has always known talent. Unfortunately, I feel like politics and organizational philosophy affected our ability to build a strong farm system since he became GM. We will never truly know, but something didn't feel right about Duane Shaffer. Maybe KW influenced him to draft guys like Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch, but I seriously doubt it. I think Shaffer was a Reinsdorf guy and it was hard for KW to get rid of him. Clearly the draft strategy has completely changed to impact/high potential players since Shaffer was dismissed. Also, he's also had to deal with the stupid "won't go over slot slot cause we respect Bud Selig" policy for years now outside. While that may or may not affected him while he was the farm director, it's definitely had an impact this past decade.

 

The other main thing that's screwed KW is the Dave Wilder fiasco. He destroyed our Latin America operations and we're still trying to recover. How can you build a strong farm system when you're handing major bonuses to marginal talents? I've got to be honest, I think that's been the biggest issue for us. At least with the draft, we've been able to get some mid round steals. What impact Latin players have we developed from start to finish since Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee? Unless I'm missing someone totally obvious, the closest thing we may have is Viciedo and I don't know if you can really count him.

 

I honestly believe KW is capable of building a strong system from a talent evaluation standpoint, but his passion for trades will probably prevent it from ever becoming one of the best systems. And I'm completely fine with that. I couldn't stand how Ron Schueler refused to trade his young players for anything, even at the deadline when we clearly needed help. I think if KW is given a couple years, his new draft philosophy and the gradual improvement of our Latin operations will lead to a consistently stronger system. I don't know if it's being discussed or not, but a hard slotting system for the draft in the new CBA would only help our cause, because I doubt Reinsdorf will ever change his stance on going overslot otherwise.

[southsider2k5]

I agree that pitching is going to have to be a major focus. Maybe we'll take a riskier sign with that first pick since we won't have to give out so much money early. Maybe we don't want to spend that money. Who knows. But we need more pitching talent.

 

I'm guessing that the signing budget is going to be sacrificed if attendance isn't good early this year. Even without a top pick, I bet we stay further away from top dollar than usual in exchange for signable picks.