Chuck Garfien ‏ @ChuckGarfien

Saw Nestor Molina pitch today (the guy White Sox traded for Sergio Santos). He's legit.

 

15 starts at Birmingham and then let's talk about bringing him up.

15 starts at Birmingham and then let's talk about bringing him up.

200 more minor league innings and then let's talk about bringing him up.

15 starts at Birmingham and then let's talk about bringing him up.

 

If the kid is ready, he is ready. We don't have to worry about winning this year, so if the kid is going to learn more in Chicago, that is the time he needs to be here.

If the kid is ready, he is ready. We don't have to worry about winning this year, so if the kid is going to learn more in Chicago, that is the time he needs to be here.

 

He has a total of 5 AA starts. I just don't think that's enough no matter what the situation is with the team. And really, it's ridiculous to concede anything at this point.

 

Obviously the Sox have five quality starters on paper right now with Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Sale, and Humber. Molina needs a half year in AA, and you see where the team is in July. If they make a trade, or if somebody gets hurt, maybe Molina is ready to come up then.

200 more minor league innings and then let's talk about bringing him up.

 

Because there is no way he is ready before reaching some magical minor league innings threshold? If he is ready, he is ready, whenever that may be. Look no further than Chris Sale and Sergio Santos

Because there is no way he is ready before reaching some magical minor league innings threshold? If he is ready, he is ready, whenever that may be. Look no further than Chris Sale and Sergio Santos

Yes, let's look at Sale. He threw 150 innings 2 years in a row in college if you count the offseason cape cod league he pitched in, and presumably was a pitcher in high school before that. He piled up more innings in 2 years in college, counting those offseason innings, than Molina has ever thrown. And now, we have no idea if his arm can handle the innings load of being a starter, because he was stuck in the bullpen for 1.5 years.

 

Or let's look at Santos, who was a recent conversion to being a pitcher. By all means let's look at Sergio. He was a newly crowned pitcher, and 2 years in a row, we saw him come out of the gates great, and then fell apart when he started topping out on innings. In 2010, his ERA was above 5 in August and September. In 2011 he put up an ERA of 9.35 in September. Heck, his wearing down late in the season is one of the reasons people gave for why they were willing to trade him.

 

If Molina got 175 minor league innings before making the big leagues I'm not going to be terribly mad. If he got 150, I'll probably start getting mad. 10 starts and 75 innings...bringing him up is a mistake. He's not going to be ready. Even if he is ready, his arm will start tiring out if he's used, and it'll be even worse if he's put in the bullpen or used sporadically to make spot starts. And then the real risk happens...that because you're working him hard, or inconsistently, or pushing him while he's tired, his mechanics start to suffer, and that's it.

 

We've got a lot of pitchers in front of him. He's a long way away. Be patient. An extra 2 months in the minors at the end of this year won't hurt the team that badly, and it could be great for his development.

Yes, let's look at Sale. He threw 150 innings 2 years in a row in college if you count the offseason cape cod league he pitched in, and presumably was a pitcher in high school before that. He piled up more innings in 2 years in college, counting those offseason innings, than Molina has ever thrown. And now, we have no idea if his arm can handle the innings load of being a starter, because he was stuck in the bullpen for 1.5 years.

 

Or let's look at Santos, who was a recent conversion to being a pitcher. By all means let's look at Sergio. He was a newly crowned pitcher, and 2 years in a row, we saw him come out of the gates great, and then fell apart when he started topping out on innings. In 2010, his ERA was above 5 in August and September. In 2011 he put up an ERA of 9.35 in September. Heck, his wearing down late in the season is one of the reasons people gave for why they were willing to trade him.

 

If Molina got 175 minor league innings before making the big leagues I'm not going to be terribly mad. If he got 150, I'll probably start getting mad. 10 starts and 75 innings...bringing him up is a mistake. He's not going to be ready. Even if he is ready, his arm will start tiring out if he's used, and it'll be even worse if he's put in the bullpen or used sporadically to make spot starts. And then the real risk happens...that because you're working him hard, or inconsistently, or pushing him while he's tired, his mechanics start to suffer, and that's it.

 

We've got a lot of pitchers in front of him. He's a long way away. Be patient. An extra 2 months in the minors at the end of this year won't hurt the team that badly, and it could be great for his development.

 

If he's ready for the major leagues, and the team isn't in contention for a playoff spot, and we need pitchers, what is the difference in him pitching 50 innings in the majors as opposed to 50 innings in the minors? If a pitcher is ready, he is ready. There is no magical innings mark that distinguishes it

I looked at myself in the mirror this morning, and I'm here to report that there's no doubt: I'm legit.

If he's ready for the major leagues, and the team isn't in contention for a playoff spot, and we need pitchers, what is the difference in him pitching 50 innings in the majors as opposed to 50 innings in the minors? If a pitcher is ready, he is ready. There is no magical innings mark that distinguishes it

 

And if he is close at all, he is going to be getting the best care and instruction in Chicago, not Charlotte or Birmingham.

If he's ready for the major leagues, and the team isn't in contention for a playoff spot, and we need pitchers, what is the difference in him pitching 50 innings in the majors as opposed to 50 innings in the minors? If a pitcher is ready, he is ready. There is no magical innings mark that distinguishes it

People consistently say there's a huge difference in terms of the effort you're putting into pitches at the MLB level when you have to face major league hitters. That's why people say that having thrown 150 innings in the minors doesn't make you ready to throw 150 in the bigs all the time. Thats why people were concerned enough about Sale's health for him to drop out of the top 5 in the draft despite him having thrown 150 innings 2 years in a row.

 

This guys' arm will benefit from the work at a lower level, and there is a much larger risk than you guys are willing ot admit in pushing him hard. If we were talkign about a guy who had been a high school and college pitcher, or who had been a pitcher since he was 16 in the Jays org, that's one thing, we're not. The fact that he's a converted starter and that he has so few innings on his arm total ought to be the real focus here, because that's what makes pushing htis guy hard so exceptionally risky.

People consistently say there's a huge difference in terms of the effort you're putting into pitches at the MLB level when you have to face major league hitters. That's why people say that having thrown 150 innings in the minors doesn't make you ready to throw 150 in the bigs all the time. Thats why people were concerned enough about Sale's health for him to drop out of the top 5 in the draft despite him having thrown 150 innings 2 years in a row.

 

This guys' arm will benefit from the work at a lower level, and there is a much larger risk than you guys are willing ot admit in pushing him hard. If we were talkign about a guy who had been a high school and college pitcher, or who had been a pitcher since he was 16 in the Jays org, that's one thing, we're not. The fact that he's a converted starter and that he has so few innings on his arm total ought to be the real focus here, because that's what makes pushing htis guy hard so exceptionally risky.

 

The perceived bonus demands were the big problem that made Chris fall.

The perceived bonus demands were the big problem that made Chris fall.

Really? I neither recall that nor believe that honestly, since the White Sox aren't exactly known for picking guys with big bonus demands, and a lot of teams above us who needed pitching do have a habit of going over slot. A whole lot of people thought the Royals would take him at 4, IIRC. Putting Sale in the bigs his first year wouldn't exactly cover for much of the big bonus issue.

 

It's also not hard to find scouting reports from the 2010 draft saying that if he drops its because of his arm motion.

Up until now the picture of Sale’s prospects has been pretty rosy. A team looking to draft him in the top 10 is likely relying on his stuff/production combo. Those who rank Sale lower, will do so predominately because of concerns about his throwing motion.

Keith Law, btw, has also never liked him. Same reason.

If you like Chris Sale, you see a 6'6" left-hander with an arm slot close to Randy Johnson's, a plus fastball and change, and a potential front-line starter. If you're a skeptic, you see a sidearming lefthander without an average breaking ball and a long arm action that will be tough to repeat 100-plus times an outing. I'm more in the latter camp than the former, and I think Sale's pro future is reasonably likely to come in the bullpen.

 

He'll sit 92-93 as a starter and has touched 96 a handful of times this spring, with good sink on the pitch that comes from the low slot, helping him generate groundballs. He turns his low-80s changeup over well, surprising given his arm slot, but it's more of an action change that relies on its downward movement and big-league hitters will lay off it when it's out of the zone. He's thrown a loopy curveball and a harder slider, with a better chance to make the slider work from that low slot, but neither is an average pitch and he primarily works with the fastball and change.

 

His arm action is ugly, long and complex in the back with a high elbow, and he drifts forward in a crouch more commonly seen on sidearmers and submariners. If I did draft him, I'd see if I could raise his slot just enough to get him better angle on the slider and get him to take advantage of his height. His current delivery, slot, and repertoire make him look a lot like a reliever to me.

Really? I neither recall that nor believe that honestly, since the White Sox aren't exactly known for picking guys with big bonus demands, and a lot of teams above us who needed pitching do have a habit of going over slot. A whole lot of people thought the Royals would take him at 4, IIRC. Putting Sale in the bigs his first year wouldn't exactly cover for much of the big bonus issue.

 

It's also not hard to find scouting reports from the 2010 draft saying that if he drops its because of his arm motion.

 

Keith Law, btw, has also never liked him. Same reason.

 

Well how about starting with that one blog that talks about Sox minor league guys....

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2010/...on-1-656m-deal/

 

Sale had been expected to receive a much larger bonus than $1.656m, with some even throwing Jered Weaver money around from when he signed with the Angels in 2004 ($4m bonus). That was thought to be one of the reasons why Sale slid in the draft, along with potentially worrisome mechanics, although he does repeat his delivery very well, which is usually a key to staying healthy.

ESPN Chicago ‏ @ESPNChiSox

Ventura said he's leaning toward Viciedo in left field, but nothing etched in stone.

 

Mark Gonzales ‏ @MDGonzales

RV also said he won't ban alcohol in the clubhouse but understands Bobby V.'s decision to ban it.

 

Scott Merkin ‏ @scottmerkin

Chris Sale's first Cactus League start will be March 9 at home against the Cubs. Ventura will give the other four in next few days

 

Ventura will use Thornton, Crain or whomever is closing in 9th later in camp but not in early games

Really? I neither recall that nor believe that honestly, since the White Sox aren't exactly known for picking guys with big bonus demands, and a lot of teams above us who needed pitching do have a habit of going over slot. A whole lot of people thought the Royals would take him at 4, IIRC. Putting Sale in the bigs his first year wouldn't exactly cover for much of the big bonus issue.

 

It's also not hard to find scouting reports from the 2010 draft saying that if he drops its because of his arm motion.

 

Keith Law, btw, has also never liked him. Same reason.

Mike is absolutely right about that. Sale was the 2nd ranked pitcher in the class IIRC, and was rated 4th overall. He fell to 13 because of signing/money reasons but the White Sox negotiated with him by promising him major league time right away.

Really? I neither recall that nor believe that honestly, since the White Sox aren't exactly known for picking guys with big bonus demands, and a lot of teams above us who needed pitching do have a habit of going over slot. A whole lot of people thought the Royals would take him at 4, IIRC. Putting Sale in the bigs his first year wouldn't exactly cover for much of the big bonus issue.

 

It's also not hard to find scouting reports from the 2010 draft saying that if he drops its because of his arm motion.

 

Keith Law, btw, has also never liked him. Same reason.

Sale signed for a lower price because he wanted to get to the majors quicker and the Sox offered him that option. He was expected to command more money. Whether he dropped in the draft because of those demands, I don't know, but he had thrown out a feeler of a much larger number.

Chuck Garfien ‏ @ChuckGarfien

Saw Nestor Molina pitch today (the guy White Sox traded for Sergio Santos). He's legit.

Lord knows Garfien is at the top of the scouting profession.

People consistently say there's a huge difference in terms of the effort you're putting into pitches at the MLB level when you have to face major league hitters. That's why people say that having thrown 150 innings in the minors doesn't make you ready to throw 150 in the bigs all the time. Thats why people were concerned enough about Sale's health for him to drop out of the top 5 in the draft despite him having thrown 150 innings 2 years in a row.

 

This guys' arm will benefit from the work at a lower level, and there is a much larger risk than you guys are willing ot admit in pushing him hard. If we were talkign about a guy who had been a high school and college pitcher, or who had been a pitcher since he was 16 in the Jays org, that's one thing, we're not. The fact that he's a converted starter and that he has so few innings on his arm total ought to be the real focus here, because that's what makes pushing htis guy hard so exceptionally risky.

While the current administration seems to have difficulty developing hitters, I think they've done a pretty good job with pitchers. Since I haven't seen him pitch or know anyone who has seen him pitch, if they deem him ready to come to the majors, I will agree.

 

It wasn't the innings he threw in college, it was his motion with the high elbow and quick external rotation that made people worry about him. He's similar to Strasburg in that way but he has a lower arm slot so the wear and tear will be interesting.

Edited February 29, 201214 yr by ptatc

It wasn't the innings he threw in college, it was his motion with the high elbow and quick external rotation that made people worry about him. He's similar to Strasburg in that way but he has a lower arm slot so the wear and tear will be interesting.

I said "Despite" him throwing 150 innings 2 years in a row...the "Throwing 150 innings" would still give people some confidence that he could stay healthy.

I was a bit surprised by this. Apparently, Spring Training ticket sales for the Sox are up 15% over last year.

 

Possible factors include price changes and changes to the schedule. Maybe the economy is better as well.

 

I was a bit surprised by this. Apparently, Spring Training ticket sales for the Sox are up 15% over last year.

 

Possible factors include price changes and changes to the schedule. Maybe the economy is better as well.

 

Maybe because they now might get to see a win...

ESPN Chicago ‏ @ESPNChiSox

Ventura said he's leaning toward Viciedo in left field, but nothing etched in stone.

 

No Robin, just, no.

Chuck Garfien ‏ @ChuckGarfien

Ventura says that Nestor Molina looks "great" but cautions that how he does in games will dictate where ends up.

Scott Merkin ‏ @scottmerkin

Don't completely rule out Nestor Molina for a bullpen job, although he really would have to be dominant over next month

Scott Merkin ‏ @scottmerkin

Don't completely rule out Nestor Molina for a bullpen job, although he really would have to be dominant over next month

 

No.