It's really not that hard to envision a path for how the Sox get to 95ish losses from last year.

 

Lose Buehrle, lose Quentin, lose Santos. Between them, that's ~10 wins if you're going by WAR. That takes a 78 win team down to a ~68 win team. You're right there already. Now, just have most of the people repeat last year's numbers. Some people are likely to improve, it'd be hard for De Aza to be as bad as Pierre, but then if you finally have PK14 start showing his age and either get hurt for 1/2 the year or only hit 18 home runs, the team is literally right there.

 

The place we're starting from is ~70 wins if everyone does what they did last year. The list of guys who can improve on that is long, but you can raise a question on almost all of them.

I see your point, and I guess I see SI's logic for a 95 loss season. However, the fillers for Buehrle (Sale), Santos (?), and Quentin (Viciedo) are unknowns. Saying you right away count the loss of those three guys as -10 wins is discounting anything their replacements bring to the table. And then you assume Rios, Dunn, and Beckham don't improve at all. To me it seems like a lazy prediction. So if the Sox had won 84 games last season, SI would predict 71 wins for 2012?

72-90...with the lack of depth in the minors, if KW starts selling during the year on guys like Floyd/AJ/Thornton, it's going to get really ugly

72-90...with the lack of depth in the minors, if KW starts selling during the year on guys like Floyd/AJ/Thornton, it's going to get really ugly

Well, there's one of the bottom 2, will the other step forward?

72-90...with the lack of depth in the minors, if KW starts selling during the year on guys like Floyd/AJ/Thornton, it's going to get really ugly

He's only going to "sell" if the team is out of the race at the ASB. And in that case, pretty sure everyone here would agree with him doing it, even if it does mean an ugly 2nd half.

 

Also wanted to add... I really don't seen any good teams in this division outside Detroit. I look at Cleveland and Minnesota, and in my view, this Sox team is clearly better going into Opening Day. Kansas City is a mystery, it all depends on their pitching, but I think I give the Sox the nod over them too. To me, the Sox look like the 2nd best team going in. Though I will say that Detroit has a BIG edge.

 

82-85 like most everyone else. Second, if I had to pick over under that range, I am slightly optimistic and believe they could better that.

As of now this team seems to be a slightly below .500 team, but with the state of the AL Central I'll go 82-85. If that's the case, at least the season should be interesting til the end.

I'm going with 90-94. If the offense picks it up from last year, which I think they will do thanks to Morel, De Aza and Dunn, then we will finally get to showcase what a great pitching staff we have. Those 5 guys are going to keep us in every game. Plus we will more than likely tear through the NL as we have a soft interleague schedule. We're pretty well-rounded. 90-94 Division Champs.

If I had to choose, I'd pick 78-81, but I could see this team winning as few as 70-73 and as many as 90-94. I don't think they'll win or lose 95 games though. They are not that good/bad.

Edited March 29, 201214 yr by Elgin Slim

That is a pretty nice bell curve formed around the low to mid 80's.

I predict I'm going to like watching this team more than I don't like watching them.

Based on promising Springs by Dunn and Peavy, I've upped my prediction to about 85 wins.

I'm optimistic that we'll have a better record against the Central than in recent years. I think our rotation is the 2nd best in the division.

I'm optimistic that we'll have a better record against the Central than in recent years. I think our rotation is the 2nd best in the division.

I think the sox rotation is the best in the division but their offense makes them a likely second place team. Still I am hopeful that I am wrong about the offense.

Let's hope for the high 80's in wins and hope the other teams struggle. Not sure what to expect, let's just get it going.

72-90

Team is better than anticipated out of the gate, but struggles to contend in AL Central. KW trades overachieving parts at trade deadline for younger talent and Sox slide in second half of season.

 

 

An interesting preseason MGR of YR prediction...

 

Jon Morosi ‏ @jonmorosi

AL Manager: Robin Ventura, #WhiteSox. NL Manager: Don Mattingly, #Dodgers.

An interesting preseason MGR of YR prediction...

 

Jon Morosi ‏ @jonmorosi

AL Manager: Robin Ventura, #WhiteSox. NL Manager: Don Mattingly, #Dodgers.

Makes some sense...if the team wins 85 games, which is probably margin of error even for my guess...then they'll have drastically outperformed almost everyone's expectations, which is usually big for a MOY award.

Makes some sense...if the team wins 85 games, which is probably margin of error even for my guess...then they'll have drastically outperformed almost everyone's expectations, which is usually big for a MOY award.

 

And teams like New York, Detroit, LA, & Texas all have such high expectations already, it's harder for their managers to win the award.

Voted for 70-73 just to be a jerkoff, but more realistically, I can see them winning upwards of 80. After all, we get to play KC, CLE, and MIN a s***load of times. We could be the best looking ugly chick of the bunch, so to speak. The Maya Rudolph of the AL Central.

Wow. 75% of the people on here think the Sox will finish over .500.

 

Incredible. I thought I was high back in college.

Wow. 75% of the people on here think the Sox will finish over .500.

 

Incredible. I thought I was high back in college.

 

Any reason you needed a second account to post that Randy?

^^lol.

 

 

I am more hoping that they finish where I voted. I see no reason it can't happen.

Also wanted to add... I really don't seen any good teams in this division outside Detroit. I look at Cleveland and Minnesota, and in my view, this Sox team is clearly better going into Opening Day. Kansas City is a mystery, it all depends on their pitching, but I think I give the Sox the nod over them too. To me, the Sox look like the 2nd best team going in. Though I will say that Detroit has a BIG edge.

 

The only way to get to the playoffs in the central is to win the division.

These wildcards will never come from the central.

The Sox will not win their division and they have zero hope for a playoff spot because there are at least 5 teams in the AL better than them.

This is the new reality we'll have to deal with for a long, long time.

 

Reinsdorf will never out spend the Detroit owner, period.

 

Detroit will however have to slug their way to most of their victories because their defense will be atrocious.

Their pitching outside of Velander is nothing to write home about either.

But unfortunately, they are still head and shoulders above their rivals in the central.

Andi it could stay that way because they have a sportsman for an owner who doesn't have to rely on the team for his own economic survival.

It will take a cataclysmic breakdown in Detroit for the Sox to ever see the playoffs in the foreseeable future.

 

I use to love Opening Day!

Edited April 6, 201213 yr by mcgrad70