The Physics of Dunn's Swing

[caulfield12]

Depends on what the definition of "is" is. Haha.

[Jordan4life_2007]

You do realize that having a deep and talented farm system helps win, right?? Being able to replenish your team with young cost controlled players allows for bigger extensions or FA signings. Or you could trade prospects for players you want to fill holes (look at the Phillies).

 

We handicap ourselves, whether that's JR or Kenny, we have no one to blame but ourselves. Go overslot, have better draft philosophy, develop better. There are way to many internal problems that hurt the Sox than external. Don't blame draft position, because other teams have shown that they acn have worst draft position than the Sox and succeed leaps and bounds over what the Sox do.

 

And yes, we trade away prospects that go on to succeed, which wouldn't matter if the players we got back in return led us to a freaking playoff appearance (or better).

 

*claps real slow*

 

Don't know how one can look at teams like the Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, and more recently the Rays and Rangers (I can't believe the Rangers got Uehara AND Adams), and not grasp the multiple benefits of a productive farm.

[LVSoxFan]

How about Steve Stone as GM?

[caulfield12]

If we had the players in our system, we would have gotten Miguel Cabrera instead of DET.

 

With Cabrera, we don't need Dunn probably, since Konerko would be at 1B (and some DH). Cabrera getting majority of AB's at DH.

 

Or if we had traded Beckham, we'd have Adrian Gonzalez there now.

 

 

If either of those two things happen, we're leading the AL Central now going away.

 

Last year, you can point quite easily to the Thome swap. Keep him around....deprive him from the Twins when Morneau goes down and they're screwed. They would have had to trade Wilson Ramos for another hitter and then they wouldn't have had a closer down the stretch. Rauch would have been getting battered out there in the 2nd half.

 

Or if we'd kept Chris Young instead of trying to save money on the Javy acquisition (getting money back from the DBacks when we were absolutely FLUSH with cash and season ticket buyers going into 2006), we'd have never needed Alex Rios.

 

Those four things changed the future of this franchise from very bright to pretty so-so.

 

We could have easily survived the Peavy situation if almost any of those four things had happened.

 

Luckily we didn't get Fukudome when we outbid the Cubs for him, or things would have turned out worse (or Hunter, or Rowand). Well....maybe not, because we'd have had a disappointing player instead of still owing Rios $43 million.

 

Edited August 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Ugh.

 

Let's see Theo Epstein or Brian Cashman or Jon Daniels come to a large market city with a payroll generally towards the bottom of the top-10 and build a highly-rated farm system with a minuscule international free agency budget, no ability to participate in the posting process, under orders to stick as close to the slotting system as possible, with a small draft budget overall while picking in the middle or towards the bottom every year, AND with the expectation of contending every single season, AND lacking the financial freedom to offer salary arb each year to a bunch of guys who you don't even want back just for the sake of draft picks.

 

Put those guys in Kenny's shoes and I doubt any do better.

[LVSoxFan]

I don't get all the woe-is-Kenny stuff.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

We offered Danks, Gio, Sweeney, and Fields for Cabrera. At the time we didn't have the bullets, but in hindsight, that would have been a terrific package for Cabrera and one of the few times where a team trading a superstar player could look at the deal and say "we actually didn't get hosed here."

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I don't get all the woe-is-Kenny stuff.

Great argument.

 

Kenny has to operate under completely different conditions than the Red Sox or Yankees do. Phillies as well. Comparing Kenny's situation to the GMs over there is ignorant and stupid.

[caulfield12]

Daniels and Epstein I'd have confidence doing better....he very quickly learned after the Danks/McCarthy fiasco and then Chris Young/Adam Eaton/Adrian Gonzalez/Aki Otuska mess.

 

Trading away Francisco Cordero.

 

He started off looking like one of the worst GM's in major league history and quickly learned on the go...with one of the most interesting "non-baseball" backgrounds ever. Good testament to trust the staff underneath you, instead of trying to micromanage everything yourself, like most super egotistical Beane-like GM's who think they walk on water and can never step in shi- because it simply doesn't exist in their world.

 

 

With our revenue streams, there's no way we couldn't have a comparative level of success with the Giants, Cardinals, Angels, Phillies or Mariners (early 00's).

The Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs, those are unfair comparisons.

And the Rangers not so long ago were technically bankrupt thanks to Tom Hicks risky real estate buyouts and leveraged buyout of soccer teams.

Edited August 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[Jordan4life_2007]

lol

 

I'll be good.

[LVSoxFan]

Kenny has to operate under completely different conditions than the Red Sox or Yankees do. Phillies as well. Comparing Kenny's situation to the GMs over there is ignorant and stupid.

 

I think a few people here have made arguments already.

 

Minnesota and Detroit and Cleveland also operate under conditions different than the Red Sox or Yankees do; in fact, pretty much every club in the U.S. does.

 

But usually when one of those clubs sucks completely, somebody gets fired. That's true in all of sports. Not here apparently. We won't even fire the hitting coach.

 

[bigruss]

Then why aren't the Orioles winning right now?

 

Reality is very different. You plug in young, cost-controlled players who you think the world of and sometimes they become great and help you win. Most of the time they underachieve, often all the way to Japan or the indy leagues. It is pie-in-the-sky to believe that plugging in young players all the time actually works. It does not. Usually you deplete their value letting them struggle in the majors and then you're forced to move them for less and try to bring in a veteran to make up for lost time, and lost ground in the win column.

 

And the poster I was responding to was trying to lay the blame for the farm on Kenny. Kenny isn't the one setting the limits on slot bonuses and draft budgets. He's not the one trying to stick with Selig. And yes, I agree, I'd love to see us play the same game as everyone else, but we're not going to, and that is not Kenny's fault.

 

That doesn't mean I am absolving Kenny of everything. I am not. But he's been the whipping boy this year, and of all the criticism, the only area where I think it is even remotely reasonable to call for his head is in the area of personal ownership and control, and by that I mean he doesn't do what he wants to do all the time. That, however, is what he is paid to do. When he needs to overrule Ozzie he does not.

 

I can see fans wanting to can him for not calling up Viciedo right now or for not firing Greg Walker or Ozzie. It is totally unreasonable OTOH to want to can him for signing Adam Dunn, or for drafting and playing (instead of selling high) on Gordon Beckham, or for taking on the contracts of Rios or Peavy.

There needs to be a balance between effective draft and international signing and development along with good strategy and spending at the MLB level. Otherwise it is very hard to rebuild and remain competitive (as in the Rays losing their best players to FA or having to trade soon bound FA stars because they can't resign them).

 

But teams that draft and develop well and aren't afraid to trade prospects (but also keep a few) are the ones who consistently succeed. Just look at the Phillies, they have acquired some of the best and biggest names out there for prospects the past 2-3 years, but they STILL have the #4 prospect in baseball. They can keep feeding that machine they have at the MLB level with great talent because they have the talent in the minors to trade. Boston is another great example of how to mix trades, FAs, and internally developed players.

 

I actually have acclaimed KW many times for his ability to scout players close to the majors or already in the majors, especially pitchers. He's done some veryyy good low risk/high reward type moves in acquiring these players, but when it comes to getting that superstar or building a consistent winner, well, he's failed.

[southsider2k5]

If we had the players in our system, we would have gotten Miguel Cabrera instead of DET.

 

With Cabrera, we don't need Dunn probably, since Konerko would be at 1B (and some DH). Cabrera getting majority of AB's at DH.

 

Or if we had traded Beckham, we'd have Adrian Gonzalez there now.

 

 

If either of those two things happen, we're leading the AL Central now going away.

 

Last year, you can point quite easily to the Thome swap. Keep him around....deprive him from the Twins when Morneau goes down and they're screwed. They would have had to trade Wilson Ramos for another hitter and then they wouldn't have had a closer down the stretch. Rauch would have been getting battered out there in the 2nd half.

 

Or if we'd kept Chris Young instead of trying to save money on the Javy acquisition (getting money back from the DBacks when we were absolutely FLUSH with cash and season ticket buyers going into 2006), we'd have never needed Alex Rios.

 

Those four things changed the future of this franchise from very bright to pretty so-so.

 

We could have easily survived the Peavy situation if almost any of those four things had happened.

 

Luckily we didn't get Fukudome when we outbid the Cubs for him, or things would have turned out worse (or Hunter, or Rowand). Well....maybe not, because we'd have had a disappointing player instead of still owing Rios $43 million.

 

Dude is also making $19 million a year, which means there is no way we would have spent for an Adam Dunn anyway.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Daniels and Epstein I'd have confidence doing better....he very quickly learned after the Danks/McCarthy fiasco and then Chris Young/Adam Eaton/Adrian Gonzalez/Aki Otuska mess.

 

Trading away Francisco Cordero.

 

He started off looking like one of the worst GM's in major league history and quickly learned on the go...with one of the most interesting "non-baseball" backgrounds ever. Good testament to trust the staff underneath you, instead of trying to micromanage everything yourself, like most super egotistical Beane-like GM's who think they walk on water and can never step in shi- because it simply doesn't exist in their world.

 

 

With our revenue streams, there's no way we couldn't have a comparative level of success with the Giants, Cardinals, Angels, Phillies or Mariners (early 00's).

The Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs, those are unfair comparisons.

And the Rangers not so long ago were technically bankrupt thanks to Tom Hicks risky real estate buyouts and leveraged buyout of soccer teams.

It's interesting you mention the Giants. Sabean made one of the worst deals we have seen with the AJ trade, but he also took a shot on Lincecum not getting hurt, and has made some other very good moves. Rowand and Zito bring that down a bit though. He's had some unfortunate things happen.

 

Disagree completely about the Phillies, 100%, not even close. We'll have have the type of fanbase and support the Phillies have IMO.

 

Cardinals I can see as a good comp. The Angels too, but keep in mind all those division titles along with the WS championship. It took them a while to get where they are now and have been.

 

The main issue is this: some of these teams can go out and spend money to sign highly-touted prospects every international signing period and every amateur draft. The Sox may get a couple "scouting" type cheaper finds internationally which are usually so under the radar they go unreported, and in the amateur draft, they are lucky to get 5 guys who sign above slot, and there may be only one big-time (fallen first round) type of talent in there. When the Red Sox need to trade for an Adrian Gonazlez, their fans understand that the same time a year later their system will contain enough pieces to make another major push for another major star. Sox fans consider themselves lucky to make a major push for a big star, and they know that if they have enough to get it done, they'll be pretty bare for a while to come given a $5-6M total budget for all amateur and international signings over the next period, with most of that going to one first round player.

[caulfield12]

Dude is also making $19 million a year, which means there is no way we would have spent for an Adam Dunn anyway.

 

 

Cabrera>Dunn/Teahen

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

There needs to be a balance between effective draft and international signing and development along with good strategy and spending at the MLB level. Otherwise it is very hard to rebuild and remain competitive (as in the Rays losing their best players to FA or having to trade soon bound FA stars because they can't resign them).

 

I agree completely with this and always have.

 

But teams that draft and develop well and aren't afraid to trade prospects (but also keep a few) are the ones who consistently succeed. Just look at the Phillies, they have acquired some of the best and biggest names out there for prospects the past 2-3 years, but they STILL have the #4 prospect in baseball. They can keep feeding that machine they have at the MLB level with great talent because they have the talent in the minors to trade. Boston is another great example of how to mix trades, FAs, and internally developed players.

 

Again, I agree. I'd do backflips if the Sox would do this.

 

I actually have acclaimed KW many times for his ability to scout players close to the majors or already in the majors, especially pitchers. He's done some veryyy good low risk/high reward type moves in acquiring these players, but when it comes to getting that superstar or building a consistent winner, well, he's failed.

Agree again. Because Kenny works under JR's restrictions we can't expect Kenny to do the same things other teams can. It'll take a brand new CBA with a strict slotting system and a worldwide draft for the playing field to be leveled. If it is, Kenny's pure scouting ability I think will become more apparent, and the results will show themselves on the field.

[southsider2k5]

Cabrera>Dunn/Teahen

 

Thank you Captain Hindsight.

[elrockinMT]

Barry Bonds also was composed more of tetrahydrogestrinone than man.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Thank you Captain Hindsight.

 

No hindsight there. Not landing Miggy due to a pathetic farm system is a permanent black mark (one of many recently) on the organization as a whole.

[caulfield12]

Which we were reminded of again yesterday....by Mr. Miller's ridiculous ecscape-ability to somehow survive against our offense the first 4-5 innings yesterday.

 

As far as Teahen goes, you can't ever find a single positive comment from me on that one.

Greg and I from day one...we both watched him day-in and day-out living in the KC market.

Edited August 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think a few people here have made arguments already.

 

Minnesota and Detroit and Cleveland also operate under conditions different than the Red Sox or Yankees do; in fact, pretty much every club in the U.S. does.

 

But usually when one of those clubs sucks completely, somebody gets fired. That's true in all of sports. Not here apparently. We won't even fire the hitting coach.

I will agree with you there about Kenny's improper amount of trust and confidence in members of his own staff. I've made arguments backing that up, and it has gotten Kenny in trouble many times before, not just this year, and not just with Ozzie.

 

The whole main point of my entire argument here is this: the Kenny hate here is irrational. There are some legitimate areas of concern with Kenny, but the majority of the faults defined are overstated overreactions prompted by perhaps the most talented collection of losers we Sox fans have seen in a long time, if ever. Kenny needs to get better in some areas, definitely, but he has made a lot of great moves, and the moves that are making most fans angry right now are more on the players than anything else. The philosophy behind those moves is sound, even if the moves themselves stink to high hell.

 

This stuff about the farm system is just another example of going overboard with the Kenny hate. When you don't have the money to spend, you simply don't have the money to spend. It has been well-documented on this site for years now the level of frustration that Sox fans have had with the farm system. And it is perfectly fine to fault Kenny for some players, some moves, etc. but when you can't play by the same rules as everyone else it makes it harder to achieve the same level of success as everyone else.

 

And BTW, of all the Sox comps thrown out, the very best one might be the Twins. That, right there, is another low-budget, low-resource, low-leverage situation over there when it comes to stocking up a farm system and then developing good MLB players. We have actually over time produced as much or more impact type talent, but they produce a lot more good players than we do, and if there's some set of standards that we could reasonably be expected to reach given the restraints surrounding us, I'd say it would be the Twins who would set them.

[caulfield12]

Produced? You mean acquired from other organizations or signed like Alexei/Viciedo?

 

Because you can't compare Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones (once a very good player), Garza, Denard Span, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, Wilson Ramos, etc., with what the White Sox have produced from their farm system. Not to mention Santana, the AJ trade, the Eric Milton trade, the Knoblauch trade....all replenishing the farm system with the likes of Bartlett, Punto, Liriano, Nathan, Bonser, etc.

 

From Ordonez/C-Lee/Durham/Buehrle....then Crede/Rowand, it's a barren barren wasteland of destitution and deprivation.

 

 

Impact talent? Under KW? Beckham? Ramirez? Sale? Santos?

Because you can't really count Quentin/Danks/Floyd/Jenks in terms of "producing" them exactly. Not even Santos. And we didn't really develop either Gordon or Chris. They were both with the major league team within a season of being drafted.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2011 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Produced? You mean acquired from other organizations or signed like Alexei/Viciedo?

 

Because you can't compare Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones (once a very good player), Garza, Denard Span, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, Wilson Ramos, etc., with what the White Sox have produced from their farm system. Not to mention Santana, the AJ trade, the Eric Milton trade, the Knoblauch trade....all replenishing the farm system with the likes of Bartlett, Punto, Liriano, Nathan, Bonser, etc.

 

From Ordonez/C-Lee/Durham/Buehrle....then Crede/Rowand, it's a barren barren wasteland of destitution and deprivation.

 

 

Impact talent? Under KW? Beckham? Ramirez? Sale? Santos?

Because you can't really count Quentin/Danks/Floyd/Jenks in terms of "producing" them exactly. Not even Santos. And we didn't really develop either Gordon or Chris. They were both with the major league team within a season of being drafted.

If you're counting Santana for the Twins, then you can also count Quentin, Floyd, Danks, etc.

 

And yes, I am talking about impact talent, not #4 starters or solid starting players. Those are the guys that the Twins have produced where we haven't.

 

I am talking about CLee, Maggs, Konerko (trade, I know), Cameron, Buehrle, Danks, etc. vs. Santana, Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Radke etc. I am talking about young unproven players who were brought into the Major leagues and turned into solid players, because it doesn't matter how you acquire them. Every future Sox player we traded for would have been all over the radars of our scouts and executives since their high school days, so it's not like the Mets are going to draft someone we don't already know about and like, and then we'll trade for him after we find out he's good. And also, when it comes to the impact types, most of the learning they do is going to take place at the MLB level anyway because they're good enough to fly through the system on their own. You don't give the Rangers credit for Danks when he was already a Double A-quality pitcher when they drafted him. You give the Sox credit for nurturing him, Coop for working with him, etc.

[LVSoxFan]

I've always thought our problem was we wobble between trying to be the Twins and trying to be the Yankees.

 

Our bumbling farm system is nothing new; so what happens is that instead of a healthy farm system we end up with a couple of high-priced big names surrounded by a bunch of "projects" and castoffs from other systems/teams.

 

Somehow this worked in 2005 which probably gave KW false hope that he had stumbled onto some magic formula. And here we are.

 

I will say, though that he has a good eye for pitching for the most part.

Edited August 1, 2011 by LVSoxFan

[JohnCangelosi]

He has been back plenty to brag. I don't know how you missed it honestly.

Ok, I missed it. Can you tell me who?