82.3 + 21.6 = 103. 9?

 

Those are the percentages to make the playoffs via AL Central or Wild Card.

 

For the division, Sox are at 81.6 (82.3-0.7) and Tigers are at 18.4 (21.6-3.2)

82.3 + 21.6 = 103. 9?

 

That includes the division and wildcard. So there's a 3.9% chance both make it.

 

Coolstandings has the Sox at 84.4% to win the division.

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_stan...sn=2012&i=1

Those are the percentages to make the playoffs via AL Central or Wild Card.

 

For the division, Sox are at 81.6 (82.3-0.7) and Tigers are at 18.4 (21.6-3.2)

 

But the East and West add to 100, and there's a separate WC section below, no?

82.3 + 21.6 = 103. 9?

 

Sorry, I copied the overall playoff odds where I meant to put division odds. It's fixed now.

As of now the seeding

 

Wildcard: Baltimore #5 at Oakland #4

 

Wildcard winner vs. Texas #1

WHITE SOX #3 at New York #2

 

WHITE SOX are 3 games out from #2 seed

And 7 games out from #1 seed

 

#2 seed is where it is at. #1 seed has to play first two

Games of Alds on the road.

Might not be bad being the 3-seed. Sale and Peavy pitching at home against the Orioles or Yankees. I'd take that.

As of now the seeding

 

Wildcard: Baltimore #5 at Oakland #4

 

Wildcard winner vs. Texas #1

WHITE SOX #3 at New York #2

 

WHITE SOX are 3 games out from #2 seed

And 7 games out from #1 seed

 

#2 seed is where it is at. #1 seed has to play first two

Games of Alds on the road.

 

Doesn't #2 seed also start the ALDS on the road? I thought that the team with home-field advantage now plays games 1-2 on the road and 3-5 at home.

Yup, you wanna be #3 seed, face the Yankees at home IMHO.

Tampa Bay 6 GB in division and wild-card. Done?

Yup, you wanna be #3 seed, face the Yankees at home IMHO.

 

I'd rather take the Rangers. Sox have had their number this year, partially because Washington angered AJ.

AL Best Record/AL West:

 

Texas

Oakland -3

 

AL Central:

 

SOX

Detroit -3

 

AL East:

 

Baltimore

NY Yankees

 

AL Wild Card:

 

Oakland +½

Baltimore/NY Yankees

LA Angels -3

Detroit -5½

 

9/19 Games:

 

TOR @ NYY 1:05, 7:05

OAK @ DET 7:00 ESPN

SOX @ KC 8:10

TEX @ LAA 10:00 ESPN

BAL @ SEA 10:10

Edited September 20, 201213 yr by HickoryHuskers

Updated Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report.

 

AL Central: Sox 81.9%, Detroit 18.1%

AL East: Yankees 72.1%, Baltimore 27.9%

AL West: Texas 88.0%, Oakland 10.5%, Angels 1.5%

 

Wild Card: Oakland 71.6%, Baltimore 49.6%, Angels 32.7%, Yankees 23.2%, Texas 11.8%, Detroit 6.0%, Tampa Bay 4.0%, Sox 1.1%

 

One-day total (Div+WC) percentage changes:

 

Angels +4.5%

Baltimore +4.4%

Detroit +2.8%

Sox +0.8%

Texas -0.2%

Yankees -0.8%

Tampa Bay -3.9%

Oakland -7.6%

s***, didn't realize we were only two games behind the Yankees. I'm planning my schedule on us being the #3 seed (in which case we'd host Games 1 and 2 on Saturday and Sunday of Columbus Day weekend).

s***, didn't realize we were only two games behind the Yankees. I'm planning my schedule on us being the #3 seed (in which case we'd host Games 1 and 2 on Saturday and Sunday of Columbus Day weekend).

 

Yankees have a double header today.

Yankees have a double header today.

 

That's right.

 

I'm doubly rooting for the Yankees to take the division and be the 2 seed--one of my best friends is a big Yankees fan so we're planning on getting him a ticket for the second Sox ALDS home game as well.

Yankees win both games today, pressure on the O's who face King Felix tonight.

 

CJ Wilson can't make it out of the 3rd inning as his team is trailing 0-3. Wilson pulled.

Let's play the What If game....

If, as expected, Guthrie handcuffs the Sox tomorrow and we get shut out a second day in a row, and if Detroit wins and they are one out ... do you think the Tigers are locks to win the division considering their easy schedule compared to the Sox the rest of the way? Will you be alarmed if it's one game after tomorrow?

Let's play the What If game....

If, as expected, Guthrie handcuffs the Sox tomorrow and we get shut out a second day in a row, and if Detroit wins and they are one out ... do you think the Tigers are locks to win the division considering their easy schedule compared to the Sox the rest of the way? Will you be alarmed if it's one game after tomorrow?

 

Alarmed yes, Detroit a lock? By no means. Detroit goes to play on the road then and they are a very mediocre road team.

 

With that said, win tomorrow and go A's.

 

EDIT: Now that I look at schedule Detroit has 8 straight at home still before they hit the road. Sox wanna be at least 2 games with 6 to go.

Edited September 20, 201213 yr by justBLAZE

Alarmed yes, Detroit a lock? By no means. Detroit goes to play on the road then and they are a very mediocre road team.

 

With that said, win tomorrow and go A's.

 

Those playoff percentage stats piss me off. They mean nothing. So Sox were 80 percent a day ago? What if Detroit is one-game out after tomorrow? Is Detroit suddenly 50 percent and Sox 50?

Those playoff percentage stats piss me off. They mean nothing. So Sox were 80 percent a day ago? What if Detroit is one-game out after tomorrow? Is Detroit suddenly 50 percent and Sox 50?

 

Playoff percentages are bulls*** IMHO. They go exactly how you described. I dont look at them at all.

Let's play the What If game....

If, as expected, Guthrie handcuffs the Sox tomorrow and we get shut out a second day in a row, and if Detroit wins and they are one out ... do you think the Tigers are locks to win the division considering their easy schedule compared to the Sox the rest of the way? Will you be alarmed if it's one game after tomorrow?

 

 

What exactly about Detroits play this season makes you believe it's all going to suddenly click when it's hasn't ALL YEAR?

 

All those years when the Sox had more talent but were always chasing the Twins, why didn't the talent overcome then? Why is Detroit somehow special?

 

The Story of the Central in 2012 is this:

 

Sox can't beat Detroit or KC but they have beaten everyone else. (69-43 against everyone else)

Detroit owns the Sox but is inconsistent against everyone else. (67-63 against everyone else)

 

After tomorrow the Sox play everyone else. Detroit plays everyone else too. Sox are ahead so, as far as I'm concerned that's where they'll stay.

 

 

Edited September 20, 201213 yr by Cali

Essentially, the White Sox are basically .500 against the Tigers/Royals/Twins.

 

and 13-14 games over .500 against the rest of baseball.

 

Another way of looking at it. The problem is that we're facing a hot and desperate Angels team, on the road, with two of their better pitchers going. Meanwhile, the Tigers face the absymal Royals at home.

 

Best case scenario, we're looking at probably losing another game in the standings there. And we've got the pesky Rays still, with Price still possibly in their rotation down the stretch to clinch the Cy Young.

 

DET has 8 more home games in a row, where they're almost impossible to beat. And they've survived the injury to Max Scherzer and still ended up winning that game

 

 

Essentially, the White Sox are basically .500 against the Tigers/Royals/Twins.

 

and 13-14 games over .500 against the rest of baseball.

 

Another way of looking at it. The problem is that we're facing a hot and desperate Angels team, on the road, with two of their better pitchers going. Meanwhile, the Tigers face the absymal Royals at home.

 

Best case scenario, we're looking at probably losing another game in the standings there. And we've got the pesky Rays still, with Price still possibly in their rotation down the stretch to clinch the Cy Young.

 

DET has 8 more home games in a row, where they're almost impossible to beat. And they've survived the injury to Max Scherzer and still ended up winning that game

 

I don't think KC will lay down and die for Detroit. They are gonna relish the spoiler roll. Don't forget last time out KC swept the Tigers.

 

What exactly about Detroits play this season makes you believe it's all going to suddenly click when it's hasn't ALL YEAR?

 

All those years when the Sox had more talent but were always chasing the Twins, why didn't the talent overcome then? Why is Detroit somehow special?

 

The Story of the Central in 2012 is this:

 

Sox can't beat Detroit or KC but they have beaten everyone else. (69-43 against everyone else)

Detroit owns the Sox but is inconsistent against everyone else. (67-63 against everyone else)

 

After tomorrow the Sox play everyone else. Detroit plays everyone else too. Sox are ahead so, as far as I'm concerned that's where they'll stay.

 

I just have this gut feeling that the Sox are the ones to lead all season and Detroit, the overwhelming favorite to start the season, will sweep past us at the end laughing all the way. I just picture it for some reason.

LOL, I wonder why???